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CliftonAve Online
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Post: #41
RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(10-09-2018 03:52 PM)ucbandguy Wrote:  Okay - question for the recruiting gurus.

the early NLI period is Dec 19 - 21 (2018)

Bowls with AAC ties include:
Dec 15 - Cure
Dec 18 - Boca Raton
Dec 19 - Frisco
Dec 20 - Gasparilla (CBS current projection for UC)
Dec 22 - Birmingham
Dec 22 - Armed Forces

finally
Dec 31 - Military
plus any NY6

So my question - if our most likely bowls are the ones in or near the NLI day, what effect does that have on recruiting and or signing? Did anyone follow how that affected the relevant teams last year?

The coaches will be busy with bowl practice and prep to hit the road for last minute recruiting. Last year, not having a bowl game gave our staff some extra time to court some late signees prior to the early signing period.

However, this year it is being projected the class is going to be smaller than the last couple classes-- plus the rules changed and transfers count against your 25 man limit per year. Like nearly all AAC teams we'll be active again in the transfer market.
 
10-29-2018 08:27 AM
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geef Offline
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
Does anyone know which bowls the American is obligated to send a team to (ie. are there any that the conference is absolutely required to fill?). Unless either SMU or Tulane win 3 of their last 4, the conference is stuck at 6 bowl-eligible teams. I think either Houston or UCF fill the NY6 game, so that leaves five teams for seven bowls.
 
10-29-2018 10:30 AM
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marcuscan Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(10-09-2018 03:52 PM)ucbandguy Wrote:  Okay - question for the recruiting gurus.

the early NLI period is Dec 19 - 21 (2018)

Bowls with AAC ties include:
Dec 15 - Cure
Dec 18 - Boca Raton
Dec 19 - Frisco
Dec 20 - Gasparilla (CBS current projection for UC)
Dec 22 - Birmingham
Dec 22 - Armed Forces

finally
Dec 31 - Military
plus any NY6

So my question - if our most likely bowls are the ones in or near the NLI day, what effect does that have on recruiting and or signing? Did anyone follow how that affected the relevant teams last year?

I suspect no real effect for us this year. Our class is pretty much set. From the lil bit of smoke signals I've seen it seems like just about everyone will be signing early. The proximity to bowl games doesn't seem likely to have an effect since they've spent so much of the last months keeping these guys locked in.

I think UC (and similar schools) will once again greatly benefit from this early signing period. Once we formally lock in these kids we'll be able to spend the post bowl game period up until NSD fishing for some cherry on top kids like we got last year.




mc
 
10-29-2018 10:40 AM
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dsquare Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
I have to admit from my glorious memories of being at the perfect season Pitt game at Heinz Field i'd love this:

Walk-On's Independence Bowl

Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
Dec. 27, 1:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Houston vs. Georgia Tech
Sherman: Pitt vs. Cincinnati
 
11-04-2018 06:58 PM
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doss2 Online
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
Most of us herein could predict the participants better than the so called experts. I saw one about 2 weeks ago that had UC v Ohio. Now we know that would be a rematch. I cannot ever remember a bowl rematch. I am sure it happened but likely when the tie ins were slotted and iron clad.
 
11-06-2018 12:16 AM
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OKIcat Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-06-2018 12:16 AM)doss2 Wrote:  Most of us herein could predict the participants better than the so called experts. I saw one about 2 weeks ago that had UC v Ohio. Now we know that would be a rematch. I cannot ever remember a bowl rematch. I am sure it happened but likely when the tie ins were slotted and iron clad.

Yep, the so called "experts" could care less about the middle of the pack and lower level bowls and don't even demonstrate knowledge of the contractual obligations in many cases.

My hope for UC is Military (ACC) or Birmingham (SEC) at worst. Best case: an even better P5 contract bowl obligation that can't be filled where they can slide UC in. Most years some swapping goes on that can allow that to happen.
 
11-06-2018 08:01 AM
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bctn8n Offline
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
I dont think Palm from CBS has updated his since the beginning of the season. Still has us vs FAU.
 
11-06-2018 08:23 AM
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marcuscan Offline
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-06-2018 08:01 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 12:16 AM)doss2 Wrote:  Most of us herein could predict the participants better than the so called experts. I saw one about 2 weeks ago that had UC v Ohio. Now we know that would be a rematch. I cannot ever remember a bowl rematch. I am sure it happened but likely when the tie ins were slotted and iron clad.

Yep, the so called "experts" could care less about the middle of the pack and lower level bowls and don't even demonstrate knowledge of the contractual obligations in many cases.

My hope for UC is Military (ACC) or Birmingham (SEC) at worst. Best case: an even better P5 contract bowl obligation that can't be filled where they can slide UC in. Most years some swapping goes on that can allow that to happen.

