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Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
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MrCincy Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 05:54 AM)jarr Wrote:  I am curious what everyone's own expectations are for this program. There seems to be a lot of varying opinions on this, some seem very pleased with what Mick has done here and his trajectory, others seem to think he has taken this program to a certain level but won't get us further.

I personally, have always felt this program is a top 15 hoops school. History should tell us that based on all of the basic metrics (all time wins, final 4's championships, tourney appearances, AA's, times ranked in the polls, conference titles, etc.) We will be playing in a top 15 on campus arena next year, and I believe if committed, can pay a top 25 salary. I also believe we have a top 20 fan base, at least for Basketball. It doesn't always show, but when the team is doing well, UC fans travel pretty well and will fill up the arena on a consistent basis. We are and always will be a Basketball first school, where most schools learn Football first.


I do agree with some, that basing a season on what happens in the tournament can be a bit unfair, looking at this over a longer time frame should be more accurate. I believe that 1 sweet 16 in 12 years is not meeting the expectations of this program. However, this year gave me a glimmer of hope, that perhaps Mick is turning the corner (until Sunday).

I believe our expectations should be the following:

1) Be a final four contender every other year (realizing this may result in an expected early exit, but we should be considered in the running

2) Be a tournament level team nearly every year, probably 9 out of 10 years

3) Be challenging for the league title almost every year, maybe finishing top 3. But winning a championship about 4 out of 10 times.

4) At least one final four in a 10 year span. Whether we were a heavy favorite to do so entering as a 1 or 2 seed, or making an unexpected run as 3-6 seed.

5) Staying in the top 25 about 85% of the time.

6) Consistently bringing in top 40 recruiting classes, and top 3 AAC classes

7) Creating a pipleine with local talent, possibly having a somewhat local kid (100 mile radius) every other year.

8) Producing at least one NBA player every 4 year cycle

9) At least 3 sweet 16's in a 10 year span

10) Win totals should consistently be over 25 W per year

10) OOC SOS should be top 25 consistently, with our league not providing many opportunities for quality wins

11) Continuing to graduate players on a consistent basis and have good quality players that represent the school well

12) Coming close to winning a national championship or perhaps doing the whole thing. I realize winning the whole thing is a little unrealistic, but it would be nice to get close or be discussed as a heavy favorite at least once. Winning it would probably exceed my expectations.


Are these expectations realistic or unrealistic? Has Mick met yours in his 12 years, or has he exceeded or or not met yours?
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03-21-2018 09:43 AM
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skyblade Offline
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 08:41 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  I'd definitely agree with this. I'm a big believer that you can be a top program outside the P5 (Gonzaga & Wichita) but uncertainty is the toughest thing to deal with. I think the uncertainty in that transition was a set back and it's why our talent really slid after the Sweet 16 year. There was 5 years if I'm not mistaken between SKs class and the next all conference talent we recruited- Troy.

My biggest concern now is it looks like we're going to go another year without a high end talent. If we don't nail next year's class you're going to see a massive drop off after Jarron leaves.

I don't see the lack of high-end talent. I think people are underrating a lot of players currently on the team because they didn't get much playing time - because we had excellent starters at most positions. Most new players - even one-and-dones - take a while to adjust to college; ours will have the advantage of a year of practice, a year in the weight room and some playing time. It will make the adjustment to starting a lot smoother, it won't be immediate but by mid-season we should be in good shape.

Williams was a four-star and has plenty of athleticism. If he works on his shot and his D he can be the next star point forward on the team, following in the Cumberland/Evans line.

Moore was an excellent defender off the bench and with more playing time I'd expect his 3-point percentage to go back to what it was in high-school.

Scott/Brooks basically won us the Houston game in the conference tournament final, they came in and sparked the 10-2 run that turned the game around for us (and they scored all our points while doing it). For the final month or so, Scott looked like he could start for most teams when he was in the game and Brooks was gaining confidence. Brooks basically won us the Wichita State game in the final minute with his on ball defense.

Diarra has the athleticism of Justin Jackson and also has the ability to drain threes and a better handle.

Nsoseme is one of the most athletic bigs I've ever seen. He has excellent footwork and movement - though he is offensively challenged.

Hardnett/Johnson I will wait to judge until they play in a college game. But based on their highlights and rankings we are probably in good shape for the future.

We will be less polished next year, but the athleticism and potential is there for the next several years.
 
03-21-2018 10:09 AM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 07:24 AM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  I don't think you can change this ju ju by doing the same thing we've always done.

As they say, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result. Mickball is insanity.
 
03-21-2018 10:16 AM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
I don't think we should measure our program entirely off postseason success, but it's reasonable to demand more. The one thing you're missing is seeding--if we can manage to get a 6 seed or below on a consistent basis we'll eventually make a few more sweet sixteens. Parlay that recruiting into more teams like the one we had this year and the program will be fine.
 
03-21-2018 10:19 AM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I agree with much of what you're saying. Here's where we part ways:

- In the world of sports it's ancient history now, but I've never understood why Mick got a pass for the first FOUR years. Programs with rich tradition playing in the best basketball conference ever (real Big East) would reasonably expect a substantial improvement after two seasons--or three at most. Maybe the world has changed this past decade but we're seeing coaches changed out in that cycle time if performance isn't meeting some baseline expectation.

