Underdog Bill Lee surges to win Tennessee GOP gubernatorial primary; pivotal Senate race takes shape

Quote:Underdog conservative outsider Bill Lee upset a crowded field of well-funded, better-known candidates to win Tennessee's Republican gubernatorial primary Thursday, sending shockwaves through a state where he was down double-digits in polls as recently as last month.

Lee was the only major candidate that had no prior political experience.

The Black and Boyd campaigns hit Lee hard with negative attack ads.

Lee responded with ads saying he would NOT engage in negative attacks.

I read Boyd and Black were going after each other with negative ads, and mostly ignoring Lee until right before the election.

Let's hope he stays positive through November, although I'm sure the Tennessee Republican party will be more than happy to pick up the negative ad quota by going after his Democratic opponent.

It was an ugly TV attack ad campaign.

Diane Black had all these clips of Trump thanking her and calling he up to speak. And then Boyd runs a clip of her on TV where she literally said "You can't build it" about the wall. She was toast the day that ran the first time.

I'll be voting for Karl Dean.

I was glad to see Lee Harris take the SC Mayor's office :-)

Diane Black is gone. Now we just need to get rid of Blackburn by electing Bredesen.

(08-03-2018 10:20 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  I'll be voting for Karl Dean.

Dean is, at least, willing to acknowledge the dysfunctional nature of the public school system in a way that is taboo among most Democrats.

(08-03-2018 10:20 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  I'll be voting for Karl Dean.

I was glad to see Lee Harris take the SC Mayor's office :-)

I'm sure you were.

I wonder if he'll follow through on his campaign promise to raise property taxes for all of Shelby County.

I do hope he maintains the pragmatism he showed as a state senator. When railed by his party and other Democrats for working with the Republican senate leadership he explained that, due to the overwhelming super-majority held by the GOP, the only way to accomplish anything for his constituents was to work with the senate leadership rather than fighting it.

The final results from TN showed the democrats getting their ass handed to them at the state level.

Bill Lee received more votes that Karl Dean, despite the fact that Dean got 75% of the democratic votes, and Lee only 36% of republican votes.

Marsha Blackburn received almost twice as many votes as Bredesen, despite Bredesen getting 95% of the democratic vote.

(08-04-2018 10:29 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The final results from TN showed the democrats getting their ass handed to them at the state level.

Bill Lee received more votes that Karl Dean, despite the fact that Dean got 75% of the democratic votes, and Lee only 36% of republican votes.

Marsha Blackburn received almost twice as many votes as Bredesen, despite Bredesen getting 95% of the democratic vote.

Primary voting is primary voting. Democrats generally vote in higher numbers in general elections. And most of the 'action' was in the GOP primary. Especially in Tennessee, where open primaries combined with a lot more action in the GOP primary drove turnout. Here's what happened in the last midterm, in a far more favorable environment for the GOP.

2014....GOP Primary voters 644k, Dems 227k. General election, GOP 850k, Dems 437k (US Senate race)

So the GOP gained 31 percent from the primary to the general and the Dems gained almost 100 percent.

And that was with a Democratic nominee with no money and no chance running against a popular and non-controversial incumbent

----

In this year, a controversial (and loathed by many - including many Republican voters) candidate is running for an open seat, against a popular and generally (and broadly) liked Democrat running with plenty of money. The Democrat also is better known than the Republican.

Blackburn got 612k votes, the Bredesen got 349k. Apply 2014 adder percentages to both candidates

Blackburn is still on top 802k to 675k. But if you make the assumption that Bredesen takes all the Dem voters who voted for someone else in the primary (likely) you get to 802k to 737k. That leaves the non-Blackburn GOP voters. Which I think will be split 50-50 (which I think is generous to Blackburn - I thnk a majority of them will be voting for Bredesen). Pettegrew was a name on the ballot that "wasn't Marsha Blackburn"

So if primary to general numbers simply held at the same level as 2014, then Blackburn would have a projected 52-48 win in November.

Do you think that the Dems can improve on their projected turnout numbers between the primary and the general. I think thats certainly possible. And do you think the 112k who voted for a no campaign, little known, name on the ballot against Blackburn really did so because they just wanted to support him? If those break 60-40 Bredesen's way, and 2014 primary to general numbers hold steady....Bredesen wins.


52-48 Blackburn is probably where the race is now. And Blackburn is by no means a shoe in at this point.

Marsha, Marsha, Marsha is a lock.

After Corker, everyone is going to vote for a real Republican.

Phil would be Corker on steroids.

(08-04-2018 10:29 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The final results from TN showed the democrats getting their ass handed to them at the state level.

Bill Lee received more votes that Karl Dean, despite the fact that Dean got 75% of the democratic votes, and Lee only 36% of republican votes.

Marsha Blackburn received almost twice as many votes as Bredesen, despite Bredesen getting 95% of the democratic vote.

both candidates brought up Memphis multiple times in their speeches and both seem like good guys so I'm OK with whomever wins that race...Bill Lee seems like a nice dude.

(08-04-2018 04:35 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  

(08-04-2018 10:29 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The final results from TN showed the democrats getting their ass handed to them at the state level.

Bill Lee received more votes that Karl Dean, despite the fact that Dean got 75% of the democratic votes, and Lee only 36% of republican votes.

Marsha Blackburn received almost twice as many votes as Bredesen, despite Bredesen getting 95% of the democratic vote.

both candidates brought up Memphis multiple times in their speeches and both seem like good guys so I'm OK with whomever wins that race...Bill Lee seems like a nice dude.

Both are good candidates. It's bizzaro world in Tennessee. A Democrat from Tennessee is better than a Republican from Vermont. It is what it is.