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ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
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Rube Dali Online
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Post: #21
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
Sorry if this derails this thread a little, but I can tell you that anyone who thinks that NBC will get the AAC deal is delusional. Just so you know.
04-05-2018 12:10 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #22
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 12:10 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  Sorry if this derails this thread a little, but I can tell you that anyone who thinks that NBC will get the AAC deal is delusional. Just so you know.

Depends on how you define "gets". I can easily see NBC ending up with a 25 game package--most of which would be on NBC-Sports with 3-6 games on NBC-Broadcast. I dont see them buying the entire AAC package in the same manner ESPN currently enjoys.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 12:44 PM by Attackcoog.)
04-05-2018 12:44 PM
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Post: #23
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
I'll be honest...knowing NBCSN had a part of the Ivy, only to lose it, tells me these guys don't have the capacity or initiative to sew up the AAC.

You have so many programs centered in the northeast, which is the heart of NBC and Comcast, with that network already spotty with content...and they let the Ivy get away?

Ivy sports as a whole is like golf. It's not about how many are watching, but who is watching. And that "who" is very wealthy. The advertising dollar can go so much further than just any non-FBS conference. With ESPN so stretched, and it is, I just don't get what it takes to make NBCSN play.

So, I guess I can kiss Penn football goodbye. Won't be seeing that on CSN anymore.

NBCSN needs to man up and take an entire conference under their wing, and they'll see how it goes. I get that there were some bad years for ND football...it's just ONE program, though. With this entire conference, you know you're good for some great matchup's from October to season's end. And the basketball is going to deliver, too. I just don't see it...something's not all there in NBC land.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 02:43 PM by The Cutter of Bish.)
04-05-2018 01:13 PM
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Post: #24
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 01:13 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'll be honest...knowing NBCSN had a part of the Ivy, only to lose it, tells me these guys don't have the capacity or initiative to sew up the AAC.

You have so many programs centered in the northeast, which is the heart of NBC and Comcast, with that network already spotty with content...and they let the Ivy get away?

Ivy sports is like golf. It's not about how many are watching, but who is watching. And that "who," is very wealthy. The advertising dollar can go so much further than just any non-FBS conference. With ESPN so stretched, and it is, I just don't get what it takes to make NBCSN play.

So, I guess I can kiss Penn football goodbye. Won't be seeing that on CSN anymore.

NBCSN needs to man up and take an entire conference under their wing, and they'll see how it goes. I get that there were some bad years for ND football...it's just ONE program, though. With this entire conference, you know you're good for some great matchup's from October to season's end. And the basketball is going to deliver, too. I just don't see it...something's not all there in NBC land.

Hard to say. Contract length was probably an issue. Consider the situation. If ESPN is offering the Ivy League a 10 year deal---then a matching deal simply isnt viable for NBC if they have their eyes on those same Saturday slots going to the AAC in a couple of years.

The Ivy League, Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA are now off the board. The MW is looking at going digital with start times that work for them. If NBC wants some FBS football to pair with Notre Dame is going to have to be the AAC. Given that the AAC is the only G5 with a proven track record for having 10 to 20 games a year with a million plus viewers---they were really NBC's only option anyway if NBC is considering placing a few of the games on NBC OTA.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 02:05 PM by Attackcoog.)
04-05-2018 02:03 PM
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Post: #25
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 01:13 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'll be honest...knowing NBCSN had a part of the Ivy, only to lose it, tells me these guys don't have the capacity or initiative to sew up the AAC.

You have so many programs centered in the northeast, which is the heart of NBC and Comcast, with that network already spotty with content...and they let the Ivy get away?

Ivy sports is like golf. It's not about how many are watching, but who is watching. And that "who," is very wealthy. The advertising dollar can go so much further than just any non-FBS conference. With ESPN so stretched, and it is, I just don't get what it takes to make NBCSN play.

So, I guess I can kiss Penn football goodbye. Won't be seeing that on CSN anymore.

NBCSN needs to man up and take an entire conference under their wing, and they'll see how it goes. I get that there were some bad years for ND football...it's just ONE program, though. With this entire conference, you know you're good for some great matchup's from October to season's end. And the basketball is going to deliver, too. I just don't see it...something's not all there in NBC land.

