The unofficial online home for fans of the University of Cincinnati Bearcats. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

Just because I'm a numbers guy (sometimes) and I had a few extra moments: was curious how our past history might figure into this coming season's win total. Going back 24 seasons when Rick Minter first took the helm (1994) through CLF's first season I discovered the following:

162 total program wins (includes bowls)
6.75 avg. wins/season
12 wins highest (1x)
2 wins lowest (2x)
7 wins most frequent (5x)

First year/second year win total per coach:

Minter
2/6

Dantonio
7/4

Kelly
10/11

Jones
4/10

Tubberville
9/9

Fickel
4/???

I understand that it isn't an apple to an apple comparing regimes based on specific circumstances and scheduling but in general there is solid evidence that CLF will improve the win total over last season and achieve closer to the season average wins total. Just my two cents...

WIN September 1 @ UCLA
WIN September 8 @ Miami (Ohio)* [Neutral Site: PBS]
WIN September 15 Alabama A&M
WIN September 22 Ohio University
LOSS September 29 @ UConn
WIN October 6 Tulane** [Homecoming]
October 13 Bye
LOSS October 20 @ Temple
LOSS October 27 @ Southern Methodist
LOSS November 3 Navy
LOSS November 10 South Florida
LOSS November 17 @ Central Florida
WIN November 23 East Carolina

6-6, A surprising win to start the season, but conference play will be the death of them. A bowl game in mid December against a Sun Belt team will find them 7-6.[/color]

(08-18-2018 11:42 AM)True Bearcat Wrote:  WIN September 1 @ UCLA
WIN September 8 @ Miami (Ohio)* [Neutral Site: PBS]
WIN September 15 Alabama A&M
WIN September 22 Ohio University
LOSS September 29 @ UConn
WIN October 6 Tulane** [Homecoming]
October 13 Bye
LOSS October 20 @ Temple
LOSS October 27 @ Southern Methodist
LOSS November 3 Navy
LOSS November 10 South Florida
LOSS November 17 @ Central Florida
WIN November 23 East Carolina

6-6, A surprising win to start the season, but conference play will be the death of them. A bowl game in mid December against a Sun Belt team will find them 7-6.[/color]

Highly likely wins: alabama, Miami, east Carolina. Likely wins include Ohio, UConn, and Tulane. 50/50 games would be southern Methodist and navy. Unlikely but possible would be Temple. Very unlikely would be usf, ucf, and ucla. Just as I predicted in the winter 7-5 is our low water mark with a possibility of 9-3.

(08-17-2018 08:02 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I think UC will finish 6-6 or 7-5. Beating Bama A&M is the only sure thing.

I think out of Miami, Ohio, UConn, SMU and ECU, they'll probably win 3 or 4.
I think out of the rest (UCLA, Tulane, Temple, Navy, USF, UCF) they'll steal at least 1, more likely 2.

Anything better is awesome. I think fewer wins than that is more likely that more wins, BUT I like their chances of being bowl eligible.

I agree with Mark's assessment; hoping for 7-5

Anything between 4-8 and 8-4 is possible. I can't see anything happening outside of that. 6-6 is what I'm going with.

We lose to Miami and OU in the same month, this board implodes, and we finish the year 3-9.

(08-22-2018 05:50 AM)Dannyboy Wrote:  We lose to Miami and OU in the same month, this board implodes, and we finish the year 3-9.

If that happens then UC is probably looking for a new coach again after the 2019 season.

I keep hoping that the UC finds a way to 7 or more regulars season wins and a bowl victory.

Have to beat Alabama A&M, Miami U, and Ohio U. Then in conference play the Cats have to take care of business against Tulane, UConn, and ECU. Steal a game at SMU or at home against Navy or USF and we have the progress needed to build the program.

(08-22-2018 05:50 AM)Dannyboy Wrote:  We lose to Miami and OU in the same month, this board implodes, and we finish the year 3-9.

If you are, care to make a friendly bet? There is no way in hell this team finishes 3-9. None.

L September 1 @ UCLA
W September 8 @ Miami (Ohio)* [Neutral Site: PBS]
W September 15 Alabama A&M
L September 22 Ohio University
W September 29 @ UConn
W October 6 Tulane** [Homecoming]
L October 20 @ Temple
L October 27 @ Southern Methodist
W November 3 Navy
L November 10 South Florida
L November 17 @ Central Florida
W November 23 East Carolina

I'm thinking 6-6.

L September 1 @ UCLA - BIG Loss
W September 8 @ Miami (Ohio)* [Neutral Site: PBS]
W September 15 Alabama A&M
W September 22 Ohio University - VERY Close W
W September 29 @ UConn
W October 6 Tulane** [Homecoming]
B October 13 Bye
L October 20 @ Temple
L October 27 @ Southern Methodist
L November 3 Navy
L November 10 South Florida - BIG Loss
L November 17 @ Central Florida - BIG Loss
W November 23 East Carolina

6-6...could very well be 5-7

(08-22-2018 07:39 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(08-22-2018 05:50 AM)Dannyboy Wrote:  We lose to Miami and OU in the same month, this board implodes, and we finish the year 3-9.

