(04-17-2018 07:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (04-16-2018 09:02 PM)billybobby777 Wrote: (04-16-2018 06:46 PM)GTFletch Wrote: (04-14-2018 06:01 PM)johnbragg Wrote: I had discounted that as management prattle. But you might be right here--maybe ESPN is getting high on their own supply, as it were.
I really don't think there's any value added in replacing a locally produced pregame show specific to the Indiana PAcers (or whoever) with an NBA Today produced in Bristol. Yes you save some amount of money, (1 show instead of 22, 23 if you count the hour it fills for ESPN/2/U/News) but I don't think it amounts to much.
Having the ability to put MLB/NBA/NHL games on ESPN/2/U/News is significant, though. That's actually really bad for college sports, now that I'm absorbing the news.
If ESPN can fill timeslots with pro sports, it doesn't need college sports as much.
Thank goodness the college broadcasting model has changed to Conf Networks and that the ACC Network is with ESPN and launching in 2019! For all the ACC network haters... time to eat CROW!!!!!
No crow eating until we see what it looks like as far as fan interest. Will it look like the B10 network or the PAC network? I'm guessing something. Good luck.
Yes, the jury is still out on the commercial performance of the ACCN, we just have to wait and see until the numbers roll in.
One thing that would cause me concern if i was an ACC fan: The expectations seem to be sky-high, e.g., the FSU AD saying that ACCN revenues could be $15m per school.
Remember, the main reason the ACC has social peace these days is because Swofford calmed FSU and Clemson down a few years ago by selling them on the idea that an ACCN could satisfy their money concerns vis-a-vis the B1G and SEC.
If it doesn't, the grumbling could begin again, GOR or not.
There are multiple unknown factors where the ACCN is concerned. Footprint won't be one of them. Essentially the SEC and ACC footprints will be shared by both conference networks. That's a major plus for the ACC and a good boost for the SEC too. But only at the out of footprint rate for conference benefiting from the other's footprint.
Here are the variables: SEC earns in footprint a whopping $1.30 per subscription. Out of footprint the SEC still generates .25 cents per subscription and both of these are per month. The SEC's average is an industry high .74 cents for all subscriptions averaged. The Big 10 by comparison averages .47 cents for all subscriptions averaged. The PAC averages .11 cents for all subscriptions averaged.
Many of the larger ACC projections were using the SEC's average rate for estimates. That's not happening. The rates will be set by upfront demand for the ACCN. If the ACC wants to max this number they'll need to push hard this next year to get their members to sign up early. That's what they need to push.
Second, while subscriptions are fine, their viewers will actually have to watch if they want their rates to stay up. Since the ACC presently lags all other P conferences in the % of viewers who actually watch games on Saturday they are going to have to make substantial improvement in this area as well.
If I had to guess I'd say that the ACCN will probably average around 30-35 cents for their rate for both in and out of footprint subscriptions. That will put them substantially ahead of the PAC but still trailing the BTN.
If they do that then 5 to 6 million is possible from the network at the open. However remember that when the network opens ESPN is no longer obligated to pay them 3 million a year for "not" having a network. So in the first year or two the ACCN might only add 2 to 3 million NET to what the ACC earns already. That may be enough to catch them up to the PAC, and perhaps pass them, but will hardly be the magic bullet they are looking for.
However, if they can continue to produce on the field, after the initial viewing % is calculated and if the subscriptions stay relatively high then it is not impractical that someday (possibly within 5 years) they will be making 10 million more per school. That's not SEC or B1G money but may put them solidly into 3rd place and keep them about 10 million behind the SEC and B1G's current projected payouts which will be approaching 55 million by that time. But that is assuming they also get a bump should they add more content via a school or two. If not they could be 15 million behind and pending any additions the SEC or B1G might add, or depending upon how much of a raise the Big 10 gets in2023 with their new contract, or how much the SEC gets for their renewed T1 deal in 2024 they could still wind up 20 million behind those two conferences in media revenue.
So the ACCN I believe will be a money maker for them. But their rate, their viewer participation %, and their initial subscription drive will all play a large part in even getting them to 10 million within 5 years. Fail in any of those areas an it might be quite a different story. And even then they have no control over the B1G's or SEC's new contracts and it's along time to 2036.