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loki_the_bubba Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Predictions
After 22 votes we have an average of

4.8 - 8.2
08-02-2018 10:33 AM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Predictions
(08-02-2018 10:33 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  After 22 votes we have an average of

4.8 - 8.2

4.8 wins would be unconventional.
08-02-2018 10:52 AM
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loki_the_bubba Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Predictions
(08-02-2018 10:52 AM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 10:33 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  After 22 votes we have an average of

4.8 - 8.2

4.8 wins would be unconventional.

And Intellectually Brutal
08-02-2018 10:58 AM
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temchugh Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Predictions
(08-02-2018 09:58 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 09:56 AM)temchugh Wrote:  Walt - splitting the difference between your prediction and mine yields 4.5 wins. You have the over and I have the under.

How about a friendly wager* - the loser donates an extra $100 to the Owl Club in honor of the winner?

Tom

* - fine print: intended in the spirit of fun and support of Rice Athletics. Donation is in addition to otherwise planned giving. No worries if you are not comfortable with this sort of thing.

Sure-- you're on!

I very much hope that I'm the one who writes the check.
08-02-2018 11:46 AM
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Gravy Owl Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Predictions
The offense has some solid RBs and WRs but a mostly young OL and a huge question mark at QB. Defense has some players up front but a lot of uncertainty in the back 6 or 7.

Another perspective is that we lost 4 players to stronger programs, 2 to the NFL (I don’t know if either will make the 53-man rosters but they were both super-productive last year), one to the CFL, plus a couple other capable seniors. That is an astonishing drain for a team that was believed to lack talent in the first place. It is an indictment of Bailiff, but it is also worrisome about the overall abilities of the other players, many of whom will be on the field this year.

For all of the Bailiff camp’s complaining about what he inherited in 2007 — which included Chase Clement, Biletnikoff finalist Jarett Dillard, a full complement of proven OL with even some experienced depth, 2 defensive stars in Brian Raines and Andrew Sendejo, plus James Casey who was a wild card at the time but turned out to be quite the gift from Todd Graham — he left Bloomgren 0 nationally-recognized guys, maybe 3 who look like all-conference candidates on offense or defense, and a mess at the most important position.

Coaching and morale can go a long way, and the schedule is not tough by typical FBS standards. Still, there are a lot of spots where we’re relying on either last year’s non-stars or freshman, and it is unlikely that all of the freshmen will pan out (that’s a general observation, not anything specific to this year’s Rice class).

4-9.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2018 01:37 PM by Gravy Owl.)
08-02-2018 01:36 PM
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WestGrayStreetOwl Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Predictions
(08-02-2018 10:58 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 10:52 AM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 10:33 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  After 22 votes we have an average of

4.8 - 8.2

4.8 wins would be unconventional.

And Intellectually Brutal

I predict between e and 2pi wins
08-02-2018 03:13 PM
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Kayjay Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Predictions
My main Rice domain for comment is Men's Hoops but this is a fun thread to speculate, so I am going with a 5-win season, with an unexpected victory #2 coming at Hawaii as Ken Hatfield makes a surprise return to the sidelines and Hawaii has no answer for a revamped triple option offense, led by Benji Wood and Robbie Beck, who both decided to come back for one game as graduate students!
08-02-2018 03:26 PM
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Pan95 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Predictions
(08-02-2018 01:36 PM)Gravy Owl Wrote:  The offense has some solid RBs and WRs but a mostly young OL and a huge question mark at QB. Defense has some players up front but a lot of uncertainty in the back 6 or 7.

Another perspective is that we lost 4 players to stronger programs, 2 to the NFL (I don’t know if either will make the 53-man rosters but they were both super-productive last year), one to the CFL, plus a couple other capable seniors. That is an astonishing drain for a team that was believed to lack talent in the first place. It is an indictment of Bailiff, but it is also worrisome about the overall abilities of the other players, many of whom will be on the field this year.

For all of the Bailiff camp’s complaining about what he inherited in 2007 — which included Chase Clement, Biletnikoff finalist Jarett Dillard, a full complement of proven OL with even some experienced depth, 2 defensive stars in Brian Raines and Andrew Sendejo, plus James Casey who was a wild card at the time but turned out to be quite the gift from Todd Graham — he left Bloomgren 0 nationally-recognized guys, maybe 3 who look like all-conference candidates on offense or defense, and a mess at the most important position.

Coaching and morale can go a long way, and the schedule is not tough by typical FBS standards. Still, there are a lot of spots where we’re relying on either last year’s non-stars or freshman, and it is unlikely that all of the freshmen will pan out (that’s a general observation, not anything specific to this year’s Rice class).

4-9.

