A lot has been made of the PAC's competitive struggles and the failures of the PAC network.

The problem is not a lot can be done about it. Attracting Texas and Oklahoma to a failed model won't work at this point. There isn't any other markets out west that move the needle to be worth expanding with.

UNLV doesn't have the academics. New Mexico has terrible football. Boise State is a small market addition. What they really need is the consistent FB/BB presence of Texas and the Oklahoma schools to make a difference.

If you can't beat them join them. That is the old saying. Arizona State should consider flipping over to the B12 to help them reach their potential. The B12 is going to be a consistent 5-7 NCAA conference every year, not 3 in some years like the PAC. Nationally the B12 has more potential on the bowl front while the PAC is hemmed in regionally.

Arizona State its time to go rogue from its conference and leave the PAC behind.

I actually think the eventual answer is some sort of B12/P12 merger

(06-14-2018 11:11 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I actually think the eventual answer is some sort of B12/P12 merger

I've long thought that could be the 16 or 18 team league that could work if it were a Great Midwest/Metro type merger where not everyone gets merged.

Why ASU?

Before the paywall era of the Mercury News, Wilner gave most reasons why it is not ideal.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/22/a...he-big-12/

Plus, the two hour time difference for 70% of the season is an issue with fans at the first 9AM road conference game in late September.

And moving conferences will have you leave $$$ on the table for some seasons waiting for the big(-ger) score. $3.1M difference in favor of the Big XII isn't worth it if there's a good March Madness run by the conference or a CFP participant and the Big XII is just as bad at getting a CFP entrant.

Then there's the issue with the Olympic sports...

Boise State is not a small market anymore. That town is still growing, and becoming a metro in the state of Idaho. They seemed to be the only one who have been good on tv ratings, football and basketball. Better than the rest of the MWC. PAC 12 might need to stretch out like get Hawaii so that they can reach the east Asia and Australia tv market. Now, the issue with the PAC 12 is that they are stuck in expansion with MWC, big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC or C-USA schools. They could try and get Houston as well.

(06-15-2018 04:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is not a small market anymore. That town is still growing, and becoming a metro in the state of Idaho. They seemed to be the only one who have been good on tv ratings, football and basketball. Better than the rest of the MWC. PAC 12 might need to stretch out like get Hawaii so that they can reach the east Asia and Australia tv market. Now, the issue with the PAC 12 is that they are stuck in expansion with MWC, big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC or C-USA schools. They could try and get Houston as well.

You wrote a lot of words, yet none of them are connected to the main idea of the thread which the OP created.

DO BETTER.

(06-15-2018 04:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is not a small market anymore. That town is still growing, and becoming a metro in the state of Idaho. They seemed to be the only one who have been good on tv ratings, football and basketball. Better than the rest of the MWC. PAC 12 might need to stretch out like get Hawaii so that they can reach the east Asia and Australia tv market. Now, the issue with the PAC 12 is that they are stuck in expansion with MWC, big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC or C-USA schools. They could try and get Houston as well.

Not sure Hawaii will bring the Australian or Asian markets. Maybe you get more eyeballs from American Samoa but that isn’t much at all.

Boise would be a good football fit in the Pac12 but they would be bad in most other sports and you know as well as I that their academics are a non starter

(06-15-2018 04:23 AM)Renandpat Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 04:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is not a small market anymore. That town is still growing, and becoming a metro in the state of Idaho. They seemed to be the only one who have been good on tv ratings, football and basketball. Better than the rest of the MWC. PAC 12 might need to stretch out like get Hawaii so that they can reach the east Asia and Australia tv market. Now, the issue with the PAC 12 is that they are stuck in expansion with MWC, big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC or C-USA schools. They could try and get Houston as well.

You wrote a lot of words, yet none of them are connected to the main idea of the thread which the OP created.

DO BETTER.

