(04-13-2018 03:51 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 12:56 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 12:45 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 08:59 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 07:35 AM)Psuhockey Wrote:  The conference network model is not dying, just changing its revenue stream. Streaming is essentially killing bundling. So the BTN will have to go direct to consumer at a larger price to make up for the lost of cable money bundling from people who don’t want their product. It will eventually happen to all conference networks and essentially kill of espn at some point down the line. Espn is just a middle man who’s only value is content from other entities. Once streaming takes over, conferences will just rehold games and go directly to the consumer killing espns value.

What this will eventually do is cause more realignment not less. Conference networks will have to add bigger brands and more alumni to make them profitable and won’t be able to live off of free cable money anymore.

I hope you are right. I’m rooting strongly for espn to die an agonizing death.

I think you will be disappointed.

Go look at what people in the UK pay for ala carte sports and that's basically just local soccer with little to watch in the summer.

ESPN holds the rights to most of what Americans want to watch and now they are adding regional rights.

Suspect ESPN is going to be fine.

You are probably right but I'm still rooting for their demise.
I won't forgive ESPN for what they did to my school in 1996 by colluding and creating the BCS/Cartel etc. That destroyed ECU's momentum and they've been actively fighting against us with their false narrative for 20 years. So I'm fighting against them.

Without derailing the topic, yes, ESPN might be guilty of the things you mentioned but the reason East Carolina did not make the cut in the BCS is due to geography. If ECU was in Atlanta, Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, Baltimore, even in Norfolk, the Big East would’ve invited you in the 90s. Just look at how they treated Virginia Tech with FB only membership and the Hokies did not join for all sports until 2001, two years before they announced going to the ACC with Miami (for that reason I never understood the criticism VT got from BE fans for going to the ACC). Heck, just look at Temple. ECU has a rabid fan base, good stadium with a P5 athmosphere, travels well to bowls and has a tradition of beating nearby P5 schools but you’re in the wrong state.

ECU wasn't in the BCS because ECU, despite having those characteristics you describe, had and has little brand value. Nobody but those 40,000 rabid ECU fans cares much about ECU.

(04-13-2018 04:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 07:35 AM)Psuhockey Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  Its been obvious the conference network model, which drove the last round of realignment, is dying. But it seemed likely to peter out slowly. This could indicate it could happen much more quickly than I expected.

2020s may be time to think alliances instead of more expansion.

The conference network model is not dying, just changing its revenue stream. Streaming is essentially killing bundling. So the BTN will have to go direct to consumer at a larger price to make up for the lost of cable money bundling from people who don’t want their product. It will eventually happen to all conference networks and essentially kill of espn at some point down the line. Espn is just a middle man who’s only value is content from other entities. Once streaming takes over, conferences will just rehold games and go directly to the consumer killing espns value.

What this will eventually do is cause more realignment not less. Conference networks will have to add bigger brands and more alumni to make them profitable and won’t be able to live off of free cable money anymore.

Streaming is a death of the model. The reason the model drove realignment was because conferences and ESPN and Fox could get people who never watched the product to pay for it. If its dropped from the standard packages, it kills the massive revenue stream that make Maryland, Rutgers and Missouri logical additions.

Yea, the revenue ESPN is losing isn't anything to do with poor ratings or problems with their content, it's that for two+ decades anyone who wanted to be able to watch Real Housewives and Say Yes to the Dress equivalents, or simply liked cable news or literally any other non-ESPN cable channel, was forced to also buy ESPN for something like $8 a month even though they never ever turned it on. Those people can't really be re-monetized. It doesn't mean ESPN's going to fail or anything (far from it), but it seriously changes the money involved and the way it's made.

(04-13-2018 06:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 04:56 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  This could be a wake up call for the P5 who owns a conference tv networks. The Big 10 will lose out of money which will deflate their tv value in a few years. I wonder how many cable providers refuse to take the ACC network? Could the SEC Network and Longhorn network lose out as well?

The SEC Network has one thing going for it - where it is, people want it, and if people want it, it's not being dropped.

Even if the carriage fee model were to die. There are plenty of people who would pay to stream.

Maybe that's the next move.

Cable and Satellite offering it in SEC territory and "out-of-market" available for a steep streaming price.

(04-13-2018 06:30 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 04:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 07:35 AM)Psuhockey Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  Its been obvious the conference network model, which drove the last round of realignment, is dying. But it seemed likely to peter out slowly. This could indicate it could happen much more quickly than I expected.

