(09-05-2018 09:38 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 08:02 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Rutgers eventually gets a golden ticket out from the Big Ten creating a golden ticket for UConn in the ACC.

The opposition to UCONN is firmly and deeply entrenched within the ACC. If UCONN gets an ACC invite it will be shortly after the ACC no longer exists as a power conference.

The ACC doesn't want to be the SEC. It wants to be the Pac-12 of the east coast, but with enough eyeballs to actually make money. It wants to compete for titles in ALL sports while having high academic standards.

... and there's the rub: UConn's academic standards are actually ACC-worthy. And they've proven they can win titles in major sports.

But UConn created a LOT of ill-will in the ACC with the lawsuits and public grandstanding against the ACC around 15 years ago. UConn fans like to think that has been forgotten, but anything but.

(09-06-2018 09:12 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The Big 12’s failure to invite Cincinnati and Louisville ranks up there with Penn State being denied membership in The Big East in terms of boneheaded conference expansion decisions.

Not so sure. I don't see how the Big 12 would be any stronger right now with Louisville and Cincy. In fact, if both applied for membership in the Big 12 right now - with each school able to get out of GOR's and the like with their current conferences - I'd bet they would be turned down. Sure, they would be competitive on the court and field, but that's not what really matters, money is.

And no, that's not because I'd want them to invite USF and UCF - even though i surely do want the Big 12 to invite us, I can't say they'd be stronger if they did - which is why they aren't.

(09-05-2018 08:51 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The Big 12 absolutely should have taken Louisville and Cincinnati (in addition to TCU and West Virginia). They would have gone back to twelve members and had a nice block of Louisville/Cincinnati/West Virginia. Basketball would have still been very strong, and football would have been able to go to a conference championship game earlier. Football could have gone in a number of different combinations division-wise. Rutgers would still be taken by the B1G (along with Maryland). Notre Dame still goes to the ACC (along with Syracuse and Pittsburgh).

The ACC would have been interesting though. I remember reading that some (football schools) within the ACC were against UConn because of their lack of success in football. Unfortunately, no one else would have really moved the needle. USF was awful in basketball (a likely no-vote from the Tobacco Road schools). Navy would have been interesting as a football-only member. Memphis/ECU/Temple, IMO, would not have received enough support either. Not sure where the ACC would have gone.

In the unique scenario where UConn gets left out of the ACC, and the Big East discontinues football, I'd imagine they'd go down the Independent route, and keep Olympic sports in the Big East. In this scenario, I could see the C7 adding Butler (coming off two national championship appearances), Xavier (regain the Cincinnati market), VCU (coming off a Final Four with Shaka Smart), Saint Louis (big market) and UMass (fellow public school, large enrollment, Calipari-history). I struggle envisioning UConn deciding to stay behind if they are the only public school.

I think they should have taken Louisville and BYU. Those were the two biggest brands available. It also would have created a weaker ACC as well. Not sure they would have picked up instead of UL.

(09-06-2018 08:58 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 12:55 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 08:51 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The Big 12 absolutely should have taken Louisville and Cincinnati (in addition to TCU and West Virginia).

Looking at it in hindsight: The Big 12 did the right thing in continuing with a 10 member conference.

If you value having a football conference title game, CCG rules now permit a 10 team conference to hold a CCG.

More importantly, the Big 12 is making about the same amount of money in total that they would be making if they had 12 members, but each of the 10 comes out way ahead because they split that pie 10 ways instead of 12. The Big 12 says that each member got about $34.3 million from the conference for 2017 (some of Baylor's money was withheld, but they'll get it eventually). So the conference distributed $343 million to its members. If they divided that amount of money among 12 members instead of 10, each would get only $28.6 million instead of $34.3 million. Each Big 12 athletic department gets almost $6 million more each year than they would get if the conference had 12 members.

Back then the media deal included a pro-rata clause.

... a clause that Fox signaled it would fight against if the Big 12 tried to add teams that the TV guys didn't want them to add, as we saw during the Big 12's 2017 expansion charade. The TV guys agreed to a poorly-written contract, and didn't like the possibility that the Big 12 might take advantage of a "loophole". Someone could argue that the Big 12 should have just added more teams and gone to war with Fox and ESPN for the extra money, but it seems to me that keeping the TV guys happy is a good move considering how much they pay the Big 12.

If the B1G had invited Maryland and Rutgers in 2010, instead of a couple of years later, I wonder if the ACC would have only invited Pitt as a replcement and stayed at 12 teams.

