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MonarchManiac Online
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Post: #41
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-11-2018 08:07 AM)AimHigh Wrote:  
(09-11-2018 07:56 AM)bit_9 Wrote:  
(09-10-2018 11:02 PM)AimHigh Wrote:  
(09-10-2018 08:00 PM)bit_9 Wrote:  I'm zone D but just got off the phone with my mom who's in OV and she's probably gonna head my way and bring all her alcohol to my place. =]

Zone D club 04-cheers The city turned off the water to the Etheridge area tonight at 11 pm for 30mins for storm preparation testing.

Wasn't aware, thanks. That's good. I was talking about that. Our water in Etheridge comes from the dismal right? That could take a beating and they turn off the pumps for safety. But as long as I've been in Chesapeake I've never had the water actually turn off,.

No we get our water from the Northwest River and groundwater from four wells located along Battlefield Blvd near St. Brides Rd. You probably wouldn't notice your water was off last night unless you flushed a toilet or we're showering at the time. Possibly could have had air in the line this morning but it was back up after 30 minutes.

My wife was cooking/washing dishes and noticed. Complained about water pressure and I couldnt figure out what she was talking about...I guess she was right.... 05-mafia
09-11-2018 08:45 AM
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bit_9 Online
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Post: #42
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-11-2018 08:07 AM)AimHigh Wrote:  
(09-11-2018 07:56 AM)bit_9 Wrote:  
(09-10-2018 11:02 PM)AimHigh Wrote:  
(09-10-2018 08:00 PM)bit_9 Wrote:  I'm zone D but just got off the phone with my mom who's in OV and she's probably gonna head my way and bring all her alcohol to my place. =]

Zone D club 04-cheers The city turned off the water to the Etheridge area tonight at 11 pm for 30mins for storm preparation testing.

Wasn't aware, thanks. That's good. I was talking about that. Our water in Etheridge comes from the dismal right? That could take a beating and they turn off the pumps for safety. But as long as I've been in Chesapeake I've never had the water actually turn off,.

No we get our water from the Northwest River and groundwater from four wells located along Battlefield Blvd near St. Brides Rd. You probably wouldn't notice your water was off last night unless you flushed a toilet or we're showering at the time. Possibly could have had air in the line this morning but it was back up after 30 minutes.
That's right nw not dismal, duh.

Ya we weren't running anything so never noticed.

Posted from mobile device. Hopefully it's coherent.
09-11-2018 09:34 AM
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AdoptedMonarch Offline
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Post: #43
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
Okay, here's my mini-rant:

I realize that safety comes first, but this is absurd. IF we get even more than gently clipped by this storm, it won't happen until Friday night/Saturday morning at the soonest. Yet, here we are mid-day on Tuesday -- 3.5 days out -- shutting down the town. How much prep. time can possibly be needed? One day? Two days perhaps? Surely not 3.5.

There are some of us who run businesses, which are reliant upon access to functioning banking and government services. They are all shutting down. I've just sent my employees home. Not because we're out of work, but instead because we can't work due to these premature shutdowns. My business does not get compensated for work that we cannot do.

I am highly resentful of a business and government climate that acts like passive puppets when it comes to media-driven storm hysteria.

Okay, rant over. Stay safe everyone.
09-11-2018 12:40 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #44
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
Im also at the mercy, but the financial institutions I work for have not shut down yet (luckily). I agree it may be slightly premature, but it's already a zoo out there a couple days out. You can just evacuate in the last minute.
09-11-2018 01:16 PM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #45
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-11-2018 12:40 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  Okay, here's my mini-rant:

I realize that safety comes first, but this is absurd. IF we get even more than gently clipped by this storm, it won't happen until Friday night/Saturday morning at the soonest. Yet, here we are mid-day on Tuesday -- 3.5 days out -- shutting down the town. How much prep. time can possibly be needed? One day? Two days perhaps? Surely not 3.5.

There are some of us who run businesses, which are reliant upon access to functioning banking and government services. They are all shutting down. I've just sent my employees home. Not because we're out of work, but instead because we can't work due to these premature shutdowns. My business does not get compensated for work that we cannot do.

