Didn't see this mentioned in other threads.

There are a number of FB rule changes that passed this year, the two biggest I see are the fair catch inside the 25 and leaping rule. Not a big fan of either, suspect we will see a lot more fair catches than return attempts as a result.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/medi...e-approved

I’m not a fan of that fair catch rule at all. I guess there will be more scoring now since all drives start on the 25 yard line? No more pinning a team down at the goal line? No more safeties except on rare occasions where penalties back you up?
Where’s the excitement in this game anymore? I understand player safety but they may as well just never have punts or kickoffs ever again at this rate.

I think a surprising number of kickoff returns will still be attempted.

I'm not saying it will happen for sure, but it will not surprise me if kickoffs altogether are eliminated from the pro game within the next 3 years. There already is a lot of talk about it. And, as often happens, if it happens at that level, the college game may (and I stress "may", not "will") follow suit.

The fair catch only applies to kick offs if I read it correctly, so punting will still be critical


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Yeah these seem like baby steps to reduce the frequency of the kickoff return and then the next question becomes “why do we attempt kickoffs anymore?”.

If they take KOs out of the game will that mean no more onside kick attempts? I guess they can give the 'kicking' team the option (failure would sacrifice field position) but will certainly mean no more surprise onside kicks.

HS rules nation-side eliminated the “pop-up” onside kick this past season. The days of high skill onside kicks are gone for HS football.

The new spring league, AAL, has eliminated the kickoff:
“The kickoff is the least popular play, so why do we still have it?” league founder Charlie Ebersol said on CBS, via Pro Football Talk. “If you want to go for an onside kick, we give you the ball on your own 35 facing fourth-and-10. If you can convert you get to keep the ball and go. If you don’t, the other team gets the ball.”

If you don't want to "onside kick" the other team gets the ball at their own 25.

The NFL is going to monitor.

https://clutchpoints.com/nfl-news-allian...h-closely/

(04-16-2018 07:35 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  The new spring league, AAL, has eliminated the kickoff:
“The kickoff is the least popular play, so why do we still have it?” league founder Charlie Ebersol said on CBS, via Pro Football Talk. “If you want to go for an onside kick, we give you the ball on your own 35 facing fourth-and-10. If you can convert you get to keep the ball and go. If you don’t, the other team gets the ball.”

If you don't want to "onside kick" the other team gets the ball at their own 25.

The NFL is going to monitor.

https://clutchpoints.com/nfl-news-allian...h-closely/

Hmmm, I have no idea what the actual odds are, but I think I would like my odds better on a 4th and 10 try than an onside kick. Interesting.

(04-16-2018 07:52 AM)olddawg Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 07:35 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  The new spring league, AAL, has eliminated the kickoff:
“The kickoff is the least popular play, so why do we still have it?” league founder Charlie Ebersol said on CBS, via Pro Football Talk. “If you want to go for an onside kick, we give you the ball on your own 35 facing fourth-and-10. If you can convert you get to keep the ball and go. If you don’t, the other team gets the ball.”

If you don't want to "onside kick" the other team gets the ball at their own 25.

The NFL is going to monitor.

https://clutchpoints.com/nfl-news-allian...h-closely/

Hmmm, I have no idea what the actual odds are, but I think I would like my odds better on a 4th and 10 try than an onside kick. Interesting.

I'll try to get some more numbers to back up what I've seen online, but so far it appears that surprise onside kicks work 60% of the time, and expected onside kicks work less than 20% of the time. Not sure about the odds of converting a 4th and 10, but this seems like a much better way of spending my Monday than actual work

(04-16-2018 07:52 AM)olddawg Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 07:35 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  The new spring league, AAL, has eliminated the kickoff:
“The kickoff is the least popular play, so why do we still have it?” league founder Charlie Ebersol said on CBS, via Pro Football Talk. “If you want to go for an onside kick, we give you the ball on your own 35 facing fourth-and-10. If you can convert you get to keep the ball and go. If you don’t, the other team gets the ball.”

If you don't want to "onside kick" the other team gets the ball at their own 25.

The NFL is going to monitor.

https://clutchpoints.com/nfl-news-allian...h-closely/

Hmmm, I have no idea what the actual odds are, but I think I would like my odds better on a 4th and 10 try than an onside kick. Interesting.

Finding data back as far as 2009 NFL season, NFL teams convert about 17% of their onside kicks, with a min of 12% and a max of 28% (2009; 10 for 36). Three different years had percentages of at least 20%. This figure does not include a breakdown of expected vs surprise onside kicks.

The data that I can find on 4th down conversion shows a number around 20% on 4th and 10, with some studies done solely on NFL and other on NCAA.

It seems like a pretty even split, and I will say I am excited to see the new "onside kick" in action in the AAFL (or whatever it is called).