This is the first of many preseason rankings: College Sports Madness TOP 144

Bucs come in at #133 and for what it's worth we weren't ranked at all in this last year, neither was UNCG. I except to see them in the top 100.

Bucs are ahead of Illinois, Stanford and Temple, but just behind Radford.

At least it shows that the Bucs, despite fairly heavy losses, are already on people's radar.

Kind of interesting to look at the detail of the College Sports Madness report. The athletic department found it interesting enough to post on the ETSU web site http://www.etsubucs.com/mbasketball/news...4-preview/

The real take on this is that these folks are sharp enough to be aware of the Bucs at all after so many personnel losses. They see that something good may be coming here. But clearly they are going to rate us behind UNCG and, probably, Wofford. They slate us for the CBI or CIT, and not the NCAA's.

They have a nice little chart showing some key statistical categories and how the Bucs rank in those categories, both in the NCAA's and in the SoCon. The key figures have been mentioned before - the Bucs succeeded by tight defense (13th in D1 and 1st in the SoCon in FG% defense at .403; 28th in D1 and 2nd in the SoCon in holding opponents down at 65.9), and solid rebounding (3.9 rebounding margin, 54th in D1 but 3rd in the SoCon). What this doesn't show is that these numbers were trending down the last half of conference play after being really impressive midway through the SoCon. While UNCG was trending strongly better at the same point.

Offensively, the Bucs were efficient scorers (47.3 FG%, 45 in D1 and 1st in the SoCon) but poor 3 point shooters (7.2 per game, 224 in D1 and 10th in the SoCon; .343 3pt%, 208 in D1 and 7th in the SoCon). Those numbers also trended down, but not as sharply as the defense and rebounding. Weak 3 point shooting put more pressure on the Bucs to be great on defense and on the boards every time out.

With the changes in personnel, the strengths and weaknesses of this year's Bucs could be very different. Shooters like Patrick Good, Tray Boyd, Carlos Curtis and Kevon Tucker could change the offensive look, and active defenders like Jeromy Rodriguez and Octavion Corley (whom the report, I think correctly, sees as a possible difference maker) could help the defense be as good or better, despite the loss of strong defenders Peter Jurkin, Jermaine Long and Desonta Bradford.

Here is their take:

"Projection:
A few returning players will be in the mix this year. Bo Hodges was the most productive last season, averaging 9.0 points as a freshman. The 6-4 guard would be a much more dynamic scoring threat if he found some consistency with his outside shot. Kanayo Obi-Rapu can knock down a few shots and had a few decent outings off the bench last season. Mladen Armus averaged 6.3 points and 5.5 rebounds as a freshman and is ready for a larger role as a sophomore. But most of the production will come from the nine newcomers. Tray Boyd, Jeromy Rodriguez, Octavion Corley, Isaiah Tisdale and Kevon Tucker all join ETSU from the junior college ranks. Tray Boyd and Isaiah Tisdale are highly regarded guards who are expected to step right into a starting role. Tisdale was a juco All-American last season and averaged 17.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists while leading Vincennes Junior College to the NJCAA Final Four. Also keep an eye on Octavion Corley. The seven-footer may not do a ton of scoring, but he will be a massive presence in the paint on both ends of the floor. East Tennessee State does not lack in talent, but experience at this level could be a concern. Once all the pieces come together, this will be a tough team to beat.

Projected Postseason Tournament: CBI/CIT

By the Numbers:
Scoring Offense: 75.2 (135th in nation, 6th in conference)
Scoring Defense: 65.9 (28, 2)
Field-Goal Percentage: 47.3 (45, 1)
Field-Goal Defense: 40.3 (13, 1)
Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 7.2 (224, 10)
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 34.3 (208, 7)
Free-Throw Percentage: 71.0 (187, 7)
Rebound Margin: 3.9 (54, 3)
Assists Per Game: 14.7 (98, 5)
Turnovers Per Game: 13.4 (220, 4)"

Wofford comes in at #90
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16485

Wofford ranks 90th in the College Sports Madness scheme - ahead of Connecticut, Georgia, Oklahoma, Western Kentucky, etc. And of course ahead of the Bucs at 133. http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16485

The Bucs matched up well with Wofford last year, despite dropping a home game to them in their end of season slide. But this is a whole new season.

