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Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
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Bearcat01 Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
recruiting has took a HUGE nose dive since we signed cumberland and Kyle
 
03-27-2018 02:27 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 12:37 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(03-27-2018 04:45 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(03-26-2018 06:45 PM)Not Duane Wrote:  
(03-26-2018 06:35 PM)doss2 Wrote:  
(03-22-2018 11:42 PM)Loco Bearcat Wrote:  If Cronin was a great coach UC would be playing Kansas St in the Elite 8 on Saturday, however Sweet 16 and Elite 8 don't matter to him!!

If Cronin were great others would have approached him. Oh UNLV was, as we say in takeovers, a take under.

I think we may have the first ever tenured MBB coach in DI...Find me another coach that has lasted this long at a DI school with only one deep run in almost a decade and a half...I don't think there are any!

Putting aside the “low majors”, the only other two are Fran Dunphy (Temple) and Dave Rose (BYU).

Expanding on my post this morning, attached are all D1 coaches who have coached at least 12 years at the same school and have just one Sweet 16 or less:

Lewis Jackson (Alabama State)
Will Brown (Albany)
Rick Byrd (Belmont)
Dave Rose (BYU) * One S16
Barclay Radebaugh (Charleston Southern)
Mick Cronin (Cincinnati) * One S16
Bill Herrion (New Hampshire)
Brian Jones (North Dakota State)
Ben Jacobson (Northern Iowa) * One S16
Mike McConathy (Northwestern State)
Greg Kampe (Oakland)
Chris Mooney (Richmond) * One S16
Randy Bennett (Saint Mary's) *One S16
John Dunne (Saint Peter's)
Horace Broadnax (Savannah State)
Fran Dunphy (Temple)
Randy Rahe (Weber State)
Steve Hawkins (Western Michigan)
Tony Shaver (William & Mary)
Mike Young (Wofford)
James Jones (Yale)

Puts Mick in powerful company.
 
03-27-2018 02:30 PM
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Post: #83
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 02:21 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  Actually, I appear to be more optimistic than many here. I see Cronin slowly getting better as a coach and recruiter (which can't be easy at a non-power 5 school) every year. We took a shot in the NCAA's, but but could easily have a Final Four team this year and then everyone across the country would be singing Cronin's praises.

If Jacob Evans comes back next year, we have a team that is looking a single digit NCAA seed again with another chance to make an NCAA run. And if it happens, no one will be questioning Cronin.

Mick has had plenty of chances, there is a reason his teams stumble in March, I guess I'm not buying that it is simply bad luck. Alot ot the March issues are visible during the season (I pointed this out a few times this year and got slapped down for it), if you know what you are looking for. These issues could be correctable, but there isn't any evidence that Mick thinks that is necessary.
 
03-27-2018 02:32 PM
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Post: #84
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
With more than 100,000 alumni in the metro and 44,000 students how does UC struggle to average 10,000 for our headliner sport, college basketball? Lots of factors contribute to this but high on the list in my mind is it's just not a very entertaining product given Mick's coaching style. Run and shoot blowouts in November and December against opponents so obscure we must Google them to find out what state they're from. Then a loss to X. Then a conference season that (most years) has been grinding rock fights where the first team to 65 points survives.

When there is passion, energy and high expectations around a program the seats fill up. Even those hard plastic bleachers at the top of 5th/3rd, pre-renovation. This area has filled Nippert to 40,000+ even for Tubs and was sold out often for Kelly and Jones during the new "golden years" of UC football. Where are just a couple thousand of those folks on winter nights for conference basketball games to announce 13,000 when brand X has 10,000 nightly? I think the core fans have settled in and stayed the course citing some real accomplishment under Mick's tenure. But programs exist to grow and it no longer feels as if UC is growing when we watch the now annual early exit in March. Or celebrate Mack leaving so maybe X has the misfortune of hiring someone UC could consistently beat. Would we feel better with even a top 30 recruiting class coming in? I sure would. And with his considerable accomplishments one has to wonder why we don't have such a class after a top ten season. Is Mick ready to move on? Bored? Burned out? With Hurley and Hardaway joining the AAC coaching ranks he better start finding more blue chip talent, fast.
 
03-27-2018 03:25 PM
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Post: #85
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
That's an interesting list. Here's another... List of coaches who have made the NCAA tournament the last 8 seasons or more:

Mick Cronin
Roy Williams
Mark Few
Tom Izzo
Mike Krzyzewski
Bill Self

Maybe that's why he's lasted so long. I feel like I'm continually between the two sides on this. I don't think we should be looking to move on after his best season that included a clear top 10 team, a conference championship and a conference tournament championship, but I think we need to see this kind of team more regularly for him to stay another 8-10 years.
 
