(04-06-2018 04:59 PM)eco challenged Wrote:  Tulsa lost a lot of close games last year, if they find a reliable QB, they can do some damage. One year removed from 10-3.

If the O-line is bad you may want to say goodbye to your reliable QB

I went to the Spring game today. Of course the biggest emphasis is QB. Skipper looked like he can be a good game manager. Not many mistakes, but no big plays (although a WR dropped a deep TD pass in the endzone that hit his hands). Boomer actually had the best stats. President still healing. Zach Smith will probably be the man next year.

Runni my backs were very good. O line looked decent. WR's were ok.

Also, the TE's looked good. They were using them for passing more than usual which I really like.

The defense seemed improved overall. DB's had a couple picks ( lacking in recent years) . We're still missing 3 starters back there too. Didn't give up any real big plays. The 1D shutdown the 2O for most of the day.

I was optimistic in the poll and have us at 8-4. But anywhere 6-6 to 8-4 is what I would expect.

If you can't beat UCONN, you ain't bowling. Not sure why that's so hard to understand...

I think 4 wins is their ceiling.

100 to 7

(04-07-2018 02:16 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  If you can't beat UCONN, you ain't bowling. Not sure why that's so hard to understand...

We're gonna beat Uconn, silly!

(04-07-2018 09:22 AM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  

(04-07-2018 08:53 AM)STL_Wave Wrote:  if they dont go bowling is Montgomery on the hot seat?

It would be fairly warm. Not quite hot. At least that's my opinion.

Depends on how the year goes. He was brought in for his offense capabilities, in particular the QB as a star type offense and recruiting ties to Texas. If we have another losing season and a bad offense, especially if QB play is sub par he will be in trouble.

(04-07-2018 02:16 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  If you can't beat UCONN, you ain't bowling. Not sure why that's so hard to understand...

Shhh, shhhh, I'm back my one and bro-nly, no need to talk nonsense we'll beat the Huskies like an Iditrod sled driver. . . You've got Hurley, basketball will be good again the world will go back to normal.

I will 2nd Nevada's 5 to 7 wins.

I predicted 6-6, winning every home game & losing every road game. So, I’m sure THAT won’t happen!

We should go from horrible to just below average on defense. Our offensive improvement will be heavily dependent on improved QB play. I expect Skipper will start & he will be improved. I just don’t know if he will improve enough to make us a bowl team.

(04-06-2018 06:10 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  Tulsa lost to UCONN last year. They have a lot of work to do.

Didn't know that I had them beating UCONN. Guess they are dropping from three wins to two.

lol at the 6 people who voted us to be winless.

The presentation of the polling on here is weird. Based on the percentages (showing % of total votes rather than % per game), it looks like we're all voting to determine the 1 game that Tulsa will win this year. i.e. it looks like 20% think that the 1 win will be Central Arkansas.

...remains to be seen whether that presentation is appropriate.

(04-09-2018 08:41 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  The presentation of the polling on here is weird. Based on the percentages (showing % of total votes rather than % per game), it looks like we're all voting to determine the 1 game that Tulsa will win this year. i.e. it looks like 20% think that the 1 win will be Central Arkansas.

...remains to be seen whether that presentation is appropriate.

I think I have a good system to figure out exactly how to gauge the voters reaction.

In excel, I'm counting each and every unique user that votes in the poll, and then using that number versus how many votes a team got.

For example, if 100 people vote in the poll, and 95 of them vote to beat Central Arkansas, then obviously Tulsa is expected to win by 95% of all voters.

The winless option serves to increase the number of people voting in the poll, without adding to a teams percentage to win, effectively lowering chances across the board (as expected with a winless season).

I posted a quick summary so far in a previous post and as of yet there are 3 sure wins, 7 sure losses, and 2 toss up games where voters are nearly split. i.e. 5-7 at best, 3-9 at worst.

Interesting that voters are judging SMU and Tulane to be equally challenging. Smu with a year 1 coach and Tulane with Fritz going into year 3. And both teams were 6-6 last regular season...

(04-09-2018 12:16 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  Interesting that voters are judging SMU and Tulane to be equally challenging. Smu with a year 1 coach and Tulane with Fritz going into year 3. And both teams were 6-6 last regular season...

I think Tulane is going bowling this year. 3-1 OOC is very doable, managing 3 more wins in Conference isn't impossible or even unlikely. Go 2-2 against Houston, Memphis, Navy, USF and you guys could be 2nd in the division.

SMU should be challenging again this year. Dykes has beefed up Oline and Dline with Jucos. 3rd year starting QB with good stats. Good stable of RBs. Now to find another couple of WRs to compliment returning Proche, we might have something. Of course we need to learn how to beat Navy and Memphis, both at home this year.
Tulane is definitely on an upward trajectory. But AAC needs to win those tough OOC games across the board to make progress.

Results so far!

• Central Arkansas - 63 votes, 91% confidence, W
• Texas - 3 votes, 4% confidence, L
• Arkansas State - 47 votes, 68% confidence, W
• Temple - 24 votes, 35% confidence, L
• Houston - 4 votes, 6% confidence, L
• USF - 17 votes, 25% confidence, L
• Arkansas - 9 votes, 13% confidence, L
• Tulane - 38 votes, 55% confidence, Tossup
• UConn - 52 votes, 75% confidence, W
• Memphis - 4 votes, 6% confidence, L
• Navy - 7 votes, 10% confidence, L
• SMU - 35 votes, 50% confidence, Tossup
• 9% voted Tulsa to go winless.
• 5-7 Best case scenario
• 3-9 Worst case scenario
  

(04-09-2018 08:48 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  Results so far!

• Central Arkansas - 63 votes, 91% confidence, W
• Texas - 3 votes, 4% confidence, L
• Arkansas State - 47 votes, 68% confidence, W
• Temple - 24 votes, 35% confidence, L
• Houston - 4 votes, 6% confidence, L
• USF - 17 votes, 25% confidence, L
• Arkansas - 9 votes, 13% confidence, L
• Tulane - 38 votes, 55% confidence, Tossup
• UConn - 52 votes, 75% confidence, W
• Memphis - 4 votes, 6% confidence, L
• Navy - 7 votes, 10% confidence, L
• SMU - 35 votes, 50% confidence, Tossup
• 9% voted Tulsa to go winless.
• 5-7 Best case scenario
• 3-9 Worst case scenario
  

I think this is how ESPN comes up with their FPI. The system is fine. But the data input is flawed.

(04-09-2018 01:15 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(04-09-2018 12:16 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  Interesting that voters are judging SMU and Tulane to be equally challenging. Smu with a year 1 coach and Tulane with Fritz going into year 3. And both teams were 6-6 last regular season...

I think Tulane is going bowling this year. 3-1 OOC is very doable, managing 3 more wins in Conference isn't impossible or even unlikely. Go 2-2 against Houston, Memphis, Navy, USF and you guys could be 2nd in the division.

Tulane is quietly building a program