(07-29-2018 03:29 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  no....we have bud/miller tractor trailers that stop at all of our quick stops in the 100k locale....

I work in the field now......I see it every day....

do you realize how much beer we drink here.......

the brewery ships to the distributor.....if that's what you were talking about, so be it....

however, you provided nothing other than 2000 cases....that could easily be done in a day here or any large metro area in a day.....

as I stated before, I can see retrofitting for certain situations.....however, there isn't a snowballs you can make it work within multiple stops with any decent payload.....

The store will unload it. Or, they can pay extra and have one of the Amazon warehouse style robots deliver it to them (probably includes fairly hefty setup fee for precise mapping of parking lot and entrance to store room). The savings is that your **** cost way less to get there in the first place now. And even if you pay the setup fees I imagine you break even quite quickly compared to human delivery.

(07-29-2018 04:18 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 03:29 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  no....we have bud/miller tractor trailers that stop at all of our quick stops in the 100k locale....

I work in the field now......I see it every day....

do you realize how much beer we drink here.......

the brewery ships to the distributor.....if that's what you were talking about, so be it....

however, you provided nothing other than 2000 cases....that could easily be done in a day here or any large metro area in a day.....

as I stated before, I can see retrofitting for certain situations.....however, there isn't a snowballs you can make it work within multiple stops with any decent payload.....

The store will unload it. Or, they can pay extra and have one of the Amazon warehouse style robots deliver it to them (probably includes fairly hefty setup fee for precise mapping of parking lot and entrance to store room). The savings is that your **** cost way less to get there in the first place now. And even if you pay the setup fees I imagine you break even quite quickly compared to human delivery.

do you realize how many vendors run delivery routes daily......

you need to bone up on this matter....

in your scenario, the seller bears the additional labor cost......ain't happenin'.....nor is it prudent...

(07-29-2018 04:34 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 04:18 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 03:29 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  no....we have bud/miller tractor trailers that stop at all of our quick stops in the 100k locale....

I work in the field now......I see it every day....

do you realize how much beer we drink here.......

the brewery ships to the distributor.....if that's what you were talking about, so be it....

however, you provided nothing other than 2000 cases....that could easily be done in a day here or any large metro area in a day.....

as I stated before, I can see retrofitting for certain situations.....however, there isn't a snowballs you can make it work within multiple stops with any decent payload.....

The store will unload it. Or, they can pay extra and have one of the Amazon warehouse style robots deliver it to them (probably includes fairly hefty setup fee for precise mapping of parking lot and entrance to store room). The savings is that your **** cost way less to get there in the first place now. And even if you pay the setup fees I imagine you break even quite quickly compared to human delivery.

do you realize how many vendors run delivery routes daily......

you need to bone up on this matter....

in your scenario, the seller bears the additional labor cost......ain't happenin'.....nor is it prudent...

If you're a daily customer we throw in the delivery robot setup at no cost.

(07-29-2018 04:38 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 04:34 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 04:18 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 03:29 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  no....we have bud/miller tractor trailers that stop at all of our quick stops in the 100k locale....

I work in the field now......I see it every day....

do you realize how much beer we drink here.......

the brewery ships to the distributor.....if that's what you were talking about, so be it....

however, you provided nothing other than 2000 cases....that could easily be done in a day here or any large metro area in a day.....

as I stated before, I can see retrofitting for certain situations.....however, there isn't a snowballs you can make it work within multiple stops with any decent payload.....

The store will unload it. Or, they can pay extra and have one of the Amazon warehouse style robots deliver it to them (probably includes fairly hefty setup fee for precise mapping of parking lot and entrance to store room). The savings is that your **** cost way less to get there in the first place now. And even if you pay the setup fees I imagine you break even quite quickly compared to human delivery.

do you realize how many vendors run delivery routes daily......

you need to bone up on this matter....

in your scenario, the seller bears the additional labor cost......ain't happenin'.....nor is it prudent...

If you're a daily customer we throw in the delivery robot setup at no cost.

again.....one day that's plausible.......it won't happen like that anytime soon....

regardless, it becomes a burden shift that will benefit humans in the long term as long as the USD remains relevant.....

go back to the late 19th century and prior.....most were farmers....now look at today.....

I simply don't see what you do as quickly, nor do I see job elimination.....I see job redistribution.....

it all ties into why our education system needs a major overhaul as many have discussed over the last couple of years.....