(09-06-2018 08:34 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  That is part of it. The bigger rub is that football generates 80% of the revenue. And GT, FSU, and Clemson have SEC in state rivals pulling down $15m more a year just in TV money. What will UConn do to close that gap? Not a dang thing. in fact by adding another mouth to feed it will probably make it worse. BC is against UConn because they want all of New England to themselves. VT even though they do not have an in-state SEC rival would likely side with the three schools who do first similar motivations. That's already five rock solid no votes. Game over.

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(09-06-2018 09:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  ... and there's the rub: UConn's academic standards are actually ACC-worthy. And they've proven they can win titles in major sports.

But UConn created a LOT of ill-will in the ACC with the lawsuits and public grandstanding against the ACC around 15 years ago. UConn fans like to think that has been forgotten, but anything but.

GTS is much closer to the truth - the lawsuit thing is wildly overrated on message boards because it's a good thing for people at home to get indignant about. Pitt was one of the ringleaders on that lawsuit and it didn't kill things on their end. There's actually people quoted on this - the ACC was originally looking at UConn and Syracuse to expand with, but BC pitched a fit about wanting to be the only New England school and Pitt was more palatable for the southern football schools, so Pitt wound up the good compromise candidate between Tobacco Road and the BC/South block. The second time around Clemson and FSU had a backroom deal to jump ship on the ACC in place and used it to pick the football school of their choosing for expansion regardless of academics.

Now there's unlikely to be expansion of any sort because the cable money just isn't there like it was previously - that was the big takeaway from the Big 12 "expansion" saga. It is what it is, had BC wanted a local rival or the ACC had a GOR in place at the time of their second round of expansion (of course, with a GOR Maryland doesn't leave to begin with) UConn may have gotten the call, but that ship's sailed. Their likely options going forward are the AAC long term, the Big East, or potentially being part of a Big 12 rebuild in the event Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas+ leave.

The B12 had one goal in 2011 - get back to 10 ASAP. They were given a pass when Colorado and Nebraska left. They didn't not want any possibility of opening the contract for further negotiation. TCU was in transition to the oBE but was readily available. WVU was the only school willing to go nuclear to get out of their current conference.

Rutgers was eerily quiet the whole time. I believe they had a "your next" agreement with the B1G. It was a well known secret that Maryland was talking to the B1G. All Rutgers had to do was wait for Maryland to say go.

The B12 had to know about Maryland. They had to know the ACC would move to replace them. Knowing how small the pool of candidates was, the B12 should have gone for the sweep and got Louisville, Cincy, WVU and Pitt. Even at if it meant taking a pay cut.

Backing up the bus just a little bit, it seems to me the biggest destabilizing move was the SEC breaking through the 12 member barrier by adding Missouri and Texas A&M.

Without that move, the PAC, B1G, SEC and ACC are all at 12. The Big 12 is at 10, and the Big East at 8. The Big 12 could very well have gone to 12 without raiding the Big East by adding Houston and TCU in an all-Texas division with a championship game as a bonus.

If what is now the P5 all had 12 members, would any of them have expanded further? Would an 8 member Big East have been considered a power conference when the CFP replaced the BCS? Would Notre Dame have stuck with the OBE football teams? Would the C7 have split to form the new Big East?

So many questions.

(09-06-2018 10:34 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 08:34 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  That is part of it. The bigger rub is that football generates 80% of the revenue. And GT, FSU, and Clemson have SEC in state rivals pulling down $15m more a year just in TV money. What will UConn do to close that gap? Not a dang thing. in fact by adding another mouth to feed it will probably make it worse. BC is against UConn because they want all of New England to themselves. VT even though they do not have an in-state SEC rival would likely side with the three schools who do first similar motivations. That's already five rock solid no votes. Game over.

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(09-06-2018 09:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  ... and there's the rub: UConn's academic standards are actually ACC-worthy. And they've proven they can win titles in major sports.

But UConn created a LOT of ill-will in the ACC with the lawsuits and public grandstanding against the ACC around 15 years ago. UConn fans like to think that has been forgotten, but anything but.

GTS is much closer to the truth - the lawsuit thing is wildly overrated on message boards because it's a good thing for people at home to get indignant about. Pitt was one of the ringleaders on that lawsuit and it didn't kill things on their end. There's actually people quoted on this - the ACC was originally looking at UConn and Syracuse to expand with, but BC pitched a fit about wanting to be the only New England school and Pitt was more palatable for the southern football schools, so Pitt wound up the good compromise candidate between Tobacco Road and the BC/South block. The second time around Clemson and FSU had a backroom deal to jump ship on the ACC in place and used it to pick the football school of their choosing for expansion regardless of academics.