No real new insights here (the charting notes that the Terriers were 5th in D1 in 3 pt %, and 13th in makes per game; but only 231st in FG% defense - but we've already commented on that). But interesting to see the ranking. UNCG still to come.

UNC Greensboro comes up 79th in the rankings and a projected 13th seed in the NCAA's. http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16520

That's ahead of Wofford at #90 and ETSU at #133

Take it with a grain of salt. Last year neither UNCG (the actual #1 in the SoCon) nor ETSU (the actual #2) was ranked preseason in this poll. Ranked #1 in the SoCon in this preseason poll last year was Furman, who actually finished #3 in the SoCon.

Last year Mercer at 109 and Samford at 137 were rated 2nd and 3rd in the SoCon, but actually finished 5th and 7th respectively.

Still expect ETSU to finish top 100. Forbes has been consistent with a new team each of his last 3 seasons. Defense and rebounding should be top notch again. We’ll see how the offense progresses and bodies hold up. Really excited for this season! Love/hate the rivalry with Greensboro!

(08-20-2018 09:49 AM)shampoo Wrote:  Still expect ETSU to finish top 100. Forbes has been consistent with a new team each of his last 3 seasons. Defense and rebounding should be top notch again. We’ll see how the offense progresses and bodies hold up. Really excited for this season! Love/hate the rivalry with Greensboro!

Tough defense had the Bucs ranked at a high point of about 56th overall by KenPom halfway through conference play when they were 13-0 in the SoCon and 22-4 overall.

That (or better) is the kind of thing that I am sure that Forbes is shooting for this year. And probably why we are hearing guys like Purl demanding toughness from the putative leaders of this offensively promising bunch 3 months out from the season.

(08-20-2018 09:57 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  That (or better) is the kind of thing that I am sure that Forbes is shooting for this year. And probably why we are hearing guys like Purl demanding toughness from the putative leaders of this offensively promising bunch 3 months out from the season.

Who is Purl?

(08-20-2018 12:17 PM)Buced_Up Wrote:  

(08-20-2018 09:57 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  That (or better) is the kind of thing that I am sure that Forbes is shooting for this year. And probably why we are hearing guys like Purl demanding toughness from the putative leaders of this offensively promising bunch 3 months out from the season.

Who is Purl?

Either a coach, administrative/GA staff, or the loudest fly on the wall you ever met...

(08-20-2018 04:00 PM)shampoo Wrote:  

(08-20-2018 12:17 PM)Buced_Up Wrote:  

(08-20-2018 09:57 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  That (or better) is the kind of thing that I am sure that Forbes is shooting for this year. And probably why we are hearing guys like Purl demanding toughness from the putative leaders of this offensively promising bunch 3 months out from the season.

Who is Purl?

Either a coach, administrative/GA staff, or the loudest fly on the wall you ever met...

I’m excited to see where this thread goes.

(08-20-2018 04:00 PM)shampoo Wrote:  

(08-20-2018 12:17 PM)Buced_Up Wrote:  

(08-20-2018 09:57 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  That (or better) is the kind of thing that I am sure that Forbes is shooting for this year. And probably why we are hearing guys like Purl demanding toughness from the putative leaders of this offensively promising bunch 3 months out from the season.

Who is Purl?

Either a coach, administrative/GA staff, or the loudest fly on the wall you ever met...

Browsing the supermarket magazine racks, the preseason predictions add up. There's a conventional wisdom around the top 4 SoCon choices. The 1st three are the same, although the order varies, and Furman occupies a consistent place in 4th, below them but above the others. The same top 3 were the College Sports Madness picks, and my own in April.:

Athlon
#1 UNCG
#2 ETSU
#3 Wofford
#4 Furman

Lindy's
#1 Wofford
#2 UNCG
#3 ETSU
#4 Furman

Street & Smith already cited by others, but worth including for completeness
#1 UNCG
#2 Wofford
#3 ETSU
#4 Furman

Worth not much, except as a gauge of conventional "wisdom" (which is, as the saying goes, always more conventional than wise). Blue Ribbon and KenPom are generally more informative though slower to appear, although KenPom is best when they have actual game data to work with.