If that happens then UC is probably looking for a new coach again after the 2019 season.

I keep hoping that the UC finds a way to 7 or more regulars season wins and a bowl victory.

Have to beat Alabama A&M, Miami U, and Ohio U. Then in conference play the Cats have to take care of business against Tulane, UConn, and ECU. Steal a game at SMU or at home against Navy or USF and we have the progress needed to build the program.

Not a chance. Fickell could lose every game and he will still be here in 2019. His seat wont even be warm until next season, and likely the earliest he would be fired is after the 2020 season.

Agree, he deserves at least 3 years to show improvement. I think particularly given the qb situation and offensive line depth issues he inherited you have to give the new staff time to develop out of it. Key is to show improvement in play, eliminating errors, etc. Year 2 guys should be familiar with the systems and coaching. I'm not so focused on wins and losses this year as i want to see a more competitive and mistake free team.

(08-22-2018 09:54 AM)dsquare Wrote:  Year 2 guys should be familiar with the systems and coaching. I'm not so focused on wins and losses this year as i want to see a more competitive and mistake free team.

I am excited to see what this team looks like with some coaching staff stability. This seems like the first time since Butch Jones that we will have the same defensive coordinator.

Predicted final record ranked by percentage likelihood.

50% - 6-6
20% - 7-5
20% - 5-7
5% - 4-8
5% - 8-4

I think they Cats end up at 6-6. I'm liking what I'm hearing from camp so far, but think they have a lot of room to grow.

Losses: @UCLA, Temple, SMU, NAVY, USF, UCF
Wins: Miami, OU, Tulane, ECU, Uconn, AA&M

Team likely chokes one of my wins and steals one of my losses to go 6-6.

(08-22-2018 11:24 AM)djtothemoney Wrote:  I think they Cats end up at 6-6. I'm liking what I'm hearing from camp so far, but think they have a lot of room to grow.

Losses: @UCLA, Temple, SMU, NAVY, USF, UCF
Wins: Miami, OU, Tulane, ECU, Uconn, AA&M

Team likely chokes one of my wins and steals one of my losses to go 6-6.

Bolded, a real possibility in my mind. We'd soon forget about September losses to MAC schools if UC gets on a roll late and takes an unexpected win or two in conference to get bowl eligible. Finishing strong will bode very well for 2019.

September 1 @ UCLA LOSS (we're going to lose big here)
September 8 @ Miami (Ohio)* [Neutral Site: PBS] WIN (easy)
September 15 Alabama A&M WIN
September 22 Ohio University WIN (not buying the OU hype)
September 29 @ UConn WIN
October 6 Tulane** [Homecoming] WIN
October 13 Bye
October 20 @ Temple LOSS (i'm a believer in Coach Collins. he'll have his defense feast on Moore)
October 27 @ Southern Methodist WIN (really i'm thinking this is a toss up...but hope springs eternal.)
November 3 Navy LOSS (likely to be ugly for the good guys)
November 10 South Florida LOSS
November 17 @ Central Florida LOSS (super ugly....again)
November 23 East Carolina WIN


Our best win would be at SMU. We're still far behind our division's upper echelon. Pressure kinda mounts for a breakout season in Year 3.

7-5 is about as good as we can hope for, IMHO. 6-6 very likely.

Gotta come out the gates like gangbusters because the back end of the schedule is harsh.




mc

September 1 @ UCLA W
September 8 @ Miami (Ohio)* [Neutral Site: PBS] W
September 15 Alabama A&M W
September 22 Ohio University W
September 29 @ UConn W
October 6 Tulane** [Homecoming] W
October 13 Bye
October 20 @ Temple W
October 27 @ Southern Methodist W
November 3 Navy W
November 10 South Florida L
November 17 @ Central Florida L
November 23 East Carolina W

After watching the UC game, the Temple game, Navy, etc. 10-2 would not be a shock.

(09-01-2018 11:15 PM)doss2 Wrote:  September 1 @ UCLA W
September 8 @ Miami (Ohio)* [Neutral Site: PBS] W
September 15 Alabama A&M W
September 22 Ohio University W
September 29 @ UConn W
October 6 Tulane** [Homecoming] W
October 13 Bye
October 20 @ Temple W
October 27 @ Southern Methodist W
November 3 Navy W
November 10 South Florida L
November 17 @ Central Florida L
November 23 East Carolina W

After watching the UC game, the Temple game, Navy, etc. 10-2 would not be a shock.

As much as I love this win, UCLA may turn out to be a dud/we caught them when they had all their suspensions/injuries. Lots of football yet to be played but suddenly 8-4 or better certainly looks possible.

It was a great win and we're now ahead of the pace most of us predicted, but all we can definitively say at this moment is that "0-12" is off the table. Every other option is still possible.

Enjoy the win...Relax and enjoy the rest of the ride.