Hard to say. Contract length was probably an issue. Consider the situation. If ESPN is offering the Ivy League a 10 year deal---then a matching deal simply isnt viable for NBC if they have their eyes on those same Saturday slots going to the AAC in a couple of years.

The Ivy League, Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA are now off the board. The MW is looking at going digital with start times that work for them. If NBC wants some FBS football to pair with Notre Dame is going to have to be the AAC. Given that the AAC is the only G5 with a proven track record for having 10 to 20 games a year with a million plus viewers---they were really NBC's only option anyway if NBC is considering placing a few of the games on NBC OTA.

NBC got burned last time when trying to contract with the AAC in 2013, when the AAC went with ESPN's "matching" deal. Does the current ESPN deal have a 'match clause'? If so, or even if not, NBC might be gun-shy about dealing with the AAC again.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 02:59 PM by quo vadis.)
04-05-2018 02:59 PM
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Post: #26
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 02:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 01:13 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'll be honest...knowing NBCSN had a part of the Ivy, only to lose it, tells me these guys don't have the capacity or initiative to sew up the AAC.

You have so many programs centered in the northeast, which is the heart of NBC and Comcast, with that network already spotty with content...and they let the Ivy get away?

Ivy sports is like golf. It's not about how many are watching, but who is watching. And that "who," is very wealthy. The advertising dollar can go so much further than just any non-FBS conference. With ESPN so stretched, and it is, I just don't get what it takes to make NBCSN play.

So, I guess I can kiss Penn football goodbye. Won't be seeing that on CSN anymore.

NBCSN needs to man up and take an entire conference under their wing, and they'll see how it goes. I get that there were some bad years for ND football...it's just ONE program, though. With this entire conference, you know you're good for some great matchup's from October to season's end. And the basketball is going to deliver, too. I just don't see it...something's not all there in NBC land.

Hard to say. Contract length was probably an issue. Consider the situation. If ESPN is offering the Ivy League a 10 year deal---then a matching deal simply isnt viable for NBC if they have their eyes on those same Saturday slots going to the AAC in a couple of years.

The Ivy League, Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA are now off the board. The MW is looking at going digital with start times that work for them. If NBC wants some FBS football to pair with Notre Dame is going to have to be the AAC. Given that the AAC is the only G5 with a proven track record for having 10 to 20 games a year with a million plus viewers---they were really NBC's only option anyway if NBC is considering placing a few of the games on NBC OTA.

NBC got burned last time when trying to contract with the AAC in 2013, when the AAC went with ESPN's "matching" deal. Does the current ESPN deal have a 'match clause'? If so, or even if not, NBC might be gun-shy about dealing with the AAC again.

Whether or not ESPN holds a first refusal is really the big question and if the answer is yes that will limit interest.

The way I see it.
Fox isn't likely to be much of a bidder because they shedding the RSN's and haven't shown any inclination to do much of anything with FS2. They have about what they can handle in Saturday telecasts.

CBSSN has a good inventory of MWC, MAC, and CUSA and CBS hasn't pursued anything other than retaining SEC in the afternoon.

That leaves NBC and they are historically bargain hunters. The price AAC fans consider to be undervalued with ESPN, was a price set by NBC and ESPN got it via first refusal.

I think if AAC makes more money it will be because ESPN has two interests. One cut off competitors from anything of value that can be had at a decent price. Two make ESPN+ work and with the change at CEO at ESPN who knows how serious ESPN is about ESPN+ now?
04-05-2018 03:39 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #27
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 02:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 01:13 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'll be honest...knowing NBCSN had a part of the Ivy, only to lose it, tells me these guys don't have the capacity or initiative to sew up the AAC.

You have so many programs centered in the northeast, which is the heart of NBC and Comcast, with that network already spotty with content...and they let the Ivy get away?

Ivy sports is like golf. It's not about how many are watching, but who is watching. And that "who," is very wealthy. The advertising dollar can go so much further than just any non-FBS conference. With ESPN so stretched, and it is, I just don't get what it takes to make NBCSN play.

So, I guess I can kiss Penn football goodbye. Won't be seeing that on CSN anymore.

