Big 12-When they lose their 2 top teams, they will grab the best 6 schools from BYU, AAC and MWC to go to 14. 8 if they go to 16.
Big 10 have eyes on ACC, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. They gave up on anderbilt and Missouri. Big 12 could lose 2 to 3 schools to either Big 10, SEC or ACC. I do not see West Virginia going anywhere in the near future. PAC 12 will lose out on the bidding war again. The Big 12 as a compromise with the big 3 schools leaving could still be a P5 to avoid the little brother syndrome.
AAC could actually lose between 4 to 6 schools. They already have eyes on UMass., Southern Miss. and ODU and non-football schools of VCU and Dayton. UTSA, Rice, UAB, FIU, Georgia State, Charlotte, Toledo, Northern Illinois and Ohio U. all could be targets along with Buffalo. Houston, Memphis, UCF, USF, Tulane, Cincinnati and Temple all could be the lucky ones in upgrading.
C-USA could actually need to replenish since they could also lose UTEP to the MWC. They could lose 6 schools. Arkansas State, Georgia State, Texas State, South Alabama and La.-Lafayette from the SBC, New Mexico State, and Missouri State and James Madison from FCS could be the lucky ones.
MAC could lose 3 schools. They could add Youngstown State, Illinois State, Indiana State, James Madison, Stony Brook and Delaware are targets.
MWC could lose Boise State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Air Force, Fresno State and Colorado State. If they have to expand? They could be in danger of sponsoring football. Likely targets? UTEP, Sacramento State, UC-Davis, Cal.-Poly, Eastern Washington, Idaho, Montana, Montana State, NDSU and SDSU could be options. I left Portland State out, because they may drop football in the future. The pro-soccer team owner is putting in a new turf and could say that he does not want football players tearing up the turf. Portland State right now are looking for a new home for their team. Possibly playing at a high school stadium.
PAC 12 losing out to get the best teams, they are not interested in the rest of the Big 12. They would look at the MWC schools. They already said they are impressed by the growth of Boise State and San Diego State. Adding those 2 crown jewels from the MWC could help boast their football and basketball. Hawaii, UNR, New Mexico and Colorado State have the academics for PAC 12 in the future.
SBC could lose Georgia State, South Alabama, La.-Lafayette, Arkansas State and Texas State. The schools that would be left for them to get back to FBS football conference need to add warm bodies. Jacksonville State, Kennessaw State, North Alabama, Mercer, Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Liberty, Florida A&M, UNF if they add football, Jackson State, Tennessee State,North Carolina A&T, UCA, McNeese State, Lamar, Sam Houston State and SFA. Northern Iowa might call for a football only invite like UMass. did with the MAC.
Big Sky could add Central Washington as number 12 member of the conference. Big Sky would also be in trouble if they lose some schools to the MWC. They could look at Western Oregon, Colorado Mesa, CSU-Peublo, Azusa Pacific and Dixie State. 4 to 6 teams lost.
CAA is at 10. You have James Madison and Delaware flirting FBS and Towson may follow them. William & Mary could go to Patriot League. That will leave them at 6. 4 teams moving.

MVFC and MVC are both at 10. The MVC could lose Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, and Indiana State. The football would be down with 5 maybe 4 if Youngstown State gets invited for the MAC. MVFC lose 6, MVC lose 4.

NEC 10 could lose 2

MEAC 12 could lose 4

OVC 12 could lose 3

Patriot League is at 9. Fordham could be aiming higher in the future. They do need to find more full sports members. lose 1

Pioneer is at 10. Dayton might go to full scholarship in the future. lose 1

Southern Conferenceis at 9. lose 3

Southland is at 11 football, 13 all sport. lose 5

SWAC 10 lose 1

AEC 9 could lose 3 schools.

A-Sun 9 could lose 3

A-10 14 could lose 6

Big East 10

Big West 12 could lose 2

Horizon League 10 could lose 4

MAAC 11 could lose 1

Summit 9 could lose 3

WCC 10 could lose 3

WAC 8 could lose 5

That would open spots up for D2 schools in the areas that are needed. The Minnesota schools and Augustana could go to the Summit while some others could go elsewhere. I have looked up schools that are large enough to be D1 and where they can go.

