(07-22-2018 10:31 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-22-2018 08:08 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(07-21-2018 06:17 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(07-21-2018 06:09 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(07-21-2018 12:39 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Big 12 (and Boren) really wanted a network. This is why they were considering expansion. Needed more inventory for a network.

TV said "no dice" on the network. So the Big 12 did not need more inventory, and thus did not expand.

In retaliation, err exchange for no network, they strong-armed, err, convinced ESPN into paying to delete the pro rata clause. An extra $1M per school per year.

Anyone who thinks the Big 12 will expand now, given the lack of a pro rata clause, is foolish.

All the more reason for the American schools to agree to a medium term GOR (if it means more $$$).

After all, do we want to piuck, or get plucked by, the Big 12 leftovers should that league blow up.

I've been saying it (GOR) for a while now.

If this league does not put a GOR in place immediately and signs it it wil only continue to show poor strength within the conference.

A 10 year GOR should be the minimum but a longer one could be the difference between a weak or healthier tv contract, IMHO.

Houston agrees to a 10 year GOR? Come on, Houston’s dream is the SEC. Last couple of years the new dream for some Coog fans has been the PAC 12. The Big 12 is the most realistic chance for Houston to get back to the Big boy table.
If Big 12 calls tomorrow, Houston takes that invite yesterday.

You can insert any of our names into that statement.

I think the biggest thing we might be gauging incorrectly is the per school amount expected on the next TV deal. I know we have a high opinion of our conference, but the casual fan and the networks don't see it the same way. I think people see us as having some of the better teams in the G5, but G5 all the same.

With that in mind, I think the deals made by the likes of CUSA will be an anchor in our negotiations. Sort of like using your current salary when offering a new job.

In other words, rather than saying "this is how much the B12 makes, but you guys are worth less so...", they will actually be saying "This is what CUSA just signed. You're better than that, so we'll give you X% more". (hint, X does not equal 700 in that scenario).

Anyway... Obviously, a GOR proposition would have to mean a huge jump in loot. If it's the difference between $5m and $15m, I'd be inclined to jump on board. Most would reply "never going to happen" to this, and that's probably true. Just saying that there is a point where the proposition makes sense. Either way, I'm not optimistic that we're just going to pull $12m on the next deal without one. And the recent B12 shenanigans will probably be used against us in negotiations.

Again, all hypothetical.

The best comparison for our value is going to be other sports properties with similar ratings. I’ve made the case that MLS Soccer and the US Rights to Premier League Soccer are excellent similar properties to compare our value as MLS gets lower ratings and Premier gets generally similar ratings. Those properties sell for 75million a year and 160 million a year respectively. The low end there wouldn’t be just over 6 million a team. The high end is just over 13 million a team. I’ve been pretty conservative in my estimate that remains at 6-8 million a team. That estimate also lines up with data Cougar Red generated which looked at our total TV viewership vs P5 total viewership as a percentage and applied that same percentage to P5 earnings to estimate what we should be paid.

Those methods may not pan out—but at least they have some logical basis derived from the marketplace.

I like the idea, but it doesn't address volatility. Is there currently a conference with less stability than ours?

(07-22-2018 10:47 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(07-22-2018 10:31 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-22-2018 08:08 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(07-21-2018 06:17 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(07-21-2018 06:09 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  I've been saying it (GOR) for a while now.

If this league does not put a GOR in place immediately and signs it it wil only continue to show poor strength within the conference.

A 10 year GOR should be the minimum but a longer one could be the difference between a weak or healthier tv contract, IMHO.

Houston agrees to a 10 year GOR? Come on, Houston’s dream is the SEC. Last couple of years the new dream for some Coog fans has been the PAC 12. The Big 12 is the most realistic chance for Houston to get back to the Big boy table.
If Big 12 calls tomorrow, Houston takes that invite yesterday.

You can insert any of our names into that statement.

I think the biggest thing we might be gauging incorrectly is the per school amount expected on the next TV deal. I know we have a high opinion of our conference, but the casual fan and the networks don't see it the same way. I think people see us as having some of the better teams in the G5, but G5 all the same.

With that in mind, I think the deals made by the likes of CUSA will be an anchor in our negotiations. Sort of like using your current salary when offering a new job.

In other words, rather than saying "this is how much the B12 makes, but you guys are worth less so...", they will actually be saying "This is what CUSA just signed. You're better than that, so we'll give you X% more". (hint, X does not equal 700 in that scenario).

Anyway... Obviously, a GOR proposition would have to mean a huge jump in loot. If it's the difference between $5m and $15m, I'd be inclined to jump on board. Most would reply "never going to happen" to this, and that's probably true. Just saying that there is a point where the proposition makes sense. Either way, I'm not optimistic that we're just going to pull $12m on the next deal without one. And the recent B12 shenanigans will probably be used against us in negotiations.

Again, all hypothetical.

The best comparison for our value is going to be other sports properties with similar ratings. I’ve made the case that MLS Soccer and the US Rights to Premier League Soccer are excellent similar properties to compare our value as MLS gets lower ratings and Premier gets generally similar ratings. Those properties sell for 75million a year and 160 million a year respectively. The low end there wouldn’t be just over 6 million a team. The high end is just over 13 million a team. I’ve been pretty conservative in my estimate that remains at 6-8 million a team. That estimate also lines up with data Cougar Red generated which looked at our total TV viewership vs P5 total viewership as a percentage and applied that same percentage to P5 earnings to estimate what we should be paid.

Those methods may not pan out—but at least they have some logical basis derived from the marketplace.

I like the idea, but it doesn't address volatility. Is there currently a conference with less stability than ours?

The conference has been delivering sold ratings for 5 years with each year better than the previous. Expansion is off the table until 2025/26, which will be the duration of the next contract. Instability? There is no new realignment anticipated by any conference until then. I don't understand.

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Can we stop talking about GOR? There is NO evidence that a network is willing to offer the AAC more money with a GOR.

A GOR primarily protects the conference...not the network that has our rights. The network can accomplish the same level of protection against teams leaving the AAC by inserting the clauses that the contract value goes down if certain teams leave. That's a much more affordable way for them to protect the value of their contract.