2020s may be time to think alliances instead of more expansion.

The conference network model is not dying, just changing its revenue stream. Streaming is essentially killing bundling. So the BTN will have to go direct to consumer at a larger price to make up for the lost of cable money bundling from people who don’t want their product. It will eventually happen to all conference networks and essentially kill of espn at some point down the line. Espn is just a middle man who’s only value is content from other entities. Once streaming takes over, conferences will just rehold games and go directly to the consumer killing espns value.

What this will eventually do is cause more realignment not less. Conference networks will have to add bigger brands and more alumni to make them profitable and won’t be able to live off of free cable money anymore.

Streaming is a death of the model. The reason the model drove realignment was because conferences and ESPN and Fox could get people who never watched the product to pay for it. If its dropped from the standard packages, it kills the massive revenue stream that make Maryland, Rutgers and Missouri logical additions.

Yea, the revenue ESPN is losing isn't anything to do with poor ratings or problems with their content, it's that for two+ decades anyone who wanted to be able to watch Real Housewives and Say Yes to the Dress equivalents, or simply liked cable news or literally any other non-ESPN cable channel, was forced to also buy ESPN for something like $8 a month even though they never ever turned it on. Those people can't really be re-monetized. It doesn't mean ESPN's going to fail or anything (far from it), but it seriously changes the money involved and the way it's made.

And it will change how much people who want to watch ESPN end up paying to get it.

Comcast considers NY “out of market” and will be dropping BTN there. Isn’t this why Rutgers was added? Big Ten diluted its football rivalries and product for this payoff from Rutgers.

What is really interesting is that $30 to $40 million a year is gonna eventually be paid to Rutgers. Talk about a bad deal. The NY market was supposed to pay for that. Now they are officially leeches..... for a crap ton of money.

(04-14-2018 02:15 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Comcast considers NY “out of market” and will be dropping BTN there. Isn’t this why Rutgers was added? Big Ten diluted its football rivalries and product for this payoff from Rutgers.

This

(04-14-2018 02:15 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Comcast considers NY “out of market” and will be dropping BTN there. Isn’t this why Rutgers was added? Big Ten diluted its football rivalries and product for this payoff from Rutgers.

Comcast only has contracts service in what basically is the Hudson River Valley and only about 12 towns in the whole state at that. Wiki the population of those villages to see that they have VERY little presence in the state.

https://www.xfinity.com/locations/new-york

NJ is the 11th most populous state in the union.

(04-13-2018 09:07 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 06:30 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 04:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-13-2018 07:35 AM)Psuhockey Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  Its been obvious the conference network model, which drove the last round of realignment, is dying. But it seemed likely to peter out slowly. This could indicate it could happen much more quickly than I expected.

2020s may be time to think alliances instead of more expansion.

The conference network model is not dying, just changing its revenue stream. Streaming is essentially killing bundling. So the BTN will have to go direct to consumer at a larger price to make up for the lost of cable money bundling from people who don’t want their product. It will eventually happen to all conference networks and essentially kill of espn at some point down the line. Espn is just a middle man who’s only value is content from other entities. Once streaming takes over, conferences will just rehold games and go directly to the consumer killing espns value.

What this will eventually do is cause more realignment not less. Conference networks will have to add bigger brands and more alumni to make them profitable and won’t be able to live off of free cable money anymore.

Streaming is a death of the model. The reason the model drove realignment was because conferences and ESPN and Fox could get people who never watched the product to pay for it. If its dropped from the standard packages, it kills the massive revenue stream that make Maryland, Rutgers and Missouri logical additions.

Yea, the revenue ESPN is losing isn't anything to do with poor ratings or problems with their content, it's that for two+ decades anyone who wanted to be able to watch Real Housewives and Say Yes to the Dress equivalents, or simply liked cable news or literally any other non-ESPN cable channel, was forced to also buy ESPN for something like $8 a month even though they never ever turned it on. Those people can't really be re-monetized. It doesn't mean ESPN's going to fail or anything (far from it), but it seriously changes the money involved and the way it's made.

And it will change how much people who want to watch ESPN end up paying to get it.

If the pay for view model was as good as forced carriage, the colleges would still be doing that for Tier III. For the biggest fans it will cost more, but the conferences and ESPN/Fox get less money.

(04-14-2018 07:56 AM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 02:15 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Comcast considers NY “out of market” and will be dropping BTN there. Isn’t this why Rutgers was added? Big Ten diluted its football rivalries and product for this payoff from Rutgers.