I am highly resentful of a business and government climate that acts like passive puppets when it comes to media-driven storm hysteria.

Okay, rant over. Stay safe everyone.

This. The manufactured hysteria around these storms cost the economy Billions every year just so The Weather Channel/news outlets can sell ads, and the gov't agencies can say they warned us if the storm is vastly more devastating than what is most likely.
09-11-2018 01:22 PM
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odu09 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
To counter your rant:

I can see why it's frustrating, and here's is my perspective as someone who doesn't look at the media and relies on the raw data and storm projections: the reason why people are getting evacuated now is so it can be done in stages. If they were to wait for the last 2 days to send everyone out, that would be a logistical nightmare and you'll have people just sitting ducks on the roads. The roads were backed up early this morning and that's just for people leaving on time from zone A. And you can bet not everyone from that zone is leaving. Imagine what it would look like if they were to evacuate more zones right now?

You see the cone of influence is directed at NC. But there are models still predicting it could sit outside of Hatteras then turn in. If that were to happen, it would be horrible for those who live near coastlines in this area. There's a nonzero chance of that happening, it's not like the media is making it up to scare you.

The threat with this storm for us is not the wind, it is the water. Rain & storm surge on a saturated ground.

People are playing it safe. Nobody ever regrets leaving early.
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2018 01:36 PM by odu09.)
09-11-2018 01:35 PM
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bit_9 Online
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Post: #47
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-11-2018 01:35 PM)odu09 Wrote:  To counter your rant:

I can see why it's frustrating, and here's is my perspective as someone who doesn't look at the media and relies on the raw data and storm projections: the reason why people are getting evacuated now is so it can be done in stages. If they were to wait for the last 2 days to send everyone out, that would be a logistical nightmare and you'll have people just sitting ducks on the roads. The roads were backed up early this morning and that's just for people leaving on time from zone A. And you can bet not everyone from that zone is leaving. Imagine what it would look like if they were to evacuate more zones right now?

You see the cone of influence is directed at NC. But there are models still predicting it could sit outside of Hatteras then turn in. If that were to happen, it would be horrible for those who live near coastlines in this area. There's a nonzero chance of that happening, it's not like the media is making it up to scare you.

The threat with this storm for us is not the wind, it is the water. Rain & storm surge on a saturated ground.

People are playing it safe. Nobody ever regrets leaving early.

Pretty much. I was talking to my wife this morning and told her to make ready JUST in case it turns north. But latest runs and GFS have all started to align with euro and the 5pm news will have it going closer to SC now. Still not out of the woods but I'm much more confident in staying put.

If it stalls and slowly creeps north we could still a pretty significant amount of water in VA.
09-11-2018 01:39 PM
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odu09 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
Yeah, latest models now have it landfall in Wilmington then chillin there, heading south down the SC coast and then going in. Pretty drastic change.
09-11-2018 02:13 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #49
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-11-2018 01:35 PM)odu09 Wrote:  To counter your rant:

I can see why it's frustrating, and here's is my perspective as someone who doesn't look at the media and relies on the raw data and storm projections: the reason why people are getting evacuated now is so it can be done in stages. If they were to wait for the last 2 days to send everyone out, that would be a logistical nightmare and you'll have people just sitting ducks on the roads. The roads were backed up early this morning and that's just for people leaving on time from zone A. And you can bet not everyone from that zone is leaving. Imagine what it would look like if they were to evacuate more zones right now?

You see the cone of influence is directed at NC. But there are models still predicting it could sit outside of Hatteras then turn in. If that were to happen, it would be horrible for those who live near coastlines in this area. There's a nonzero chance of that happening, it's not like the media is making it up to scare you.

The threat with this storm for us is not the wind, it is the water. Rain & storm surge on a saturated ground.

People are playing it safe. Nobody ever regrets leaving early.