I am replying to others on this thread. I do not think Arizona State will leave the PAC 12 on their own. They are stuck right now. The PAC 12's selection candidates are slim, and Boise State seems the best option for them right now. Houston is the other one. Boise State, Houston, UCF, Hawaii, Northern Iowa, Western Michigan all the last schools that made it to the major bowl games that have not been added to a power conference.

(06-15-2018 06:49 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 04:23 AM)Renandpat Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 04:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is not a small market anymore. That town is still growing, and becoming a metro in the state of Idaho. They seemed to be the only one who have been good on tv ratings, football and basketball. Better than the rest of the MWC. PAC 12 might need to stretch out like get Hawaii so that they can reach the east Asia and Australia tv market. Now, the issue with the PAC 12 is that they are stuck in expansion with MWC, big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC or C-USA schools. They could try and get Houston as well.

You wrote a lot of words, yet none of them are connected to the main idea of the thread which the OP created.

DO BETTER.

I am replying to others on this thread. I do not think Arizona State will leave the PAC 12 on their own. They are stuck right now. The PAC 12's selection candidates are slim, and Boise State seems the best option for them right now. Houston is the other one. Boise State, Houston, UCF, Hawaii, Northern Iowa, Western Michigan all the last schools that made it to the major bowl games that have not been added to a power conference.

When did UNI last play in a bowl game?

(06-14-2018 11:17 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I've long thought that could be the 16 or 18 team league that could work if it were a Great Midwest/Metro type merger where not everyone gets merged.

Leaving schools out is just as important as adding new schools. I think it's better to assume that everyone is left out and then only include the schools that really make sense.

There are a few magic numbers:
6 for NCAA conference.
8 for FBS conference
10 for CCG
12 for divisions.

The problem with the Arizona schools in this scenario are:
A) per capita CFB interest (in terms of viewers) is bad in Arizona. It's on par with California and well below Washington, Oregon, and Colorado.
B) there isn't a clear better program. ASU has an edge being in a larger metro with easier travel, but AZ has an edge (slightly) with academics (not as much as most think) and also basketball.

If you want to bring in the Arizona market, which isn't quite as valuable as the population suggests due to low interest, which program do you take? That either helps or hurts the Arizona schools, but it would definitely help a conference merger if one became the clear top dog.

NCAA Conference (6 members)
Easy: Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma. This 6 member conference I believe would still have more titles than any other NCAA conference. The schools would have no problem scheduling well as FBS independents.

FBS Conference (8 members)
Washington and Oregon are a step ahead of any other PAC or BigXII programs. They are clearly numbers 7 and 8 provided they leave little brother behind.

Conference Championship (10 members)
Maybe you stop at 8, because now things get less clear. If one Arizona school steps forward, then it's Colorado and one of AZ/ASU. Assuming that hasn't happened, it's CU and Utah.

Divisional Alignment (12 members)
KU plus one of the Arizona schools.

At 12 that leaves:
East: UT, OU, KU, CU, UU, ASU (or Arizona).
West: UW, UO, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC.

That's basically 90% of the BigXII and PAC revenue and talent split 12 ways instead of 22 ways. It's also the alignment that lets all of the schools have enough CA and TX exposure to recruit both states effectively while only playing an 8 game conference schedule. The 8 game schedule also allows the schools to play the left-behind in state rival annually.

Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
TCU
Baylor
Texas
Texas Tech
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Colorado
BYU
New Mexico
Arizona
Arizona State

Just get rid of West Virginia.m and you have good southwestern conference of 14 schools.

(06-14-2018 11:30 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Why ASU?

1) They aren't in California. California schools will probably stay put regardless for the academic association.

2) They weren't recently added to the PAC like Utah and Colorado. Neither of those really care about the on the field performance (Colorado especially).

3) Little brother syndrome with the University of Arizona. Pull a TAMU type move and join a bigger FB conference.

Arizona State is the only one I think that could be plucked from the PAC. BYU then becomes a reasonable pairing partner to go to 12. BYU can be a FB only situation.

