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[split] Mike Bloomgren's 2nd Rice recruiting class
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #221
RE: [split] Mike Bloomgren's 2nd Rice recruiting class
Going so far with four. The power indices are way to immature presently to be of any use. They seem to start making better track in mid-August when the summer FB programs kick off and the 'writers/analysts get into the real groove.

Just eyeballing it in an earlier post I think I said 3 or 4.

Should lose: Houston, Wake Forest, La tech, LSU

Have to really work to win: SoMiss, UAB, North Texas (call 1 of these an 'everything crumbled our way' win)

Tossup: Hawaii, UTSA, FIU, Old Dominion (we either win 0 of these, or 3 of them, their PI is so close together that we are either completely overmatched, or are superior to the group) (call the expected value of 1 as an easy exit here)

Should win: PV, UTEP

I put the magic number as 4. On a good turn of events 6.

I think the efficacy of Bloomgren will show in the how we do against the group of (Hawaii, UTSA, FIU, ODU). If he can win 2 of these 4 this year, I will be really pleased. If he wins 1, pleased, but not as much. Each shows real improvement. If he doesnt win against any of these 4 this year, that will be a disappointment. But, I do realize that his cupboard is not overloaded with goodies from Santa Bailiff and the 12 elves.

The hope for me future-wise is that we rise, not this year, but next, where we dominate that group or class of team, and split the next higher group. At that point, within a CUSA playing group, that will be a bowl game possible scenario. If we can get to 'competing' at the current (SoMiss, UAB, North Texas) level, that translates to 6 or 7 wins a season.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2018 12:40 AM by tanqtonic.)
07-14-2018 12:39 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #222
RE: [split] Mike Bloomgren's 2nd Rice recruiting class
(07-14-2018 12:39 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Going so far with four. The power indices are way to immature presently to be of any use. They seem to start making better track in mid-August when the summer FB programs kick off and the 'writers/analysts get into the real groove.

Just eyeballing it in an earlier post I think I said 3 or 4.

Should lose: Houston, Wake Forest, La tech, LSU

Have to really work to win: SoMiss, UAB, North Texas (call 1 of these an 'everything crumbled our way' win)

Tossup: Hawaii, UTSA, FIU, Old Dominion (we either win 0 of these, or 3 of them, their PI is so close together that we are either completely overmatched, or are superior to the group) (call the expected value of 1 as an easy exit here)

Should win: PV, UTEP

I put the magic number as 4. On a good turn of events 6.

I think the efficacy of Bloomgren will show in the how we do against the group of (Hawaii, UTSA, FIU, ODU). If he can win 2 of these 4 this year, I will be really pleased. If he wins 1, pleased, but not as much. Each shows real improvement. If he doesnt win against any of these 4 this year, that will be a disappointment. But, I do realize that his cupboard is not overloaded with goodies from Santa Bailiff and the 12 elves.

The hope for me future-wise is that we rise, not this year, but next, where we dominate that group or class of team, and split the next higher group. At that point, within a CUSA playing group, that will be a bowl game possible scenario. If we can get to 'competing' at the current (SoMiss, UAB, North Texas) level, that translates to 6 or 7 wins a season.

four is not out of the question. More is not out of the question. But what I see as likely is PV, UTEP, and a win to be named later, with a range of +/- 3. I am just not as ready as some to ascribe wins to a beter attitude, etc. I hope to be proven wrong in my pessimism.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2018 12:19 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
07-14-2018 12:18 PM
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