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OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
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ODUDrunkard13 Offline
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Post: #81
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 11:13 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(09-13-2018 10:59 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  Shocking that a few folks don't understand how staggered evacs work and why they are the best plan of action. Had the storm shifted in the opposite direction and required Zone B and Zone C to evacuate, what would you be saying now?

Losing an entire week of school and days of commerce was unnecessary and will not likely to be tolerated too many more times moving forward. I understand caution, but this was over the top. Time to revisit the plans... this didn't work. My wife stays home with the kids now, but can't imagine what we would have done a year ago when we both worked. Most people are in that boat and most lower income jobs don't have remote working options or flexibility to just take time off when the sun is shining and they are business as usual. I doubt those that had to take off work unpaid or worry if their job is still there when they return feel any safer from this abundance of caution. This has caused a lot of problems.

It's easy to call it an overreaction when the storm doesn't hit with it's full power. But if it does and they don't stagger evacs, people would be asking why not. Damned if do, damned if you don't.
09-13-2018 11:17 AM
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EverRespect Online
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Post: #82
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
I will add that the NHC, who usually does a great job, shares the blame with the state and local authorities. That cone 3-4 days out, which included everyone from Hilton Head to the Eastern Shore, when these decisions were made was beyond ridiculous. They need to be better as well. Again, understand the caution, but you don't want to cry wolf either.
09-13-2018 11:19 AM
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odu09 Online
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Post: #83
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 11:19 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  I will add that the NHC, who usually does a great job, shares the blame with the state and local authorities. That cone 3-4 days out, which included everyone from Hilton Head to the Eastern Shore, when these decisions were made was beyond ridiculous. They need to be better as well. Again, understand the caution, but you don't want to cry wolf either.

You are asking for the impossible. They are weather forecasters and the track was not certain, it had a wide range of outcomes. Would you rather them be misleading and have them guess in a narrower spot? The high pressure system that eventually developed to steer the storm south was not there, nor did they know for certain it would develop.
09-13-2018 12:00 PM
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odu09 Online
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Post: #84
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 10:59 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  Shocking that a few folks don't understand how staggered evacs work and why they are the best plan of action. Had the storm shifted in the opposite direction and required Zone B and Zone C to evacuate, what would you be saying now?

It is quite telling. Even the city manager for our coastal city doesn't seem to grasp it.

I think I am repeating myself so I guess I'll be done after this on the subject. But hindsight is 20/20. Now that the storm went the other way, people are thinking it was the wrong call. It wasn't. It was the right call at the time with the information we had. I don't think people truly understand how uncertain this particular storm was. And just because this one was this way, doesn't mean the next one will be. The worst you can do is become apathetic and disregard all warnings.

I'm sorry mother nature was such an inconvenience to you all... if you are truly this upset by missing work or dealing with your kids for 5 days in the last couple of years, maybe it's time to move inland.
09-13-2018 12:06 PM
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AdoptedMonarch Online
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Post: #85
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 12:00 PM)odu09 Wrote:  
(09-13-2018 11:19 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  I will add that the NHC, who usually does a great job, shares the blame with the state and local authorities. That cone 3-4 days out, which included everyone from Hilton Head to the Eastern Shore, when these decisions were made was beyond ridiculous. They need to be better as well. Again, understand the caution, but you don't want to cry wolf either.

You are asking for the impossible. They are weather forecasters and the track was not certain, it had a wide range of outcomes. Would you rather them be misleading and have them guess in a narrower spot? The high pressure system that eventually developed to steer the storm south was not there, nor did they know for certain it would develop.

I agree. The fault was not with the forecasters. The fault lies with state and local government, with an assist from our sensationalist media, who prematurely pulled the trigger on an evacuation order when "the track was not certain" and there was still plenty of time to see what might develop.

Yes, a full out evacuation order for southeastern Virginia would have been turmoil. That's pretty much to be expected when faced with a natural catastrophe.

