Looking at the standings and the overall conference schedule (who's playing who)...

Our series vs MT is absolutely huge. If we could sweep (an that's a giant IF), we could possibly jump up to 4th in the conference depending on what happens in the other series going on this weekend.

Come on, Owls!!!

(04-12-2018 08:16 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  Looking at the standings and the overall conference schedule (who's playing who)...

Our series vs MT is absolutely huge. If we could sweep (an that's a giant IF), we could possibly jump up to 4th in the conference depending on what happens in the other series going on this weekend.

Come on, Owls!!!

I'll take a road series win. Baby steps.

(04-12-2018 08:18 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:16 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  Looking at the standings and the overall conference schedule (who's playing who)...

Our series vs MT is absolutely huge. If we could sweep (an that's a giant IF), we could possibly jump up to 4th in the conference depending on what happens in the other series going on this weekend.

Come on, Owls!!!

I'll take a road series win. Baby steps.

I tend to agree. However, I'd like to see the baby steps turn in to a sprint soon....

(04-12-2018 08:23 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:18 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:16 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  Looking at the standings and the overall conference schedule (who's playing who)...

Our series vs MT is absolutely huge. If we could sweep (an that's a giant IF), we could possibly jump up to 4th in the conference depending on what happens in the other series going on this weekend.

Come on, Owls!!!

I'll take a road series win. Baby steps.

I tend to agree. However, I'd like to see the baby steps turn in to a sprint soon....

Had we not been so pathetic offensively on Tuesday, I'd have a bit more confidence. This team is simply incapable of ever manufacturing runs, which puts us in a distinct disadvantage in any pitchers duel.

(04-12-2018 08:33 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:23 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:18 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:16 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  Looking at the standings and the overall conference schedule (who's playing who)...

Our series vs MT is absolutely huge. If we could sweep (an that's a giant IF), we could possibly jump up to 4th in the conference depending on what happens in the other series going on this weekend.

Come on, Owls!!!

I'll take a road series win. Baby steps.

I tend to agree. However, I'd like to see the baby steps turn in to a sprint soon....

Had we not been so pathetic offensively on Tuesday, I'd have a bit more confidence. This team is simply incapable of ever manufacturing runs, which puts us in a distinct disadvantage in any pitchers duel.

Well, yes and no...we do struggle in manufacturing runs...but we've also had some explosive games lately (save the UH game).....I see them more as "Jekyll and Hyde" offensively right now....

I really hope Dom can get back in the lineup consistently. The offense looked MUCH more aggressive just having him back in there for those couple games. He's a difference maker.

(04-12-2018 08:42 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:33 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:23 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:18 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 08:16 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  Looking at the standings and the overall conference schedule (who's playing who)...

Our series vs MT is absolutely huge. If we could sweep (an that's a giant IF), we could possibly jump up to 4th in the conference depending on what happens in the other series going on this weekend.

Come on, Owls!!!

I'll take a road series win. Baby steps.

I tend to agree. However, I'd like to see the baby steps turn in to a sprint soon....

Had we not been so pathetic offensively on Tuesday, I'd have a bit more confidence. This team is simply incapable of ever manufacturing runs, which puts us in a distinct disadvantage in any pitchers duel.

Well, yes and no...we do struggle in manufacturing runs...but we've also had some explosive games lately (save the UH game).....I see them more as "Jekyll and Hyde" offensively right now....

I really hope Dom can get back in the lineup consistently. The offense looked MUCH more aggressive just having him back in there for those couple games. He's a difference maker.

I'm not saying we don't score runs as we've had some very nice offensive outputs. However, manufacturing runs require situational hitting and willing to sacrifice your AB to move runners up (not only via bunts, but fundamental baseball of hitting to the left side with a runner on 2B with less than two outs. We refuse to do any of that. Or committing to put the ball in play when we have a runner on 3B with less than two outs. We almost always opt for the big inning instead. That's fine when you have a lead, but not in a tied game or when you're behind by a run or two. As has been consistently the case over the past 5+ years, we simply don't teach-- or enforce-- proper bunting technique and, as a result, our ability to successfully lay down a sac bunt-- which should be upwards of 75+%-- is closer to 33%, and it's only that high because Comeaux deploys proper technique. Though there's no way to prove it, I bet we're amongst the national leaders in runners left on base and in scoring position per game.