I don't completely disagree, but were Clement and Dillard nationally recognized going into year one with Bailiff? Also, Bailiff recruited Scott Solomon, Cheta Ozougwu, Bryce Callahan, Philip Gaines, Charles Ross, Jordan Taylor, Chris Boswell, Scott Mitchell, Luke Willson, etc.

With that said, it's kind of alarming to realize that while Bailiff recruited well, the development of players on the collegiate level was severely lacking relative to their post-collegiate success (understatement of the year). It's also very early, but it appears that development will be a strength among the other strengths that Bloomgren brings to the table (we will see first hand August 25th). Therefore, I am cautiously optimistic about the following players:
1. Zach Abercrumbia
2. Aaron Cephus
3. Emmanuel Esukpa
4. Jordan Myers
5. George Nyakwol
6. Uzomi Osuji
7. Joseph Dill

It's too bad Miklo Smalls did not come back because it would have been very interesting to see what dividends better coaching would have paid with him. As for the other QBs, I'm taking a wait and see approach.

I think if nothing changes developmentally from last year to this year, I'm hard pressed to find 2 wins...UTEP and PVAM. On the other hand, if, as we all hope, in game management and decisions combined with talented but previously underdeveloped players and a re-emphasis on special teams comes together, I think we could squeeze out 8 wins and maybe a bowl win. So somewhere in the middle...5 wins.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2018 04:08 PM by Pan95.)
08-02-2018 04:01 PM
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cr11owl Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Predictions
(08-02-2018 04:01 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 01:36 PM)Gravy Owl Wrote:  The offense has some solid RBs and WRs but a mostly young OL and a huge question mark at QB. Defense has some players up front but a lot of uncertainty in the back 6 or 7.

Another perspective is that we lost 4 players to stronger programs, 2 to the NFL (I don’t know if either will make the 53-man rosters but they were both super-productive last year), one to the CFL, plus a couple other capable seniors. That is an astonishing drain for a team that was believed to lack talent in the first place. It is an indictment of Bailiff, but it is also worrisome about the overall abilities of the other players, many of whom will be on the field this year.

For all of the Bailiff camp’s complaining about what he inherited in 2007 — which included Chase Clement, Biletnikoff finalist Jarett Dillard, a full complement of proven OL with even some experienced depth, 2 defensive stars in Brian Raines and Andrew Sendejo, plus James Casey who was a wild card at the time but turned out to be quite the gift from Todd Graham — he left Bloomgren 0 nationally-recognized guys, maybe 3 who look like all-conference candidates on offense or defense, and a mess at the most important position.

Coaching and morale can go a long way, and the schedule is not tough by typical FBS standards. Still, there are a lot of spots where we’re relying on either last year’s non-stars or freshman, and it is unlikely that all of the freshmen will pan out (that’s a general observation, not anything specific to this year’s Rice class).

4-9.

I don't completely disagree, but were Clement and Dillard nationally recognized going into year one with Bailiff? Also, Bailiff recruited Scott Solomon, Cheta Ozougwu, Bryce Callahan, Philip Gaines, Charles Ross, Jordan Taylor, Chris Boswell, Scott Mitchell, Luke Willson, etc.

With that said, it's kind of alarming to realize that while Bailiff recruited well, the development of players on the collegiate level was severely lacking relative to their post-collegiate success (understatement of the year). It's also very early, but it appears that development will be a strength among the other strengths that Bloomgren brings to the table (we will see first hand August 25th). Therefore, I am cautiously optimistic about the following players:
1. Zach Abercrumbia
2. Aaron Cephus
3. Emmanuel Esukpa
4. Jordan Myers
5. George Nyakwol
6. Uzomi Osuji
7. Joseph Dill

It's too bad Miklo Smalls did not come back because it would have been very interesting to see what dividends better coaching would have paid with him. As for the other QBs, I'm taking a wait and see approach.

I think Aaron Cephus will be the best receiver in the conference if we have someone to throw to him.
08-02-2018 04:05 PM
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Intellectual_Brutality Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Predictions
Going with 3-4 wins. I believe in Bloomgren, and the recruiting is looking much better than before, but the cupboard is just too bare.
08-02-2018 05:08 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Predictions
Everybody, including me, is assuming wins over UTEP and PVAM. But PV is an unknown quality, and UTEP, like us, has a new coach, and I doubt he is continuing the old coach's program.
08-02-2018 05:42 PM
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Gravy Owl Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Predictions
(08-02-2018 04:01 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  I don't completely disagree, but were Clement and Dillard nationally recognized going into year one with Bailiff? Also, Bailiff recruited Scott Solomon, Cheta Ozougwu, Bryce Callahan, Philip Gaines, Charles Ross, Jordan Taylor, Chris Boswell, Scott Mitchell, Luke Willson, etc.

