(09-11-2018 08:11 AM)Bogg Wrote: (09-10-2018 03:12 PM)ccd494 Wrote: When America East added UMass Lowell they invited both Lowell and NJIT to make presentations. Lowell's was great. NJIT's was very, very much not. Like, laughably not. Like, probably going to need the entire leadership in the conference office and at a number of AE schools to turn over before considering NJIT again bad.
NJIT also has a weird mix of sports because it is heavily male. It doesn't do a whole lot to help America East in any way. It's fairly large, it's public. But it doesn't add revenue or add numbers to sports America East is light in, excepting baseball.
Regardless of how a PowerPoint went several years ago, AE doesn't have very many suitable expansion candidates left next time they're looking to add a school. UMass Lowell made sense - it's significantly bigger than NJIT in terms of enrollment, the academics are still pretty good, the northern New England flagships have a history with Lowell in Hockey East (which is probably what you'd consider the flagship sport for all four schools), and (perhaps most importantly) it filled in some geography for the conference after BU's jump to the Patriot left them without a presence in Massachusetts.
That being said, there aren't many good non-NJIT choices remaining. If we assume CCSU is tethered to the NEC by football, you're basically looking at D2/D3 call-ups RIC, Southern Connecticut, or one of the "(town name) State"s in Massachusetts or New Hampshire. To my knowledge none of those schools have the finances or academics of NJIT (and presidents care about that kind of thing) and I doubt Lowell or UNH would want to elevate a lower-tier athletic department in their state to equal footing with them.
NJIT's likely on deck.
Well, okay, let's look at why America East would want to add a school at this point.
1.) It is a great opportunity for the league.
2.) They need a warm body.
NJIT is clearly not a great opportunity. If they were, they would have been admitted to the NEC or AEC already. But they continue to be an absolute mess on and off the field.
So, the AEC would have to be in desperation "anyone will do mode." In order for that to happen at least one, probably two schools would need to have left (AEC is at 9). Just one school leaving would put the conference at 8, which is workable without having to get desperate for someone you have turned down multiple times already.
Who could leave?
-The four New England publics (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Lowell) seem tethered together. If they leave, every conference is starting over with a white piece of paper.
-Binghamton, without football, is likely not going to be appealing to the CAA as a full member. As a public, they don't fit with the MAAC, NEC or Patriot.
That leaves four even remotely realistic candidates, from least to most likely:
1.) UMBC. UMBC could get tired of being the geographical outlier and look to join a league with less travel. That league, however, doesn't exist right now. The A-Sun and Big South are too far south. The NEC, Patriot and MAAC are private school leagues. Towson isn't going to be looking to add another Maryland school to the CAA. Plus they would be abandoning their tournament share from their NCAA win.
2.) Hartford. Hartford, institutionally, is a better fit for the NEC. And CCSU is a better fit for America East. They are a long time league member and a good league citizen, so they won't get the boot. MAYBE the AEC and NEC engineer a swap of the two schools and let CCSU keep football in the NEC, but again, that doesn't create a new opening. This is a non-issue.
3+4.) Stony Brook and Albany. DavidST's dreaming aside, Stony Brook isn't going FBS. There may not be many FBS teams in the northeast, but the region is still oversaturated when compared to those who actually care about football. There could be scenarios where the CAA comes calling, but that would be only if the CAA hemorrhaged football schools like Richmond, W&M, Villanova, Delaware and JMU. Maybe that happens, in which case:
-What do SBU and Albany gain by leaving for the CAA? Is playing football with the rump of the CAA better than Maine and UNH? Is the CAA a more stable or better basketball conference than the AEC? I'd argue no. But they could still go, in which case....
-Do Northeastern and Hofstra stick around in a deeply, deeply degraded CAA or come back to the AEC for less travel and a similar level of non-football sports?
-Does this create a regional FCS conference, so football is no longer an issue and the AEC can invite CCSU, Bryant and the like?