Now there's unlikely to be expansion of any sort because the cable money just isn't there like it was previously - that was the big takeaway from the Big 12 "expansion" saga. It is what it is, had BC wanted a local rival or the ACC had a GOR in place at the time of their second round of expansion (of course, with a GOR Maryland doesn't leave to begin with) UConn may have gotten the call, but that ship's sailed. Their likely options going forward are the AAC long term, the Big East, or potentially being part of a Big 12 rebuild in the event Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas+ leave.

Not trolling here, but is a Big 12 of WVU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor really something worth leaving the AAC for?

USFFan

Woulda, shoulda, coulda... This is all ancient history. What I'd like to see the ACC do now is invite Cincy and UConn and be done with it. Geography, academics, markets, basketball, ascendant football, restored rivalries, and no couch-burning.

(09-06-2018 11:49 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  The B12 had to know about Maryland. They had to know the ACC would move to replace them. Knowing how small the pool of candidates was, the B12 should have gone for the sweep and got Louisville, Cincy, WVU and Pitt. Even at if it meant taking a pay cut.

IIRC, the Big 12 approached Pittsburgh, and Pitt then told the ACC about the Big 12's interest and that's one reason the ACC moved soon thereafter to invite Pitt and Syracuse, in September 2011. I'm guessing the Big 12 reached out to Pitt when they started thinking that Texas A&M (who announced their move to the SEC the week after the ACC announced Pitt and Syracuse) was going to leave? Maybe the Big 12 approached Pitt and West Virginia at the same time, thinking they might invite both?

(09-06-2018 12:06 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 10:34 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 08:34 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  That is part of it. The bigger rub is that football generates 80% of the revenue. And GT, FSU, and Clemson have SEC in state rivals pulling down $15m more a year just in TV money. What will UConn do to close that gap? Not a dang thing. in fact by adding another mouth to feed it will probably make it worse. BC is against UConn because they want all of New England to themselves. VT even though they do not have an in-state SEC rival would likely side with the three schools who do first similar motivations. That's already five rock solid no votes. Game over.

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(09-06-2018 09:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  ... and there's the rub: UConn's academic standards are actually ACC-worthy. And they've proven they can win titles in major sports.

But UConn created a LOT of ill-will in the ACC with the lawsuits and public grandstanding against the ACC around 15 years ago. UConn fans like to think that has been forgotten, but anything but.

GTS is much closer to the truth - the lawsuit thing is wildly overrated on message boards because it's a good thing for people at home to get indignant about. Pitt was one of the ringleaders on that lawsuit and it didn't kill things on their end. There's actually people quoted on this - the ACC was originally looking at UConn and Syracuse to expand with, but BC pitched a fit about wanting to be the only New England school and Pitt was more palatable for the southern football schools, so Pitt wound up the good compromise candidate between Tobacco Road and the BC/South block. The second time around Clemson and FSU had a backroom deal to jump ship on the ACC in place and used it to pick the football school of their choosing for expansion regardless of academics.

Now there's unlikely to be expansion of any sort because the cable money just isn't there like it was previously - that was the big takeaway from the Big 12 "expansion" saga. It is what it is, had BC wanted a local rival or the ACC had a GOR in place at the time of their second round of expansion (of course, with a GOR Maryland doesn't leave to begin with) UConn may have gotten the call, but that ship's sailed. Their likely options going forward are the AAC long term, the Big East, or potentially being part of a Big 12 rebuild in the event Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas+ leave.

Not trolling here, but is a Big 12 of WVU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor really something worth leaving the AAC for?

USFFan

Depends if they can retain their deals that make them a power conference. My guess is no. Honesty, it may benefit the American to take all of them and BYU (football only). This would create an 20-team conference that may be worth a great media deal.

North: BYU, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech
West: Tulsa, TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston
South: Tulane, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina
North: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Temple, Navy, Connecticut

(09-06-2018 12:06 PM)usffan Wrote:  Not trolling here, but is a Big 12 of WVU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor really something worth leaving the AAC for?

USFFan

Remember when A10 fans were speculating about whether they should take the whole C7 en masse or just cherry pick Nova/Georgetown/St. John's and cut the rest of the Big East remnants adrift?

The point isn't whether the resulting conference would still be considered a B1G/SEC peer. It's that:

1) Without naming names (I'm sure some would lump UConn here) those schools are going to be considered a step up from the bottom third-to-half of the current AAC. A conference consisting of the best AAC assets (plus any MWC schools they might be interested in) and the schools left in the Big 12 is going to be more attractive than the current AAC lineup.

2) Nobody wants to be the one left behind, and teams will jump when offered knowing the destabilizing effect will result in someone else saying yes if they say no.

