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rileylives Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-25-2018 05:16 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt picks are below:

Charlotte 36 units
ODU Short 10 units

Hey CLT, if you want 10 ODU short, you would still have 85 pts to work with.
07-25-2018 05:30 PM
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ghostofclt Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-25-2018 05:30 PM)rileylives Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 05:16 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt picks are below:

Charlotte 36 units
ODU Short 10 units

Hey CLT, if you want 10 ODU short, you would still have 85 pts to work with.

clt adds the additional 85 units to Charlotte.
07-25-2018 06:10 PM
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ODU AGGIE Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-25-2018 11:16 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Just ODU...my realistic plan for them. Or what I view as realistic.

W @ Liberty
L FIU
W @ Charlotte
L VA Tech
L @ ECU
L @ FAU
L Marshall
W @ WKU
L MTSU
W North Texas
W VMI
W @ Rice

That nets me 15,000 and bankrolls my stock buys.

This is what makes this game interesting. With ODU this year, you see six wins (and no bowl game?) as realistic, while I see nine wins (including a bowl game win) as being realistic. Where we differ is ECU and FIU. ECU is projected as a really bad team this year. I think the Monarchs are going to come out of Greenville with a win. FIU will be a tough match, but we get them at home, and we beat them down there last year -- so I give the toss-up to ODU. Then there's the bowl game to consider, and none of us have any idea who any of our teams will be playing -- so that's a crap shoot -- and I went with the homer win to total out at nine wins.

Which way will it go? That's anybody's guess. Though I see nine wins, it's just too iffy to buy, and it's definitely too iffy to short (in my opinion). Bottom line -- just stay away from ODU.
(This post was last modified: 07-25-2018 06:37 PM by ODU AGGIE.)
07-25-2018 06:37 PM
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rileylives Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-25-2018 06:37 PM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 11:16 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Just ODU...my realistic plan for them. Or what I view as realistic.

W @ Liberty
L FIU
W @ Charlotte
L VA Tech
L @ ECU
L @ FAU
L Marshall
W @ WKU
L MTSU
W North Texas
W VMI
W @ Rice

That nets me 15,000 and bankrolls my stock buys.

This is what makes this game interesting. With ODU this year, you see six wins (and no bowl game?) as realistic, while I see nine wins (including a bowl game win) as being realistic. Where we differ is ECU and FIU. ECU is projected as a really bad team this year. I think the Monarchs are going to come out of Greenville with a win. FIU will be a tough match, but we get them at home, and we beat them down there last year -- so I give the toss-up to ODU. Then there's the bowl game to consider, and none of us have any idea who any of our teams will be playing -- so that's a crap shoot -- and I went with the homer win to total out at nine wins.

Which way will it go? That's anybody's guess. Though I see nine wins, it's just too iffy to buy, and it's definitely too iffy to short (in my opinion). Bottom line -- just stay away from ODU.

Totally civil conversation, do you think this core can make a run in a year or two for the East Division or Conference Championship? Because I think that's the goal that you want to have if you're starting a sophomore 18 year old quarterback.
07-26-2018 10:51 AM
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ODU AGGIE Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-26-2018 10:51 AM)rileylives Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 06:37 PM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 11:16 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Just ODU...my realistic plan for them. Or what I view as realistic.

W @ Liberty
L FIU
W @ Charlotte
L VA Tech
L @ ECU
L @ FAU
L Marshall
W @ WKU
L MTSU
W North Texas
W VMI
W @ Rice

That nets me 15,000 and bankrolls my stock buys.

This is what makes this game interesting. With ODU this year, you see six wins (and no bowl game?) as realistic, while I see nine wins (including a bowl game win) as being realistic. Where we differ is ECU and FIU. ECU is projected as a really bad team this year. I think the Monarchs are going to come out of Greenville with a win. FIU will be a tough match, but we get them at home, and we beat them down there last year -- so I give the toss-up to ODU. Then there's the bowl game to consider, and none of us have any idea who any of our teams will be playing -- so that's a crap shoot -- and I went with the homer win to total out at nine wins.

Which way will it go? That's anybody's guess. Though I see nine wins, it's just too iffy to buy, and it's definitely too iffy to short (in my opinion). Bottom line -- just stay away from ODU.

Totally civil conversation, do you think this core can make a run in a year or two for the East Division or Conference Championship? Because I think that's the goal that you want to have if you're starting a sophomore 18 year old quarterback.

I think it will be extremely difficult for ODU to contend for a championship next year as we have (give or take) eight senior starters on defense and six senior starters on offense this year. However successful we are this year, next year looks like a rebuild/reload year, and I truly don't know if the Monarchs have the depth to reload to the extent that they can compete for a championship. I tend to doubt it.