03-27-2018 03:26 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #86
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
This debate has grown tiresome. Mick needs to do better in the postseason but there's no way you fire him now. Let's move onto another topic.
 
03-27-2018 03:33 PM
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Post: #87
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 03:26 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  That's an interesting list. Here's another... List of coaches who have made the NCAA tournament the last 8 seasons or more:

Mick Cronin
Roy Williams
Mark Few
Tom Izzo
Mike Krzyzewski
Bill Self

Maybe that's why he's lasted so long. I feel like I'm continually between the two sides on this. I don't think we should be looking to move on after his best season that included a clear top 10 team, a conference championship and a conference tournament championship, but I think we need to see this kind of team more regularly for him to stay another 8-10 years.

I am in your camp Mark that he should not be let go this off season. That being said, I think the patience has worn thin for a significant portion of the fan base. If things remain status quo, he won't be here three years from now... not because of the results on the court but because of a reduction in revenue
 
03-27-2018 03:34 PM
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Post: #88
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 03:26 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  That's an interesting list. Here's another... List of coaches who have made the NCAA tournament the last 8 seasons or more:

Mick Cronin
Roy Williams
Mark Few
Tom Izzo
Mike Krzyzewski
Bill Self

Maybe that's why he's lasted so long. I feel like I'm continually between the two sides on this. I don't think we should be looking to move on after his best season that included a clear top 10 team, a conference championship and a conference tournament championship, but I think we need to see this kind of team more regularly for him to stay another 8-10 years.

I don't know, but I still think 2012 was a better season. Sure he lost to Marshall, Presbyterian, and St. Johns that year and had five less wins than this year (albeit in a MUUUUUUCH better conference) but he had to deal with the Crosstown Brawl ramifications (and did a much better job than his counterpart), he ended up making the Big East CCG, and made the Sweet Sixteen as a 6 seed all with what I would consider a less talented overall squad.

The record is worse, the conference results are worse, but the end result and context really makes me think that was his best coaching job.

Also...just because, I decided to look up how everyone is doing Overseas. Yancy is playing for the French League leaders at the moment and averaging 10/5 in 20 mpg. He has put together a nice little career as a partial starter and first forward off the bench in Europe. Averaging 13 ppg and 5.5 rpg over the course of 6 seasons in Lithuania, China, Germany, Israel, and France.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2018 03:45 PM by BearcatMan.)
03-27-2018 03:36 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 03:36 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(03-27-2018 03:26 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  That's an interesting list. Here's another... List of coaches who have made the NCAA tournament the last 8 seasons or more:

Mick Cronin
Roy Williams
Mark Few
Tom Izzo
Mike Krzyzewski
Bill Self

Maybe that's why he's lasted so long. I feel like I'm continually between the two sides on this. I don't think we should be looking to move on after his best season that included a clear top 10 team, a conference championship and a conference tournament championship, but I think we need to see this kind of team more regularly for him to stay another 8-10 years.

I don't know, but I still think 2012 was a better season. Sure he lost to Marshall, Presbyterian, and St. Johns that year and had five less wins than this year (albeit in a MUUUUUUCH better conference) but he had to deal with the Crosstown Brawl ramifications (and did a much better job than his counterpart), he ended up making the Big East CCG, and made the Sweet Sixteen as a 6 seed all with what I would consider a less talented overall squad.

The record is worse, the conference results are worse, but the end result and context really makes me think that was his best coaching job.

Maybe his best coaching job, but this team was objectively better than the 2012 team. 2012 was a team at the end of the season capable of making a run, but at best a fringe title contender (and that's probably generous)... Despite the collapse against Nevada this was a top 10 team all year (top 5 by some metrics) that had a very legitimate chance at the title. It's why this season stings so badly.
 
03-27-2018 03:39 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 03:39 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(03-27-2018 03:36 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(03-27-2018 03:26 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  That's an interesting list. Here's another... List of coaches who have made the NCAA tournament the last 8 seasons or more:

Mick Cronin
Roy Williams
Mark Few
Tom Izzo
Mike Krzyzewski
Bill Self

Maybe that's why he's lasted so long. I feel like I'm continually between the two sides on this. I don't think we should be looking to move on after his best season that included a clear top 10 team, a conference championship and a conference tournament championship, but I think we need to see this kind of team more regularly for him to stay another 8-10 years.

I don't know, but I still think 2012 was a better season. Sure he lost to Marshall, Presbyterian, and St. Johns that year and had five less wins than this year (albeit in a MUUUUUUCH better conference) but he had to deal with the Crosstown Brawl ramifications (and did a much better job than his counterpart), he ended up making the Big East CCG, and made the Sweet Sixteen as a 6 seed all with what I would consider a less talented overall squad.