Agreed. Ask people who weathered Harvey, Irma, Maria last year, or Katrina, Wilma, Ivan, Ike, Charley, Andrew, Hugo and other monster storms whether they think the hype was a cash grab by business interests or scare tactics by an overactive government.

Barring a miracle that even Tim Tebow couldn't gin up on his best day, somewhere on the coast is going to get HAMMERED. So long as Hampton Roads is even a remote possibility of being that somewhere, I'd rather they shut down everything for three days for scattered showers than blow it off until the last day and watch all hell break loose as a potentially historic hurricane stalks the area.
09-11-2018 02:59 PM
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bit_9 Online
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Post: #50
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-11-2018 02:13 PM)odu09 Wrote:  Yeah, latest models now have it landfall in Wilmington then chillin there, heading south down the SC coast and then going in. Pretty drastic change.

Ya, DT was showing that in his posts earlier and that's great for us and even worse for the SC/NC coast. I just looked at latest total precipitation model through Monday and that area around the landfall is showing total 40+ inches, mostly just off the coast. But feet in some spots as it drifts south after land fall.
09-11-2018 03:01 PM
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Razor Ramon Monarch Online
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Post: #51
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
Looks like Virginia may be spared the worst or even much at all after looking at the most recent models.

Southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina get destroyed with the storm stalling over the area for days.

Yikes.
09-11-2018 03:03 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #52
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-11-2018 01:39 PM)bit_9 Wrote:  
(09-11-2018 01:35 PM)odu09 Wrote:  To counter your rant:

I can see why it's frustrating, and here's is my perspective as someone who doesn't look at the media and relies on the raw data and storm projections: the reason why people are getting evacuated now is so it can be done in stages. If they were to wait for the last 2 days to send everyone out, that would be a logistical nightmare and you'll have people just sitting ducks on the roads. The roads were backed up early this morning and that's just for people leaving on time from zone A. And you can bet not everyone from that zone is leaving. Imagine what it would look like if they were to evacuate more zones right now?

You see the cone of influence is directed at NC. But there are models still predicting it could sit outside of Hatteras then turn in. If that were to happen, it would be horrible for those who live near coastlines in this area. There's a nonzero chance of that happening, it's not like the media is making it up to scare you.

The threat with this storm for us is not the wind, it is the water. Rain & storm surge on a saturated ground.

People are playing it safe. Nobody ever regrets leaving early.

Pretty much. I was talking to my wife this morning and told her to make ready JUST in case it turns north. But latest runs and GFS have all started to align with euro and the 5pm news will have it going closer to SC now. Still not out of the woods but I'm much more confident in staying put.

If it stalls and slowly creeps north we could still a pretty significant amount of water in VA.

The other thing to consider is while the models are now largely in agreement, there's still 36 hours roughly until landfall. Even a brief jog to the north, which is impossible to predict, can have an outsize effect on conditions 50, 100 miles or more up the coast. Plus as you point out, with the expected weak steering currents leaving Florence in a drift or stall after landfall, a nudge to the north brings a lot more rain into Virginia, which may end up being the real story even if she landfalls as a Cat 5.

That said, the chances of major-hurricane conditions in Norfolk are a lot less than they were even 12 hours ago. I'd say we should hope that the trend remains south and west, though it's probably not appropriate to hope that someplace else gets plastered. But since a dramatic U-turn out to sea isn't in the cards ...
09-11-2018 03:05 PM
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Grommet Offline
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Post: #53
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
The vaunted Euro has gone as batshit crazy as the GFS was earlier this week.

[Image: Dm1nQZcWwAIE3j4.jpg]


They say there's nothing in place to really steer Flo. Cape Fear/ILM and then throw some darts.
09-11-2018 04:02 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #54
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-11-2018 04:02 PM)Grommet Wrote:  The vaunted Euro has gone as batshit crazy as the GFS was earlier this week.

[Image: Dm1nQZcWwAIE3j4.jpg]


They say there's nothing in place to really steer Flo. Cape Fear/ILM and then throw some darts.