This

Comcast does not provide cable services in NY City, no impact there, or in any other place that Comcast doesn’t do business.

This is most likely a price battle between BTN/Fox and Comcast. They did the same crap with the YES network (home if the NY Yankees). And no one in the area could watch their games for nearly a year, guess what’s back on Comcast now....the YES network...

(04-14-2018 08:39 PM)penguino Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 07:56 AM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 02:15 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Comcast considers NY “out of market” and will be dropping BTN there. Isn’t this why Rutgers was added? Big Ten diluted its football rivalries and product for this payoff from Rutgers.

This

Comcast does not provide cable services in NY City, no impact there, or in any other place that Comcast doesn’t do business.

This is most likely a price battle between BTN/Fox and Comcast. They did the same crap with the YES network (home if the NY Yankees). And no one in the area could watch their games for nearly a year, guess what’s back on Comcast now....the YES network...

This may as you indicate work itself out in future negotiations, but it really isn't restricted to Comcast necessarily.

Until recently I lived and worked in an area above NYC but considered to be part of the NYC metro. I received BTN on one of the channels in the 70s as a Time Warner Cable customer, I assume at whatever the out-of-market rate was, but don't know that for sure.

When Charter bought TWC and merged with it to form Spectrum, that channel in the 70s went away altogether in my area although I still had the BTN on 382 as part of my extended sports package.

None of the above is to make any judgments on Rutgers overall value to the Big Ten since anyone who was unhappy with that decision by Spectrum had/has the option to cancel Spectrum and simply signed up with DirectTV, which no doubt some unknown number probably did.

Instead this example is presented to illustrate that between cord-cutting, changes in how and if a conference network makes it onto the expanded basic tier vs a sports package, the impact of streaming paradigm, etc., has had/ and will continue to have an impact on the conference sports networks which only truly began in earnest with the launch of the BTN a decade ago.

Makes me cautious about how successful the upcoming ACCN in fall 2019 will be.

Cheers,
Neil

(04-14-2018 09:32 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 08:39 PM)penguino Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 07:56 AM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 02:15 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Comcast considers NY “out of market” and will be dropping BTN there. Isn’t this why Rutgers was added? Big Ten diluted its football rivalries and product for this payoff from Rutgers.

This

Comcast does not provide cable services in NY City, no impact there, or in any other place that Comcast doesn’t do business.

This is most likely a price battle between BTN/Fox and Comcast. They did the same crap with the YES network (home if the NY Yankees). And no one in the area could watch their games for nearly a year, guess what’s back on Comcast now....the YES network...

This may as you indicate work itself out in future negotiations, but it really isn't restricted to Comcast necessarily.

Until recently I lived and worked in an area above NYC but considered to be part of the NYC metro. I received BTN on one of the channels in the 70s as a Time Warner Cable customer, I assume at whatever the out-of-market rate was, but don't know that for sure.

When Charter bought TWC and merged with it to form Spectrum, that channel in the 70s went away altogether in my area although I still had the BTN on 382 as part of my extended sports package.

None of the above is to make any judgments on Rutgers overall value to the Big Ten since anyone who was unhappy with that decision by Spectrum had/has the option to cancel Spectrum and simply signed up with DirectTV, which no doubt some unknown number probably did.

Instead this example is presented to illustrate that between cord-cutting, changes in how and if a conference network makes it onto the expanded basic tier vs a sports package, the impact of streaming paradigm, etc., has had/ and will continue to have an impact on the conference sports networks which only truly began in earnest with the launch of the BTN a decade ago.

Makes me cautious about how successful the upcoming ACCN in fall 2019 will be.

Cheers,
Neil

I agree with your position, or lack thereof, Neil. I don't worry too much about the conference networks for one reason. In the end advertisers like compelling live events. Sports perfectly fills this need for the carriers. If conference networks on linear channels become passe the emphasis for most of the money will be on the rights package solely instead of a rights package with joints ventures with varying degree of risk (the conference networks). So if the Big 10, SEC and ACC should find that while their sports are still compelling that their conference network just isn't, then the money they are paid will just be for the rights and joint ventures will go away while the money remains essentially the same. The carriers will then decide how best to monetize the product and the venture of the conference networks will have provided the carriers with campus infrastructure sufficient to produce and deliver that product ever how they see fit. So in the end the schools will still be paid, and the carriers will still find ways to turn a profit.

