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(09-16-2018 03:20 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  So, where are we going?

Figures from 247 https://247sports.com/Season/2015-Footba...mRankings/ are not promising at all.

While not an exact science of course, and realizing that there can be exceptions, the recruiting rankings are otherwise a pretty accurate predictor of performance.
Indeed is is almost uncanny most of the time.

Recruiting classes generally start to have a major impact after three seasons, depending on the number of redshirts, injuries, and attrition.
So let's look at ODU. Our best recruiting class was in 2014. It was #2 in CUSA and #77 in the country. (our only foray into the top 100)
The big impact then should have been seen starting in 2016. Indeed it was. Redshirts notwithstanding, we should have peaked last season, but with RL hurt, and no developed QB that was not to be.
OX, RL, Nick Clarke, Harper, Duhart, and Daniel Appouh are from that class. https://247sports.com/college/old-domini...l/Commits/

So, based on the above analysis, what can we look forward to?

2015
Mar 75
FAU 79
LT 82
MTSU 86
USM 87
UNT 94
FIU 100
ODU 110

2016
Mar 51
UAB 71
FAU 89
LT 94
MTSU 96
USM 100
ODU 120

2017
FAU 60
usm 74
utsa 75
wku 82
mar 87
mtsu 91
Lt 100
ODU 124

2018
FIU 67
Mar 74
FAU 75
LT 77
wku 83
usm 84
utsa 85
ODU 128

We are now seeing the impact of the class of 2015. (with less than a handful of ranked redshirt holdovers from 2014.)
Our performance so far this season would seem to support the rankings.
Granted there can be exceptions, diamonds-in-the-rough, etc.
However, going forward, the prognosis for our program through 2020 is, IMO, very, very bleak

Thanks for supporting what some more realistic posters have been saying. It starts with recruiting! Recruiting evals and rankings do matter because they can give an overall indication of players capabilities as a freshman and a couple of years down the road. We will never get the 4* or 5* recruits but we should have in every recruiting class more 3*s than 2*s and very few players that are not evaluated. BW IMO has been a very poor judge of FBS level talent especially on the OL, QB, RB, and DB's. This also seems to support what some local HS coaches have stated as well. Should we also look at the strength and athletic performance staff as well because beside a few player development has been sorely lacking despite ll the videos.

From the recruiting thread:

(07-22-2018 02:38 PM)Grommet Wrote:  All years for which recruiting ranks/ratings are available (ETA: added historical rank in red):

2019*: #2, .7902 1
2018: #13, .7820 2
2017: #13, .7799 5
2016: #12, .7795 6
2015: #10, .7809 4
2014: #2, .7813 3
2013: #14, .7408 9
2012: #13, .7473 7
2011: #12, .7416 8

(09-16-2018 07:08 PM)Grommet Wrote:  From the recruiting thread:

(07-22-2018 02:38 PM)Grommet Wrote:  All years for which recruiting ranks/ratings are available (ETA: added historical rank in red):

2019*: #2, .7902 1
2018: #13, .7820 2
2017: #13, .7799 5
2016: #12, .7795 6
2015: #10, .7809 4
2014: #2, .7813 3
2013: #14, .7408 9
2012: #13, .7473 7
2011: #12, .7416 8

Well that kind of tracks with the thread's original premise. We haven't necessarily gotten worse, but most everyone else has gotten better.

It should be noted that we were not a member of CUSA prior to 2014, nor were we FBS prior to 2013
It should also be noted that our above listed conference standing from 2012 to 2014 is just an arbitrary last place, the number being one more than the actual number of members in the conference.

So, the only practical number that can be a real world predictor is the comparative rank with all other FBS (129) schools from 2013 forward.

2013 122
2014 77
2015 110
2016 120
2017 124
2018 128

That's interesting data. So our avg ranking went up based on player ratings yearly (we're talking 10's of a percent but it's relatively good sign) and our national ranking went down overall. So did everyone else get better, or are we still recruiting the same way we did in FCS? Hard to tell. I think we need to be in that top 75 and top 100 on down years for recruiting to be able to hang with the best in our leagues.

I know it probably doesn't mean much but it is coincidental that we had a spike the years prior to all the stadium noise both times. After all the hype fro 2014 of FBS move + stadium hype then after we all got deflated from the lack of movement on stadium to us hum drumming that it'll never happen to all the sudden it is happening and renderings and a spike in recruiting. I know correlation does not mean causation so who knows.