I wish Rice was better at sac bunting, but I generally think we do it too much anyway. I just consider it the baseball gods' way of trying to say we shouldn't be bunting so much.

I also think situational hitting is a bit overrated. Of course you want to be aware of the situation and understand that there are circumstances where, as a hitter, you need to prioritize putting the ball in play. This is particularly true against elite pitching or late in the game. But the ultimate goal is almost always to get on base. Purposefully hitting ground balls toward the second baseman isn't really a long-term recipe for success, even if it moves a runner to 3rd. I'm much more concerned about Rice's inability to capitalize when the bases are loaded (often with no outs!) than with our inability to hit a grounder to the right side in some sort of self-sacrificial manner.

Now if the opposing starter is an ace and you are trying to scratch across some runs, that is a different story. But UH's starter last night (Lockhart) came into the game with only 8 IP having allowed 6 hits and 8 BB. I'd take my chances on the bigger inning against someone like that. UH's 2nd pitcher (Villareal) had fared a bit better, with 8 hits and 2 BB in 10 IP. But again, that hardly suggests someone who is so dominant that we need hitters laying down on the tracks to scratch out a single run, especially coming off a weekend like the offense just had. Heading into last night's game, 9 UH pitchers had thrown more innings than either of those guys. Its easy to say in retrospect we should have focused on situational hitting. But if we had a few key hits early in the game and ended up winning 6-1, we would have been talking about how happy we were that the bats were still rolling against an opponent with a deep pitching staff.

Being able to hit a simple sac fly would be progress, never mind sac bunts and grounders.

(04-12-2018 09:43 AM)mrbig Wrote:  I wish Rice was better at sac bunting, but I generally think we do it too much anyway. I just consider it the baseball gods' way of trying to say we shouldn't be bunting so much.

I also think situational hitting is a bit overrated. Of course you want to be aware of the situation and understand that there are circumstances where, as a hitter, you need to prioritize putting the ball in play. This is particularly true against elite pitching or late in the game. But the ultimate goal is almost always to get on base. Purposefully hitting ground balls toward the second baseman isn't really a long-term recipe for success, even if it moves a runner to 3rd. I'm much more concerned about Rice's inability to capitalize when the bases are loaded (often with no outs!) than with our inability to hit a grounder to the right side in some sort of self-sacrificial manner.

Now if the opposing starter is an ace and you are trying to scratch across some runs, that is a different story. But UH's starter last night (Lockhart) came into the game with only 8 IP having allowed 6 hits and 8 BB. I'd take my chances on the bigger inning against someone like that. UH's 2nd pitcher (Villareal) had fared a bit better, with 8 hits and 2 BB in 10 IP. But again, that hardly suggests someone who is so dominant that we need hitters laying down on the tracks to scratch out a single run, especially coming off a weekend like the offense just had. Heading into last night's game, 9 UH pitchers had thrown more innings than either of those guys. Its easy to say in retrospect we should have focused on situational hitting. But if we had a few key hits early in the game and ended up winning 6-1, we would have been talking about how happy we were that the bats were still rolling against an opponent with a deep pitching staff.

Bigs, it's clear you and I have very different philosophies here partly due to the fact that you were primarily a position player and hitter, and I was primarily a pitcher through high school (though I played 3B, as well).

Hitting to the right side with a runner on 2B and less than two outs does NOT mean trying to hit a ground ball. It simply means left-handed hitters change their approach to pull the ball and right-handed hitters change their approach to go the other way with the pitch. It doesn't mean giving up an out. Ditto, with a runner on 3B and less than two outs, you change your approach to increase the probability of putting the ball in play. The number of times we strike out in that situation-- even amongst our best hitters, and many times strikeout looking-- is appalling and inexplicable. In fact, I'd argue that even with two outs and a runner on 3B, the #1 priority should be to simply ensure you put the ball in play, where anything can happen. Our strikeout frequency this year is horrific.

