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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #1
Brexit
Quote:That means that everything in the global system that was predicated upon the Order will need to find a new basis for existence. Europe has two big Order-dependent things. NATO – which may well formally collapse at this week’s summit – and the European Union. There is no way that an export-based union of mutually antagonistic countries whose security is guaranteed by an outside power can survive in an environment in which those exports are impossible and the security guarantor leaves. The EU was going down anyway which means the Brits had to figure out their way in the world anyway. Brexit means they get a head start on the rest of Europe. Recent developments haven’t brought disaster, they’ve brought clarity.

Yes folks, a hard Brexit is the best-case scenario for the United Kingdom because it forces the Brits to move on now. So yes folks, a three-year depression that knocks a country’s GDP down by one-fifth is probably the best-case scenario for anyone dependent upon the Order as the world slides into Disorder.

I expect the Brits to come out of this better than nearly everyone. For two centuries they ran a globe-spanning empire that was the largest economic entity ever (at least until the Americans came of age). If there is one country that knows how to operate in a disorderly world, without continent-spanning trade pacts, where military and economic power are often fused, that has already stitched together a strategic security plan, it is the United Kingdom.

But that doesn’t mean the road from here to there won’t royally suck.


https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/brexit-blunder
07-10-2018 02:56 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #2
RE: Brexit
Started reading before I checked the link, so at first didn't realize it was Zeihan. But about ten words in, I figured it out.

IMO UK really needs to reinvigorate the Commonwealth. They have been cut off in any ways by EU prohibitions on negotiating independently, even with countries that share a common head of state. That bit about the largest trading entity in the world could be true--or nearly so--again. There has been talk of a combined Commonwealth armed force. That would probably be enough power to protect their trade routes.

UK has really had a difficult time negotiating foreign policy considering the need to balance EU membership, Commonwealth membership, and the special relationship with the US. I could see some sort of informal association between the US and the Commonwealth. I don't see that happening with Trump, but down the line I could see it.
(This post was last modified: 07-10-2018 03:22 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
07-10-2018 03:22 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Brexit
(07-10-2018 03:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  IMO UK really needs to reinvigorate the Commonwealth.


That's probably my second favorite topic after redrawing the North American political map. There is *real* room for a *real* Commonwealth. One predicated first and foremost among the English's greatest contribution to humanity: English Common Law.

Major tenants:
- Mirror free trade
- English as the official language
- Metric as the official units (we'll get there eventually)
- US Dollar as the official currency
- GDP to defense spending targets
- Strategic interests and strategic trade (say, building LNG offload facilities for allies under OPEC/Russian energy thumb)
- The Queen is a dignitary welcome to address and be seated at any formal function ... but has no authority ... this is the big sticking point with US membership in the current Commonwealth.
(This post was last modified: 07-10-2018 03:31 PM by georgia_tech_swagger.)
07-10-2018 03:29 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Brexit
Loved this line:
Quote:As the Greeks discovered at the beginning of their crisis, you cannot vote yourself rich… but you can totally vote yourself poor.

Others I'm reading are talking about the death of Brexit, so it's interesting (and heartening) to see Zeihan talking about it still happening, just a much more challenging implementation.
07-10-2018 05:16 PM
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nomad2u2001 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Brexit
(07-10-2018 03:29 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(07-10-2018 03:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  IMO UK really needs to reinvigorate the Commonwealth.


That's probably my second favorite topic after redrawing the North American political map. There is *real* room for a *real* Commonwealth. One predicated first and foremost among the English's greatest contribution to humanity: English Common Law.

Major tenants:
- Mirror free trade
- English as the official language
- Metric as the official units (we'll get there eventually)
- US Dollar as the official currency
- GDP to defense spending targets
- Strategic interests and strategic trade (say, building LNG offload facilities for allies under OPEC/Russian energy thumb)
- The Queen is a dignitary welcome to address and be seated at any formal function ... but has no authority ... this is the big sticking point with US membership in the current Commonwealth.

The Queen already has no authority over the Commonwealth. Only 16 out of 54 members are in her realm. Samoa, Tonga, and others even have their own royalty.
07-10-2018 07:47 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #6
RE: Brexit
(07-10-2018 03:29 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(07-10-2018 03:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  IMO UK really needs to reinvigorate the Commonwealth.


That's probably my second favorite topic after redrawing the North American political map. There is *real* room for a *real* Commonwealth. One predicated first and foremost among the English's greatest contribution to humanity: English Common Law.

Major tenants:
- Mirror free trade
- English as the official language
- Metric as the official units (we'll get there eventually)
- US Dollar as the official currency
- GDP to defense spending targets
- Strategic interests and strategic trade (say, building LNG offload facilities for allies under OPEC/Russian energy thumb)
- The Queen is a dignitary welcome to address and be seated at any formal function ... but has no authority ... this is the big sticking point with US membership in the current Commonwealth.

What I have in mind is more like an association where the queen would have no authority, but we would have trade and defense alliances. The real test would be whether we could participate in the Commonwealth Games.
07-10-2018 07:54 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Brexit
(07-10-2018 07:47 PM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  The Queen already has no authority over the Commonwealth. Only 16 out of 54 members are in her realm. Samoa, Tonga, and others even have their own royalty.

All this stuff:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_of_the_Commonwealth

... needs to be cleaned up.
07-10-2018 08:46 PM
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #8
RE: Brexit
(07-10-2018 02:56 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
Quote:That means that everything in the global system that was predicated upon the Order will need to find a new basis for existence. Europe has two big Order-dependent things. NATO – which may well formally collapse at this week’s summit – and the European Union. There is no way that an export-based union of mutually antagonistic countries whose security is guaranteed by an outside power can survive in an environment in which those exports are impossible and the security guarantor leaves. The EU was going down anyway which means the Brits had to figure out their way in the world anyway. Brexit means they get a head start on the rest of Europe. Recent developments haven’t brought disaster, they’ve brought clarity.

Yes folks, a hard Brexit is the best-case scenario for the United Kingdom because it forces the Brits to move on now. So yes folks, a three-year depression that knocks a country’s GDP down by one-fifth is probably the best-case scenario for anyone dependent upon the Order as the world slides into Disorder.

I expect the Brits to come out of this better than nearly everyone. For two centuries they ran a globe-spanning empire that was the largest economic entity ever (at least until the Americans came of age). If there is one country that knows how to operate in a disorderly world, without continent-spanning trade pacts, where military and economic power are often fused, that has already stitched together a strategic security plan, it is the United Kingdom.

But that doesn’t mean the road from here to there won’t royally suck.


https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/brexit-blunder

Uh the UK was the party maintaining order over the colonial empire, primarily by having the largest most powerful Navy in the world to insure they had free access and could deny access to those disrupting their vision of order. The UK is 10th (ish) in the world in military spending by GDP. Unless some number of Commonwealth nations want to join the UK in being the body imposing order in an alliance, UK is in no position to build on the lessons of yesterday without the US remaining the party imposing order.
07-12-2018 11:04 AM
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Lord Stanley Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Brexit
Quote:There is no way that an export-based union of mutually antagonistic countries whose security is guaranteed by an outside power can survive in an environment in which those exports are impossible and the security guarantor leaves.

Trump knows this.
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2018 11:30 AM by Lord Stanley.)
07-12-2018 11:29 AM
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