UConn's current best-case scenario is probably something like UT/Tech/OU/KU leaving and the Big 12 rebuilding back to 12 with Houston/Florida Twins/Cincy/Temple/UConn. However, there's also a scenario that exists where Memphis gets one of the spots (perhaps UConn's) in that theoretical and someone's the odd man out, which is why nobody actually says no.

(09-06-2018 12:53 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 12:06 PM)usffan Wrote:  Not trolling here, but is a Big 12 of WVU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor really something worth leaving the AAC for?

USFFan

Remember when A10 fans were speculating about whether they should take the whole C7 en masse or just cherry pick Nova/Georgetown/St. John's and cut the rest of the Big East remnants adrift?

The point isn't whether the resulting conference would still be considered a B1G/SEC peer. It's that:

1) Without naming names (I'm sure some would lump UConn here) those schools are going to be considered a step up from the bottom third-to-half of the current AAC. A conference consisting of the best AAC assets (plus any MWC schools they might be interested in) and the schools left in the Big 12 is going to be more attractive than the current AAC lineup.

2) Nobody wants to be the one left behind, and teams will jump when offered knowing the destabilizing effect will result in someone else saying yes if they say no.

UConn's current best-case scenario is probably something like UT/Tech/OU/KU leaving and the Big 12 rebuilding back to 12 with Houston/Florida Twins/Cincy/Temple/UConn. However, there's also a scenario that exists where Memphis gets one of the spots (perhaps UConn's) in that theoretical and someone's the odd man out, which is why nobody actually says no.

Fair, and I don't know enough about the way the conference by-laws are written to be able to speak on it other than wild speculation, but unless the conference were able to secure a strong enough TV deal (to BePcr07's point), I have to think that it would be more lucrative for the schools left behind to split any exit fees that UT/OU/KU (I'd guess Okie State would be viewed as more attractive than TTech for that 4th spot, but Texas politics is what ended the Pac-16 plans, so who knows) pay and then join the AAC than it would be to convince AAC members to pay exit fees to join an iffy conference.

USFFan

(09-06-2018 12:53 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 12:06 PM)usffan Wrote:  Not trolling here, but is a Big 12 of WVU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor really something worth leaving the AAC for?

USFFan

Remember when A10 fans were speculating about whether they should take the whole C7 en masse or just cherry pick Nova/Georgetown/St. John's and cut the rest of the Big East remnants adrift?

The point isn't whether the resulting conference would still be considered a B1G/SEC peer. It's that:

1) Without naming names (I'm sure some would lump UConn here) those schools are going to be considered a step up from the bottom third-to-half of the current AAC. A conference consisting of the best AAC assets (plus any MWC schools they might be interested in) and the schools left in the Big 12 is going to be more attractive than the current AAC lineup.

2) Nobody wants to be the one left behind, and teams will jump when offered knowing the destabilizing effect will result in someone else saying yes if they say no.

UConn's current best-case scenario is probably something like UT/Tech/OU/KU leaving and the Big 12 rebuilding back to 12 with Houston/Florida Twins/Cincy/Temple/UConn. However, there's also a scenario that exists where Memphis gets one of the spots (perhaps UConn's) in that theoretical and someone's the odd man out, which is why nobody actually says no.

Actually UConn's best case scenarios involve 1) consolidation in the east with a Big 10/partial ACC and SEC/partial ACC group needing a few "extras." Big 10 + SEC + ACC=43 schools. They could split into 2 groups each with 2 conferences. UConn probably gets in;
or 2) Notre Dame wanting to join the ACC. UConn either gets to be #16 or there is some deal to keep the ACC at 14 by sending UL to the Big 12, giving UConn a shot at the Big 12's 12, 13 or 14th slot.

(09-06-2018 09:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  UConn's academic standards are actually ACC-worthy. And they've proven they can win titles in major sports.

Boy, I hadn't appreciated just how low the ACC dipped to take Louisville over UConn, which I think ends any of the "Pac-12 east" discussion.

Here are the 2018 USNWR rankings of the ACC full members:

Duke - 9
UVa - 25
Wake Forest - 27
UNC - 30
BC - 32
Ga. Tech - 34
Miami - 46
Syracuse - 61
Clemson - 67
Pitt - 68
VT - 69
FSU - 81
NC State - 81
Louisville - 165

Say what you want about the flaws in the USNWR methodology, but when 13/14 of your members are in the top 81 and then there are more than 81 additional institutions ranked ahead of your 14th member, that's pretty remarkable.