Of course, by this time next year my glass will be half full again. 04-cheers
07-26-2018 11:17 AM
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rileylives Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-26-2018 11:17 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  
(07-26-2018 10:51 AM)rileylives Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 06:37 PM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  
(07-25-2018 11:16 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Just ODU...my realistic plan for them. Or what I view as realistic.

W @ Liberty
L FIU
W @ Charlotte
L VA Tech
L @ ECU
L @ FAU
L Marshall
W @ WKU
L MTSU
W North Texas
W VMI
W @ Rice

That nets me 15,000 and bankrolls my stock buys.

This is what makes this game interesting. With ODU this year, you see six wins (and no bowl game?) as realistic, while I see nine wins (including a bowl game win) as being realistic. Where we differ is ECU and FIU. ECU is projected as a really bad team this year. I think the Monarchs are going to come out of Greenville with a win. FIU will be a tough match, but we get them at home, and we beat them down there last year -- so I give the toss-up to ODU. Then there's the bowl game to consider, and none of us have any idea who any of our teams will be playing -- so that's a crap shoot -- and I went with the homer win to total out at nine wins.

Which way will it go? That's anybody's guess. Though I see nine wins, it's just too iffy to buy, and it's definitely too iffy to short (in my opinion). Bottom line -- just stay away from ODU.

Totally civil conversation, do you think this core can make a run in a year or two for the East Division or Conference Championship? Because I think that's the goal that you want to have if you're starting a sophomore 18 year old quarterback.

I think it will be extremely difficult for ODU to contend for a championship next year as we have (give or take) eight senior starters on defense and six senior starters on offense this year. However successful we are this year, next year looks like a rebuild/reload year, and I truly don't know if the Monarchs have the depth to reload to the extent that they can compete for a championship. I tend to doubt it.

Of course, by this time next year my glass will be half full again. 04-cheers

It's very interesting. Of course, I think your future is tied to that young quarterback Steven Williams. I do think that by the end of the year your team is going to play a lot stronger, I think maybe some bumps early on in the season.

Again, thank you Banker for setting this up. It forced me and a lot of us to have to do research on the teams. And like others have said, ODU were priced at a very interesting price point. So I think a lot of people are going to be looking at that and really analyzing that team.
07-26-2018 11:24 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #67
Season "Stock" Contest
ODU — so trendy but I’m locking it in early...

Short 10,000 ODU
Buy 25,027 Rice
Buy 2 FAU
Go Owls
07-26-2018 02:57 PM
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ghostofclt Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
clt would like extra stock dollars. How are people getting 10k?
07-26-2018 04:06 PM
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rileylives Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-26-2018 04:06 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt would like extra stock dollars. How are people getting 10k?

It’s all up to you. Only two of us have done it. It’s significantly more dangerous, but could win you this game if played appropriately.
07-26-2018 05:15 PM
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ghostofclt Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
clt shorts odu 100,000 units
07-26-2018 05:29 PM
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rileylives Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-26-2018 05:29 PM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt shorts odu 100,000 units

10,000 is the max
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2018 05:35 PM by rileylives.)
07-26-2018 05:35 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-26-2018 02:57 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  ODU — so trendy but I’m locking it in early...

Short 10,000 ODU
Buy 25,027 Rice
Buy 2 FAU
Go Owls

At least you can count on Rice fans to get their math right. clt just shorted a million ODU shares so he could buy 3 more Charlotte shares.
07-26-2018 05:44 PM
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rileylives Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-26-2018 05:44 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(07-26-2018 02:57 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  ODU — so trendy but I’m locking it in early...

Short 10,000 ODU
Buy 25,027 Rice
Buy 2 FAU
Go Owls

At least you can count on Rice fans to get their math right. clt just shorted a million ODU shares so he could buy 3 more Charlotte shares.

Lol
07-26-2018 05:48 PM
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ghostofclt Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
clt purchased 36 Charlotte units
clt shorts 10,000 odu units


Any winnings will go to our smaller schools in conference like UT north and ga southern
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2018 07:25 PM by ghostofclt.)
07-26-2018 07:24 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
So I’ll defer to bankers judgement and/or the group think on this but I’m thinking the “short” limit should be much lower. I’d suggest 100 or maybe even 10. The value difference of the amount you can win with you original investment of 100 and just getting a half game short right or wrong with a heavy bet seems out of scale for the game to me. In real life risk would prevent (or at least heavily deter) anyone from doing that but with fake money we’ll end up with some people way in the hole, some way up and some with between 0 and a couple hundred in the bank that may or may not have made some good investments but won’t win because they didn’t bet the farm on their short.

Maybe the way to do it is to say you can’t go in debt to start, you’ve got 100 to invest so you can’t short more than 100 worth of securities. Banker can keep the one short bet rule still if he wants, he’s doing the spreadsheets.