(07-29-2018 04:46 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  again.....one day that's plausible.......it won't happen like that anytime soon....

regardless, it becomes a burden shift that will benefit humans in the long term as long as the USD remains relevant.....

go back to the late 19th century and prior.....most were farmers....now look at today.....

I simply don't see what you do as quickly, nor do I see job elimination.....I see job redistribution.....

it all ties into why our education system needs a major overhaul as many have discussed over the last couple of years.....

I agree with you in the long term absolutely 100%. Nobody wants to go back to mining with pickaxes. But those were TREMENDOUS capital shifts that took decades to occur. The barrier to entry for anything automated is only shrinking every single year as technology advances. When the break even point occurs, it'll tip to automation very very quickly. Because every single year after that it will only be more profitable. But because this stuff is silicon and software backed we're not talking about something you need 5 years to construct and deploy like a Tunnel Boaring Machine. With software and silicon you're talking a doubling every 12-18 months. Let's throw Moore's Law half way out the window .... you're doubling every 24 months. You're talking about displacing *millions* in a time frame of only a few years. That's highly politically disruptive and destabilizing. And what you and I know doesn't mean two sh*ts in an election if there's enough pissed off people out of work. And nothing wakes up the American voting public quite like the fresh smell of unemployment.

(07-29-2018 06:05 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 04:46 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  again.....one day that's plausible.......it won't happen like that anytime soon....

regardless, it becomes a burden shift that will benefit humans in the long term as long as the USD remains relevant.....

go back to the late 19th century and prior.....most were farmers....now look at today.....

I simply don't see what you do as quickly, nor do I see job elimination.....I see job redistribution.....

it all ties into why our education system needs a major overhaul as many have discussed over the last couple of years.....

I agree with you in the long term absolutely 100%. Nobody wants to go back to mining with pickaxes. But those were TREMENDOUS capital shifts that took decades to occur. The barrier to entry for anything automated is only shrinking every single year as technology advances. When the break even point occurs, it'll tip to automation very very quickly. Because every single year after that it will only be more profitable. But because this stuff is silicon and software backed we're not talking about something you need 5 years to construct and deploy like a Tunnel Boaring Machine. With software and silicon you're talking a doubling every 12-18 months. Let's throw Moore's Law half way out the window .... you're doubling every 24 months. You're talking about displacing *millions* in a time frame of only a few years. That's highly politically disruptive and destabilizing. And what you and I know doesn't mean two sh*ts in an election if there's enough pissed off people out of work. And nothing wakes up the American voting public quite like the fresh smell of unemployment.

don't disagree with any of that other than I see displacement and redistributed labor....I know how fast it can move.....I did it....

#DJTexperiment

I think we pretty much agree......just not how it plays out moving forward.....

I'm currently very optimistic moving forward.....it's obvious you are not.....it would've been a polar opposite if cankles or any other ® had won....

like I said, let's see how she plays out with DJT at the helm......especially after the mids....

(07-29-2018 03:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 02:09 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  who unloaded at all those stops?

You're moving the goalposts. That's a different sector of the economy entirely. We're talking transportation. 10m people. And the people unloading? They already exist.

Just like the mechanics he tried to use earlier.

(07-29-2018 06:18 PM)Paul M Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 03:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 02:09 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  who unloaded at all those stops?

You're moving the goalposts. That's a different sector of the economy entirely. We're talking transportation. 10m people. And the people unloading? They already exist.

Just like the mechanics he tried to use earlier.

and what exactly would that be paulie....or do you post w/o reading the entire thread before tapping into the first one that catches your chocolate starfish's attention.....learn to read from last to first......that might help you out.....

....never mind, don't answer the rhetorical.....

I don't write dissertations out of the gate....it's a waste of time....however, I will easily explain my position when challenged if fairly argued.....

whether one chooses to engage is another issue....

Your comment about mechanics wasn't germane to the topic. And flat wrong claiming some sort of net zero.

(07-29-2018 07:08 PM)Paul M Wrote:  Your comment about mechanics wasn't germane to the topic. And flat wrong claiming some sort of net zero.

even gts agreed with that premise as plausible in response......he fully understood where we both were going with this subject matter....

whatever chief....I can't argue fairly with a hater....I refuse to engage once it goes there....

Automated vehicles are unstoppable.

The kids today will use them just so they can go home legally after a night on the town.

Delivery of goods will be much different than all of you are thinking. You are all thinking in terms of what we do now. It won't work that way. Automated delivery will see suppliers sending goods to hubs. Long haulers moving between hubs. The last mile will vary between service providers and companies that do their own pickup. This will all be radically different with any part of the three legs being shuffled between road, air, and drone.