NBCSN needs to man up and take an entire conference under their wing, and they'll see how it goes. I get that there were some bad years for ND football...it's just ONE program, though. With this entire conference, you know you're good for some great matchup's from October to season's end. And the basketball is going to deliver, too. I just don't see it...something's not all there in NBC land.

Hard to say. Contract length was probably an issue. Consider the situation. If ESPN is offering the Ivy League a 10 year deal---then a matching deal simply isnt viable for NBC if they have their eyes on those same Saturday slots going to the AAC in a couple of years.

The Ivy League, Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA are now off the board. The MW is looking at going digital with start times that work for them. If NBC wants some FBS football to pair with Notre Dame is going to have to be the AAC. Given that the AAC is the only G5 with a proven track record for having 10 to 20 games a year with a million plus viewers---they were really NBC's only option anyway if NBC is considering placing a few of the games on NBC OTA.

NBC got burned last time when trying to contract with the AAC in 2013, when the AAC went with ESPN's "matching" deal. Does the current ESPN deal have a 'match clause'? If so, or even if not, NBC might be gun-shy about dealing with the AAC again.
NBC got burned because they low bid the conference thinking that ESPN wouldnt (or couldn't) match the exposure. They will lose again if they use the same strategy because this time around, given the AAC ratings track record, there will be plenty bidding at those low levels. Same goes for ESPN. Doesnt mean there will be a huge bidding war that results in a HUGE contract for the AAC---but it does mean the low bid strategy wont work this time around.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 03:42 PM by Attackcoog.)
04-05-2018 03:41 PM
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Post: #28
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 03:39 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 01:13 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'll be honest...knowing NBCSN had a part of the Ivy, only to lose it, tells me these guys don't have the capacity or initiative to sew up the AAC.

You have so many programs centered in the northeast, which is the heart of NBC and Comcast, with that network already spotty with content...and they let the Ivy get away?

Ivy sports is like golf. It's not about how many are watching, but who is watching. And that "who," is very wealthy. The advertising dollar can go so much further than just any non-FBS conference. With ESPN so stretched, and it is, I just don't get what it takes to make NBCSN play.

So, I guess I can kiss Penn football goodbye. Won't be seeing that on CSN anymore.

NBCSN needs to man up and take an entire conference under their wing, and they'll see how it goes. I get that there were some bad years for ND football...it's just ONE program, though. With this entire conference, you know you're good for some great matchup's from October to season's end. And the basketball is going to deliver, too. I just don't see it...something's not all there in NBC land.

Hard to say. Contract length was probably an issue. Consider the situation. If ESPN is offering the Ivy League a 10 year deal---then a matching deal simply isnt viable for NBC if they have their eyes on those same Saturday slots going to the AAC in a couple of years.

The Ivy League, Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA are now off the board. The MW is looking at going digital with start times that work for them. If NBC wants some FBS football to pair with Notre Dame is going to have to be the AAC. Given that the AAC is the only G5 with a proven track record for having 10 to 20 games a year with a million plus viewers---they were really NBC's only option anyway if NBC is considering placing a few of the games on NBC OTA.

NBC got burned last time when trying to contract with the AAC in 2013, when the AAC went with ESPN's "matching" deal. Does the current ESPN deal have a 'match clause'? If so, or even if not, NBC might be gun-shy about dealing with the AAC again.

Whether or not ESPN holds a first refusal is really the big question and if the answer is yes that will limit interest.

The way I see it.
Fox isn't likely to be much of a bidder because they shedding the RSN's and haven't shown any inclination to do much of anything with FS2. They have about what they can handle in Saturday telecasts.

CBSSN has a good inventory of MWC, MAC, and CUSA and CBS hasn't pursued anything other than retaining SEC in the afternoon.

That leaves NBC and they are historically bargain hunters. The price AAC fans consider to be undervalued with ESPN, was a price set by NBC and ESPN got it via first refusal.

I think if AAC makes more money it will be because ESPN has two interests. One cut off competitors from anything of value that can be had at a decent price. Two make ESPN+ work and with the change at CEO at ESPN who knows how serious ESPN is about ESPN+ now?