For comparison, here are the AAC schools and a few other schools who have been in constant realignment discussions:

Tulane - 40
UConn - 56
SMU - 61
Tulsa - 87
Temple - 115
Cincinnati - 133
USF - 140
UCF - 171
Houston - 192 (#mostrelevant)
ECU - 207
Memphis > 230
Wichita State > 230

(note - the USNA does not appear to be ranked)

BYU - 61
Nebraska - 124
WVU - 187
Boise State > 230

(the latter will hopefully end the discussion about Boise State ever getting that Pac-12 invite)

UConn clearly would fall right in the middle of the ACC, which makes it that much more stunning that Louisville ended up with the lifeline...

USFFan

(09-06-2018 01:33 PM)usffan Wrote:  Fair, and I don't know enough about the way the conference by-laws are written to be able to speak on it other than wild speculation, but unless the conference were able to secure a strong enough TV deal (to BePcr07's point), I have to think that it would be more lucrative for the schools left behind to split any exit fees that UT/OU/KU (I'd guess Okie State would be viewed as more attractive than TTech for that 4th spot, but Texas politics is what ended the Pac-16 plans, so who knows) pay and then join the AAC than it would be to convince AAC members to pay exit fees to join an iffy conference.

USFFan

Why? It'd be the existing AAC schools paying an exit fee, not the Big 12 schools - they don't care. Easier to split a TV deal 10-12 ways than it is to split it 20 ways (to say nothing of actually having to manage a 20-team conference). There's no scenario involving the AAC absorbing multiple Big 12 teams where it doesn't make more sense for the Big 12 teams to just invite whichever AAC/MW programs they find most attractive (plus BYU, if they were interested).

(09-06-2018 01:43 PM)usffan Wrote:  Say what you want about the flaws in the USNWR methodology

OK, I'll say it: US News' methodology is heavily biased in favor of private schools. If it has any use at all, it's only for comparing private schools to other private schools. It is pointless to use US News to compare private schools to public schools.

(09-06-2018 01:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 12:53 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-06-2018 12:06 PM)usffan Wrote:  Not trolling here, but is a Big 12 of WVU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor really something worth leaving the AAC for?

USFFan

Remember when A10 fans were speculating about whether they should take the whole C7 en masse or just cherry pick Nova/Georgetown/St. John's and cut the rest of the Big East remnants adrift?

The point isn't whether the resulting conference would still be considered a B1G/SEC peer. It's that:

1) Without naming names (I'm sure some would lump UConn here) those schools are going to be considered a step up from the bottom third-to-half of the current AAC. A conference consisting of the best AAC assets (plus any MWC schools they might be interested in) and the schools left in the Big 12 is going to be more attractive than the current AAC lineup.

2) Nobody wants to be the one left behind, and teams will jump when offered knowing the destabilizing effect will result in someone else saying yes if they say no.

UConn's current best-case scenario is probably something like UT/Tech/OU/KU leaving and the Big 12 rebuilding back to 12 with Houston/Florida Twins/Cincy/Temple/UConn. However, there's also a scenario that exists where Memphis gets one of the spots (perhaps UConn's) in that theoretical and someone's the odd man out, which is why nobody actually says no.

Actually UConn's best case scenarios involve 1) consolidation in the east with a Big 10/partial ACC and SEC/partial ACC group needing a few "extras." Big 10 + SEC + ACC=43 schools. They could split into 2 groups each with 2 conferences. UConn probably gets in;
or 2) Notre Dame wanting to join the ACC. UConn either gets to be #16 or there is some deal to keep the ACC at 14 by sending UL to the Big 12, giving UConn a shot at the Big 12's 12, 13 or 14th slot.

I'm trying to deal with situations that actually have a shot at playing out. Neither of those scenarios are actually happening. It's why I didn't break out the "Texahoma 4 to the PAC, Kansas to the B1G, and UConn balancing out Kansas as an eastern basketball add to their western basketball add" scenario that UConn fans like to dream about.

(09-06-2018 10:32 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the B1G had invited Maryland and Rutgers in 2010, instead of a couple of years later, I wonder if the ACC would have only invited Pitt as a replcement and stayed at 12 teams.

Probably.

UConn's problem of being hated for their piss poor handling of their litigation is one issue. There are certain ways of handling litigation in the South and Blumenthal violated those unwritten rules.

The real issue is that FSU, Miami, Clemson, NC State, GT, and VT do NOT want to go to Storrs every other year. There are almost no recruits and there is no silver lining of Boston. It not personal.

In a market footprint sense, wedged between BC and Syracuse, UConn adds relatively little to the ACC. Again, not personal.


And why do people keep talking about Navy as if they only play football and basketball. Just because they can't compete in basketball does not mean they don't in other sports like Baseball, women's sports, etc. If Navy did not play ACC basketball, but played all others, that would be okay.