20,000+
San Francisco State 29,905 Big West/WAC
Cal.-Poly-Pomona 22,155 Big West/WAC
CSU-L.A. 21,051 Big West/WAC
Wayne State, Michigan 27,298 Horizon League
Grand alley State 25,460 Horizon League
Simon Fraser 35,604 Big Sky
Alaska combined 25,000 + WAC
Metro State 24,000 WAC
Nova Southeastern 24,148 A-Sun

10,000+
CSU-San Bernardino 17,056 Big West/WAC
CSU-Dominguez Hills 14,670 Big West/WAC
Chico State 16,356 Big West/WAC
CSU-East Bay 14,526 Big West/WAC
Queens, NY 17,639 AEC, MAAC
NY Tech 12,755 AEC/MAAC
Mercy 10,000 NEC
Arkansas Tech 12,009 Southland
Purdue U.-Northwest 15,286 Horizon
Ferris State 14,187 Horizon
UMSL 17,014 Horizon/OVC
Western Washington 13,070 WAC
Central Washington 10,145 Big Sky
Valdosta State 12,898 A-SUN/Big South football or Southern Conference
West Florida 12,823 A-Sun/Big SouthF
West Georgia 11,252 ASun/Big SouthF
Tarleton State 13,020 Southland/WAC
Commerce 12,003 Southland/WAC
Angelo State 10,447 Southland/WAC
West Texas A&M WAC
Central Oklahoma 16,428 Southland
Fort Hays State 14,658 Summit
Central Missouri 14,148 Summit
Pace 12,772 AEC/MAAC
Southern Conn. State 12,326 NEC
Southern New Hampshire 11,253 NEC
Minnesota State-Mankato 15,165 Summit
St. Cloud State 15,092 Summit
Minn.-Duluth 11,018 Summit
Academy of Art (for profit) 16,000 WAC
North Georgia 18,782 A-Sun
West Chester 16,426 AEC/MAAC
Indiana, Pa. 14,638 AEC/MAAC
Kutztown 10,638 AEC/MAAC
Colorado Mesa 11,000 Big Sky
Colorado-Colorado Springs 10,300 WAC
Dixie State 10,000 Big Sky

Large privates or key schools.
LIU-Post 8472 could merge their sports into 1 with LIU-Brooklyn. Football would still be played on the Post campus.
Harding 6009 Southland
Davenport 7594 Horizon
Southern Indiana 9024 OVC
Maryville 6838 Horizon
Lindenwood 9357 Horizon
Adelphi 8110 AEC/MAAC
New Haven 6400 NEC
Winona State 8126 Summit
Hawaii Pacific 9000 big West
Azusa Pacific Big West or WAC/Big SkyF
Columbus State 8597 ASun
Augusta 6,000 ASun
Bloomsburg 9512 MAAC
Barry 9030 ASun
Tampa 7600 ASun
Florida Tech 6451 ASun/Big SouthF

I found that Merrimack is less than 4000 students enrolled. The problem is there are just a few spots that are left that the D2 schools could move up to. There is behind the scene talks that we do not know about. We know that Terleton State is talking to 2 conferences right now. As it is, the conferences with 10 or less should be on the phone talking to other schools for being safe. We already know several D1 schools are looking for a better conference. It would be safe to say there are D2 schools talking to D1 conferences to move up like NEC, ASUN, Summit and WAC. They need the extra cushion just in case before they get caught with their pants down like the WAC. The next expansion explosion could leave some schools without a home like UTRGV, New Jersey Tech and Chicago State.

The FBS conferences are too big. Even with multiple defections, there would still be plenty of room for call ups.

Even if the Sunbelt (which is the most vulnerable) lost their top few there are several FCS schools ready and willing to come up and at the very worst get them back up to 8

W&M is not interested in the Patriot

(09-21-2018 06:53 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  20,000+
Nova Southeastern 24,148 A-Sun

In theory yes, but there are only just over 4k students on campus as undergrads. The majority of students are in online grad programs. Not a great thing to base student involvement on. Also, just look at the other three south Florida schools, Miami, FIU, FAU. All struggle with fan support, there is a very good chance that Nova would as well.

It's remarkable. For the first time in its conference history, the Big East has zero threat of losing membership. It is now the top non-football conference in the country, and could grab any school it chooses from any non-football conference.