I pretty much agree with most of wht you said here. I dont see Fox as a likely bidder. Also agree NBC typically bargain hunts.

Here is where I disagree. The value in early 2013 was a guess because the AAC was a complete unknown. The ratings have vastly outstripped those expectations and the conference is now considered to be a tremendous bargain.

So, does NBC see 50-70% of P5 ratings for 20-30% of the price as a bargain or not? At 25% of P5 pay (somewhere between 20-30 million a team) the AAC gets somewhere between 5 and 7.5 million a team---which is right about where I have a feeling the next AAC deal will end up.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 03:51 PM by Attackcoog.)
04-05-2018 03:48 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #29
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hard to say. Contract length was probably an issue. Consider the situation. If ESPN is offering the Ivy League a 10 year deal---then a matching deal simply isnt viable for NBC if they have their eyes on those same Saturday slots going to the AAC in a couple of years.

The Ivy League, Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA are now off the board. The MW is looking at going digital with start times that work for them. If NBC wants some FBS football to pair with Notre Dame is going to have to be the AAC. Given that the AAC is the only G5 with a proven track record for having 10 to 20 games a year with a million plus viewers---they were really NBC's only option anyway if NBC is considering placing a few of the games on NBC OTA.

They weren't clogging CSN or NBCSN when they did have a part of the Ivy contract.

CSN (Philly) often just filled its Saturdays with infomercials and other filler. It's really a waste rather than an extension of NBCSN, which it would, on occasion, fill in for if there was a local CAAF or Ivy game to air. Good for Phillies and Flyers, terrible for the rest of the programming (other than its weeknight sports show).

We assume NBCSN/Comcast has some sort of plan. I think we're giving them too much credit. I don't think Comcast knows how to play with sports programming.
04-05-2018 03:50 PM
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Post: #30
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 03:39 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think if AAC makes more money it will be because ESPN has two interests. One cut off competitors from anything of value that can be had at a decent price. Two make ESPN+ work and with the change at CEO at ESPN who knows how serious ESPN is about ESPN+ now?

ESPN + is a big wild card here. The Ivy League is an early litmus test of how college athletics fans respond to it. Could be a big boon or a bust.

My inkling is that ESPN is going to want to put as much content as it can online and streaming, and the AAC, being status conscious, is going to resist that.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 03:58 PM by quo vadis.)
04-05-2018 03:57 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #31
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 03:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 01:13 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'll be honest...knowing NBCSN had a part of the Ivy, only to lose it, tells me these guys don't have the capacity or initiative to sew up the AAC.

You have so many programs centered in the northeast, which is the heart of NBC and Comcast, with that network already spotty with content...and they let the Ivy get away?

Ivy sports is like golf. It's not about how many are watching, but who is watching. And that "who," is very wealthy. The advertising dollar can go so much further than just any non-FBS conference. With ESPN so stretched, and it is, I just don't get what it takes to make NBCSN play.

So, I guess I can kiss Penn football goodbye. Won't be seeing that on CSN anymore.

NBCSN needs to man up and take an entire conference under their wing, and they'll see how it goes. I get that there were some bad years for ND football...it's just ONE program, though. With this entire conference, you know you're good for some great matchup's from October to season's end. And the basketball is going to deliver, too. I just don't see it...something's not all there in NBC land.

Hard to say. Contract length was probably an issue. Consider the situation. If ESPN is offering the Ivy League a 10 year deal---then a matching deal simply isnt viable for NBC if they have their eyes on those same Saturday slots going to the AAC in a couple of years.

The Ivy League, Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA are now off the board. The MW is looking at going digital with start times that work for them. If NBC wants some FBS football to pair with Notre Dame is going to have to be the AAC. Given that the AAC is the only G5 with a proven track record for having 10 to 20 games a year with a million plus viewers---they were really NBC's only option anyway if NBC is considering placing a few of the games on NBC OTA.