Blue Ribbon predictions are out (the SoCon is written by Chris Dortch, Patrick Stevens and Brian Mull), with what has become this year's usual top 3, and Furman in the usual 4th place consolation spot:

#1 Wofford (rated first, but UNCG predicted to get the NCAA nod)
#2 UNCG
#3 ETSU
#4 Furman
#5 Mercer
#6 Chattanooga
#7 Citadel
#8 Samford
#9 Western Carolina
#10 VMI

The top 3 are predicted to have the top 3 back court, and the top 3 front court. Despite the predicted finish with Wofford on top, UNCG is predicted to have both the #1 back court and the #1 front court. Wofford is 2nd in each. ETSU is 3rd.

2 of the top 5 players in the conference go to Wofford (Magee, who is also POY, and Cam Jackson) and 2 to UNCG (Alonso and Dickey). Zane Najdawi, Jordanian national from the Citadel, is 5th. Not one Buc makes the top.

Some interesting observations:

Wofford cites the addition of a good strength coach for improving the strength and conditioning that Mike Young admits was "embarrassing" in the past. Recruiting guys like 6-9 225 So-Tr Chevez Goodwin (said to be strong physically, a shot blocker and rebounder though "will never be a scorer", who will be in the rotation), 6-6 215 Fr Chicagoan Messiah Jones (a Drake decommit "tough as a pine knot and has a great motor") and 6-7 185 Fr Isaiah Bigelow (a Charlotte decommit touted as having guard skills and shooting) will also help with that.

Young credits Fletcher Magee's going through the NBA pre draft process for inspiring the great shooter to focus hard on defense after hearing it bluntly from Danny Ainge and Magic Johnson. We'll see if that makes a difference for him.

Blue Ribbon doesn't say it, but this looks like probably the deepest and most athletic team that Mike Young has had.

6-10 (7-0??) WVU Jr transfer Maciej Bender is said to be sitting out the year (as one would expect) despite being currently listed on the Mercer website as a full roster member. Which is it?

The analysis of the Furman front court is interesting, especially Matt Rafferty - described as physically deficient with a 25 inch vertical, a 185 pound bench press (! ridiculous. With his history of back problems he must be avoiding the weight room). But just a skilled, tough player who can score, rebound, play defense, block shots and grab steals. He's supposedly rated 7th in the country in offensive efficiency by Kenpom. Rs-So Clay Mounce on the other hand has a 40 inch vertical and can throw down a between-the-legs slam - but got a bare 12.8 minutes playing time. Rs-Fr 6-8 Noah Gurley is said to have gained 20 pounds in his redshirt year, and 6-6 true freshman Jalen Slawson bring real shot blocking skills. With the graduation of their 3 best guards, Furman must improve in the front court.

For Western Carolina, they love Mark Prosser, but agree with my assessment of the lack of talent, rating them #9.

As usual, the best and most thorough guide to the mid major world.

(10-01-2018 08:36 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  Blue Ribbon predictions are out, with what has become the usual top 3, and Furman in the usual 4th place consolation spot:

#1 Wofford
#2 UNCG
#3 ETSU
#4 Furman
#5 Mercer
#6 Chattanooga
#7 Citadel
#8 Samford
#9 Western Carolina
#10 VMI

The top 3 are predicted to have the top 3 back court, and the top 3 front court. Despite the predicted finish with Wofford on top, UNCG is predicted to have both the #1 back court and the #1 front court. Wofford is 2nd in each. ETSU is 3rd.

2 of the top 5 players in the conference go to Wofford (Magee, who is also POY, and Cam Jackson) and 2 to UNCG (Alonso and Dickey). Not one Buc makes the top.

Some interesting observations:

Wofford touts the addition of a good strength coach for improving the strength and conditioning that Mike Young admits was "embarrassing" in the past. Recruiting guys like 6-9 225 Goodwin (said to be strong physically, a shot blocker and rebounder though "will never be a scorer", who will be in the rotation), 6-6 215 Chicagoan Messiah Jones (a Drake decommit "tough as a pine knot and has a great motor") and 6-7 185 Isaiah Bigelow (a Charlotte decommit touted as having guard skills and shooting) will also help with that.

