(07-05-2018 04:59 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: Prompted by this post on the ACC board, but more relevant to post here at length. Also discussed in too many other places so it probably needs its own thread.
(07-05-2018 04:13 PM)Statefan Wrote: Isn't the real issue what Disney wants?
The only thing Disney EVER wants to do is make more money for itself and ram through its own selfish political agenda whenever necessary. Period.
What you are seeing right now is Disney vertically integrating. Instead of a pool of conferences negotiating with a pool of broadcasters we're quickly being reduced to a tiny handful of conferences where the broadcasters themselves have near total financial control and actual ownership over the assets that matter most. It doesn't take a genius in accounting at Disney (and they do employ most of their geniuses in that area) to look around at near total ownership of the Big 12, ACC, and SEC .... and the mutual interests those conferences share in playing between each other .... and start to wonder how much money can be saved ... converted into profit ... used as shared revenue between conferences and the mothership ... used as impetus to reorganize everybody to your own whims for maximum financial return on investment and push out dead weight.
Three sets of commissioners. Three sets of league offices. Three sets of all the employees that go with making that operate. Three sets of contentious, costly, and, most importantly to the mouse, unpredictable negotiations. Give the teams a percentage large enough to fuel their endless largess and give them real financial incentive to row the same boat as the media mothership. And then ruthlessly eliminate overhead in the form of league offices. Maximize return on inventory for the media mothership and the schools by making your division small, geographically condensed, and full of historical and traditional rivals that will sell out every year and push you to expand stadium size or at least get full yield on the stands you've got now. No more FCS game, but the political compromise is probably going to be replace the spring game with a FCS team who gets a modest paycheck for showing up. The spring game gets sold with the season ticket booklet and broadcast on TV properly just like NFL preseason. But it doesn't count in the standings ... just like NFL preseason. And let's be real, most of the political pressure to schedule FCS is to fund the little guys in the same state so the taxpayers don't have to. No more out of conference before the post season possibly even, beyond a kickoff game.
It's a big enough gain you can avoid pushing out people who don't fit nicely/perfectly. This avoids getting US and State Congresses involved. But it's just as plausible some people could get pushed out in such a horizontal integration. Small, private, and not filthy rich could be fatal.
Wake Forest, Baylor, Vanderbilt.
So ... a hypothetical horizontal integration (in mine where nobody gets pushed out) ... and you can fiddle with divisions all day I know I do:
Plains Division: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri
Texas Division: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas A&M, TCU,
Delta Division: Ole Miss, Miss State, LSU, Arkansas, Alabama
Gulf Division: Auburn, Florida State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida
South Atlantic Division: Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, Miami
Mid-South Division: North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia
Northeast Division: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Syracuse
Midwest Division: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Kentucky, Cincinnati
The groupings and order are intentional. You're most interested in playing the two divisions nearest to you ... and you're most especially akin to the one you're grouped together with.
One could imagine a similar play by NBC/Comcast in response with Pac-12/B1G/(TBD based upon availability, but they wouldn't need many teams actually). Then, joy of joys for all the accountants involved everywhere on all sides ... you can arrange a playoff where people ascend regional divisional play like this into a championship. And then you can have, every single year, nice and predictably for your financial forecasts, (NBC+Comcast+B1G+Pac12+etc) vs (Disney+Big12+SEC+ACC).
It's just as possible Disney could buy up similar G5 assets for pennies on the dollar and do the same thing. G5 teams might hate the thought, but I think it probably gets them an autobid should the playoff expand to 8. And that's enough money they too would get a fat pay raise.
One big happy fat overly fed corporate family. I wouldn't say I *welcome* our new corporate overlords. But ... as difficult as this is to come to grips with .... Disney might be less soulless and corrupt than the NCAA. Smile for the photo with Mickey!
It's nice to see that in the six years I've been here telling folks that what we call realignment is in reality a hostile corporate takeover of a structurally disjointed and disorganized product called college football, that folks are finally acknowledging what many once decried as crazy.
Yes we are in the final organization phases which will see structure implemented that will guarantee that the CFP delivers the largest possible national audience annually and grouping schools with their rivals into regional divisions that more importantly spread out the iconic brands will be key. It will give them them likely advancement of iconic brands in some future playoff structure based on those divisions that will yield an annual field designed to maximize revenue. It is product placement at its finest.
So in this last set of realignment moves we could see some moves that will fly in the face of what passes for wisdom on message boards. It could be a set of moves that tie up loose ends for key rivalries and which set up nicely for the broadcast players.
How do you corner Notre Dame to add full value for the ACC? It's really pretty simple. You move to four P conferences and make the CFP a champs only and create an internal expansion of the CFP through the Conference Championship rounds. That keeps crowds from having to invest so much in travel, utilizes some of those mid level bowls that ESPN has purchased, and culminates in the engagement of the main 4 broadcast areas.
