Another way to look at it is like the pros....go for it at the end to put yourself in a good position to win / tie w just a FG

1. Correct call. Take points.
2. Correct call. Take points.

You don't chase points.

Everyone wants to use the game is Frisco as an example of conservative calls costing JMU a game, well that's just flat out wrong. If every call is exactly the same and we make the FG attempt in the first half, JMU has the ball with a chance to win only down 17-16 at the end. And at that point given we had the ball first and 10 from about the 15, I'd say high likelihood JMU would be 2 time defending champs.

Absolutely wrong on the NC call...it was 3rd down! You take a shot for first down/TD every time w :06 to go...

I think this can be debated but to me the reason why we didn't go for it against North Dakota State and against NC State is because we know (the coaches) that we are as good or better than these teams. There is less urgency to go for it now when you know you are as good or better than the opponent. You don't have to try to bet the house to go for it because you know you will have another shot and you will stop the opposition and get the ball back. If JMU was over their skis against these teams sure you go for it there to try to steal a big score and stay in a game that you have no business being in or winning but that's not the case with this team.

I would really like to figure out how to score on 1st or 2nd down inside the 5, and eliminate this debate. The fact that we're even having this debate is the result of overly conservative play-calling in the red zone. Improve the TD efficiency, don't worry about kicking short FGs.

I am in the kick the first, go for it on the second camp.

However, as a counterpoint, we were going to have to score twice and stop them to win the game. If we score a TD there, we have to stop them to end the 4th AND we might have to stop them in OT if we don’t score. If we kick the FG, we probably only have to stop them in the 4th and only stop some Hail Mary type efforts if we go down and score. So I can’t argue too much with the call. We also had them in a couple of third down situations that they pulled out.

I'm wondering if later in the season, there will be a "Decision to Go for a 2 pt conversion" thread. Those can be really good.

(09-04-2018 07:30 AM)jmuroadwarrior Wrote:  I'm wondering if later in the season, there will be a "Decision to Go for a 2 pt conversion" thread. Those can be really good.

Those types of threads are all better threads to have than the following:

“OMG I though Withers was a defensive coach”

“How did we lose to Liberty in the playoffs”

“How did we lose to Liberty 52-10!”

(09-03-2018 10:48 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  If you’re in 4th and 1 and going for it out of a shotgun, them you may as well kick the FG. I HATE the shotgun on 4th and short..

This x100000000000. We need a package where the QB is under center

I'm really surprised by this. The first FG was the one that drove me nuts. It was, what, a foot? That's sneakable (like the ridiculous first down they gave NCST a few minutes later on a sneak) and if you don't make it, they're on the 3 yard line. If you make it you have first and goal from the 2 yard line -- effectively 3 shots at a 2-point conversion. If you get a TD there, it's, what, a 3 point game at that point? You've really tightened things up there.

The 2nd one was much different. It was 4th and goal from the 3. That's a much tougher attempt. Given the game situation you have to do it anyway, but I'd have kicked it there.

We came away with six points after having first and goal three times inside the 5. If we could not score a TD in nine downs, then kicking a field goal was the right call. Also, no one is mentioning the fumbled passing attempt inside the five on 3rd down. Execute that throw and the game is very different. We may have even had the lead at halftime instead of being down 17-7.

Can’t remember down and distance on our touchdown. I feel like we were near the 10.

on the 2nd 4th and goal, to win we needed, 1. a fg, 2. a stop and 3. a TD. You have to take the 90% FG, vs. the 50% probability TD try. Even with a TD, you are going to need a stop and a another score. If you dont convert the 4th and goal, you have dramatically decreased your win chances.

that said and for what it is worth, on the espn win probability, NC states win probability actually went up when we kicked the fg!!!

(09-04-2018 04:51 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  on the 2nd 4th and goal, to win we needed, 1. a fg, 2. a stop and 3. a TD. You have to take the 90% FG, vs. the 50% probability TD try. Even with a TD, you are going to need a stop and a another score. If you dont convert the 4th and goal, you have dramatically decreased your win chances.

that said and for what it is worth, on the espn win probability, NC states win probability actually went up when we kicked the fg!!!

Even with a FG you are going to need a stop and another score. Even with no score at all you are going to need a stop and another score. There's zero difference in any of the possibilities.

(09-04-2018 05:47 PM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  

(09-04-2018 04:51 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  on the 2nd 4th and goal, to win we needed, 1. a fg, 2. a stop and 3. a TD. You have to take the 90% FG, vs. the 50% probability TD try. Even with a TD, you are going to need a stop and a another score. If you dont convert the 4th and goal, you have dramatically decreased your win chances.

that said and for what it is worth, on the espn win probability, NC states win probability actually went up when we kicked the fg!!!