But now the job will likely prove to be even more turmoil, the next time that a Zone A evacuation order is issued. Will Gilesfan's friend, who just unnecessarily spent 11 hours in the car, be likely to do that all over again. Perhaps he will. Many will not.
09-13-2018 12:13 PM
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12thmonarch Offline
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Post: #86
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 12:06 PM)odu09 Wrote:  
(09-13-2018 10:59 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  Shocking that a few folks don't understand how staggered evacs work and why they are the best plan of action. Had the storm shifted in the opposite direction and required Zone B and Zone C to evacuate, what would you be saying now?

It is quite telling. Even the city manager for our coastal city doesn't seem to grasp it.

I think I am repeating myself so I guess I'll be done after this on the subject. But hindsight is 20/20. Now that the storm went the other way, people are thinking it was the wrong call. It wasn't. It was the right call at the time with the information we had. I don't think people truly understand how uncertain this particular storm was. And just because this one was this way, doesn't mean the next one will be. The worst you can do is become apathetic and disregard all warnings.

I'm sorry mother nature was such an inconvenience to you all... if you are truly this upset by missing work or dealing with your kids for 5 days in the last couple of years, maybe it's time to move inland.

I will add my 2 cents. Predicting where and how the storm will turn and with how much intensity is like throwing thousands of chickens on a vast prairie and predicting their run patterns. In a word crap shoot. I don't have the exact number but a gazillion calculations per second with readings from the eye to the edge is needed every micro second to estimate the next movement and correlate the path with the historical data we have had for how ever long we are maintaining the data. Its essentially taking every instruction processor of every architecture available on the entire east coast and running the calculations. Its that huge and even then a slight error in correlation and a weird movement anywhere in the storm path will throw those calculations in trash. There is no controlling mother nature only hoping we can get our numbers right to escape her fury just in time, that is if we are lucky and the historical data holds good. Its not like weather forecasting is calling fake punt on our own 10 in the first quarter. That being said **** Bobby Wilder.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2018 12:21 PM by 12thmonarch.)
09-13-2018 12:19 PM
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Gilesfan Online
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Post: #87
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
How can you possibly Wait till the last minute to evacuate? If you do tbat, uts pointless to even evacuate and everyone is trapped.
09-13-2018 12:24 PM
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TheDancinMonarch Offline
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Post: #88
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
One size does not fit all. I am in zone A. I have exact knowledge of what has happened on my property going back to the 1940's. At no time during that span has any flood water been in sight of my home. If a large storm were heading into the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay I would be in Kansas. Otherwise I would be staying put just as I did this time.

Now I recognize that just because something hasn't happened in the past doesn't mean that it won't happen in the future.

I am a responsible adult capable of making a rational decision without the "help" of the Governor, Mayor or another self serving politician.
09-13-2018 12:25 PM
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Post: #89
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 12:24 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  How can you possibly Wait till the last minute to evacuate? If you do tbat, uts pointless to even evacuate and everyone is trapped.

I guess that we can all argue over what qualifies as "last minute".

In my totally ignorant opinion, 3.5-plus days is not "last minute". It is excessive and counterproductive.
09-13-2018 12:28 PM
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Gilesfan Online
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Post: #90
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 12:28 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  
(09-13-2018 12:24 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  How can you possibly Wait till the last minute to evacuate? If you do tbat, uts pointless to even evacuate and everyone is trapped.

I guess that we can all argue over what qualifies as "last minute".

In my totally ignorant opinion, 3.5-plus days is not "last minute". It is excessive and counterproductive.

3.5 days early and still a small portion of the MSA had difficulty getti out. Image 1.7 million trying to do so 1 day in advance...
09-13-2018 12:32 PM
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ODUDrunkard13 Offline
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Post: #91
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 12:25 PM)TheDancinMonarch Wrote:  One size does not fit all. I am in zone A. I have exact knowledge of what has happened on my property going back to the 1940's. At no time during that span has any flood water been in sight of my home. If a large storm were heading into the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay I would be in Kansas. Otherwise I would be staying put just as I did this time.

Now I recognize that just because something hasn't happened in the past doesn't mean that it won't happen in the future.

I am a responsible adult capable of making a rational decision without the "help" of the Governor, Mayor or another self serving politician.

