The Tidy Bowl Man is leading the blue wave.

Quote:A tiny fraction of Texas registered voters had an outsized impact on the May 22 runoffs. Here’s a look at what you need to know about Tuesday night’s election returns — and what they mean for the November general election:
Democrat Lupe Valdez will take on Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in November.

Lupe Valdez has made history. Some 14 years ago, the liberal, gay Latina set her sights on an unlikely goal: Dallas County sheriff. Now, she’ll take on an even bigger challenge — running against the popular incumbent Republican governor.

Valdez officially accepted her party’s nomination Tuesday night, narrowly defeating Andrew White with around 52 percent of the vote. But she faces an uphill battle against Abbott, who touts a high approval rating and a $41 million war chest in an ultraconservative state.
Democratic voters made some history of their own. And it wasn’t pretty.

As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, just 415,000 Democrats had cast ballots in the gubernatorial runoff. For reference, that’s a decline of almost 60 percent from the 1 million Texans who cast ballots in the March Democratic primary.

That’s the largest primary-to-runoff decline — and the smallest number of ballots cast — in the 14 Democratic gubernatorial primary runoffs held since 1920. That year, 449,000 Democrats voted, according to Texas Election Source’s analysis of Texas State Historical Association data.

Keep reading here....

Texas Tribune is the leftist Texas democrat rag. Notice the term "ultraconservtive state". Why use hyperbolic rhetoric.

Lupe has no shot, she owes $12k in property taxes and Texas is not going blue.

“Since 1920”...


Lol.

Is Georgia still in play?!?

Muh Blue Drip

my sides

Quote:As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, just 415,000 Democrats had cast ballots in the gubernatorial runoff. For reference, that’s a decline of almost 60 percent from the 1 million Texans who cast ballots in the March Democratic primary.

That’s the largest primary-to-runoff decline — and the smallest number of ballots cast — in the 14 Democratic gubernatorial primary runoffs held since 1920. That year, 449,000 Democrats voted, according to Texas Election Source’s analysis of Texas State Historical Association data.

Back in 1948, LBJ was in a Democrat run-off for the Senate nomination. He stole that run-off in circumstances that are legendary among Texans of a certain age, and among political junkies in general. But I mention it now because there were about ~988,000 votes cast in that run-off election. In a state with about 7.5m total population — compared to 28m (prob. more) today.

(05-25-2018 11:06 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Is Georgia still in play?!?

I can’t see a viable path for Abrams to actually win the election in November. I can see a viable path for her to keep it close (say, 52-47). On the plus side, she is a tireless and effective campaigner and both of the 2 possible GOP opponents are about as much fun as reheated oatmeal. On the negative side, her views are simply not in sync — not even close — to most Georgians. Challenge for the GOP is to point out that fact without antagonizing the soft-moderate Bush/Romney types.

Good job. I couldn't stand him when he was an alderman much less a Senator.

I got the sense White was happy he lost. He spent a bit of money on the runoff but he probably had no desire to tap into his war chest to take on Abbott.

I still think Beto has a chance - Ted Cruz isn't nearly as popular as Greg Abbott. I also think Dan Patrick is susceptible, but I know zero about who is running against him. The turnout in November will be solid, I predict. My local congressional race will be super heated - I think the Republican incumbent is in serious trouble of losing to the Democratic challenger (who is Indian - there is a huge, growing Indian population in Fort Bend County).

(05-25-2018 05:45 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I still think Beto has a chance - Ted Cruz isn't nearly as popular as Greg Abbott.

Hillary! got 43.2% statewide against a GOP nominee with much higher negatives in TX than Ted Cruz. If Beto can run ahead of her mark, I’ll be extremely impressed. But as for winning the race outright — please.

Quote:My local congressional race will be super heated - I think the Republican incumbent is in serious trouble of losing to the Democratic challenger (who is Indian - there is a huge, growing Indian population in Fort Bend County).

In TX-22, Pete Olson ran ahead of Greg Abbott in 2014, and ran way ahead of Donald Trump in 2016. Unless there’s some scandal, he won’t lose this year.

(05-25-2018 08:17 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(05-25-2018 05:45 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I still think Beto has a chance - Ted Cruz isn't nearly as popular as Greg Abbott.

Hillary! got 43.2% statewide against a GOP nominee with much higher negatives in TX than Ted Cruz. If Beto can run ahead of her mark, I’ll be extremely impressed. But as for winning the race outright — please.

Quote:My local congressional race will be super heated - I think the Republican incumbent is in serious trouble of losing to the Democratic challenger (who is Indian - there is a huge, growing Indian population in Fort Bend County).

In TX-22, Pete Olson ran ahead of Greg Abbott in 2014, and ran way ahead of Donald Trump in 2016. Unless there’s some scandal, he won’t lose this year.