With that said, it's kind of alarming to realize that while Bailiff recruited well, the development of players on the collegiate level was severely lacking relative to their post-collegiate success (understatement of the year). It's also very early, but it appears that development will be a strength among the other strengths that Bloomgren brings to the table (we will see first hand August 25th). Therefore, I am cautiously optimistic about the following players:
1. Zach Abercrumbia
2. Aaron Cephus
3. Emmanuel Esukpa
4. Jordan Myers
5. George Nyakwol
6. Uzomi Osuji
7. Joseph Dill

It's too bad Miklo Smalls did not come back because it would have been very interesting to see what dividends better coaching would have paid with him. As for the other QBs, I'm taking a wait and see approach.

Dillard (Biletnikoff finalist) and maybe Sendejo (honorable mention Freshman All-America) were nationally recognized in 2006. Clement was not, but he was very good when healthy. Let me put it this way: few if any Rice fans were worried about the ability of the starting QB going into 2007.

I agree that Bailiff recruited some excellent players, but it’s telling that the guys in your first paragraph were all from the 2007-2010 classes. They have been gone for several years, and their talent level was not sustained.

The 3 players I had in mind were Cephus, Austin Walter, and Roe Wilkins. Maybe should have added Abercrumbia. Cautious optimism is reasonable for the other guys you mentioned, but there just aren’t many guys with high floors.

I somewhat agree about Smalls. Despite his disastrous start, he was ultimately Rice’s best QB last year IMO. But it wasn’t clear-cut, and my sense is that Bloomgren prefers a tall pocket passer, so who knows how that would have played out. While we’re on the subject of might-have-been QBs, Jeremy Jones would have been a senior this year. I have no idea how good he would have been, but he certainly had the height. Obviously that’s all moot.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2018 06:23 PM by Gravy Owl.)
08-02-2018 06:22 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Predictions
FWIW Jeremy Jones could not throw a football well enough after his shoulder surgery to play QB at the D1 level.

He had surgery in August 2014, didn’t practice in Fall 2014, joined the hoops team in November 2014, and practiced at WR in spring 2015.
08-02-2018 06:49 PM
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HawaiiOwl Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Predictions
(08-02-2018 05:42 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Everybody, including me, is assuming wins over UTEP and PVAM. But PV is an unknown quality, and UTEP, like us, has a new coach, and I doubt he is continuing the old coach's program.

so, are you cautiously optimistic?
08-02-2018 07:00 PM
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Pan95 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Predictions
Not to disrespect PVAM or UTEP, but if it is unreasonable to project wins over those teams, then we are in for a far longer rebuilding process than we initially hoped.
08-02-2018 07:04 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Predictions
There’s a not-insane argument to be made that UTEP has slightly more talent.

But then they also have a coach who couldn’t win at one of the best G5 jobs...
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2018 07:08 PM by ExcitedOwl18.)
08-02-2018 07:08 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Predictions
I'm not going to predict a win total, but if Preston Gordon, JT Ibe and VJ Banks were good enough to transfer to Texas Tech, South Carolina and Colorado State, respectively, I'd say there is a lot more talent coming back on defense than people are giving us credit.
Looking at the stats of some of the last few games of last year, guys like Martin Nwakamma, Houston Robert, Roe Wilkins, Brandon Douglas-Dotson and D'Angelo Ellis were out-playing those power 5 transfers at the end of the season. We have experience returning on defense.

I am worried about our offensive experience, particularly on the offensive line. But I am hopeful that some of the guys who are currently listed as starters can be effective run blockers. I don't know how good our pass blocking will be but having a fullback in there all the time might help in that regard.
08-02-2018 07:16 PM
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Gravy Owl Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Predictions
(08-02-2018 06:49 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  FWIW Jeremy Jones could not throw a football well enough after his shoulder surgery to play QB at the D1 level.

He had surgery in August 2014, didn’t practice in Fall 2014, joined the hoops team in November 2014, and practiced at WR in spring 2015.

Thanks. I knew he was switched to WR but didn’t know the background.
08-02-2018 09:21 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #59
Predictions
(08-02-2018 03:13 PM)WestGrayStreetOwl Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 10:58 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 10:52 AM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  
(08-02-2018 10:33 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  After 22 votes we have an average of

4.8 - 8.2

4.8 wins would be unconventional.

And Intellectually Brutal

I predict between e and 2pi wins


Mmmmmm, pi
08-02-2018 09:38 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #60
Predictions
My official prediction is 6-7 regular season (plus a bowl win to make it 7-7.

I will be following our special teams closely (win special teams and hold your own in the other phases and you give yourself a chance in every game). I will also predict that we go 12-1 in special teams play (13-1 including the bowl).

I also posted a game-by-game prediction over on the conference board and somehow came up with 9 wins. I’ll call that my high end. But I’ll be happy as long as we double last year’s win total. And win special teams 12 out of 13 times out. :)
08-02-2018 09:48 PM
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