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Will we see the first party shake up since the Whigs?
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #41
RE: Will we see the first party shake up since the Whigs?
(08-27-2018 01:33 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  
(07-24-2018 02:41 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(07-23-2018 08:31 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I would hazard to guess with the leftward shift in the Democrats under Obama, there has been a more than decent amount of self-immolation of centrists in that party.
I can’t think of more than 2 or 3 national figure Democrats that could be even labeled anywhere near moderate or centrist.
I can think of one, maybe—Joe Manchin. Who would be your others?
If we are just talking about the Senate, Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Jones voted with Trump/GOP 50% or more in this Congress.
In the House, Cuellar(TX), Peterson(MN), Lamb(PA), Gottheimer(NJ), O'Halleran(AZ), and Sinema(AZ) have voted with Trump/GOP 50% of the time.
On the GOP Senate side, no GOP senator has against the GOP/Trump line more than 26%(Rand Paul). Susan Collins is next at 21.1%
For the House, Walter Jones(FL) has voted against the GOP/Trump over 50% of the time. Justin Amash was close at 46.7%
I would contend that, minus a few more here or there, that this is the moderate caucus in the Congress. Maybe a dozen total from both parties in both houses. That's sad.

That's about the list of people in congress for whom I might have any respect. Rand and Amash would be #1 and #2 for me. Total of 14 out of 535. 2.6%. Pretty pitiful.
08-27-2018 02:25 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Will we see the first party shake up since the Whigs?
The 2016 election WAS a shakeup. It was the biggest shakeup since at least 1980, and probably bigger than both the 1980 reallignment of evangelicals to Republicans and the 1964 movement of blacks to Democrats.

Before 2016, the Democratic party was an alliance of (in order of size):
1) well-educated white liberals (the party leaders)
2) aggrieved minorities of several classes:
2a) African American
2b) new immigrants
2c) feminists (much smaller)
2d) LGBT (much smaller)
3) Big Labor (union bosses and the white working class who works for and is opposed to Big Business)
4) environmentalists
5) spiritualists (palm readers, hippies, etc)
6) socialists / communists

Trump pried off the white working class. That is a HUGE shift. It won him PA, MI, and WI and turned OH, IA, and MO into solid R territory.

The working class has never been liberal. The shock is that they stuck with the Democrats as long as they did.

Without the white working class to moderate them, the other wings of the party have gotten more powerful. That's why we're seeing more identity politics, appeals to socialism, and even the normalization of some anti-Christian sentiments within the party.

The appeals to socialism and identity politics make sense. This appeals to their base and can even make sense to groups that don't believe in it (for example, a new immigrant or a working class white man can be convinced that socialism will help them, and there are plenty of women who can be persuaded by identity politics if it's framed correctly).

But the anti-Christian sentiments of the spiritualists and white liberals are dangerous for the party. Two of the Democrats' biggest remaining blocks (blacks and new immigrants) are very religious. Much like the working-class white they are not in any way liberal. Republicans actually have a great chance to pry off big chunks of the black and Latino vote if they make it a priority.
10-30-2018 03:19 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Will we see the first party shake up since the Whigs?
(08-27-2018 02:25 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-27-2018 01:33 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  
(07-24-2018 02:41 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(07-23-2018 08:31 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I would hazard to guess with the leftward shift in the Democrats under Obama, there has been a more than decent amount of self-immolation of centrists in that party.
I can’t think of more than 2 or 3 national figure Democrats that could be even labeled anywhere near moderate or centrist.
I can think of one, maybe—Joe Manchin. Who would be your others?
If we are just talking about the Senate, Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Jones voted with Trump/GOP 50% or more in this Congress.
In the House, Cuellar(TX), Peterson(MN), Lamb(PA), Gottheimer(NJ), O'Halleran(AZ), and Sinema(AZ) have voted with Trump/GOP 50% of the time.
On the GOP Senate side, no GOP senator has against the GOP/Trump line more than 26%(Rand Paul). Susan Collins is next at 21.1%
For the House, Walter Jones(FL) has voted against the GOP/Trump over 50% of the time. Justin Amash was close at 46.7%
I would contend that, minus a few more here or there, that this is the moderate caucus in the Congress. Maybe a dozen total from both parties in both houses. That's sad.

That's about the list of people in congress for whom I might have any respect. Rand and Amash would be #1 and #2 for me. Total of 14 out of 535. 2.6%. Pretty pitiful.

Justin Amash (R-MI House)
Thomas Massie (R-KY House)
Walter Jones (R-NC House)
Raul Labrador (R-ID House)


Those are the real heavy hitters. There's about a dozen other House members a standard deviation less pro-liberty than this, including one Democrat in Jared Polis (D-CO House). The Senate is a total **** show outside of Rand Paul and Mike Lee.
10-30-2018 05:18 PM
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