(04-14-2018 11:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 09:32 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 08:39 PM)penguino Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 07:56 AM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 02:15 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Comcast considers NY “out of market” and will be dropping BTN there. Isn’t this why Rutgers was added? Big Ten diluted its football rivalries and product for this payoff from Rutgers.

This

Comcast does not provide cable services in NY City, no impact there, or in any other place that Comcast doesn’t do business.

This is most likely a price battle between BTN/Fox and Comcast. They did the same crap with the YES network (home if the NY Yankees). And no one in the area could watch their games for nearly a year, guess what’s back on Comcast now....the YES network...

This may as you indicate work itself out in future negotiations, but it really isn't restricted to Comcast necessarily.

Until recently I lived and worked in an area above NYC but considered to be part of the NYC metro. I received BTN on one of the channels in the 70s as a Time Warner Cable customer, I assume at whatever the out-of-market rate was, but don't know that for sure.

When Charter bought TWC and merged with it to form Spectrum, that channel in the 70s went away altogether in my area although I still had the BTN on 382 as part of my extended sports package.

None of the above is to make any judgments on Rutgers overall value to the Big Ten since anyone who was unhappy with that decision by Spectrum had/has the option to cancel Spectrum and simply signed up with DirectTV, which no doubt some unknown number probably did.

Instead this example is presented to illustrate that between cord-cutting, changes in how and if a conference network makes it onto the expanded basic tier vs a sports package, the impact of streaming paradigm, etc., has had/ and will continue to have an impact on the conference sports networks which only truly began in earnest with the launch of the BTN a decade ago.

Makes me cautious about how successful the upcoming ACCN in fall 2019 will be.

Cheers,
Neil

I agree with your position, or lack thereof, Neil. I don't worry too much about the conference networks for one reason. In the end advertisers like compelling live events. Sports perfectly fills this need for the carriers. If conference networks on linear channels become passe the emphasis for most of the money will be on the rights package solely instead of a rights package with joints ventures with varying degree of risk (the conference networks). So if the Big 10, SEC and ACC should find that while their sports are still compelling that their conference network just isn't, then the money they are paid will just be for the rights and joint ventures will go away while the money remains essentially the same. The carriers will then decide how best to monetize the product and the venture of the conference networks will have provided the carriers with campus infrastructure sufficient to produce and deliver that product ever how they see fit. So in the end the schools will still be paid, and the carriers will still find ways to turn a profit.

Excellent analysis. But now I am concerned by the burning quesiton will Syracuse football turn it around prior to the new, new paradigm emerging?

Oh well, sleep is overrated.


Neil

The areas it is being dropped only had the channel in the Sports pack I beleive soon don't see a massive uprising against Comcast here. Border areas like Virginia may get upset, but then again how many VA Comcast subscribers were currently getting BTN?

My guess is Comcast wanted to decrease the price per out of region sub to offset in region increase and Fox said no

(04-15-2018 06:27 AM)solohawks Wrote:  The areas it is being dropped only had the channel in the Sports pack I beleive soon don't see a massive uprising against Comcast here. Border areas like Virginia may get upset, but then again how many VA Comcast subscribers were currently getting BTN?

My guess is Comcast wanted to decrease the price per out of region sub to offset in region increase and Fox said no

I don't agree with this. Perhaps it is that I follow a lot of Big Ten/Big Ten related people on twitter but I've seen a ton of people claiming they are leaving or will leave Comcast when the contract is over. This is driving a bunch of people to PS Vue, YouTube TV and DirecTV/DirectTV Now. Again, this is what they SAY they're going to do. Words are not actions but there is a ComcastCares twitter handle all over the place trying to respond to people being upset with BTN being dropped.

Zack Johnson of the PGA Twitter

(04-14-2018 07:38 AM)otown Wrote:  What is really interesting is that $30 to $40 million a year is gonna eventually be paid to Rutgers. Talk about a bad deal. The NY market was supposed to pay for that. Now they are officially leeches..... for a crap ton of money.

Since everything is seen thru the prism of sports, the one thing that is lost with the addition of Rutgers is that New Jersey is number two for median income for states. Sports are essentially the marketing arm of a university. That’s a lot of wealthy family’s that can afford out of state tuition. Maryland’s number one for median household income.

Every one seems to be aware that the sports bubble is about to burst but so is the higher education bubble. Competition for students who can afford tuition will be as important as national tittles.