Just a suggestion and I’m in regardless. This is the inaugural run of the game so we can iron it out later and as game master banker should get the final say but I thought I’d throw it out there before we got too deep.

Like I said, I’m looking forward to watching everyone lose thier shirts shorting ODU regardless.
07-26-2018 08:57 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
I was promised when I joined this site that there would be no math.
07-26-2018 09:32 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
Short 2 UNT
10 shares UTEP
30 shares Rice.

I'm playing the new coach parlay.
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2018 10:11 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
07-26-2018 10:11 PM
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banker Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-26-2018 08:57 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  So I’ll defer to bankers judgement and/or the group think on this but I’m thinking the “short” limit should be much lower. I’d suggest 100 or maybe even 10. The value difference of the amount you can win with you original investment of 100 and just getting a half game short right or wrong with a heavy bet seems out of scale for the game to me. In real life risk would prevent (or at least heavily deter) anyone from doing that but with fake money we’ll end up with some people way in the hole, some way up and some with between 0 and a couple hundred in the bank that may or may not have made some good investments but won’t win because they didn’t bet the farm on their short.

Maybe the way to do it is to say you can’t go in debt to start, you’ve got 100 to invest so you can’t short more than 100 worth of securities. Banker can keep the one short bet rule still if he wants, he’s doing the spreadsheets.

Just a suggestion and I’m in regardless. This is the inaugural run of the game so we can iron it out later and as game master banker should get the final say but I thought I’d throw it out there before we got too deep.

Like I said, I’m looking forward to watching everyone lose thier shirts shorting ODU regardless.


You are 100% correct in your assessment and I had typed out a post basically saying the same thing and was going with the standard margin rule of 50% (i.e. you could margin up to $100). It does make the most sense.

I didn't post it because at the end of the day I think most of the big margin plays will go poorly. Not only do you have to pick the short position that works out, but then you have to also successfully redeploy all that cash into teams that exceed their line.

Obviously, when I set out to do this I didn't think the short thing through because I was viewing through the prism of rational investing, people treating it as real cash. I certainly don't care to adjust the game if most think it's the best way (I personally do), but since I didn't stipulate it from the get go, I will let the opinions over the next few days make the call.
07-26-2018 10:59 PM
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ODUsmitty Offline
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Post: #79
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
(07-24-2018 02:46 PM)banker Wrote:  Football “Stock Market” Contest

The game – each person who elects to play will start with 100 points. The points will be used to buy shares in CUSA teams of their choice. The cost of the “stock” in each team is listed below. You will accumulate points based on the total number of wins by the team you hold stock in times the number of shares you own. So, if you put all your money in one team and their cost was 5 points per share, you will acquire 20 shares. If they win 6 games you end the season with 120 points, if they end with 4 wins you end with 80 points.

The object is to find teams you believe are over or under valued based on the initial price of the “stock”. If a team is assigned a value of 4, but you believe they will win 8 games, that would obviously be a stock to buy. You will also have the opportunity to “short” a team’s stock. However, you can only short one team. Shorting is essentially selling a stock and then hoping to buy it back later for less money. In this case, if you short one share of a team that has a value of 5, you sell that stock and now have 105 to buy other stocks. Keep in mind though that each game won by a team you shorted deducts 1 point from your total, times the number of shares shorted.

You will not be able to buy or sell stock once the season starts, you live with your initial purchases. The win total will include the regular season, the championship game and any post season games. Keep in mind that the teams that make the conference championship will play 14 games, bowl teams will play 13, other teams 12 (additionally, Rice has an extra game this year).

Please post your entry in a standard format so my data input is a little easier. Below is an example.

SHORT – 5 shares FAU
BUY – 8 shares USM
Buy – 4 shares FIU
Buy – 10 shares UTEP

etc.

Basically put any short position first. Remember, when doing the math you have 100 points to spend PLUS the value of any shorted shares. You can only buy whole shares, no fractional shares. So if a stock is 7.5 and you only have 7 left, you have to buy something else.

Team Price/Shr
FAU 9.50
Marshall 8.50
UAB 8.00
UNT 7.50
ODU 7.50
La Tech 7.00
USM 6.50
Middle 6.00
UTSA 5.50
FIU 5.50
WKU 4.00
Rice 3.00
UTEP 2.50
Charlotte 2.50


Open for any questions.

SHORT LA TECH 10,000 units
BUY ODU 9000 units
BUY WKU 650 units
07-26-2018 11:35 PM
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ODU AGGIE Offline
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Post: #80
RE: Season "Stock" Contest
I have not made my buys yet, and I do think limiting the shorts is absolutely necessary for the game to have any semblance of reality. Otherwise, it's like playing Texas Hold 'em with play money. There's no risk or the associated penalty for going all in.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2018 06:16 AM by ODU AGGIE.)
07-27-2018 06:14 AM
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