It's coming. You cant stop it. Invest.

(07-29-2018 07:22 PM)Claw Wrote:  Automated vehicles are unstoppable.

The kids today will use them just so they can go home legally after a night on the town.

Delivery of goods will be much different than all of you are thinking. You are all thinking in terms of what we do now. It won't work that way. Automated delivery will see suppliers sending goods to hubs. Long haulers moving between hubs. The last mile will vary between service providers and companies that do their own pickup. This will all be radically different with any part of the three legs being shuffled between road, air, and drone.

It's coming. You cant stop it. Invest.

that's my point.....automated to the hubs is easily plausible down the road (pardon the pun)

I can easliy see the short point movement happening in large volume urban arenas.....not sold on viability in smaller metro areas like the 'burg....

and we are the hub city.....

I simply don't see the local drop off in bulk removing the human aspect.....I see redistribution of human resources.....

The trick is not to pay $15/hr for jobs with $5/hr worth of productivity, but to create more jobs with $15/hr worth of productivity.

The purpose of a universal basic income is not to provide welfare Cadillacs to those who know how to manipulate the system, but rather to provide a subsistence level safety net for everyone. if you want to live better than subsistence, you have to generate earned income.

I think it helps to have those two concepts in mind when discussing these issues.

(07-29-2018 07:32 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The trick is not to pay $15/hr for jobs with $5/hr worth of productivity, but to create more jobs with $15/hr worth of productivity.

The purpose of a universal basic income is not to provide welfare Cadillacs to those who know how to manipulate the system, but rather to provide a subsistence level safety net for everyone. if you want to live better than subsistence, you have to generate earned income.

I think it helps to have those two concepts in mind when discussing these issues.

that is correct sir....

again, the word is providing "incentive" to minimize the welfare class....

that's the plan that should be continually evolving....

(07-29-2018 07:44 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 07:32 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The trick is not to pay $15/hr for jobs with $5/hr worth of productivity, but to create more jobs with $15/hr worth of productivity.

The purpose of a universal basic income is not to provide welfare Cadillacs to those who know how to manipulate the system, but rather to provide a subsistence level safety net for everyone. if you want to live better than subsistence, you have to generate earned income.

I think it helps to have those two concepts in mind when discussing these issues.

that is correct sir....

again, the word is providing "incentive" to minimize the welfare class....

that's the plan that should be continually evolving....

Stink said the magic word "incentive" and I'm pretty sure Owl agrees.

Whatever safety net we choose to provide, we must set it up where those that also work are better off. If we don't, those waffling on to work or not will most certainly choose the not.

(07-29-2018 07:59 PM)Crebman Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 07:44 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 07:32 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The trick is not to pay $15/hr for jobs with $5/hr worth of productivity, but to create more jobs with $15/hr worth of productivity.
The purpose of a universal basic income is not to provide welfare Cadillacs to those who know how to manipulate the system, but rather to provide a subsistence level safety net for everyone. if you want to live better than subsistence, you have to generate earned income.
I think it helps to have those two concepts in mind when discussing these issues.

that is correct sir....
again, the word is providing "incentive" to minimize the welfare class....
that's the plan that should be continually evolving....

Stink said the magic word "incentive" and I'm pretty sure Owl agrees.
Whatever safety net we choose to provide, we must set it up where those that also work are better off. If we don't, those waffling on to work or not will most certainly choose the not.

Absolutely. We need a complete redesign of the safety net. That won't come from democrats, whose mantra seems to be, "Keep 'em dumb, keep 'em poor, keep 'em dependent on handouts, and you'll keep 'em voting democrat." What I can't understand is why republicans can't go there. Maybe stupid party versus evil party explains it. But I don't think that's enough to explain it.

As for the automation thing, the same jobs may not exist. But some jobs will exist. Maybe there are fewer, but higher-paying, jobs to maintain all this technology. And maybe those kinds of jobs free those people up to have more leisure activities, and maybe the new jobs are created there.

At any rate there will be jobs. And the question is whether they come here, or Europe, or Asia, or wherever. What we can--and should--do is position ourselves to come out ahead in that economy. We can't change some things. The things I see that we can change are 1) improve education (not throwing more money at it so much as changing our practices and methods based on best-in-world approaches), 2) improve infrastructure (and I think privatization and user fees are keys here), those two things together increasing our productivity, and 3) reforming tax and regulatory rules and processes to attract the needed investment.