(04-15-2018 06:55 AM)TerpsNPhoenix Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 06:27 AM)solohawks Wrote:  The areas it is being dropped only had the channel in the Sports pack I beleive soon don't see a massive uprising against Comcast here. Border areas like Virginia may get upset, but then again how many VA Comcast subscribers were currently getting BTN?

My guess is Comcast wanted to decrease the price per out of region sub to offset in region increase and Fox said no

I don't agree with this. Perhaps it is that I follow a lot of Big Ten/Big Ten related people on twitter but I've seen a ton of people claiming they are leaving or will leave Comcast when the contract is over. This is driving a bunch of people to PS Vue, YouTube TV and DirecTV/DirectTV Now. Again, this is what they SAY they're going to do. Words are not actions but there is a ComcastCares twitter handle all over the place trying to respond to people being upset with BTN being dropped.

Zack Johnson of the PGA Twitter

It's the Russians and their fake news LOL

But seriously I'm sure some are real but for disputes like this social media PR is a key weapon in the battle of narrative.

I'm sure there are angry people in Wyoming going on Twitter complaining but I do wonder how many

(04-15-2018 06:58 AM)Psuhockey Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 07:38 AM)otown Wrote:  What is really interesting is that $30 to $40 million a year is gonna eventually be paid to Rutgers. Talk about a bad deal. The NY market was supposed to pay for that. Now they are officially leeches..... for a crap ton of money.

Since everything is seen thru the prism of sports, the one thing that is lost with the addition of Rutgers is that New Jersey is number two for median income for states. Sports are essentially the marketing arm of a university. That’s a lot of wealthy family’s that can afford out of state tuition. Maryland’s number one for median household income.

Every one seems to be aware that the sports bubble is about to burst but so is the higher education bubble. Competition for students who can afford tuition will be as important as national tittles.

Not when banks and uncle Sam line up around the block to loan anything our little Johnny deems necessary for tuition and living expenses. Doesn't matter what the major it. He can readily get a quarter of a million dollars in debt majoring in basket weaving. Daddy and Mommy's income mean nothing to these schools unless they want donations, outside of that, kids from all income lines will still have access to school money. The Universities know this and they exploit it ridiculously high tuition.

(04-15-2018 07:37 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 06:55 AM)TerpsNPhoenix Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 06:27 AM)solohawks Wrote:  The areas it is being dropped only had the channel in the Sports pack I beleive soon don't see a massive uprising against Comcast here. Border areas like Virginia may get upset, but then again how many VA Comcast subscribers were currently getting BTN?

My guess is Comcast wanted to decrease the price per out of region sub to offset in region increase and Fox said no

I don't agree with this. Perhaps it is that I follow a lot of Big Ten/Big Ten related people on twitter but I've seen a ton of people claiming they are leaving or will leave Comcast when the contract is over. This is driving a bunch of people to PS Vue, YouTube TV and DirecTV/DirectTV Now. Again, this is what they SAY they're going to do. Words are not actions but there is a ComcastCares twitter handle all over the place trying to respond to people being upset with BTN being dropped.

Zack Johnson of the PGA Twitter

It's the Russians and their fake news LOL

But seriously I'm sure some are real but for disputes like this social media PR is a key weapon in the battle of narrative.

I'm sure there are angry people in Wyoming going on Twitter complaining but I do wonder how many

It is absolutely a PR battle. I suspect there is a reason it's happening now rather than right before football season. Now, people may claim to leave Comcast since it's "lacrosse and baseball" season. People probably won't do much right now, which helps Comcast in their negotiations and the perception hurts the Big Ten and BTN. For football season I think it would be a different story.

Also, I know you're joking about random people in Wyoming but we've discussed the migration of people from North to South plenty of times. There are lots of people who want the BTN who aren't in the foot print. Obviously not everyone is a Comcast or even cable subscriber but I think this is a trial and plenty of other cable companies are watching.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

(04-15-2018 07:50 AM)TerpsNPhoenix Wrote:  ...I know you're joking about random people in Wyoming but we've discussed the migration of people from North to South plenty of times. There are lots of people who want the BTN who aren't in the foot print. Obviously not everyone is a Comcast or even cable subscriber but I think this is a trial and plenty of other cable companies are watching.

There are always people out-of-market who follow any sports team(s), but the question is should ALL customers in that area pay for that particular channel? It sounds like the old answer for BTN was "Yes" in New York, DC, Virginia, even Georgia and Florida, but now people are questioning if BTN shouldn't be placed on a sports tier. Still available, just no longer part of the "basic" subscription.