MTSU comes into this series with an overall 18 - 16 record (9-10 home, 5-7 CUSA, 6-9 vs. Top 150, #182 RPI, #156 ISR, #185 SoS), but losers in 4 of their last 5 games. (In comparison, Rice is #133 RPI, #128 ISR, #34 SoS, 9-18 vs. Top 150...but have played just 8 games against sub-RPI 150 teams, while MTSU has played a whopping 19 games against such weak opponents.) They split two midweek games with #67 Tennessee, but that's about their only quality win. And they've yet to play any of the 3 elite teams in CUSA; instead, they've gone only 5-7 vs. WKU (2-1), Charlotte (1-2), ODU (2-1) and Marshall (who swept them on the road last weekend). They still have USM, FAU and LaTech remaining on their schedule, with two of those three series on the road. Here's their schedule and results to date...

http://goblueraiders.com/documents/2018/...h=baseball

MTSU appears to be a team with a quality bullpen, solid offense and defense, but weak starting pitching. They're both scoring and giving up 6.5 runs per game. And remember, those stats are inflated given their very weak Stength of Schedule. This week's midweek is a perfect reflection of their season-- the blew out #260 Belmont at home 9-0, then followed that up with a blowout 2-14 loss on the road to #28 Tennessee Tech.

Offensively, they're hitting .274/.374/.408 as a team, with 28 HRs, 67 doubles/triples, 42-55 SBs and averaging 6.5 runs per game. They're led buy CUSA POY candidate, Aaron Auker (.351/.412/.634, 8 HRs, 14 doubles, 40 RBIs) and speedster/leadoff man, Austin Dennis (.338/.419/.500, 4 HRs, 24 RBIs, 37 runs, 13-15 SBs). The entire lineup is composed of very patient hitters who work the count, which is reflective in both their high free pass (BBs, HBPs) tally of just under 6/game and high strikeout frequency (8.5/game against week competition). Though they have two elite basestealers (28-32 SBs combined), they don't deploy small ball, as they've only collected 5 sac bunts (even less than us, and that's saying something!). Fortunately for us, though MTSU does appear to platoon at a couple positions, only one everyday player is left-handed, which gives us an advantage with our overwhelmingly right-handed pitching staff. Our Canterino-Garcia-Moss should rack up a ton of strikeouts this weekend, but our bullpen MUST throw strikes or we could be in for a walkathon.

On the mound, Sr LHP Jake Wyrick is their only quality, above-average starter (7 starts, 1-2, 33.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, .225 BAA, 12 BBs, 33 Ks), but he's averaging less than 5 innings per start. The other two weekend starters have ERAs below 5.80, though one is yet another southpaw. As noted, their bullpen has been solid and relatively deep. Overall pitching stats are: 5.81 ERA, .284 BAA, 1.42 K:BB ratio, 1.90 WHIP...and that's against a very weak SoS.

Here are the Blue Raider's individual and team stats to date...
http://goblueraiders.com/documents/2018/...h=baseball

How do the balk stats match up?

(04-12-2018 12:27 PM)flash3200 Wrote:  How do the balk stats match up?

Hee hee, MTSU may be the only team we face that actually competes with us in the "gift giving" category...

Rice staff: 35 games, 137 BBs, 34 HBP, 41 WPs, 10 balks
MTSU staff: 34 games, 195 BBs, 47 HBP, 36 WPs, 9 balks

(04-12-2018 09:53 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 09:43 AM)mrbig Wrote:  I wish Rice was better at sac bunting, but I generally think we do it too much anyway. I just consider it the baseball gods' way of trying to say we shouldn't be bunting so much.

