(08-02-2018 09:46 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: Guys, remember when it comes to the WAC vs Summit discussion, especially for a well located and fantastically rich school like Denver, the question becomes one of
1) What are the downsides
2) What are the upsides
Now, lets look at the downside. The big fear with both of them is the fear of the autobid. The Summit is far more stable, especially if you're Denver. If you aren't the team leaving, the only likely team to bolt is Fort Wayne (and that might not happen either). Remember the Summit could waive an exit fee for NMSU as an inducement. Now, to the WAC. The WAC has one good team (NMSU) which is desperately looking for a football home. The WAC got very lucky that NMSU narrowly missed the votes to gain all sport admission to the Sun Belt. UTPA is looking to join the Southland, UMKC is reportedly very unhappy with their decision to move to the WAC, and they've got two schools that aren't really fits (Chicago State really isn't a functioning institution, and Grand Canyon Education, Incorporated is a bizzare fit too - btw they're still effectively for profit - as they run all of their money through a required consulting/services firm that is wholly owned by the shareholders of GCEI). The league is even more spread out than the Summit as well, with 4 schools with no travel partner.
There are four flagship institutions in the Summit. There is one in the WAC. The only thing that the WAC has 'going for it' is that its top two schools are 'frozen' in place by odd scenarios, such as NMSU's need to find a home for its FBS team (few conferences want a team that would obviously leave) and GCU/GCEI's bizzare ownership situation. If NMSU dropped down to FCS, they'd have their pick of several conferences. And they'd go. And then there's UTPA/RGV, which is 'frozen' by the fact that the Southland is too big at this point.
As far as soccer goes, they can always form a deal with the Sun Belt, which also needs soccer members. Maybe the Summit is the 'mens soccer conference' and the Sun Belt is the womens soccer league. Something like that.
To the person threatening ORU leaving...What conference would take ORU? Besides the WAC? The Southland is full and I think UTRGV would probably get the nod over ORU (Remember ORU left the Southland a few years back). The Sun Belt isn't interested in private schools. Big Sky? Nope. Big West? Nope. Horizon? Unlikely now. OVC? Maybe, but they're really a FCS league and have no private schools.
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From Denver's perspective, what scenario is worse....staying in the Summit and then having the Dakota four leave? Okay, then you just join the WAC then (and save the million buck exit fee), which would take you.
However, if you're in the WAC and it implodes, then there's no guarantee that you'd find a home. Remember, Denver is an outlier in the Summit.
1. NMSU is not desperately seeking a new conference. Sure, they would like to be in an FBS conference. It makes scheduling easier. But the financial advantages of being at the FBS level are too good to leave. For example, NMSU will collect $3.8 million in guarantee games in 2019. Plus their Learfield sponsorship revenue, plus the College Football playoff revenue. FCS is not an option and independence is fine for now.
2. NMSU is not the only good team in the WAC. GCU has never had a losing season at D1. They have three seasons in a row of 22 wins or more. They have the largest basketball budget in the WAC of $4.3 million. They led the WAC in attendance again at 6,698 fans per game. Seattle has the 2nd largest budget at $3.4 million per year and they won 20 games last season. UVU won 23 games last season and made a profit of over $500,000 in basketball in 2016-2017. They did well again this past season:
http://gouvu.com/news/2018/7/13/general-...wards.aspx
Cal State Bakersfield made the NIT final four in 2017 and won the WAC in 2016. Cal Baptist is joining the WAC after winning the Division II Learfield Directors’ Cup. They bring a new 5,200 seat arena and a strong athletic program.
3. There is no reason for NMSU to join a one bid league in the Midwest. They have better rivalries in the WAC:
https://www.lcsun-news.com/story/sports/...330996002/
GCU is 400 miles away. Cal Baptist is another 310 miles from Phoenix. These are two areas that NMSU wants to be recruiting in. They are not going to the Dakotas to recruit. It makes no sense to join the Summit. The markets are more attractive in the WAC. It makes no sense to travel to the Dakotas, to Macomb, Illinois and Fort Wayne, Indiana.
4. UTRGV is not going to the Southland Conference. The Southland is a one bid conference with 13 members. It makes no sense to expand. The WAC is a better basketball conference for UTRGV, who open up a new arena hosting the Oklahoma Sooners in early November. The WAC ranked at #15 in conference RPI last season out of 32 conferences. The Southland was #29.
5. ORU is only going to leave if Fort Wayne leaves. If Fort Wayne left, then the conference would lose their autobid to men's soccer and baseball. ORU would have to leave if that occurred. Fort Wayne wants into the Horizon, a bus league and a better league for them.
6. The Summit is a league of football & hockey schools that also play basketball. You can see it in the basketball budgets, which are bigger in the WAC because their schools are basketball schools. You can see it in the attendance, which is better in the WAC. The four Dakota schools have basketball budgets of $1.6 million or less. Nebraska Omaha budget was $940,000. Western Illinois $1.2 million and they averaged 602 fans per game.
7. Denver averaged 1,204 fans last season, with a low of 432 against South Dakota. Denver has spent five seasons in the Summit and they have not established a rivalry with anyone. In their only season in the WAC they averaged 3,312 fans. In their last season in the Sun Belt they averaged 5,460 fans. It just seems like the Summit schools don't do much for Denver basketball fans.
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Why did the Sun Belt add Denver?