Young touts Fletcher Magee's going through the NBA pre draft process for inspiring the great shooter to focus hard on defense after hearing it bluntly from Danny Ainge and Magic Johnson. We'll see if that makes a difference for him.

Blue Ribbon doesn't say it, but this looks like probably the deepest and most athletic team that Mike Young has had.

6-10 (7-0??) WVU transfer Maciej Bender is said to be sitting out the year (as one would expect) despite being currently listed on the Mercer website as a full roster member.

For Western Carolina, they love Mark Prosser, but agree with my assessment of the lack of talent, rating them #9.

As usual, the best and most thorough guide to the mid major world.

But they’ve not seen us play yet!

Something called Barstool Sports ranked all 353 teams. SoCon are:

UTC 309
Mercer 302
VMI. 300
Samford 289
Citadel. 283
WCU. 275
ETSU. 195
Furman. 119
UNCG. 85
Wofford. 65

Said Forbes was a great coach but couldn’t overcome losing the number of playersthey lost and recover from it.

(10-01-2018 03:08 PM)BucPerson Wrote:  Something called Barstool Sports ranked all 353 teams. SoCon are:

UTC 309
Mercer 302
VMI. 300
Samford 289
Citadel. 283
WCU. 275
ETSU. 195
Furman. 119
UNCG. 85
Wofford. 65

Said Forbes was a great coach but couldn’t overcome losing the number of players they lost and recover from it.

Clearly they've spent too much time on that bar stool!

Recovering from losing a large number of players is exactly what Forbes has done every year, bringing the Bucs right back to the SoCon finals. The two returning tournament starters for the Bucs, Armus and Hodges, are proven players, and the influx of 9 JUCO all-Americans, transfers and freshmen are the most promising yet.

I can see rating the loaded UNCG and Wofford teams with all their returnees higher until the Bucs prove it on the floor. Which, after an early shake out period, the Bucs should do. But Furman??? With only 1 proven front court player, and losing their 3 top scorers??? And already losing Andrew Taylor, 1 of their only 2 sought after incoming recruits???

That is the idiosyncratic ranking of someone who just doesn't know the SoCon. As ranking the threadbare Catamounts in the first division, when they lost 3 of the top 5 players from a squad with pitiful stats and add only 2 fairly promising new players, further demonstrates.

Blue Ribbon might be wrong, but at least they know something about the conference. This proves once again that you can find most anything on the internet. Or on a bar stool.

I’ve been looking for love on the barstool. Love your commentary, swva. Bucs make it to the championship game 4th year running.

(10-01-2018 04:28 PM)shampoo Wrote:  I’ve been looking for love on the barstool. Love your commentary, swva. Bucs make it to the championship game 4th year running.

"...in all the wrong places", eh? With apologies to Johny Lee.

(10-01-2018 04:02 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  

(10-01-2018 03:08 PM)BucPerson Wrote:  Something called Barstool Sports ranked all 353 teams. SoCon are:

UTC 309
Mercer 302
VMI. 300
Samford 289
Citadel. 283
WCU. 275
ETSU. 195
Furman. 119
UNCG. 85
Wofford. 65

Said Forbes was a great coach but couldn’t overcome losing the number of players they lost and recover from it.

Clearly they've spent too much time on that bar stool!

Recovering from losing a large number of players is exactly what Forbes has done every year, bringing the Bucs right back to the SoCon finals. The two returning tournament starters for the Bucs, Armus and Hodges, are proven players, and the influx of 9 JUCO all-Americans, transfers and freshmen are the most promising yet.

I can see rating the loaded UNCG and Wofford teams with all their returnees higher until the Bucs prove it on the floor. Which, after an early shake out period, the Bucs should do. But Furman??? With only 1 proven front court player, and losing their 3 top scorers??? And already losing Andrew Taylor, 1 of their only 2 sought after incoming recruits???

That is the idiosyncratic ranking of someone who just doesn't know the SoCon. As ranking the threadbare Catamounts in the first division, when they lost 3 of the top 5 players from a squad with pitiful stats and add only 2 fairly promising new players, further demonstrates.

Blue Ribbon might be wrong, but at least they know something about the conference. This proves once again that you can find most anything on the internet. Or on a bar stool.

I thought you would enjoy that information.