I also think situational hitting is a bit overrated. Of course you want to be aware of the situation and understand that there are circumstances where, as a hitter, you need to prioritize putting the ball in play. This is particularly true against elite pitching or late in the game. But the ultimate goal is almost always to get on base. Purposefully hitting ground balls toward the second baseman isn't really a long-term recipe for success, even if it moves a runner to 3rd. I'm much more concerned about Rice's inability to capitalize when the bases are loaded (often with no outs!) than with our inability to hit a grounder to the right side in some sort of self-sacrificial manner.

Now if the opposing starter is an ace and you are trying to scratch across some runs, that is a different story. But UH's starter last night (Lockhart) came into the game with only 8 IP having allowed 6 hits and 8 BB. I'd take my chances on the bigger inning against someone like that. UH's 2nd pitcher (Villareal) had fared a bit better, with 8 hits and 2 BB in 10 IP. But again, that hardly suggests someone who is so dominant that we need hitters laying down on the tracks to scratch out a single run, especially coming off a weekend like the offense just had. Heading into last night's game, 9 UH pitchers had thrown more innings than either of those guys. Its easy to say in retrospect we should have focused on situational hitting. But if we had a few key hits early in the game and ended up winning 6-1, we would have been talking about how happy we were that the bats were still rolling against an opponent with a deep pitching staff.

Bigs, it's clear you and I have very different philosophies here partly due to the fact that you were primarily a position player and hitter, and I was primarily a pitcher through high school (though I played 3B, as well).

Hitting to the right side with a runner on 2B and less than two outs does NOT mean trying to hit a ground ball. It simply means left-handed hitters change their approach to pull the ball and right-handed hitters change their approach to go the other way with the pitch. It doesn't mean giving up an out. Ditto, with a runner on 3B and less than two outs, you change your approach to increase the probability of putting the ball in play. The number of times we strike out in that situation-- even amongst our best hitters, and many times strikeout looking-- is appalling and inexplicable. In fact, I'd argue that even with two outs and a runner on 3B, the #1 priority should be to simply ensure you put the ball in play, where anything can happen. Our strikeout frequency this year is horrific.

Just for fun: runner on second and no outs. I want a ground ball to the left side of the infield or an infield or shallow fly ball. Strikeout will work, too, but I have to make several good to great pitches to get the strikeout and really just one to get a ground ball to the left side or a shallow fly ball. Right-handed batter - I am coming hard inside with sink if I have sink to get the ground ball. Left-handed batter - I am probably trying to get him on his front foot with a change-up and get the fly ball. Again, just for fun, let's say that the scouting report on me is detailed and they know that I will try to do this. Now the hitter has a choice - try to take a pitch designed to induce one type of contact and make a different type of contact or disregard the pitcher's plan and look for a mistake. If he chooses to wait for a mistake then all I have to do as a pitcher is not make that mistake. If he chooses to try to take an inside fastball and hit it to the right side (right-handed hitter) or take a change-up (left-handed hitter) to the right side then the pitcher wins because the contact will be crap - the right-handed batter goes inside out on an inside fastball or the left-handed batter weakly rolls over a change-up. Still for fun, let's say either batter successfully moves the runner to third. So now there is a runner on third with one out. Now, I pitch either a right-handed batter or a left-handed batter to induce a ground ball to the left side. Same approach as before for a right-handed batter. Different for a left-handed batter. According to the Walt school of situational hitting, with a runner on third and one out, I want a deep fly ball or a ground ball to the right side, which are two completely contradictory hitting approaches. If the hitter looks for both simultaneously he is absolute toast. He has to choose one. Let's say he is successful and drives the run in with either a sac fly or a ground out to the right side. Now, one run is in, no one is on base, and there are two outs. Hand a pitcher the baseball with a runner on second and no outs and he will be pleased to give up just one run. If, of course, the one run is at stake at a critical part of the game, then all sorts of things are made available to the pitcher/defense like intentional walks and bringing the infield in.

I think the move the runner to third is a defeatist mindset in general. The mindset should be to drive that guy in with a smash somewhere. If the mindset is move him over to third then just bunt.