NBC got burned last time when trying to contract with the AAC in 2013, when the AAC went with ESPN's "matching" deal. Does the current ESPN deal have a 'match clause'? If so, or even if not, NBC might be gun-shy about dealing with the AAC again.
NBC got burned because they low bid the conference thinking that ESPN wouldnt (or couldn't) match the exposure. They will lose again if they use the same strategy because this time around, given the AAC ratings track record, there will be plenty bidding at those low levels. Same goes for ESPN. Doesnt mean there will be a huge bidding war that results in a HUGE contract for the AAC---but it does mean the low bid strategy wont work this time around.

Well, it's more complicated than that. First, the universe of possible bidders is pretty small, a handful of media companies. ESPN and NBC are probably two of four possible bidders, throwing in CBS and FOX and if you want to include Facebook and Twitter platforms, which IMO the AAC would be wise to consider as well.

Second, ratings are one thing, but not everybody necessarily interprets them the way you are. NBC may have made their "low ball" offer (pejorative term, a more neutral one is just "offer") with the expectation that the AAC would get the ratings it has gotten. Second, NBC (and others) might believe that AAC ratings have been boosted by being on ESPN channels via the exceptional exposure the AAC has gotten on the ESPN family.

Also, ESPN is in cost-cutting mode, and FOX is having a lot of assets being bought by Disney, which creates uncertainty for the sports spinoffs.

My expectations are similar to yours in dollars, i see AAC getting around $7m per school. But, (a) i expect it all to come from ESPN, (b) I expect the number of guaranteed cable broadcasts to go down, with more content shifted to streaming, and .... © it wouldn't surprise me if I am wrong about any of this. There is a LOT of uncertainty with regards to money, bidders, delivery methods, etc.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 04:10 PM by quo vadis.)
04-05-2018 04:09 PM
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Post: #32
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 03:57 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 03:39 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think if AAC makes more money it will be because ESPN has two interests. One cut off competitors from anything of value that can be had at a decent price. Two make ESPN+ work and with the change at CEO at ESPN who knows how serious ESPN is about ESPN+ now?

ESPN + is a big wild card here. The Ivy League is an early litmus test of how college athletics fans respond to it. Could be a big boon or a bust.

My inkling is that ESPN is going to want to put as much content as it can online and streaming, and the AAC, being status conscious, is going to resist that.

Just skimming, I found several AAC games on ESPN3, including one involving the national champions from UCF. SMU played three. The bulk of AAC on ESPN3 looks like were vs FCS but some conference games.
04-05-2018 04:17 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #33
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 04:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 03:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 01:13 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'll be honest...knowing NBCSN had a part of the Ivy, only to lose it, tells me these guys don't have the capacity or initiative to sew up the AAC.

You have so many programs centered in the northeast, which is the heart of NBC and Comcast, with that network already spotty with content...and they let the Ivy get away?

Ivy sports is like golf. It's not about how many are watching, but who is watching. And that "who," is very wealthy. The advertising dollar can go so much further than just any non-FBS conference. With ESPN so stretched, and it is, I just don't get what it takes to make NBCSN play.

So, I guess I can kiss Penn football goodbye. Won't be seeing that on CSN anymore.

NBCSN needs to man up and take an entire conference under their wing, and they'll see how it goes. I get that there were some bad years for ND football...it's just ONE program, though. With this entire conference, you know you're good for some great matchup's from October to season's end. And the basketball is going to deliver, too. I just don't see it...something's not all there in NBC land.

Hard to say. Contract length was probably an issue. Consider the situation. If ESPN is offering the Ivy League a 10 year deal---then a matching deal simply isnt viable for NBC if they have their eyes on those same Saturday slots going to the AAC in a couple of years.

The Ivy League, Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA are now off the board. The MW is looking at going digital with start times that work for them. If NBC wants some FBS football to pair with Notre Dame is going to have to be the AAC. Given that the AAC is the only G5 with a proven track record for having 10 to 20 games a year with a million plus viewers---they were really NBC's only option anyway if NBC is considering placing a few of the games on NBC OTA.

NBC got burned last time when trying to contract with the AAC in 2013, when the AAC went with ESPN's "matching" deal. Does the current ESPN deal have a 'match clause'? If so, or even if not, NBC might be gun-shy about dealing with the AAC again.
NBC got burned because they low bid the conference thinking that ESPN wouldnt (or couldn't) match the exposure. They will lose again if they use the same strategy because this time around, given the AAC ratings track record, there will be plenty bidding at those low levels. Same goes for ESPN. Doesnt mean there will be a huge bidding war that results in a HUGE contract for the AAC---but it does mean the low bid strategy wont work this time around.