Trust me on the local ballot - I think I do have a better sense of what is going on here locally than you. The Democratic candidate in 2016 was weak (Mark Gibson, he ran a distant 5th in the Democratic primary this year). Fort Bend County voted for Clinton in 2016. And as I said, it's got a growing Indian (and Asian) population that probably votes conservative for the most part but they will cross over to vote for one of their own I believe. Kulkarni didn't win the primary right away because there is also a large black population in the district and they were most likely voting for one of the black candidates running.

Just file this away until November, and see if I'm right or not. Cook Partisan Index has this district currently as leaning Republican (+10) but I am predicting an upset.

(05-25-2018 08:35 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Trust me on the local ballot - I think I do have a better sense of what is going on here locally than you.

Point taken. What’s your take on the fact that barely 15,000 people voted in the Dem. runoff in TX-22? Out of 800,000+ people (not all voters, of course, but still...)

Quote:Fort Bend County voted for Clinton in 2016.

TX-22 didn’t. Trump by 8. And Olson by 19.

Quote:Just file this away until November, and see if I'm right or not. Cook Partisan Index has this district currently as leaning Republican (+10) but I am predicting an upset.

We shall see.

By the way, I’m more than willing to admit that the GOP gerrymandering in TX was especially brutal, and the 25-11 break they currently enjoy couldn’t possibly withstand a neutral map.

(05-25-2018 12:29 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(05-25-2018 11:06 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Is Georgia still in play?!?

I can’t see a viable path for Abrams to actually win the election in November. I can see a viable path for her to keep it close (say, 52-47). On the plus side, she is a tireless and effective campaigner and both of the 2 possible GOP opponents are about as much fun as reheated oatmeal. On the negative side, her views are simply not in sync — not even close — to most Georgians. Challenge for the GOP is to point out that fact without antagonizing the soft-moderate Bush/Romney types.

I suspect the Georgia comment was a joke. IIRC, there were reports late in the presidential election that the state was in play.

(05-25-2018 08:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Point taken. What’s your take on the fact that barely 15,000 people voted in the Dem. runoff in TX-22? Out of 800,000+ people (not all voters, of course, but still...)

I think we only had 2 things to vote on? One was the Governor runoff, which was a boring vote between two people who have no chance to come close to Abbott. And then the other was the TX-22 runoff. I know I was trying to vote on the way home but it poured that day (it's rained most of the week - I can't recall how much we got that day but we had one day this week with 2 inches and another day with 4 inches). Still it had stopped raining and I could have voted but I was too lazy.

The Republicans had 2 runoffs too, and their voting totals were only half of the Democratic voting. Granted, their races were even more boring (County treasurer and a judge) but I don't know if you can say the Democratic turnout was bad when the Republican turnout was even worse and there are more registered Republicans than Democrats.

(05-25-2018 09:38 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(05-25-2018 08:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Point taken. What’s your take on the fact that barely 15,000 people voted in the Dem. runoff in TX-22? Out of 800,000+ people (not all voters, of course, but still...)

I think we only had 2 things to vote on? One was the Governor runoff, which was a boring vote between two people who have no chance to come close to Abbott. And then the other was the TX-22 runoff. I know I was trying to vote on the way home but it poured that day (it's rained most of the week - I can't recall how much we got that day but we had one day this week with 2 inches and another day with 4 inches). Still it had stopped raining and I could have voted but I was too lazy.
The Republicans had 2 runoffs too, and their voting totals were only half of the Democratic voting. Granted, their races were even more boring (County treasurer and a judge) but I don't know if you can say the Democratic turnout was bad when the Republican turnout was even worse and there are more registered Republicans than Democrats.

Who is the democrat candidate for Lt.Gov.? I don't even know. That's really sad because the way Texas is set up, there is a strong argument that the Lt.Gov. is really more powerful than the Gov.

I voted for Leticia van de Putte last time because I had worked with both her and Patrick at different times, and Leticia is not an idiot. I will probably vote straight libertarian this time.

Mike Collier - Former Republican who switched to become a Democrat several years ago because he was dissatisfied with the policies and actions of the GOP. Definitely a middle of the road type guy but he'll get trounced. He barely beat Michael Cooper, an auto salesman from Beaumont in the primary.

Based on his numbers and his beliefs (and his background as an accountant), my guess is he must be an incredibly un-dynamic public speaker.

(05-26-2018 06:27 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Mike Collier - Former Republican who switched to become a Democrat several years ago because he was dissatisfied with the policies and actions of the GOP. Definitely a middle of the road type guy but he'll get trounced. He barely beat Michael Cooper, an auto salesman from Beaumont in the primary.
Based on his numbers and his beliefs (and his background as an accountant), my guess is he must be an incredibly un-dynamic public speaker.

Hey, don't be so hard on accountants.

He's probably a democrat I could vote for. I'll have to do some reading up on him. I tend to think the most sensible people we've had in politics recently may have been the blue dogs. But their party killed them. Now bot sides are just too radical for me. I can't support the republican social agenda, and I can't support the democrat tax, spend, and redistribute agenda.

I'll probably just vote straight libertarian. In Montgomery County there will probably be more libertarians than democrats on the general election ballot. And republicans will win everything by landslides.