Instead of choosing to either look for a mistake or take a pitch designed to get one type of contact and make a different kind of contact I want hitters that say, "He's going to come inside with a fastball to get a ground ball but I'm going to knock the third baseman's head right off his shoulders." Or, "I'm going to sit back on his change-up and put this ball into the gap."

I get, Walt, that you would prefer that each hitter crushes a double, too. I know you aren't advocating for a single, steal, ground ball to second, sac fly approach to scoring runs. I just don't like the mindset your situational hitting approach requires.

(04-12-2018 04:21 PM)Steven Herce Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 09:53 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 09:43 AM)mrbig Wrote:  I wish Rice was better at sac bunting, but I generally think we do it too much anyway. I just consider it the baseball gods' way of trying to say we shouldn't be bunting so much.

I also think situational hitting is a bit overrated. Of course you want to be aware of the situation and understand that there are circumstances where, as a hitter, you need to prioritize putting the ball in play. This is particularly true against elite pitching or late in the game. But the ultimate goal is almost always to get on base. Purposefully hitting ground balls toward the second baseman isn't really a long-term recipe for success, even if it moves a runner to 3rd. I'm much more concerned about Rice's inability to capitalize when the bases are loaded (often with no outs!) than with our inability to hit a grounder to the right side in some sort of self-sacrificial manner.

Now if the opposing starter is an ace and you are trying to scratch across some runs, that is a different story. But UH's starter last night (Lockhart) came into the game with only 8 IP having allowed 6 hits and 8 BB. I'd take my chances on the bigger inning against someone like that. UH's 2nd pitcher (Villareal) had fared a bit better, with 8 hits and 2 BB in 10 IP. But again, that hardly suggests someone who is so dominant that we need hitters laying down on the tracks to scratch out a single run, especially coming off a weekend like the offense just had. Heading into last night's game, 9 UH pitchers had thrown more innings than either of those guys. Its easy to say in retrospect we should have focused on situational hitting. But if we had a few key hits early in the game and ended up winning 6-1, we would have been talking about how happy we were that the bats were still rolling against an opponent with a deep pitching staff.

Bigs, it's clear you and I have very different philosophies here partly due to the fact that you were primarily a position player and hitter, and I was primarily a pitcher through high school (though I played 3B, as well).

Hitting to the right side with a runner on 2B and less than two outs does NOT mean trying to hit a ground ball. It simply means left-handed hitters change their approach to pull the ball and right-handed hitters change their approach to go the other way with the pitch. It doesn't mean giving up an out. Ditto, with a runner on 3B and less than two outs, you change your approach to increase the probability of putting the ball in play. The number of times we strike out in that situation-- even amongst our best hitters, and many times strikeout looking-- is appalling and inexplicable. In fact, I'd argue that even with two outs and a runner on 3B, the #1 priority should be to simply ensure you put the ball in play, where anything can happen. Our strikeout frequency this year is horrific.

Just for fun: runner on second and no outs. I want a ground ball to the left side of the infield or an infield or shallow fly ball. Strikeout will work, too, but I have to make several good to great pitches to get the strikeout and really just one to get a ground ball to the left side or a shallow fly ball. Right-handed batter - I am coming hard inside with sink if I have sink to get the ground ball. Left-handed batter - I am probably trying to get him on his front foot with a change-up and get the fly ball. Again, just for fun, let's say that the scouting report on me is detailed and they know that I will try to do this. Now the hitter has a choice - try to take a pitch designed to induce one type of contact and make a different type of contact or disregard the pitcher's plan and look for a mistake. If he chooses to wait for a mistake then all I have to do as a pitcher is not make that mistake. If he chooses to try to take an inside fastball and hit it to the right side (right-handed hitter) or take a change-up (left-handed hitter) to the right side then the pitcher wins because the contact will be crap - the right-handed batter goes inside out on an inside fastball or the left-handed batter weakly rolls over a change-up. Still for fun, let's say either batter successfully moves the runner to third. So now there is a runner on third with one out. Now, I pitch either a right-handed batter or a left-handed batter to induce a ground ball to the left side. Same approach as before for a right-handed batter. Different for a left-handed batter. According to the Walt school of situational hitting, with a runner on third and one out, I want a deep fly ball or a ground ball to the right side, which are two completely contradictory hitting approaches. If the hitter looks for both simultaneously he is absolute toast. He has to choose one. Let's say he is successful and drives the run in with either a sac fly or a ground out to the right side. Now, one run is in, no one is on base, and there are two outs. Hand a pitcher the baseball with a runner on second and no outs and he will be pleased to give up just one run. If, of course, the one run is at stake at a critical part of the game, then all sorts of things are made available to the pitcher/defense like intentional walks and bringing the infield in.