The B1G and SEC are rock-solid. They will not be losing members. The ACC is incredibly strong too, thanks to its GOR. The Big 12's GOR expiring creates the possibility for movement (notably, Texas and/or Oklahoma). I feel that the PAC really needs expansion into the central time zone, not only for more content, but the potential for earlier games to be seen in the South and East.

The AAC, which is effectively the old Big East Football, will always be at risk for losing members to a power conference. However, the difference today is that I feel like that is widely accepted by each of the members (where BE Football members were split on keeping league together or moving on to another conference).

If there is one more shift in realignment, it will only cement the top half (P5/A5) and the bottom half (G5). I think we are already there in terms of what has already been distributed in television revenue and future projections, but such an official declaration will probably save many schools a ton of money in the long run.

(09-21-2018 09:27 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC, which is effectively the old Big East Football Conference USA, will always be at risk for losing members to a power conference. However, the difference today is that I feel like that is widely accepted by each of the members (where BE Football members were split on keeping league together or moving on to another conference).

Fixed. Otherwise, yea, all the Big East has to do at this point is keep chugging along in basketball and see if it can wait out UConn, with the knowledge that if UConn doesn't come back Saint Louis will still be sitting there whenever.

Double post.

Your movers make no sense. Also don’t see ASun Belt teams leaving to join the CUSA which is a lateral move at this time, with more teams in the conference. Basically jumping ship to make less money.

(09-21-2018 11:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-21-2018 09:27 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC, which is effectively the old Big East Football Conference USA, will always be at risk for losing members to a power conference. However, the difference today is that I feel like that is widely accepted by each of the members (where BE Football members were split on keeping league together or moving on to another conference).

Fixed. Otherwise, yea, all the Big East has to do at this point is keep chugging along in basketball and see if it can wait out UConn, with the knowledge that if UConn doesn't come back Saint Louis will still be sitting there whenever.

Saint Louis is projected to have a great year in the A10. If that happens, and Ford continues his strong recruiting, the BE may make a move sooner (in advance of next TV deal) to get to 11 members (and 20 conference games). SLU is an incredibly strong peer to many of the Big East schools already, and would add a big media market to the conference's collection.

UConn is in a class by itself. No matter how many members the Big East has, there will be a spot for them if there is mutual interest.

Somebody please finally kill off the WAC. A zombie conference that lost all it's original members and wonders around with the WAC name, pretending that the real WAC did not actually die a long time ago.

(09-21-2018 12:22 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(09-21-2018 11:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-21-2018 09:27 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC, which is effectively the old Big East Football Conference USA, will always be at risk for losing members to a power conference. However, the difference today is that I feel like that is widely accepted by each of the members (where BE Football members were split on keeping league together or moving on to another conference).

Fixed. Otherwise, yea, all the Big East has to do at this point is keep chugging along in basketball and see if it can wait out UConn, with the knowledge that if UConn doesn't come back Saint Louis will still be sitting there whenever.

Saint Louis is projected to have a great year in the A10. If that happens, and Ford continues his strong recruiting, the BE may make a move sooner (in advance of next TV deal) to get to 11 members (and 20 conference games). SLU is an incredibly strong peer to many of the Big East schools already, and would add a big media market to the conference's collection.

UConn is in a class by itself. No matter how many members the Big East has, there will be a spot for them if there is mutual interest.

I've always thought that the Big Easy missed a huge opportunity to consolidate power by not including Dayton and St Louis, two programs that fit the mold perfectly.

I'm not sure we are going to see a huge cascade of realignment the next time. It's now advantageous for the G5 conferences to have just 10 members. If the AAC and/or C-USA lose members they may not replace them. Same goes for the MWC and MAC but I think they are less likely to be impacted.

(09-21-2018 12:49 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(09-21-2018 12:22 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(09-21-2018 11:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-21-2018 09:27 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The AAC, which is effectively the old Big East Football Conference USA, will always be at risk for losing members to a power conference. However, the difference today is that I feel like that is widely accepted by each of the members (where BE Football members were split on keeping league together or moving on to another conference).

Fixed. Otherwise, yea, all the Big East has to do at this point is keep chugging along in basketball and see if it can wait out UConn, with the knowledge that if UConn doesn't come back Saint Louis will still be sitting there whenever.

Saint Louis is projected to have a great year in the A10. If that happens, and Ford continues his strong recruiting, the BE may make a move sooner (in advance of next TV deal) to get to 11 members (and 20 conference games). SLU is an incredibly strong peer to many of the Big East schools already, and would add a big media market to the conference's collection.