That's actually not that bad. If I understand correctly, ensemble members of a model, either European or GFS, make projections based on the same data but with minor changes (slightly different steering currents, nearby low-pressure system being 50 miles further north, stuff like that). So you'll always have some sort of spread with the ensembles because there's so many of them. The only reason to be concerned is if a) they bounce around wildly between runs or b) the operational model has a dramatically different solution than most of the ensemble cast — if most of the ensemble has it landfalling in Morehead City but the operational puts it between Myrtle Beach and Charleston, it calls everything into question until they find a consensus.

And of course, if one model shows a much different solution than the others, you don't want to dismiss it out of hand (the Euro nailed Joaquin even though for days it was the only OTS model), but usually outliers are outliers for a reason.
09-11-2018 04:42 PM
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Grommet Offline
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Post: #55
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
(09-11-2018 04:42 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(09-11-2018 04:02 PM)Grommet Wrote:  The vaunted Euro has gone as batshit crazy as the GFS was earlier this week.

[Image: Dm1nQZcWwAIE3j4.jpg]


They say there's nothing in place to really steer Flo. Cape Fear/ILM and then throw some darts.

That's actually not that bad. If I understand correctly, ensemble members of a model, either European or GFS, make projections based on the same data but with minor changes (slightly different steering currents, nearby low-pressure system being 50 miles further north, stuff like that). So you'll always have some sort of spread with the ensembles because there's so many of them. The only reason to be concerned is if a) they bounce around wildly between runs or b) the operational model has a dramatically different solution than most of the ensemble cast — if most of the ensemble has it landfalling in Morehead City but the operational puts it between Myrtle Beach and Charleston, it calls everything into question until they find a consensus.

And of course, if one model shows a much different solution than the others, you don't want to dismiss it out of hand (the Euro nailed Joaquin even though for days it was the only OTS model), but usually outliers are outliers for a reason.

With nothing to drive it, Flo taking a hard Louie and a casual Ronnie with a zig-zag thrown in for good measure is asking an awful lot. There's probably a reason the guidance from the NHC is so different from this run.
09-11-2018 05:22 PM
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odu09 Offline
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Post: #56
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
Wed 5am update, looks like the Euro model is getting the nod again.

[Image: 092830_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

[Image: 06L_tracks_latest.png]
09-12-2018 04:41 AM
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Grommet Offline
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Post: #57
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
[Image: 092830WPCQPF_sm.gif]
09-12-2018 05:35 AM
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Grommet Offline
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Post: #58
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
Sits for 24+ hrs of S NC pounding the coast...nothing to drive it. Def better for HR, worse for CLT. All the models seem to be seeing the same thing. Maybe a high does develop and then shifts east.
09-12-2018 05:41 AM
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AdoptedMonarch Offline
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Post: #59
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
Wolves are very dangerous animals. No one should mess around when encountering a wolf. When the call goes out that a wolf is threatening the town, you expect the townsfolk to all stop what they are doing in order to respond to the threat. It is why the little boy who cries wolf is supposed to only do so responsibly.

We are still 2.5 days out from what MIGHT have been at most a glancing hit from Florence. Yet we've been under an evacuation order for the past 24 hours - - only to learn (what the models were already showing at a substantial percentage) that Florence is not coming our way.

Okay, little-boy Northam and his media-infatuated minions got it wrong. It happens. But I stand by my belief that they were at least 24, if not 48, hours too early in sounding the alarm.

And I'm really not much in the mood right now for any more lectures from The Virginian-Pilot or any of the local t.v. stations about how we need to take them seriously every single time the cry wolf. Their wet-our-pants hysteria has set me (and I'm sure others) back in a major way. "Oh well, isn't it nice that it turned out not to be a problem" is a little hollow for those who have to actually do work if we hope to see meaningful paychecks.
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2018 06:26 AM by AdoptedMonarch.)
09-12-2018 06:25 AM
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ODU_NYG Offline
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Post: #60
RE: OT- Hurricane Florence Discussion
That’s because you are only thinking about yourself and not the safety of an entire population of people.
09-12-2018 07:07 AM
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