(06-15-2018 06:51 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 06:49 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 04:23 AM)Renandpat Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 04:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is not a small market anymore. That town is still growing, and becoming a metro in the state of Idaho. They seemed to be the only one who have been good on tv ratings, football and basketball. Better than the rest of the MWC. PAC 12 might need to stretch out like get Hawaii so that they can reach the east Asia and Australia tv market. Now, the issue with the PAC 12 is that they are stuck in expansion with MWC, big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC or C-USA schools. They could try and get Houston as well.

You wrote a lot of words, yet none of them are connected to the main idea of the thread which the OP created.

DO BETTER.

I am replying to others on this thread. I do not think Arizona State will leave the PAC 12 on their own. They are stuck right now. The PAC 12's selection candidates are slim, and Boise State seems the best option for them right now. Houston is the other one. Boise State, Houston, UCF, Hawaii, Northern Iowa, Western Michigan all the last schools that made it to the major bowl games that have not been added to a power conference.

When did UNI last play in a bowl game?

Northern Illinois lost to Florida State in the Orange Bowl. In 2013, Northern Illinois was ranked higher in the BCS polls to get the shot to play Florida State. Boise State was not that far behind them in the Poll. The score was 31-10 in FSU's favor.

(06-15-2018 06:52 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-14-2018 11:17 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I've long thought that could be the 16 or 18 team league that could work if it were a Great Midwest/Metro type merger where not everyone gets merged.

Leaving schools out is just as important as adding new schools. I think it's better to assume that everyone is left out and then only include the schools that really make sense.

There are a few magic numbers:
6 for NCAA conference.
8 for FBS conference
10 for CCG
12 for divisions.

The problem with the Arizona schools in this scenario are:
A) per capita CFB interest (in terms of viewers) is bad in Arizona. It's on par with California and well below Washington, Oregon, and Colorado.
B) there isn't a clear better program. ASU has an edge being in a larger metro with easier travel, but AZ has an edge (slightly) with academics (not as much as most think) and also basketball.

If you want to bring in the Arizona market, which isn't quite as valuable as the population suggests due to low interest, which program do you take? That either helps or hurts the Arizona schools, but it would definitely help a conference merger if one became the clear top dog.

NCAA Conference (6 members)
Easy: Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma. This 6 member conference I believe would still have more titles than any other NCAA conference. The schools would have no problem scheduling well as FBS independents.

FBS Conference (8 members)
Washington and Oregon are a step ahead of any other PAC or BigXII programs. They are clearly numbers 7 and 8 provided they leave little brother behind.

Conference Championship (10 members)
Maybe you stop at 8, because now things get less clear. If one Arizona school steps forward, then it's Colorado and one of AZ/ASU. Assuming that hasn't happened, it's CU and Utah.

Divisional Alignment (12 members)
KU plus one of the Arizona schools.

At 12 that leaves:
East: UT, OU, KU, CU, UU, ASU (or Arizona).
West: UW, UO, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC.

That's basically 90% of the BigXII and PAC revenue and talent split 12 ways instead of 22 ways. It's also the alignment that lets all of the schools have enough CA and TX exposure to recruit both states effectively while only playing an 8 game conference schedule. The 8 game schedule also allows the schools to play the left-behind in state rival annually.

Is 10 actually required for a CCG? I thought the limit was dropped.

Arizona State isn't going anywhere without Arizona.

The 'little brother' syndrome in this case is slight, ASU has its own shine, isn't in AZ's shadow despite AZ being the flagship.

Funny how talk of Big 12 being in trouble has shifted to the PAC recently.

But the PAC isn't in trouble either.

(06-15-2018 07:06 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 06:51 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 06:49 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 04:23 AM)Renandpat Wrote:  

(06-15-2018 04:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is not a small market anymore. That town is still growing, and becoming a metro in the state of Idaho. They seemed to be the only one who have been good on tv ratings, football and basketball. Better than the rest of the MWC. PAC 12 might need to stretch out like get Hawaii so that they can reach the east Asia and Australia tv market. Now, the issue with the PAC 12 is that they are stuck in expansion with MWC, big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC or C-USA schools. They could try and get Houston as well.