Well, it's more complicated than that. First, the universe of possible bidders is pretty small, a handful of media companies. ESPN and NBC are probably two of four possible bidders, throwing in CBS and FOX and if you want to include Facebook and Twitter platforms, which IMO the AAC would be wise to consider as well.

Second, ratings are one thing, but not everybody necessarily interprets them the way you are. NBC may have made their "low ball" offer (pejorative term, a more neutral one is just "offer") with the expectation that the AAC would get the ratings it has gotten. Second, NBC (and others) might believe that AAC ratings have been boosted by being on ESPN channels via the exceptional exposure the AAC has gotten on the ESPN family.

Also, ESPN is in cost-cutting mode, and FOX is having a lot of assets being bought by Disney, which creates uncertainty for the sports spinoffs.

My expectations are similar to yours in dollars, i see AAC getting around $7m per school. But, (a) i expect it all to come from ESPN, (b) I expect the number of guaranteed cable broadcasts to go down, with more content shifted to streaming, and .... © it wouldn't surprise me if I am wrong about any of this. There is a LOT of uncertainty with regards to money, bidders, delivery methods, etc.

Wouldnt be surprised at all if ESPN-Plus is part of any ESPN offer (in fact, I expect it). Depending on what content is sent there---Im not opposed to it. To me--ESPN3 and ESPN-Plus are little different from an exposure stand point. The vast majority of viewers on either platform are going to be there because they are seeking out a specific event---not a lot of casual viewers there.

I agree---the AAC will be looking to keep as much of their key revenue sports on big platform linear networks as possible. So--ideally--the AAC would like to split first/second tiers between say ESPN and NBC (say 50 games total). The rest, I'd prefer to sell CBS-Sports anything out of the left overs they want. The rest to ESPN-Plus for whatever you can get (if anything).
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 04:37 PM by Attackcoog.)
04-05-2018 04:34 PM
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Post: #34
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 04:34 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 04:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 03:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hard to say. Contract length was probably an issue. Consider the situation. If ESPN is offering the Ivy League a 10 year deal---then a matching deal simply isnt viable for NBC if they have their eyes on those same Saturday slots going to the AAC in a couple of years.

The Ivy League, Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA are now off the board. The MW is looking at going digital with start times that work for them. If NBC wants some FBS football to pair with Notre Dame is going to have to be the AAC. Given that the AAC is the only G5 with a proven track record for having 10 to 20 games a year with a million plus viewers---they were really NBC's only option anyway if NBC is considering placing a few of the games on NBC OTA.

NBC got burned last time when trying to contract with the AAC in 2013, when the AAC went with ESPN's "matching" deal. Does the current ESPN deal have a 'match clause'? If so, or even if not, NBC might be gun-shy about dealing with the AAC again.
NBC got burned because they low bid the conference thinking that ESPN wouldnt (or couldn't) match the exposure. They will lose again if they use the same strategy because this time around, given the AAC ratings track record, there will be plenty bidding at those low levels. Same goes for ESPN. Doesnt mean there will be a huge bidding war that results in a HUGE contract for the AAC---but it does mean the low bid strategy wont work this time around.

Well, it's more complicated than that. First, the universe of possible bidders is pretty small, a handful of media companies. ESPN and NBC are probably two of four possible bidders, throwing in CBS and FOX and if you want to include Facebook and Twitter platforms, which IMO the AAC would be wise to consider as well.

Second, ratings are one thing, but not everybody necessarily interprets them the way you are. NBC may have made their "low ball" offer (pejorative term, a more neutral one is just "offer") with the expectation that the AAC would get the ratings it has gotten. Second, NBC (and others) might believe that AAC ratings have been boosted by being on ESPN channels via the exceptional exposure the AAC has gotten on the ESPN family.

Also, ESPN is in cost-cutting mode, and FOX is having a lot of assets being bought by Disney, which creates uncertainty for the sports spinoffs.