Even with a FG you are going to need a stop and another score. Even with no score at all you are going to need a stop and another score. There's zero difference in any of the possibilities.

how do you figure?

you need a 1. fg, 2. a stop and 3. a TD

just guessing at %'s


you are choosing between a 90% fg and a 50% Td

Scenario 1

you take the field goal 90%, and you need a stop (50% chance and a TD 40% chance 90*50*40 = a 18% win probability

Scenario 2 You go for the td
you miss the TD try, you need a stop 50%, a TD 40% and lets say we go to over time with a 50 / 50 chance to win, which is being generous
50x40x50=10%

Scenario 3

you make the td, you need a stop (50%) and then a field goal 60%
50x60= 30%

The sure thing field goal keeps you in the game, while missing a TD try all but kills your chances.

you can monkey with the %, but it remains that taking the fg keeps you in the game while missing the TD knocks you out.

Like I said, I can see both sides. Houston explained it very frankly today. He said that yes, they did think about going for it. However, we kicked and got them in 3rd and long and we blew a coverage and they made a big play. He chose to try to defend them and get the offense the ball back on a pretty short field with a chance to win. I'm fine with that. I honestly don't knock coaches for these either way.

On one hand, a coach knows his team better than anyone. On another, I think they have a few seconds to basically flip a coin in their head. I guess I lean to the thinking that if you don't get it down inside the 5 yard line, the other team has to go a long way and you've got a chance at good field position or a turnover deep in their territory. I don't know. That being said, nobody has paid me to coach yet.

(09-04-2018 08:03 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote:  Like I said, I can see both sides. Houston explained it very frankly today. He said that yes, they did think about going for it. However, we kicked and got them in 3rd and long and we blew a coverage and they made a big play. He chose to try to defend them and get the offense the ball back on a pretty short field with a chance to win. I'm fine with that. I honestly don't knock coaches for these either way.

On one hand, a coach knows his team better than anyone. On another, I think they have a few seconds to basically flip a coin in their head. I guess I lean to the thinking that if you don't get it down inside the 5 yard line, the other team has to go a long way and you've got a chance at good field position or a turnover deep in their territory. I don't know. That being said, nobody has paid me to coach yet.

He had to be feeling pretty good about his defense regardless of which decision he made. The TD we gave up at the end of the 1st half under 20 seconds left really hurt. Wish we could've held them to a FG attempt, which wasn't a guaranteed make as we learned in the game. Up until that final drive featuring the big play that broke our backs, the D had pitched a shutout in the 2nd half (read: near 25 minutes up until NCSU started that drive after we cut it to 4 pts).

Please don't take my comment to go for the TD as the absolute answer because it's not. I totally agree with DD and WP, there's no absolute right decision. To suggest there's only one way is simply inaccurate.

Clearly we are a bit off inside the 10...I'm sure these coaches will sort it by Frisco, but hopefully much sooner

Really good discussion so far.
Here are some other things I think about when these calls come up during games.
1- many people feel as if a 19 yard FG is automatic in college. It is not.
2- going for it on 4th and goal doesn’t necessarily mean you are trying to tie the game. You could also elect to go for 2 that late in the game and try to rip the heart out of the favored Wolfpack right then and there.

I’m not suggesting Houston becomes a loose cannon because he has obviously proved himself to be a great FCS coach, but a little more calculated risk could have helped the Dukes pull off the upset. The Dukes were trying to knock off a big boy team and they didn’t attempt any 4th downs all game. 3 punts by O’Kelley and 2 chip shot FG’s.

Of course, he could have gone for it with 7 minutes left, got denied and then lost the game 24-10 instead of 24-13.

The Dukes played way better than I thought they would especially after I found out 3 defensive studs were out before game time. To even be in the game was a huge testament to Houston’s ability to prepare a team even without multiple key players.

My opinion is this: I thought we looked better against NC State than any other time we played a 1A team in the past including VA Tech. It looked like two ACC teams out there. Our O line and D line beat theirs. Our special teams was at least as good if not better. We just happened to go up against a rare quarterback who was on target and perfect timing most of the game. They made a freaky number of third down conversions many of which we guarded very well. Our personnel is better than any other team in 1AA. Houston has recruited off the charts and we are stacked with 3 star FBS transfers. DeNucci is the real deal. 14 for 14 the first half and led the team in rushing. Riley is a first team All America in waiting. Lots of new contributors that are really good. We were in better shape and more physical than them. I think we run the table. Sue me if I'm wrong....

I like what I see and feel really good about a return to Frisco.