You wrote a lot of words, yet none of them are connected to the main idea of the thread which the OP created.

DO BETTER.

I am replying to others on this thread. I do not think Arizona State will leave the PAC 12 on their own. They are stuck right now. The PAC 12's selection candidates are slim, and Boise State seems the best option for them right now. Houston is the other one. Boise State, Houston, UCF, Hawaii, Northern Iowa, Western Michigan all the last schools that made it to the major bowl games that have not been added to a power conference.

When did UNI last play in a bowl game?

Northern Illinois lost to Florida State in the Orange Bowl. In 2013, Northern Illinois was ranked higher in the BCS polls to get the shot to play Florida State. Boise State was not that far behind them in the Poll. The score was 31-10 in FSU's favor.

He's pointing out that you said Northern Iowa instead of Northern Illinois

This...

When The ACC signed it's GOR extension in return for an ACC Network, The Big 12 bloggers dropped their "ACC is Dead" banter and simply inserted The PAC instead of The ACC. SSDD...

The PAC isn't in trouble anymore than any other conference. The idea of a merger between The PAC and Big 12 might have some merit but a bunch of decisions would have to be made beyond what to do with an easterly WVU. For example, what to do with Baylor....
CJ

(06-15-2018 07:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Arizona State isn't going anywhere without Arizona.

The 'little brother' syndrome in this case is slight, ASU has its own shine, isn't in AZ's shadow despite AZ being the flagship.

Funny how talk of Big 12 being in trouble has shifted to the PAC recently.

But the PAC isn't in trouble either.

(06-14-2018 11:11 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I actually think the eventual answer is some sort of B12/P12 merger

Since the PAC and Big 12 both have redundancy in multiple states, I believe the only answer is for the best of the PAC and Big 12 should form a new conference.

New Western Power Conference (WPC)
USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford
Ore, Wash, Ariz, Col
Tex, Ok, Kan, Neb, Mizzou, Iowa St

At that point, the Old PAC and Old Big 12 will have to decide merge or rebuild with other schools.

Old PAC-Old Big 12 merger
Ore St, Wash St, Ariz St, Utah
TT, Ok St, Kan St, Bay, TCU, WV

Or Rebuilt PAC
Ore St, Wash St, Ariz St, Utah
BYU, Boise St, UNLV, New Mex, Col St, Hawaii, SDSU, Fresno St

Rebuilt Big 12
TT, Ok St, Kan St, Bay, TCU, WV,
Houston, Memphis, Cincy, UConn, UCF, USF

(06-15-2018 04:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is not a small market anymore. That town is still growing, and becoming a metro in the state of Idaho. They seemed to be the only one who have been good on tv ratings, football and basketball. Better than the rest of the MWC. PAC 12 might need to stretch out like get Hawaii so that they can reach the east Asia and Australia tv market. Now, the issue with the PAC 12 is that they are stuck in expansion with MWC, big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC or C-USA schools. They could try and get Houston as well.

Even with the growth, Boise's market is still small time. The PAC can't lure Texas, Oklahoma or any other Big 12 program. The only real options for them are big Texas universities in big Texas markets. Houston is their best option right now, but they need a partner.

The only other larger Texas universities in large markets are North Texas, UTEP, and UTSA. None of the three currently have similar budget numbers or the recent history of success on the field that Houston does. Of the three named, North Texas is closest in budget, winning, student enrollment, and alumni size. None of the PAC's Texas options, including Houston, have the academics desired by the PAC, and I know at least Houston and North Texas are both Tier 1 research universities. I just don't see the PAC ready to expand with these options. 5 or 10 years down the road, they may feel differently, or have better options.

I know Rice is openly campaigning for a spot in the PAC. They are the only Texas university with the academics the PAC is looking for, but they are a very small private school with a very small alumni base. In the Houston market, U of H just makes more sense.