(06-26-2018 08:36 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Using Sagarin to compare P5 teams with G5 teams is the same as using it to compare with FCS teams -- in both cases the gap in the comparison, and the gap in the data, is the lack of common opponents. FCS teams play less than 10% of their games vs. P5 teams. G5 teams also play less than 10% of their games vs. P5 teams. Even common opponents are very few and far between.

I question that percentage with only about half of the P5 playing an FCS team while the P5 averages about 1.5 G5 on the schedule.

Then G5 average about 1.5 G5 games against other G5 conferences.

Other differences:

-22 additional scholarships in FBS vs. FCS. Walk-on programs are more developed in FBS.

-Playoff games in FCS. Longer seasons and more wins for select teams.

-A lot of G5 programs right now are upgrades from FCS so they haven't had a full recruiting cycle or 2 to compare.

About half of the P5 play FCS and win 97% of the games. The G5 plays close to 1 FCS a year and wins 90% of the time.

If NDSU goes 15-0 every year for a #33 ranking in the Sagarin ranking that subsequently brings up the entire ranking for the MVC-FB I seriously question it.

Let's compare non-conferences the previous 5 years between NDSU and Boise St.


NDSU
2017
Mississippi Valley St.
Eastern Washington
Robert Morris
+4 FCS playoff games

2016
Charleston Southern
Eastern Washington
Iowa
+3 FCS playoff games

2015
Montana
Weber St.
North Dakota
+4 FCS playoff games

2014
Iowa St.
Weber St.
Incarnate Word
+4 FCS playoff games

2013
Kansas St.
Ferris St.
Delaware St.
+4 FCS playoff games

Boise St
2017
Troy
Washington St.
Virginia
BYU
Oregon

2016
Louisiana
Washington St.
Oregon St.
BYU
Baylor

2015
Washington
BYU
Idaho St.
Virginia
Northern Illinois

2014
Mississippi
Connecticut
Louisiana
BYU
Arizona

2013
Washington
Tennessee-Martin
Southern Miss
BYU
Oregon St.

Non-Conference FCS games.

Boise St. 2 of 25 vs. FCS
NDSU 31 of 34 vs. FCS

NDSU rocks a bunch of FCS teams every year, bringing up its own schedule and that for the entire MVC-FB.

Boise plays a non-conference schedule comparable, if not slightly stronger than what the average P5 does.

You're deliberately missing the point. Even though you picked Boise, who almost always plays the most challenging schedule among G5 conference members, they're still playing at least 9 games every year against non-P5 teams. 2017 UCF played 10 G5 opponents and one FCS opponent. And you had to pad your argument by including bowl games. No matter how you spin it, there is still not a large enough sample size to settle any of these typical message board arguments.

When Boise was 13-0 a few years ago, a lot of SEC fans argued that Boise wouldn't win 3 conference games if they played in the SEC. How many would they really win? How many would NDSU win? How many would last year's Central Florida team win? Whatever your opinion, the point is that it's just an opinion. There isn't enough relevant data to make anyone's opinion definitively right or wrong, whether they're a Boise fan or a NDSU fan or a UCF fan or an SEC fan or none of those.

(06-26-2018 11:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  You're deliberately missing the point. Even though you picked Boise, who almost always plays the most challenging schedule among G5 conference members, they're still playing at least 9 games every year against non-P5 teams. 2017 UCF played 10 G5 opponents and one FCS opponent. And you had to pad your argument by including bowl games. No matter how you spin it, there is still not a large enough sample size to settle any of these typical message board arguments.

When Boise was 13-0 a few years ago, a lot of SEC fans argued that Boise wouldn't win 3 conference games if they played in the SEC. How many would they really win? How many would NDSU win? How many would last year's Central Florida team win? Whatever your opinion, the point is that it's just an opinion. There isn't enough relevant data to make anyone's opinion definitively right or wrong, whether they're a Boise fan or a NDSU fan or a UCF fan or an SEC fan or none of those.

P5 and G5 are in the same subdivision, play by the same rules and largely the same quality of non-conference schedule. They are a completely comparable grouping in computer rates.

Comparing P5/G5 to FCS in computer ratings is like comparing MLB to the International League. They are simply a different product.

Playing half a football schedule against MVC foes and the other half against FCS really skews things in a different way. Its very easy for NDSU to run the table in the non-conference and playoffs since some of those FCS conferences are poorly resourced even by FCS standards.

MWC is obviously weaker than the PAC but they are at least directly comparable.

The FBS conferences rank 1 to 10. At what point in the BCS era did we say the Big East was not comparable by computer numbers to the SEC because the BE is the 6th rated conference? Now that its the AAC its in a lower division classification?

That is bull pucky.

NDSU is #33 after averaging about a 14-1 record over 5 years out of the #1 rated FCS conference.

A FCS conference with a #1 rating because.....NDSU plays in it.

(06-26-2018 06:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-26-2018 02:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  South Carolina had an awful 2014-2016 but should be back in the top 50 (and realistically much higher than that) in short order.

So ... I must have been in the bathroom when you guys fired Will Muschamp and replaced him with a competent head football coach?

Time will tell. But to anyone paying attention, in just two years he’s drastically changed the entire culture and operation of the program for the better.