I think the move the runner to third is a defeatist mindset in general. The mindset should be to drive that guy in with a smash somewhere. If the mindset is move him over to third then just bunt.

Instead of choosing to either look for a mistake or take a pitch designed to get one type of contact and make a different kind of contact I want hitters that say, "He's going to come inside with a fastball to get a ground ball but I'm going to knock the third baseman's head right off his shoulders." Or, "I'm going to sit back on his change-up and put this ball into the gap."

I get, Walt, that you would prefer that each hitter crushes a double, too. I know you aren't advocating for a single, steal, ground ball to second, sac fly approach to scoring runs. I just don't like the mindset your situational hitting approach requires.

I get all that, Steven. What frustrates me the most is in those situations with guys in scoring position, especially with less than two outs, we are way too frequently striking out, and frequently, taking called third strikes. I just don't get that approach. The odds say get up there and put the ball in play. Period.

(04-12-2018 04:21 PM)Steven Herce Wrote:  Just for fun: runner on second and no outs.

How about runner on third with one or no outs? Lots of them are getting stranded too.

The weather forecast for Saturday is looking pretty poor. And Sunday is going to be downright cold (and perhaps rainy at the start of the day). They may need to play 2 on Friday, or at the very least, move up Saturday's game to an earlier start. But getting in 3 games this weekend might be hard.

(04-12-2018 06:55 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  The weather forecast for Saturday is looking pretty poor. And Sunday is going to be downright cold (and perhaps rainy at the start of the day). They may need to play 2 on Friday, or at the very least, move up Saturday's game to an earlier start. But getting in 3 games this weekend might be hard.

Good call...

Quote:MT Baseball
@MT_Baseball
2h2 hours ago
More
Saturday's game vs. Rice has been moved to Friday due to impending weather. The #BlueRaiders will play a double header tomorrow starting at 3 PM.

I wonder what moneyball stats say about sac bunting scenarios. In the majors, it seems limited to guys sitting beneath the mendoza line (pitchers and mendozas). When you automatically go to the sac bunt to pretty much anyone in your lineup, you take away the chances of a big inning; sac bunting with no outs is just setting yourself up to only score 1 run.

(04-12-2018 07:21 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(04-12-2018 06:55 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  The weather forecast for Saturday is looking pretty poor. And Sunday is going to be downright cold (and perhaps rainy at the start of the day). They may need to play 2 on Friday, or at the very least, move up Saturday's game to an earlier start. But getting in 3 games this weekend might be hard.

Good call...

Quote:MT Baseball
@MT_Baseball
2h2 hours ago
More
Saturday's game vs. Rice has been moved to Friday due to impending weather. The #BlueRaiders will play a double header tomorrow starting at 3 PM.

Also

Quote:April 13 (Fri.) 3 pm; Rice at Middle Tennessee (Game 1 of DH)

April 13 (Fri.) estimated 6:30 pm; Rice at Middle Tennessee (Game 2 of DH)

April 14 (Sat.) no game

April 15 (Sun.) 1 pm Rice at Middle Tennessee

http://www.riceowls.com/sports/m-basebl/...18aab.html


I'm not sure I've ever seen a case where an advance decision was made to have an off day in the middle of a three-game series.