UConn is in a class by itself. No matter how many members the Big East has, there will be a spot for them if there is mutual interest.

I've always thought that the Big Easy missed a huge opportunity to consolidate power by not including Dayton and St Louis, two programs that fit the mold perfectly.

My feeling has always been that, when the C7 began to look at reorganizing the Big East, it did not want to over-saturate new members along with the current memberships. Marquette and DePaul, while part of the old Big East, were not even in the Big East for ten years before it had to reorganize itself. For Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Seton Hall and Providence, that would mean playing in the Big East - their established brand and conference for 30 years - with five completely new members, and two other members that were only in the league for eight seasons.

By only inviting three members (Butler, Creighton and Xavier), it allowed the ten-team configuration to allow each of the teams to grow and develop together, especially with the round-robin, for at least the inaugural and introductory phase of the reorganized conference. It allowed Butler, Creighton and Xavier to develop relationships and rivalries with the C7, and have the brand/conference create value for itself due to conference realignment. If they had invited all five at once, they would have fought an A10-stigma/label, since four of the five new members would have come directly from the Atlantic-10 (not unlike the American fighting the C-USA label, in inviting UCF, Houston, Memphis, SMU, ECU, Tulane and Tulsa).

Saint Louis and Dayton, IMO, will be in the Big East eventually. They are like-minded peers, have similar athletic programs, have new facilities and have great support (SLU - media market; UD - fan base). Having said that, both schools are not going anywhere. I would not be shocked to see them added in advance of the next TV deal (which would offer more content, more markets and more games within the conference tournament at MSG, which both fan bases have strong alumni in NYC). SLU has invested heavily in Ford (who has done outstanding in recruiting) and Dayton is undergoing a massive arena renovation. I don't think either would have done so without getting certain assurances from the Big East, IMO.

(09-21-2018 12:36 PM)goofus Wrote:  Somebody please finally kill off the WAC. A zombie conference that lost all it's original members and wonders around with the WAC name, pretending that the real WAC did not actually die a long time ago.

The WAC could always be a conference for a bunch of rejects that nobody wants.

(09-21-2018 12:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I'm not sure we are going to see a huge cascade of realignment the next time. It's now advantageous for the G5 conferences to have just 10 members. If the AAC and/or C-USA lose members they may not replace them. Same goes for the MWC and MAC but I think they are less likely to be impacted.

With all the news articles out there where many schools are rumored to move, all conferences are on red alert that they could lose members any day now.

For at least the 77th time, Colorado Mesa is NOT, repeat NOT interested in going D1 in any way shape or form.


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(09-21-2018 06:04 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  For at least the 77th time, Colorado Mesa is NOT, repeat NOT interested in going D1 in any way shape or form.


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This is a DavidSt fantasy thread. He will continue to ignore us and write his fiction.

(09-21-2018 06:53 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Horizon League 10 could lose 4



20,000+
Wayne State, Michigan 27,298 Horizon League
Grand alley State 25,460 Horizon League

10,000+
Purdue U.-Northwest 15,286 Horizon
Ferris State 14,187 Horizon
UMSL 17,014 Horizon/OVC

Large privates or key schools.

Davenport 7594 Horizon
Maryville 6838 Horizon
Lindenwood 9357 Horizon

DavidSt, you really need your own sports TV segment...not for informational purposes, but for the sheer asinine, otherworldly nonsense that you spew!

(09-21-2018 12:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I'm not sure we are going to see a huge cascade of realignment the next time. It's now advantageous for the G5 conferences to have just 10 members. If the AAC and/or C-USA lose members they may not replace them. Same goes for the MWC and MAC but I think they are less likely to be impacted.

The question is going to be what triggers it, which really is just how will the smart leagues make money in the future.

We've gone from it isn't crazy to have 20+ teams in a conference and the conference is really a loose confederation, to smaller leagues built on round-robin and double round-robin play where the league did more such hiring and assigning officials and sponsoring championship events and issuing awards to slightly larger leagues that became economic units managing rights agreements and such.

Big can work. Some things have to change but if the right people want those changes they can happen. If big becomes the thing then we could see massive changes.

As it is 16 is the probable upper limit though 18 could be made to work and if you are approaching expansion thinking 16 is your cap and you have 14 you are going to be super picky who the "last" two are.