As has been said, automation will take away jobs. The jobs remaining/created will require higher IQ though. That's going to be a problem. That's partially why I would favor UBI.

I never believed in the automation hype until I started working on the IT side of the industry. Millions of people will be displaced in shipping. I can't say exactly when it will happen, but when it does it will hit like a punch to the gut. Watch out for those jobs outside of the truck when you'll see a bunch of jobs in other areas in logistics go the way of the dodo. That's going to happen sooner than you'd think.

(07-30-2018 10:13 AM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  As has been said, automation will take away jobs. The jobs remaining/created will require higher IQ though. That's going to be a problem. That's partially why I would favor UBI.

The jobs remaining will require higher IQ and will pay better. That's why we need to reinvent our education system and upgrade infrastructure to support those jobs. With higher pay will come more need for personal services. That's where I think jobs may be created, and with more disposable income from consumers, there will be some good paying jobs in those areas.

I favor a UBI for a different reason. It is much easier to administer and to make comprehensive that our current "means tested" welfare hodgepodge. Build a floor under everyone, and let people who work live better than people who don't. Then everybody gets to make a choice.

Quote:I never believed in the automation hype until I started working on the IT side of the industry. Millions of people will be displaced in shipping. I can't say exactly when it will happen, but when it does it will hit like a punch to the gut. Watch out for those jobs outside of the truck when you'll see a bunch of jobs in other areas in logistics go the way of the dodo. That's going to happen sooner than you'd think.

The jobs that will go are not necessarily the ones being predicted right now. Those things seem always to work out differently from what was predicted. But jobs will also turn up that are not anticipated.

I saw a really interesting display yesterday at Nissan Crossing, in the Ginza area of Tokyo. They have a show room with their concept cars. Fascinating. Not to mention the snack bar where there is a machine that you can order coffee with whipped cream on top, and they take your photo and imprint it into the whipped cream topping.

(07-29-2018 08:25 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 07:59 PM)Crebman Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 07:44 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 07:32 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The trick is not to pay $15/hr for jobs with $5/hr worth of productivity, but to create more jobs with $15/hr worth of productivity.
The purpose of a universal basic income is not to provide welfare Cadillacs to those who know how to manipulate the system, but rather to provide a subsistence level safety net for everyone. if you want to live better than subsistence, you have to generate earned income.
I think it helps to have those two concepts in mind when discussing these issues.

that is correct sir....
again, the word is providing "incentive" to minimize the welfare class....
that's the plan that should be continually evolving....

Stink said the magic word "incentive" and I'm pretty sure Owl agrees.
Whatever safety net we choose to provide, we must set it up where those that also work are better off. If we don't, those waffling on to work or not will most certainly choose the not.

Absolutely. We need a complete redesign of the safety net. That won't come from democrats, whose mantra seems to be, "Keep 'em dumb, keep 'em poor, keep 'em dependent on handouts, and you'll keep 'em voting democrat." What I can't understand is why republicans can't go there. Maybe stupid party versus evil party explains it. But I don't think that's enough to explain it.

As for the automation thing, the same jobs may not exist. But some jobs will exist. Maybe there are fewer, but higher-paying, jobs to maintain all this technology. And maybe those kinds of jobs free those people up to have more leisure activities, and maybe the new jobs are created there.

At any rate there will be jobs. And the question is whether they come here, or Europe, or Asia, or wherever. What we can--and should--do is position ourselves to come out ahead in that economy. We can't change some things. The things I see that we can change are 1) improve education (not throwing more money at it so much as changing our practices and methods based on best-in-world approaches), 2) improve infrastructure (and I think privatization and user fees are keys here), those two things together increasing our productivity, and 3) reforming tax and regulatory rules and processes to attract the needed investment.

I think we could all agree on improving education. The question is: How?

Like my mom told me (A recently retired principal), education is one of the preferred battlegrounds where politics on both sides matter more than improvement. It's also a money grab for textbook/testing companies. Those alone prevent us from adopting best-in-world approaches.

(07-30-2018 10:21 AM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  I think we could all agree on improving education. The question is: How?
Like my mom told me (A recently retired principal), education is one of the preferred battlegrounds where politics on both sides matter more than improvement. It's also a money grab for textbook/testing companies. Those alone prevent us from adopting best-in-world approaches.

I think the "politics matter more than improvement" part is a big key. I don't think that necessarily prevents us from adopting best-in-world approaches. But in the present situation, it clearly doesn't help.