As a fellow resident of Zone A, who is working today and tomorrow and didn't evacuate, no politicians forced me to leave. It's a suggestion to residents. And without that suggestion, insurance companies won't cover the cost of your hotel stay.

As for the businesses that had to close, that sucks. But it's the cost of a safe, timely evacuation.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2018 12:53 PM by ODUDrunkard13.)
09-13-2018 12:51 PM
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Post: #92
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 12:32 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-13-2018 12:28 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  
(09-13-2018 12:24 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  How can you possibly Wait till the last minute to evacuate? If you do tbat, uts pointless to even evacuate and everyone is trapped.

I guess that we can all argue over what qualifies as "last minute".

In my totally ignorant opinion, 3.5-plus days is not "last minute". It is excessive and counterproductive.

3.5 days early and still a small portion of the MSA had difficulty getti out. Image 1.7 million trying to do so 1 day in advance...

If there was ever a scenario where 1.7M would have to evacuate, it would be panic and chaos anyway. Fact of the matter is, with anything that could come our way aside from maybe a Chinese military invasion, 90% of us are safer just staying put inside their homes. If I am looking at a 2-week power outage like after Isabel, then I'll probably leave after the fact.
09-13-2018 01:20 PM
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TheDancinMonarch Offline
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Post: #93
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 12:51 PM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  
(09-13-2018 12:25 PM)TheDancinMonarch Wrote:  One size does not fit all. I am in zone A. I have exact knowledge of what has happened on my property going back to the 1940's. At no time during that span has any flood water been in sight of my home. If a large storm were heading into the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay I would be in Kansas. Otherwise I would be staying put just as I did this time.

Now I recognize that just because something hasn't happened in the past doesn't mean that it won't happen in the future.

I am a responsible adult capable of making a rational decision without the "help" of the Governor, Mayor or another self serving politician.

As a fellow resident of Zone A, who is working today and tomorrow and didn't evacuate, no politicians forced me to leave. It's a suggestion to residents. And without that suggestion, insurance companies won't cover the cost of your hotel stay.

As for the businesses that had to close, that sucks. But it's the cost of a safe, timely evacuation.

Remember that was a mandatory suggestion. And I don't think insurance companies are going to pay for your evacuation excursion unless there is damage to your home. At least I don't think mine will.
09-13-2018 02:28 PM
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ODUDrunkard13 Offline
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Post: #94
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-13-2018 02:28 PM)TheDancinMonarch Wrote:  
(09-13-2018 12:51 PM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  
(09-13-2018 12:25 PM)TheDancinMonarch Wrote:  One size does not fit all. I am in zone A. I have exact knowledge of what has happened on my property going back to the 1940's. At no time during that span has any flood water been in sight of my home. If a large storm were heading into the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay I would be in Kansas. Otherwise I would be staying put just as I did this time.

Now I recognize that just because something hasn't happened in the past doesn't mean that it won't happen in the future.

I am a responsible adult capable of making a rational decision without the "help" of the Governor, Mayor or another self serving politician.

As a fellow resident of Zone A, who is working today and tomorrow and didn't evacuate, no politicians forced me to leave. It's a suggestion to residents. And without that suggestion, insurance companies won't cover the cost of your hotel stay.

As for the businesses that had to close, that sucks. But it's the cost of a safe, timely evacuation.

Remember that was a mandatory suggestion. And I don't think insurance companies are going to pay for your evacuation excursion unless there is damage to your home. At least I don't think mine will.

Mandatory suggestion is still a suggestion. They aren't rounding folks up and taking them to shelters.

And look up the prohibited use provision on your policy or call your agency. I called on Tuesday after being told about this by a neighbor and found out gas, food and hotel for the evacuation is included in my homeowners policy.

Most should cover it, since it helps limit their risk to pay out for loss of life. I didn't use it, so I'm not sure how much it impact rates. Though I'm sure it does.
09-13-2018 02:39 PM
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RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion


09-13-2018 02:43 PM
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RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion


09-13-2018 03:02 PM
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