(06-19-2018 04:16 PM)joeben69 Wrote: (06-19-2018 12:55 PM)MechaKnight Wrote: If the AAC loses...
1 school - replace with Army
2 schools - stay at 10 (division format)
3 schools - stay at 9 (round robin format)
4 schools - add Army, stay at 9
5 schools - reorganize with CUSA/SBC
doesn't the aac/bec have a history of just raiding cusa a la carte instead of reorganizing with other conferences???...even though reorging with cusa & sbc does makes sense in theory...
*football schools
2005
University of Cincinnati - CUSA --> Big East Conference (American)
University of Louisville - CUSA --> Big East (American)
University of South Florida - CUSA --> BEC (American)
= 3 teams
2013
University of Central Florida - CUSA --> American Athletic Conference (AAC)
University of Houston - CUSA --> American Athletic (AAC)
University of Memphis - CUSA --> American (AAC)
Southern Methodist University - CUSA --> AAC
= 4 teams
2014
East Carolina University - CUSA --> AAC
Tulane University - CUSA --> AAC
University of Tulsa - CUSA --> AAC
= 3 teams
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conference...er_members
next round will probably be more of the same...a reorg with what's left of CUSA & SBC may feasible...perhaps they could merge into a new southwest conference (SWC)...
Well if you look at the schools that were in CUSA when the last seven who joined the American were still in it (UCF, Houston, SMU, Memphis, ECU, Tulane, Tulsa) they are: UTEP, Rice, USM, UAB, Marshall
That is you short list. UTEP is too remote (Mountain time zone); Marshall is a zero market and recruiting zone (also academically the weakest); Rice overlaps Houston so wont be considered as long as they are around; Southern Miss has the smallest budget and endowment, another tiny market; UAB restarted football, and it has been awhile since they mattered in basketball, but they are the best fit geographically and academically for the American.
I suspect given the "meh" nature of that list, you are likely to see the American look beyond the old CUSA members for replacements. ODU is a well funded new program, although without great success in FBS, which fits nicely as a DMV region school. Army used to be a CUSA member, and would be a welcome addition, but they do not seem to be interested - it would take several years to unload their schedule, and they are worried about competitiveness. UMass is normally a strong Basketball school and academically would near the top, although football they are weak, also New England is an almost worthless recruiting desert. It gets pretty thin after that, with Buffalo and FIU at least checking off the major research university box. Toledo seems to me to be the best of the rest, better funded than the other MAC schools, and one of the stronger academically.
If the AAC went about expansion logically, we could predict it. But they swing widely and are influenced by whomever is hot at the moment, and fixing the last problem, rather than having a game plan. So who they leans toward in 2024 is unpredictable. The list of names above, plus taking a flier at some MWC schools or BYU would be expected, but unlikely to work.
In all I am of the opinion they will only add 1 school if they lose 1 school, in order to keep balanced, and they will only add 1 school if they lose 3, due to the mediocre quality of what they have to choose from. If they lose two they will stand at 10. I think it's highly unlikely they lose more than 2 anyway, 1 the most likely number.