(09-13-2018 07:21 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(09-13-2018 07:03 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  November can’t get here fast enough.

Finally something we agree on. On of us is going to be disappointed though.

Not that I know - - I do not have a functioning glass ball - - but my sense is that Mach and Mensa may have the better argument here.

There were, in my after-the-fact assessment, three reasons why Trump beat Hillary in 2016. At least one, and perhaps two, of them no longer apply:

1. Hillary was corrupt to the core. The media refused to see it, but most Americans did. And as much as the typical voter may have despised Donald Trump as a person, he was still better than the rancid alternative. Hillary still cannot keep her lying mouth shut. But she is not on any ballot in 2018 and is not a threat to take office if people decide this time that it is safe to vote on the basis of Trump's thoroughly unlikable personality. Net gain for the Democrats.

2. Obama was that bad. Again, the media refused to acknowledge it, and still does, but most Americans were aware of how underhanded, incompetent and divisive the Lord Obama was as a president. Casting a vote for Trump seemed like an unpleasant, but necessary, dose of medicine. Now that most of the Obama damage (ObamaCare excepted) is being reversed, it seems safer to vote for a less distasteful option. Another net gain for the Democrats.

3. Backlash against a lying media. This one still applies. It may be the one (and only) reason why the Democrats do not sweep this coming November. If the media would just learn to play it straight, this election would not be close. The Republicans are fortunate that the media is incapable of playing it straight, and as a result we may see a very close election.

It is my present guess that the Democrats will take the house and deadlock the Senate at 50-50.

If Trump was even 10% as smart as some on this forum seem to think he is, this election would be a lock for the Republicans. His policies, at least, have gotten our nation back up on its feet.

But his incurable diarrhea of mouth and iphone will nevertheless make this a very close election. What an idiot.

(09-13-2018 07:48 AM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  

(09-13-2018 07:21 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(09-13-2018 07:03 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  November can’t get here fast enough.

Finally something we agree on. On of us is going to be disappointed though.

Not that I know - - I do not have a functioning glass ball - - but my sense is that Mach and Mensa may have the better argument here.

There were, in my after-the-fact assessment, three reasons why Trump beat Hillary in 2016. At least one, and perhaps two, of them no longer apply:

1. Hillary was corrupt to the core. The media refused to see it, but most Americans did. And as much as the typical voter may have despised Donald Trump as a person, he was still better than the rancid alternative. Hillary still cannot keep her lying mouth shut. But she is not on any ballot in 2018 and is not a threat to take office if people decide this time that it is safe to vote on the basis of Trump's thoroughly unlikable personality. Net gain for the Democrats.

2. Obama was that bad. Again, the media refused to acknowledge it, and still does, but most Americans were aware of how underhanded, incompetent and divisive the Lord Obama was as a president. Casting a vote for Trump seemed like an unpleasant, but necessary, dose of medicine. Now that most of the Obama damage (ObamaCare excepted) is being reversed, it seems safer to vote for a less distasteful option. Another net gain for the Democrats.

3. Backlash against a lying media. This one still applies. It may be the one (and only) reason why the Democrats do not sweep this coming November. If the media would just learn to play it straight, this election would not be close. The Republicans are fortunate that the media is incapable of playing it straight, and as a result we may see a very close election.

It is my present guess that the Democrats will take the house and deadlock the Senate at 50-50.

If Trump was even 10% as smart as some on this forum seem to think he is, this election would be a lock for the Republicans. His policies, at least, have gotten our nation back up on its feet.

But his incurable diarrhea of mouth and iphone will nevertheless make this a very close election. What an idiot.

Which would not be out of line with historical precedent for mid-terms, it's why I said one of us will be disappointed. It may well end up being me but I assure you my disappointment won't be anywhere near the level of the dems should they not gain control. I can also assure you that I will not be doing anything and everything I can to disrupt or discredit anyone nor will I take to the streets engaging in violent protests should the dims wrest control.

Republicans will pick up seats in the Senate. Unless the polls are as bad as in November 2016, they will lose a good chunk of House seats. The question is where between 10 and 40 that number is. If they lose 23, they still have a 1 vote majority.

And the polls seem to be mostly internal polls. Public polls are few and far between. Some of the elections have no polls at all. The primaries just ended. Some have no polls since July which is pretty meaningless.

(09-13-2018 07:03 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  November can’t get here fast enough.