The record is worse, the conference results are worse, but the end result and context really makes me think that was his best coaching job.

Maybe his best coaching job, but this team was objectively better than the 2012 team. 2012 was a team at the end of the season capable of making a run, but at best a fringe title contender (and that's probably generous)... Despite the collapse against Nevada this was a top 10 team all year (top 5 by some metrics) that had a very legitimate chance at the title. It's why this season stings so badly.

Oh I get it...I just feel like making a run with a worse team makes it a better season coaching-wise than crapping the bed with a contender. We're not talking about the teams here, we're talking about Mick's coaching, right?
 
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03-27-2018 03:46 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 03:46 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(03-27-2018 03:39 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(03-27-2018 03:36 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(03-27-2018 03:26 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  That's an interesting list. Here's another... List of coaches who have made the NCAA tournament the last 8 seasons or more:

Mick Cronin
Roy Williams
Mark Few
Tom Izzo
Mike Krzyzewski
Bill Self

Maybe that's why he's lasted so long. I feel like I'm continually between the two sides on this. I don't think we should be looking to move on after his best season that included a clear top 10 team, a conference championship and a conference tournament championship, but I think we need to see this kind of team more regularly for him to stay another 8-10 years.

I don't know, but I still think 2012 was a better season. Sure he lost to Marshall, Presbyterian, and St. Johns that year and had five less wins than this year (albeit in a MUUUUUUCH better conference) but he had to deal with the Crosstown Brawl ramifications (and did a much better job than his counterpart), he ended up making the Big East CCG, and made the Sweet Sixteen as a 6 seed all with what I would consider a less talented overall squad.

The record is worse, the conference results are worse, but the end result and context really makes me think that was his best coaching job.

Maybe his best coaching job, but this team was objectively better than the 2012 team. 2012 was a team at the end of the season capable of making a run, but at best a fringe title contender (and that's probably generous)... Despite the collapse against Nevada this was a top 10 team all year (top 5 by some metrics) that had a very legitimate chance at the title. It's why this season stings so badly.

Oh I get it...I just feel like making a run with a worse team makes it a better season coaching-wise than crapping the bed with a contender. We're not talking about the teams here, we're talking about Mick's coaching, right?

I'm talking best overall season. I'll take this year over winning 1 more game and not being a top 5 type team. The Nevada loss is going to bother me forever though.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2018 03:51 PM by bearcatmark.)
03-27-2018 03:51 PM
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Post: #92
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
So where do we land in the final polls this year, over/under top 20?

Think this out, you're often forgotten with a first weekend exit. ha
 
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03-27-2018 03:59 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 03:59 PM)dsquare Wrote:  So where do we land in the final polls this year, over/under top 20?

Think this out, you're often forgotten with a first weekend exit. ha

Do they even do polls after the tournament? I can't remember ever checking for that. Polls don't matter at all in college basketball other than perception and I doubt post tournament polls do anything with that. People are already checked out.
 
03-27-2018 04:09 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
Yep, they do a final poll.
 
03-27-2018 04:11 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 04:11 PM)dsquare Wrote:  Yep, they do a final poll.

hmm. who knew. Probably somewhere between 10-15. And nobody will remember it.
 
03-27-2018 04:12 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 02:25 PM)Marcus Wrote:  I don't see recruiting improving at all, but maybe that is just me. We've become virtual total non factors the last few classes for Top 100 guys. We beat Buffalo for our latest commitment and just got left out of the Top 4 for a kid in favor of freaking USF, UAB, Florida Gulf Coast and Ole Miss, that the staff has spent a lot of time on over the last month or two. Our best bet at attracting legitimate talent going forward is pretty clearly the transfer route IMO.

My biggest concern.
 
03-27-2018 04:22 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
I believe we barely finished Top 15 SK's senior year in the polls.
 
03-27-2018 04:32 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 02:21 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  Actually, I appear to be more optimistic than many here. I see Cronin slowly getting better as a coach and recruiter (which can't be easy at a non-power 5 school) every year. We took a shot in the NCAA's, but but could easily have a Final Four team this year and then everyone across the country would be singing Cronin's praises.

If Jacob Evans comes back next year, we have a team that is looking a single digit NCAA seed again with another chance to make an NCAA run. And if it happens, no one will be questioning Cronin.

I agree, I actually think we will be a better team next year if Evans comes back. Obviously losing Clark hurts (and losing Washington doesn't really hurt), but Scott is ready to be a starter and the year of development for all our players outweighs the losses of Clark/Washington.

