Congrats Bannonites/Trumpers

https://www.axios.com/charlie-dent-retir...44d75.html

LOL - Now you guys get to try to hold this one in a special election. It was probably gone anyway in November, but.

Of the 40 resignations/retirements, lets review the important ones so far this cycle

Resignation/Retirement creates a lean Dem or likely Dem pickup opportunity

Dent - PA
McSally - AZ (running for Senate)
Schuster - PA
Royce - CA
Reichart - WA
Murphy - PA (seat already flipped to Connor Lamb)
Meehan - PA
Issa - CA
Freylighausen - NJ

Resignation/Retirement creates a true toss up seat

Trott - MI
LoBiondo - NJ (I'm being generous to the GOP here)

Resignation/Retirement creates a lean GOP from a much safer GOP seat

Smith - TX
Poe - TX
Pearce - NM (running for Governor - will lose - badly)
Tiberi - OH (special election danger too)
Ryan - WI
Ross - FL
Hansarling - TX
Franks - AZ - it feels nuts even putting this one here, as the district is very Republican, but the GOP is spending millions here
Farenthold - TX - Special election coming
Barton - TX

Senate

Sessions - AL - Seat already flipped. Thanks Bannonites
Hatch - UT - Seat is safe, but will be replaced with another nominally non-Trump supporter
Flake - His departure creates a tossup/lean Dem seat. Thanks Trump
Corker - This seat is at worst for the Dems, a tossup right now. And this just shouldn't be the case. Thanks Trump/Bannon for forcing him out.

----


A few thoughts so far. Six of the House seats likely to flip as of right now, are held by moderate Republicans not facing scandals that have been basically forced out or too appalled to run again. That's 25% of the seats need to take control. Thanks GOPers.

The GOPers retiring/resigning from marginal seats are generally not doing so to run for higher office (only 2 are - and one is unlikely to win, the other is slightly behind/tied).

In the Senate, Trump and Bannon have messed things up - badly. Had they rallied around Luther in Alabama, not forced out Corker, and not forced out Flake, the Dems would have ZERO chance of taking the Senate. As things stand right now, the best case scenario for the GOP is to 'hold' control being completely dependent upon Murkowski (who hates Trump) and Collins (who also hates Trump and will have to run for reelection in 2020 - watch out - she could walk the floor).

I wish more of them would flee.

The American people will get the government they deserve. If it is do-nothing hand-wringers or another round of Nancy Pelosi...so be it.

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(04-17-2018 03:26 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Congrats Bannonites/Trumpers

https://www.axios.com/charlie-dent-retir...44d75.html

LOL - Now you guys get to try to hold this one in a special election. It was probably gone anyway in November, but.

Of the 40 resignations/retirements, lets review the important ones so far this cycle

Resignation/Retirement creates a lean Dem or likely Dem pickup opportunity

Dent - PA
McSally - AZ (running for Senate)
Schuster - PA
Royce - CA
Reichart - WA
Murphy - PA (seat already flipped to Connor Lamb)
Meehan - PA
Issa - CA
Freylighausen - NJ

Resignation/Retirement creates a true toss up seat

Trott - MI
LoBiondo - NJ (I'm being generous to the GOP here)

Resignation/Retirement creates a lean GOP from a much safer GOP seat

Smith - TX
Poe - TX
Pearce - NM (running for Governor - will lose - badly)
Tiberi - OH (special election danger too)
Ryan - WI
Ross - FL
Hansarling - TX
Franks - AZ - it feels nuts even putting this one here, as the district is very Republican, but the GOP is spending millions here
Farenthold - TX - Special election coming
Barton - TX

Senate

Sessions - AL - Seat already flipped. Thanks Bannonites
Hatch - UT - Seat is safe, but will be replaced with another nominally non-Trump supporter
Flake - His departure creates a tossup/lean Dem seat. Thanks Trump
Corker - This seat is at worst for the Dems, a tossup right now. And this just shouldn't be the case. Thanks Trump/Bannon for forcing him out.

----


A few thoughts so far. Six of the House seats likely to flip as of right now, are held by moderate Republicans not facing scandals that have been basically forced out or too appalled to run again. That's 25% of the seats need to take control. Thanks GOPers.

The GOPers retiring/resigning from marginal seats are generally not doing so to run for higher office (only 2 are - and one is unlikely to win, the other is slightly behind/tied).

In the Senate, Trump and Bannon have messed things up - badly. Had they rallied around Luther in Alabama, not forced out Corker, and not forced out Flake, the Dems would have ZERO chance of taking the Senate. As things stand right now, the best case scenario for the GOP is to 'hold' control being completely dependent upon Murkowski (who hates Trump) and Collins (who also hates Trump and will have to run for reelection in 2020 - watch out - she could walk the floor).

If he or she was a RINO, then good -- no, GREAT -- riddance!

The more RINOs lose then the better the chance the GOP returns to their senses.

But I doubt that will happen. They're too power-drunk rubbing elbows with their ideological Democratic soul mates.

Yay. Drain the swamp

I read today where a large Republican donor said he was switching his donations to the Democrats because of Trump.

Cool! Go buy some Democrats instead.

Anyone who is just as comfortable purchasing Democrat agenda as he is Republican agenda has no firm beliefs anyway beyond corruption.

Git!

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What does this have to do with Prague?

(04-17-2018 04:23 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  What does this have to do with Prague?

No clue, you'll have to ask Michael Cohen about that.

Although, the likelihood of further Trump scandals/eruptions/embarrassments is probably driving some of these folks to the exits. Some of these people quitting have possibly seen some of the stuff coming down the pike too.

Hey, if you guys want to attempt to govern with your -3% mandate as if you won the election by 30 percent, you go right ahead (which is what y'all are doing).

If y'all want to throw away a 90 percent ally and replace them with a Democrat, I'll help you do that. By the way, thanks for doing that and getting us Senator Doug Jones (D-Alabama). He will enjoy serving with Senator Phil Bredesen (D-Tenn) and ......possibly Senator Mike Espy (D-Mississippi) and Senator Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) in 2019. We can't do it without you guys. And you certainly helped us in Alabama. Can you please nominate Chris McDaniel in Mississippi and continue to go full on anti-Mexican-American throught the election in the name of 'purity'. That would be very helpful for us.

Keep up the good work Tom. Enjoy these posts. You are a good American sir.