It's up in the air. However, if history is any precedent, the ruling party will lose seats. Mark my words, if the Dem's regain any power the MSM will proclaim it's a proclamation against Trump. However, anyone with any damn sense and historical knowledge will know the it's just the status quo with history repeating itself as it has many times before.

I really wish we didn't get a new thread every time a poll is released.

The Senate Map is horrible for Dems. I expect them to pick up house seats. How many? Who knows.....

(09-13-2018 08:43 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(09-13-2018 07:03 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  November can’t get here fast enough.

It's up in the air. However, if history is any precedent, the ruling party will lose seats. Mark my words, if the Dem's regain any power the MSM will proclaim it's a proclamation against Trump. However, anyone with any damn sense and historical knowledge will know the it's just the status quo with history repeating itself as it has many times before.

Of course its a proclamation against Trump. The guy has approvals in the high 30's to low 40's and is the dominant voice in the Republic Party. When he injects himself into a primary race and his candidate wins, its because of him... right? Likewise, when his candidate loses in the general, its also on him.

The Senate really isn't. There are so many local variables in Senate races.

(09-13-2018 10:59 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Senate really isn't. There are so many local variables in Senate races.

Trump will drive Democrats to the polls... which they notoriously do not do in midterm elections. I agree Senate seats are different... senators are typically elder statesmen and known entities within their states and shielded a bit from the ebbs and flows of national politics, but this election is all about turnout and I think Democrats are more likely to turnout in mass than Republicans. I do not think Democrats will take the Senate, but I do think they will take the House, and fare better in the Senate than they should.

(09-13-2018 11:36 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(09-13-2018 10:59 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Senate really isn't. There are so many local variables in Senate races.

Trump will drive Democrats to the polls... which they notoriously do not do in midterm elections. I agree Senate seats are different... senators are typically elder statesmen and known entities within their states and shielded a bit from the ebbs and flows of national politics, but this election is all about turnout and I think Democrats are more likely to turnout in mass than Republicans. I do not think Democrats will take the Senate, but I do think they will take the House, and fare better in the Senate than they should.

What makes you think that the conservative base won't show up though? They just proved not long ago that polls are about as useful as a roll of toilet paper and tend to produce the same result - a pile of s**t. You and yours are very loud and opinionated and you are screaming at the pollsters, while the Red Team just sits back and stays quiet. Is it possible that your whining and crying and temper tantrums are actually driving more voters to vote against you? I bet you don't. Ask the ten's of millions of people whose 401k's are rising at double digit percentages who they are voting for - They won't answer, they will just go and vote.



You may be right, but what makes you so GD sure about it? Things are so volatile and extreme (on both sides) that anything could happen. This stuff with Mueller could spell doom for one party or the other in very short order if it happens before election day. You seem convinced that The Donald is screwed..... but if that was the case, wouldn't you think that Mueller would be spilling BEFORE the elections rather than after?

The hissy fits that have been on display by the Blue Team will pale in comparison to what we may be witnessing come November if the Reps hold the controls - Antifa might become the third political party and our country could become a bad rendition of the move The Purge. I ordered a whole case of Orville Redenbacher to sit back and watch if that event comes to fruition.....

Are we referencing the same polls that had HClinton walking to a landslide in the Midwest in 2016?

I read that Wisconsin is moving to Canada.

(09-13-2018 11:36 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(09-13-2018 10:59 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Senate really isn't. There are so many local variables in Senate races.

Trump will drive Democrats to the polls... which they notoriously do not do in midterm elections. I agree Senate seats are different... senators are typically elder statesmen and known entities within their states and shielded a bit from the ebbs and flows of national politics, but this election is all about turnout and I think Democrats are more likely to turnout in mass than Republicans. I do not think Democrats will take the Senate, but I do think they will take the House, and fare better in the Senate than they should.

He may do just that. However, it's possible that a larger percentage of them may vote by proxy for Trump by voting for GOP candidates so as to ensure that Trump's economic plans are not disrupted. I have no idea if that will happen; however, I think Trump has done a generally poor job of discussing the merits of the economy and is getting tripped up by his own ego. What I mean by that is IMHO he's making dubious claims that - in typical Trump fashion - is "the best ever. There is no need for him to open himself up to unnecessary criticism for getting things wrong. Just tout the merits of what is going right - the economy - and the rest SHOULD fall into place.