Agreed. They're not paying any real attention to the bowls we'd be associated with. they're just plugging in names





mc
 
11-06-2018 08:33 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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Post: #49
RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-06-2018 08:23 AM)bctn8n Wrote:  I dont think Palm from CBS has updated his since the beginning of the season. Still has us vs FAU.

Palm dislikes UC. He's a Purdue grad and a B10 shill. Heard him on talk radio about 8-10 years ago in Columbus make a lot of derogatory remarks about UC athletics and the university in general. Ever since I have cringed when I have heard him get on the radio with Lance or Mo down here, project our bowl destinations or do NCAA brackets involving UC.
 
11-06-2018 08:35 AM
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OKIcat Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-06-2018 08:35 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 08:23 AM)bctn8n Wrote:  I dont think Palm from CBS has updated his since the beginning of the season. Still has us vs FAU.

Palm dislikes UC. He's a Purdue grad and a B10 shill. Heard him on talk radio about 8-10 years ago in Columbus make a lot of derogatory remarks about UC athletics and the university in general. Ever since I have cringed when I have heard him get on the radio with Lance or Mo down here, project our bowl destinations or do NCAA brackets involving UC.

Pity poor Palm. I can at least understand his UC envy after the 'Cats knocked his Boilers out of the 2015 NCAA Tourney and watched Tubs' teams destroy them twice in football. Oh, the indignity for a B10 program!
 
11-06-2018 10:10 AM
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
WINS WIN 1 WIN 2 UCF WINS UC WINS UH WINS
UCF 8 NONE NONE PEACH BOCA BOCA
UC 8 NONE NONE MILITARY PEACH BIRM
UH 7 NONE NONE ARMED ARMED ARMED
USF 7 NONE NONE GASP GASP GASP
TEM 5 UCONN NONE BOCA MILITARY MILITARY
SMU 4 UCONN TULSA FRISCO FRISCO FRISCO
TUL 4 ECU NAVY CURE CURE CURE OR ?
MEM 5 TULSA NONE BIRM BIRM CURE OR ?
 
11-06-2018 10:17 AM
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skylinecat Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-06-2018 10:17 AM)doss2 Wrote:  WINS WIN 1 WIN 2 UCF WINS UC WINS UH WINS
UCF 8 NONE NONE PEACH BOCA BOCA
UC 8 NONE NONE MILITARY PEACH BIRM
UH 7 NONE NONE ARMED ARMED ARMED
USF 7 NONE NONE GASP GASP GASP
TEM 5 UCONN NONE BOCA MILITARY MILITARY
SMU 4 UCONN TULSA FRISCO FRISCO FRISCO
TUL 4 ECU NAVY CURE CURE CURE OR ?
MEM 5 TULSA NONE BIRM BIRM CURE OR ?

Huh?
 
11-06-2018 10:22 AM
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doss2 Online
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-06-2018 10:22 AM)skylinecat Wrote:  
(11-06-2018 10:17 AM)doss2 Wrote:  WINS WIN 1 WIN 2 UCF WINS UC WINS UH WINS
UCF 8 NONE NONE PEACH BOCA BOCA
UC 8 NONE NONE MILITARY PEACH BIRM
UH 7 NONE NONE ARMED ARMED ARMED
USF 7 NONE NONE GASP GASP GASP
TEM 5 UCONN NONE BOCA MILITARY MILITARY
SMU 4 UCONN TULSA FRISCO FRISCO FRISCO
TUL 4 ECU NAVY CURE CURE CURE OR ?
MEM 5 TULSA NONE BIRM BIRM CURE OR ?

Huh?

Try editing your post and the data will be in columns. When it is displayed it is jumbled because it was pasted from Windows.
 
11-06-2018 10:52 AM
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geef Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-06-2018 10:17 AM)doss2 Wrote:  WINS WIN 1 WIN 2 UCF WINS UC WINS UH WINS
UCF 8 NONE NONE PEACH BOCA BOCA
UC 8 NONE NONE MILITARY PEACH BIRM
UH 7 NONE NONE ARMED ARMED ARMED
USF 7 NONE NONE GASP GASP GASP
TEM 5 UCONN NONE BOCA MILITARY MILITARY
SMU 4 UCONN TULSA FRISCO FRISCO FRISCO
TUL 4 ECU NAVY CURE CURE CURE OR ?
MEM 5 TULSA NONE BIRM BIRM CURE OR ?

Doss, I hope you're not seeing this too late - if you're still conscious, push the button on the cord hanging from your neck. Help will arrive.
 
11-06-2018 10:58 AM
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ucbandguy Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
As of today, the ACC has 4 teams bowl eligible. UC, UCF, USF, and Houston.

2 teams have 5 wins, and presumably will be eligible. Temple, and Memphis.

2 teams have 4 wins, and will need to win 2 of their last 3 to become bowl eligible SMU and Tulane. (SMU plays UCONN and Tulsa, so they should make it. Tulane plays ECU and Navy, so you have to like their chances.)

