https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/co...3b7f168a00

Quote:Among the many emails former Tennessee athletic director John Currie received when he began to search for a coach to replace Butch Jones was one from an Alabama athletic department staffer with the subject “Head Coaching Analysis.”

It included six pages of charts, graphs, numbers and pictures that told the story of every head coach hired since 2000 by the “Top 25 historic football programs,” determined by using decades of The Associated Press rankings .

Using a weighted formula that combined winning percentage, percentage of top-10 finishes in the AP poll and percentage of seasons winning a national championship, and putting extra emphasis on the most recent five seasons, each coach’s stint at a school was given an efficiency rating.

Quote:The numbers also showed that coaches most likely to succeed at those schools had previous Power Five head coaching experience. Also, coaches who were previously a Power Five assistant had higher efficiency ratings than coaches who were previously a head coach at a Group of Five school.

Here are their rankings:
1. Chip Kelly, UCLA
2. Willie Taggart, Florida State
3. Dan Mullen, Florida
4. Joe Morehead, Mississippi State
5. Scott Frost, Nebraska
6. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M
7. Kevin Sumlin, Arizona
8. Mario Cristobal, Oregon
9. Chad Morris, Arkansas
10. Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee
11. Josh Heupel, UCF
12. Chad Lunsford, Georgia Southern
13. Sonny Dykes, SMU
14. Matt Luke, Mississippi
15. Steve Campbell, South Alabama
16. Mike Bloomgren, Rice
17. Billy Napier, Louisiana
18. Jonathan Smith, Oregon State
19. Dana Dimel, UTEP
20. Herm Edwards, Arizona State

Interesting approach, though it's important to point out here that they are looking at the success of Power 5 program to assemble their criteria for who will make the best hire. IMO, at the FCS and G5 level getting a coach with Power 5 experience is massively overrated. I think the approach might undervalue Steve Campbell a bit.

Success is subjective as well. What will be considered a successful season for UTEP won't necessarily be considered a successful season for GS and such.