BePcr07
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RE: The Cost of Moving 7 ACC Schools to the SEC
(09-14-2023 11:14 AM)JRsec Wrote: (09-14-2023 06:23 AM)tf8693 Wrote: (09-13-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote: (09-13-2023 09:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote: (09-13-2023 06:22 AM)Skyhawk Wrote: lose - by P2 poaching...
For the Big10, any of the 4Cs and Kansas, are the most likely, due to AAU, etc.
For the SEC, Kansas, another TX school, and/or possibly others.
If 24 is the goal is either the SEC or B1G sweep the jewels of the ACC, then I could see Kansas or the 4C being considered. Otherwise, I'm not so sure.
Let's say the B1G grabbed Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Stanford, and Virginia for 24. The SEC would take Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, and...? If they want 24, I'm not sure who would suffice. Would the SEC go for Colorado, Kansas, Utah, plus an Arizona school? Would the SEC consider Louisville or Duke? What about a non-power school like Tulane in the heart of SEC-country? I'm just not sure what the SEC would do IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.
Let's say the SEC went to 24 with Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia. Would the B1G be able to get Notre Dame? They would likely take California and Stanford. What about Virginia Tech and North Carolina St? Or Pittsburgh or Syracuse? Or even the 4C? I'm not sure who the B1G would consider in the scenario IF the conference felt obligated to reach 24.
The most likely race to 24, in my mind, involves the conferences splitting the top of the ACC.
SEC adds Clemson, Colorado, Florida St, Kansas, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
B1G adds California, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, and Stanford.
XII (14) swallows the ACC (6) and adds 4 of Memphis, Oregon St, San Diego St, South Florida, Tulane, and Washington St.
Would you care to tell me when the Big 10 has landed anything that the SEC also wanted? Seriously? Texas? Texas A&M? Possibly Oklahoma? Other than those the 2 conferences haven't gone head to head. North Carolina has twice approached the SEC. In 2011 it was about coming with Duke if Virginia headed to the Big 10. I don't think either conference sweeps the 3 academic jewels of the ACC and that is what they are, academic jewels. Of the three only UNC has an athletic value worthy of either conference. Virginia doesn't have much revenue punch at all for athletics. Duke has some but in basketball.
If the number is 20, which I believe to be more likely, the SEC will go after Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and either Clemson or Miami.
With FOX/Big 10 looking to monetize a kind of NIT tournament in the future, I look for a push toward a breakaway national tournament for the championship in basketball. Hoops will slightly more than double in value if this transpires.
I believe the networks stressed football to consolidate the biggest money first. When Yormark raised the possibility of adding hoops only the plan was tipped to us. If the Big 10 and SEC move to 24 it will be with hoops brands, possibly at a reduced rate, but with football playing hoops brands. I think the Big 12 will pick up the hoops only brands.
If the SEC added Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Clemson, to complete football branding in the SE, I could see an SEC and Big 10 competition for Miami (which also has good basketball). I could see the SEC taking Duke to appease and cement UNC and because ESPN would want to keep them, and I could see a similar competition between the SEC and Big 10 over Kansas which has football but is a hoops blueblood. ESPN also has a yen for Kansas.
I think Virginia goes Big 10 with Colorado. I believe ESPN will want to keep Miami and Duke. Stanford and Cal wind up in the Big 10 and if the Big 10 is smart they take Utah as well along with one of the Arizona schools.
Big 10 to 20: Virginia and Colorado (the Buffs to help link the West to the Midwest). To 24: Arizona, Cal, Stanford and Utah.
SEC to 20: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech. To 24: Duke, Miami, Kansas, and N.C. State just to complete the Research Triangle.
Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse to the Big 12 with Connecticut, San Diego State and South Florida.
I don't think there's a set number for either conference. And there certainly isn't an agreement between them as to a set number. This process is competitive, not cooperative. In the end, I think the final number depends on what each conference wants and is able to get toward that end. If I had to guess, I think the Big Ten ends up at 24 and the SEC ends up at 20. But I very easily could be wrong about that.
Once you do away with divisions, the only thing you bump up against is the need to keep an even number for scheduling. I thought it interesting when Swarbrick and Warren initially tossed out the number 22. That's an strange number. 20 or 24 is seems more symmetrical.
But then I took a look at markets which were sufficient to justify their addition, schools with national appeal capable of doing the same, and revenue of schools compared against the SEC and Big 10's respective MEAN revenue, and those comments suddenly made sense.
I agree that having an equal number appears comparative, but it too is competitive, not so much from a conference standpoint where size of share is impacted, as it is from a network standpoint. It means one network doesn't have more games to sell than another. And even that impacts conferences inasmuch as it increases or decreases their voting strength not just presently in the NCAA but in any organization of upper tier schools.
I've stated that the number may be dictated by the time slots a network has need to fill, or in the case of the Big 10, networks.
At 22 the SEC could add effectively. Those next two schools to 24 if taken alone take a dip in what they offer, but they do preserve rivalries for some others included. We'll see which is the more important aspect. BTW, 22 seems to work pretty well for the Big 10 as well.
I've never played around with 22. Here goes:
B1G (18) + Miami, Notre Dame, Stanford, Virginia
SEC (16) + Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
XII (15) + California, Connecticut, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
MWC (12) + Memphis, Navy, Oregon St, Rice, SMU, South Florida, Tulane, Tulsa, UTSA, Washington St
SBC (14) + Army, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee St, North Texas, Temple, UAB, Western Kentucky
MAC (12) + CUSA (8) + Charlotte, Massachusetts
Big East (10) + Boston College, Wake Forest
> Football: IND
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