So does Oklahoma head to the SEC with Oklahoma State? Maybe not. Nebraska / Oklahoma is iconic and is lacking from the TV viewing landscape. Does Texas head to the PAC? I don't think so. Texas / Arkansas and Texas / Texas A&M are too natural and nostalgic to be lost to the nation. Does Kansas have any really major rivals in the Big 10? Nope! They have some kindred schools there they would like to play but their basketball would probably add more value to the SEC than it would to the Big 10 and Missouri is their biggest rival. So screw the cultural fit angle if the networks could have their way Kansas / Missouri in football adds some regional value. Kansas / Kentucky could become almost as lucrative as Noth Carolina / Duke.
What about W.V.U.? Where are they worth more? The ACC with reunions with Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Miami.
So what about Iowa State? Maybe they go with Oklahoma. They are solid in all things and balance out travel for a Big 10 West. Besides the Sooners will need another familiar face to go with Nebraska. And before you shout no, wait to see the regional alignment that such a move makes possible.
And as far as the PAC is concerned they need carriage and they need other marketable time slots so they can either continue to regress or they can grow. But if they grow a divisional structure will be needed that insulates the old core of the PAC from change they don't want.
So GTS, I don't think we will move to a structure that eliminates all duplicated services yet. Fans and schools will need time to acclimate to that and no conference's administration is going to vote themselves out. They could however transition to retiring out of control
So initially we might wind up with something like this:
B1G West: Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Wisconsin.
The last weekend would give you: Iowa/I.S.U., OU/Neb, Ill/N.W., Minn/Wisc. Not bad huh!
B1G East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
The last weekend gives you: Mich/OSU, Rut/Maryland, Ind/Purdue, and MiSt/PSU
In the ACC it solves a lot:
ACC North: Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Gee that kind of looks familiar. I think they once called that the Big East with the addition of Louisville as a former late arrival.
ACC South: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Wake Forest
And for those who have been more recently conceived that would be the Old ACC plus F.S.U.
So what about the SEC with that alien corn Kansas?
SEC West: Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Well that gives a last weekend of the Egg Bowl, Arky/L.S.U., Mizz/KU, and A&M/Horns.
No significant rivalries are with these schools as far as the SEC East is concerned and that's an important factor. L.S.U./Bama and Miss St/Bama might come close but Miss State trails horribly in that series and L.S.U. would probably love being out from under Alabama. L.S.U. / Florida was created in '92 and not loved by either school.
The SEC East: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.
That alignment renews virtually all of the key old rivals that have been lost to realignment.
The PAC's situation is less than ideal, but then so too is their current situation and prospects:
PAC West: California, Cal Los Angeles, Oregon, Oregon State, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
This is the old core of the PAC and who each of them feels most comfortable with. Having them together doesn't harm the other divisions California exposure because they would have games with California schools every year even with a rotation of schools in a set scheduling format of 7 divisional games and 2 rotating cross divisional games.
PAC East: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech, Utah.
This division keeps the new additions of the PAC together and puts them into the CTZ. It also gives them tie in games to Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Nebraska (via Colorado) and all for playing games OOC for ratings and revenue.
Now after we have a setup like this for a while then moving to two leagues of two former conferences each would cut conference expense in half making everyone more money.
The geographic set up and divisional set up will yield a prime flag bearer for each region entering the CCG's which will make everyone more in ad revenue. And the champs keep everyone invested through the semis. And since the nation will watch the finals anyway it's a win all the way through the finals.
When the presidents and A.D.'s are ripe for boost in pay the will likely move to rotating half division like the old WAC and add conference semis for a boost in revenue.
With 12 P games (10 conference & 2 OOC) then Dabo's idea for moving the Spring game to mid to late August and including it in everyone's season ticket book as the 7th home game then makes sense.
The key here is that this final realignment covers the renewal of key annual rivalries, makes geographical sense, has some blurring of regional lines in the middle of the country which ties two regions into watching conference games, and it eliminates the polls, committees, and other distractions from the game although polls will still probably drive mid season talk.
ESPN/FOX or whomever may then line up the CFP bowls and provide some really attractive match ups in the midlevel bowls. Bowls can also continue to pit top G5 schools against their P4 counterparts.
I hate what the corporate takeover has done to the game, but if the final moves could be made and divisional alignment organized to save rivalries, then at least it could still be fun. We live with the reality of corporate crap interfering with our lives everyday, but if it can reward our schools with more revenue and restore what it has damaged then that's probably the best we can do.
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What Disney wants .... vertical (and horizontal) integration?