My expectations are similar to yours in dollars, i see AAC getting around $7m per school. But, (a) i expect it all to come from ESPN, (b) I expect the number of guaranteed cable broadcasts to go down, with more content shifted to streaming, and .... © it wouldn't surprise me if I am wrong about any of this. There is a LOT of uncertainty with regards to money, bidders, delivery methods, etc.

Wouldnt be surprised at all if ESPN-Plus is part of any ESPN offer (in fact, I expect it). Depending on what content is sent there---Im not opposed to it. To me--ESPN3 and ESPN-Plus are little different from an exposure stand point. The vast majority of viewers on either platform are going to be there because they are seeking out a specific event---not a lot of casual viewers there.

I agree---the AAC will be looking to keep as much of their key revenue sports on big platform linear networks as possible. So--ideally--the AAC would like to split first/second tiers between say ESPN and NBC (say 50 games total). The rest, I'd prefer to sell CBS-Sports anything out of the left overs they want. The rest to ESPN-Plus.

If and I think it is a big if after changing CEO's but if ESPN is serious about ESPN+ I think it is better to be on ESPN+ than ESPN3 because of the revenue. ESPN3 inserts so few ads there can't be any real revenue there but ESPN+ has revenue potential and if it gets to where it is generating decent income, keeping subscribers subscribed will create revenue potential for the schools.
04-05-2018 04:40 PM
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Post: #35
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 04:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 04:34 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 04:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 03:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-05-2018 02:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  NBC got burned last time when trying to contract with the AAC in 2013, when the AAC went with ESPN's "matching" deal. Does the current ESPN deal have a 'match clause'? If so, or even if not, NBC might be gun-shy about dealing with the AAC again.
NBC got burned because they low bid the conference thinking that ESPN wouldnt (or couldn't) match the exposure. They will lose again if they use the same strategy because this time around, given the AAC ratings track record, there will be plenty bidding at those low levels. Same goes for ESPN. Doesnt mean there will be a huge bidding war that results in a HUGE contract for the AAC---but it does mean the low bid strategy wont work this time around.

Well, it's more complicated than that. First, the universe of possible bidders is pretty small, a handful of media companies. ESPN and NBC are probably two of four possible bidders, throwing in CBS and FOX and if you want to include Facebook and Twitter platforms, which IMO the AAC would be wise to consider as well.

Second, ratings are one thing, but not everybody necessarily interprets them the way you are. NBC may have made their "low ball" offer (pejorative term, a more neutral one is just "offer") with the expectation that the AAC would get the ratings it has gotten. Second, NBC (and others) might believe that AAC ratings have been boosted by being on ESPN channels via the exceptional exposure the AAC has gotten on the ESPN family.

Also, ESPN is in cost-cutting mode, and FOX is having a lot of assets being bought by Disney, which creates uncertainty for the sports spinoffs.

My expectations are similar to yours in dollars, i see AAC getting around $7m per school. But, (a) i expect it all to come from ESPN, (b) I expect the number of guaranteed cable broadcasts to go down, with more content shifted to streaming, and .... © it wouldn't surprise me if I am wrong about any of this. There is a LOT of uncertainty with regards to money, bidders, delivery methods, etc.

Wouldnt be surprised at all if ESPN-Plus is part of any ESPN offer (in fact, I expect it). Depending on what content is sent there---Im not opposed to it. To me--ESPN3 and ESPN-Plus are little different from an exposure stand point. The vast majority of viewers on either platform are going to be there because they are seeking out a specific event---not a lot of casual viewers there.

I agree---the AAC will be looking to keep as much of their key revenue sports on big platform linear networks as possible. So--ideally--the AAC would like to split first/second tiers between say ESPN and NBC (say 50 games total). The rest, I'd prefer to sell CBS-Sports anything out of the left overs they want. The rest to ESPN-Plus.

If and I think it is a big if after changing CEO's but if ESPN is serious about ESPN+ I think it is better to be on ESPN+ than ESPN3 because of the revenue. ESPN3 inserts so few ads there can't be any real revenue there but ESPN+ has revenue potential and if it gets to where it is generating decent income, keeping subscribers subscribed will create revenue potential for the schools.