No chance = ECU, UCONN, Navy, Tulsa.

Thus, with 7 bowl slots (plus NY6), the ACC has a maximum of 8 teams that might become eligible. We could fill all of "our" slots.

Now my question. If we don't fill all our bowl slots, or if a P5 slot opens up, which of "our bowls" would we leave unfilled?
 
11-06-2018 03:19 PM
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-06-2018 03:19 PM)ucbandguy Wrote:  As of today, the ACC has 4 teams bowl eligible. UC, UCF, USF, and Houston.

2 teams have 5 wins, and presumably will be eligible. Temple, and Memphis.

2 teams have 4 wins, and will need to win 2 of their last 3 to become bowl eligible SMU and Tulane. (SMU plays UCONN and Tulsa, so they should make it. Tulane plays ECU and Navy, so you have to like their chances.)

No chance = ECU, UCONN, Navy, Tulsa.

Thus, with 7 bowl slots (plus NY6), the ACC has a maximum of 8 teams that might become eligible. We could fill all of "our" slots.

Now my question. If we don't fill all our bowl slots, or if a P5 slot opens up, which of "our bowls" would we leave unfilled?

I would guess the one with the lowest payout.
 
11-06-2018 03:32 PM
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ucbandguy Offline
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
I normally don't pay that much attention to "Bleacher Report." However, the Nov 6 bowl projection by Kerry Miller shows some analysis and attention to detail - in stark contrast to several other projection articles I have read.

In short, he puts us in Annapolis - Military Bowl on Dec 31 against Georgia Tech.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2804...ons#slide0
 
11-07-2018 11:07 AM
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ucbandguy Offline
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
Last year's bowl payouts, as per Wikipedia

Bowls with AAC ties include:
Dec 15 - Cure - 751,000
Dec 18 - Boca Raton - 1,000,000
Dec 19 - Frisco - ?
Dec 20 - Gasparilla - 1,133,735
Dec 22 - Birmingham - 1,650,000
Dec 22 - Armed Forces - 900,000

Dec 31 - Military - 2,066,000

So, if we are looking for $, the Military Bowl looks best for UC. However, after sharing proceeds with the league, it might not make that much of a difference. It is good to at least get enough to cover the cost of going.

Of course, if we can get to the NY6, that might be a different matter money-wise.
 
11-07-2018 11:25 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-07-2018 11:25 AM)ucbandguy Wrote:  Last year's bowl payouts, as per Wikipedia

Bowls with AAC ties include:
Dec 15 - Cure - 751,000
Dec 18 - Boca Raton - 1,000,000
Dec 19 - Frisco - ?
Dec 20 - Gasparilla - 1,133,735
Dec 22 - Birmingham - 1,650,000
Dec 22 - Armed Forces - 900,000

Dec 31 - Military - 2,066,000

So, if we are looking for $, the Military Bowl looks best for UC. However, after sharing proceeds with the league, it might not make that much of a difference. It is good to at least get enough to cover the cost of going.

Of course, if we can get to the NY6, that might be a different matter money-wise.

I'd have to dig, but I am pretty sure after expenses and sharing revenue the only bowl game that results in a decent profit for a school is if you get to the Access Bowl. Geographical considerations are usually what drives who goes where for the other games. Based on geography the two that make the most sense for us or the Military and Birmingham.
 
11-07-2018 11:36 AM
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RE: Ridiculously early Bowl Projections
(11-07-2018 11:36 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(11-07-2018 11:25 AM)ucbandguy Wrote:  Last year's bowl payouts, as per Wikipedia

Bowls with AAC ties include:
Dec 15 - Cure - 751,000
Dec 18 - Boca Raton - 1,000,000
Dec 19 - Frisco - ?
Dec 20 - Gasparilla - 1,133,735
Dec 22 - Birmingham - 1,650,000
Dec 22 - Armed Forces - 900,000

Dec 31 - Military - 2,066,000

So, if we are looking for $, the Military Bowl looks best for UC. However, after sharing proceeds with the league, it might not make that much of a difference. It is good to at least get enough to cover the cost of going.

Of course, if we can get to the NY6, that might be a different matter money-wise.

I'd have to dig, but I am pretty sure after expenses and sharing revenue the only bowl game that results in a decent profit for a school is if you get to the Access Bowl. Geographical considerations are usually what drives who goes where for the other games. Based on geography the two that make the most sense for us or the Military and Birmingham.

As someone who hasn't shown much interest in AAC bowl tie in since the conference was formed - mainly because bowls were irrelevant to UC since its inception, is it safe to assume those with higher payouts would generally have a higher quality opponent?

And similar to golf tournament purses, the bowls with higher payouts have more prestige?
 
11-07-2018 12:30 PM
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