Don't bet on no one questioning Cronin though. It seems like some people only care about NCAA tournament results and others only care about getting recruits who are 4* plus, regardless of how they play. Can't make everyone happy.
 
03-27-2018 04:33 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
Out of curiosity I looked at career winning percentage of NCAA D1 coaches (active and retired). Of the 250+ coaches listed (there are many ties), Mick currently stands at #111. Now that may sound "average" but you're talking thousandths of a percentage point separating coaches on the list. Here are a few names with career winning percentages below Mick:

113. Ray Meyer (DePaul)
114. John Chaney
115. Don Haskins (UTEP)
117. Jim Harrick
120. Skip Prosser
125. Tubby Smith
126. Mike Brey
128. Steve Fisher
138. Steve Alford
141. Norm Stewart (Missouri)
142. Gene Keady
150. Bruce Pearl
153. Bruce Weber
157. Kelvin Sampson
158. Rick Barnes
169. Ben Howland
172. John Thompson
176. Pete Gillen
177. Fran Dunphy
182. Gary Williams
196. John Beilein
201. Kermit Davis (MTSU)
205. Jim Valvano
214. Mark Gottfried
228. Frank Martin
237. Steve Lavin
242. Lon Kruger
249. Buzz Williams

I don't want to spend the time and energy comparing conference regular season titles, conf. tournament titles, NCAAT runs, national championships, etc., in order to keep this simple. Mick has had solid overall success in his 15 year coaching career and should continue to win at Cincinnati at a good clip. His success in the tournaments (conference & NCAAT) has been less so. We had one FF and 3 E8's in Huggins' 16 years here. However, those occurred during his first 7 seasons and the next 9 seasons resulted in only one S16 appearance. So looking at it strictly from the NCAAT lens, in almost 30 seasons Cincinnati has one FF, 3 E8 and 5 S16 appearances. For comparison's sake, here are some other programs NCAAT runs over the past 30 years:

Duke 5 Nattys/10 FF/13 E8/21 S16
UNC 4 Nattys/11 FF/14 E8/18 S16
Kentucky 3 Nattys/8 FF/15 E8/18 S16
Kansas 1 Natty/7 FF/13 E8/19 S16
Zona 1 Natty/3 FF/9 E8/16 S16
Indiana 0 Nattys/2 FF/3 E8/9 S16
Ohio St. 0 Nattys/2 FF/4 E8/7 S16
Exavier 0 Nattys/0 FF/3 E8/8 S16
Purdue 0 Nattys/0 FF/2 E8/8 S16
Pitt 0 Nattys/0 FF/1 E8/5 S16

The only reason I bring this up is it points to more than just coaching. IMO, long term, high level success is also based on elite players, conference affiliation, facilities, budgets, etc. While we've had some moments during the past 30 years, I just don't see where we will have an elite level of success that can be sustained without a major uptick in conference affiliation and player talent. I don't see our program in its current state making many deep tourney runs nor winning a national title. Again, that is not what I hope for but I'm stepping back and really looking at this realistically speaking.

So this brings me back to Mick. He's not going anywhere for now unless he chooses to move on. There is no way our university is going to can him with his overall success but even more so for the fact that he has run a clean program and kept the ship steering through calm waters. My question is, hypothetically speaking, if we would get a new coach at some point in the future would our success look any different overall? Again, I'm not talking about in one particular year but over a period of time. To me, that is the hard question that has to be answered over the next several years. IMHO, if we are really honest about it, we may not like the answer.
 
03-27-2018 06:03 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-27-2018 04:33 PM)skyblade Wrote:  
(03-27-2018 02:21 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  Actually, I appear to be more optimistic than many here. I see Cronin slowly getting better as a coach and recruiter (which can't be easy at a non-power 5 school) every year. We took a shot in the NCAA's, but but could easily have a Final Four team this year and then everyone across the country would be singing Cronin's praises.

If Jacob Evans comes back next year, we have a team that is looking a single digit NCAA seed again with another chance to make an NCAA run. And if it happens, no one will be questioning Cronin.

I agree, I actually think we will be a better team next year if Evans comes back. Obviously losing Clark hurts (and losing Washington doesn't really hurt), but Scott is ready to be a starter and the year of development for all our players outweighs the losses of Clark/Washington.

Don't bet on no one questioning Cronin though. It seems like some people only care about NCAA tournament results and others only care about getting recruits who are 4* plus, regardless of how they play. Can't make everyone happy.

How in the heck can you say losing Washington will not hurt? I did not realize we had another big who can score 12 a game waiting in the wings. What team did you watch all year? Washington was extremely clutch, won us some games and was a leader. Not too many of those sitting on our bench.
 
03-27-2018 06:22 PM
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