Interesting point.....I think your probably right---in today's TV landscape, the ESPN-Plus model is probably more viable long term than ESPN-3. 04-cheers
04-05-2018 04:49 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #36
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
Let's estimate there is 100 million paid subscribers of the internet, about how many subscribe to cable.. And lets conservatively estimate ESPN Gets between $.01 a month and $.10/month for ESPN3. That's between $1 million/month and $10M/month for ESPN3.

At $5/month it would take ESPN between 200,000 to 2M subscribers to replace ESPN even stevens.

This is why I think ESPN3 will remain for the time being on top of contractual rights guaranteeing ESPN3 coverage for certain conferences and events
04-05-2018 05:30 PM
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Post: #37
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 05:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Let's estimate there is 100 million paid subscribers of the internet, about how many subscribe to cable.. And lets conservatively estimate ESPN Gets between $.01 a month and $.10/month for ESPN3. That's between $1 million/month and $10M/month for ESPN3.

At $5/month it would take ESPN between 200,000 to 2M subscribers to replace ESPN even stevens.

This is why I think ESPN3 will remain for the time being on top of contractual rights guaranteeing ESPN3 coverage for certain conferences and events

The thing is--ESPN-Plus is replacing MLS streaming services. Its replacing the streaming services for several college conferences. My bet is that just those loyal fan bases probably get you close to that number (and maybe even more). 200K to 2 million isnt really that many. Plus, its an easy switch for most of the loyal fan bases because in almost every case these subscribers will be getting more for less. The real challenge is getting much beyond the built-in hard core viewers for the stuff thats moving there. I dont know if a few MLB and hockey games is going to get the more casual sports fan to spend $5 a month. At least they kept the price down---so more people might at least give it try.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 05:43 PM by Attackcoog.)
04-05-2018 05:40 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #38
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
I think they get around 1 million the first year
04-05-2018 05:45 PM
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Post: #39
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
NBC is clearing room for the UFC. FOX goes after WWE and clears bunch of programming with UFC gone.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2018 10:04 PM by MissouriStateBears.)
04-05-2018 10:03 PM
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Post: #40
RE: ESPN, Ivy League sign 10-year deal, mostly ESPN +
(04-05-2018 10:03 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  NBC is clearing room for the UFC. FOX goes after WWE and clears bunch of programming with UFC gone.

Yeah, I've read about that. Thought it was kind of a joke, or not very significant, but, NBC is chomping at the bit for it. UFC was going to sign with NBC, only to go to Fox. That "switcharoo" and the ratings dip...doesn't matter, apparently. UFC is going to keep making good money, and NBC is probably going to be the one giving it to them. While WWE is meeting with Fox; WWE and NBC having this very long relationship.

In a way, NBC is after this different kind of audience. It's more international, and eclectic. Their portfolio reflects it. Sure, there's some familiar things in there, but they chase different things. And quite aggressively, but still spotty on reason?

Like, I get it why they aren't fully in the college scene. With the emphasis on conference sports and this academic year-long commitment to airing all of their stuff just to get a sniff of football and marquee basketball, the winter and spring sports that come with those arrangements put NBC at odds with their holdings. The Olympics, for example, and all of those winter sports, and then golf...where would college hoops fit in?

There's soccer, too.

But, most of the time, when I'm flipping through stations, NBC and its sports stations come off pretty weirdly. A lot of it looks out of place; looks pre-recorded. Like, I'll be looking for hoops early Saturday afternoon, and while ESPN is good for some, and CBS...NBC-SN is pushing out...some skiing. God knows if it's live, I don't.

I can't fault them for not wanting the commitment thing. If NBC is going to have AAC sports, it's going to have to deal with all of its content, even the bad stuff. When you own the rights to air it, what are you supposed to do with it all? Up here in the northeast, with this very diverse population, just so you can have some good football on Saturdays in the Fall, what are you supposed to do in the winter/spring with bad basketball...in an Olympic year, or as soccer seasons ramp up? But even during the heart of football season, is UFC a better primetime piece for broadcast, or do you risk it with a college football game that might be a total wash?
04-06-2018 03:54 AM
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