(09-04-2018 07:45 AM)Wear Purple Wrote: A few notes in no particular odor...
1. Last week the venues and dates were announced for the 4-team playoffs in D1A CFB for the next 8 years -- that's thru 2026.
2. While contracts can always be amended/adjusted, it is unlikely any movement/expansion in the D1A CFB from 4 teams will take place until the initial contract ends and/or is renegotiated for extension beyond the end.
3. The AAC Commissioner (Aresco) even stated he is not yet convinced the playoffs should expand beyond 4, which is a little surprising considering what his/their UCF team did last year. He said this back in January AFTER the playoffs were completed, btw. Maybe he'll change his stance. The fan in me would love to see D1A CFB expand to 8 or 12 teams, but the realist in me thinks it is unlikely to happen. And, if it does, the even stronger realist in me believes the G5 will not be invited with any automatic bids or guarantees.
4. Speaking of the AAC, I see no compelling reason for them to expand beyond their current configuration. When they added Wichita State for MBB to be the 12th member with Navy being the 12th for FB, I think they are pretty much set. The only thing that could shake things up is if UConn were to leave by dropping FB to Independent status and they join the Big East (mainly for hoops), but I don't see that happening. Likelihood less than 5% - at least for the next 8 years, perhaps beyond that.
5. JMU MBB needs to step up and quickly to improve the portfolio. UB&TC is a huge step. The quality of product on the floor is critical. JMU will look a whoooooole lot better to the schools that take MBB very seriously if we could go on a run over the next 8 years with multiple runs to the NCAAT. This upcoming winter is a critical season for Louis Rowe and the program's future (including needing to sign another strong class of recruits). Looking at the AAC, schools like Memphis, UConn, Cincinnati, Houston, Wichita State (half a vote???), etc., take MBB seriously and will be looking at that with great interest in terms of what you bring to the table. While the rest of JMU's Athletics portfolio (less baseball perhaps) is attractive, there's still no debate that FB and MBB are driving the bus - and likely always will.
All valid points just consider that:
A) Football often drives the bus with conference movement. Agreed that JMU MBB being respectable can only help and the new arena was a pre-requisite but the AAC would be adding JMU for their football program and the revenue from football for the conference dwarfs hoops.
Part of the reason why Umass makes some sense over others that could move without any disruption (Army, Buffalo, etc.) is their geographic fit and also based on some perception that they bring a good hoops program (although I'd argue that they really haven't been for some time).
They have an ex rivalry with Temple (Umass and Temple glory days) and a rivalry with UConn that could generate some hoops interest. They in a way offset JMU's poor hoops the same way JMU offsets their weak football. The two schools compliment one another and appease all members- i.e. adding one tough football program and balancing it with one cupcake (easier win for conference members) one tough hoops but beatable hoops team who won't kill your rpi and another hoops team who is an easy win but will drag down the rpi (i.e. ECU).
Bottom line root for Umass hoops this season to do well to make positioning this package deal that much more palatable.
B) Not sure how Wichita State and Navy would vote on conference changes that impact all sports and football but I am assuming their votes carry less weight than the other members
C) I don't think UConn has much of a leg to stand on at this point- they have no where to go really and their hoops program is in rebuild mode.
D) regarding the current playoff system- even without changes a move to the AAC makes sense for the opportunity to play in the NYD Bowl Game where the highest G5 gets to play a P5. I.e. UCF vs Auburn. That game alone is a boon for the conference and the school. The AAC is as well positioned to have a representative in the game as any non P5. While the current system isn't ideal if JMU somehow had an opportunity to join a conference with the inside track to that spot you take it. The exposure and revenue from that one game is so significant and if you ever win it literally make your program- Boise State over Oklahoma, UCF over Auburn. Now both are perennial top 25 schools.
E) there may be a benefit to expanding now for the AAC to have depth/insurance for the next shift where they could stand to lose Memphis, UCF, Houston and or Cincy and also in advance of their next media deal especially if the expansion will strengthen their football membership and give them exposure in other media markets. JMU is proactive in seeking the waiver and AAC is proactive in adding members.