I understand this point, but there are very few teams in recent history that have gone through a similar rebuild to what UC did. And did it clean, as well.

(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  - If we're going to blame the AAC for recruiting deficiencies, conversely, don't we have to question why recruiting was never great on the big stage--the Big East?
- A pair of 30 win seasons and arguably the highest profile in Mick's tenure and we have a recruiting class with a 2 star point guard and a tall guard who appears gifted but likely a development project. This with a front court that offers immediate openings for at least two starters.

By the time UC had success in the BE, the rug was pulled out from underneath them. There wasn't an opportunity to capitalize on what was being methodically built.

(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I'll never deny it was an enjoyable regular season and winning the conference title (outright) and tournament were new high water marks. That it took 12 seasons to achieve that at a high tradition program with abundant resources will continue to invite the Marvin Lewis comparisons. Then add in the annoyance of that little school across town with no championship tradition, thrashing UC more years than not, racing to Sweet Sixteens and an Elite Eight and it compounds the frustration.

I think you have to define "abundant". UC makes less revenue off men's basketball than 60-something other schools. And UC's men's basketball budget is somewhere in the 40s. Yes, these are this year's numbers (not BE numbers), but the point remains. UC has been and will continue to receive less and less money compared to our "peers". FYI - X makes and spends more on basketball than UC. The gap isn't getting smaller.

(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I'll always support the 'Cats and my University. I sat through the Tubs years (at least until the 3rd quarter) and I can't wait to step into the new 5th/3rd. But no matter the win/loss record, March 2019 will be approached with great trepidation by many fans. If Mick's best team can't hold a 22 point lead against a mostly unheralded Nevada squad with just six healthy players I have zero confidence our coach can escape the first weekend on any consistent basis. Sadly, if others feel the same way it could throw a big wet blanket on home attendance next year. And that's not good for UC in any way.

Agreed - although I think the new arena and home schedule next year will overcome any attendance concerns.

I realize after reading through this that I'm coming off as huge Mick supporter. I don't love him, but I do respect what he's done given the circumstances and resources at his disposal. Could someone do better? Maybe. But with UC's budget and the growing gap in revenues from P5 schools, UC can't just change coaches willy-nilly like IU, OSU, etc. unless a situation like Penny Hardaway/Memphis pops up.
 
03-21-2018 10:21 AM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 10:16 AM)TubaCat Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 07:24 AM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  I don't think you can change this ju ju by doing the same thing we've always done.

As they say, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result. Mickball is insanity.

I wonder how many times we said this quote after the NIT year with Lance.
 
03-21-2018 10:23 AM
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jarr Offline
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 10:21 AM)JPBearcat3 Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I agree with much of what you're saying. Here's where we part ways:

- In the world of sports it's ancient history now, but I've never understood why Mick got a pass for the first FOUR years. Programs with rich tradition playing in the best basketball conference ever (real Big East) would reasonably expect a substantial improvement after two seasons--or three at most. Maybe the world has changed this past decade but we're seeing coaches changed out in that cycle time if performance isn't meeting some baseline expectation.

I understand this point, but there are very few teams in recent history that have gone through a similar rebuild to what UC did. And did it clean, as well.

(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  - If we're going to blame the AAC for recruiting deficiencies, conversely, don't we have to question why recruiting was never great on the big stage--the Big East?
- A pair of 30 win seasons and arguably the highest profile in Mick's tenure and we have a recruiting class with a 2 star point guard and a tall guard who appears gifted but likely a development project. This with a front court that offers immediate openings for at least two starters.

By the time UC had success in the BE, the rug was pulled out from underneath them. There wasn't an opportunity to capitalize on what was being methodically built.

(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I'll never deny it was an enjoyable regular season and winning the conference title (outright) and tournament were new high water marks. That it took 12 seasons to achieve that at a high tradition program with abundant resources will continue to invite the Marvin Lewis comparisons. Then add in the annoyance of that little school across town with no championship tradition, thrashing UC more years than not, racing to Sweet Sixteens and an Elite Eight and it compounds the frustration.

I think you have to define "abundant". UC makes less revenue off men's basketball than 60-something other schools. And UC's men's basketball budget is somewhere in the 40s. Yes, these are this year's numbers (not BE numbers), but the point remains. UC has been and will continue to receive less and less money compared to our "peers". FYI - X makes and spends more on basketball than UC. The gap isn't getting smaller.

(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I'll always support the 'Cats and my University. I sat through the Tubs years (at least until the 3rd quarter) and I can't wait to step into the new 5th/3rd. But no matter the win/loss record, March 2019 will be approached with great trepidation by many fans. If Mick's best team can't hold a 22 point lead against a mostly unheralded Nevada squad with just six healthy players I have zero confidence our coach can escape the first weekend on any consistent basis. Sadly, if others feel the same way it could throw a big wet blanket on home attendance next year. And that's not good for UC in any way.

Agreed - although I think the new arena and home schedule next year will overcome any attendance concerns.

I realize after reading through this that I'm coming off as huge Mick supporter. I don't love him, but I do respect what he's done given the circumstances and resources at his disposal. Could someone do better? Maybe. But with UC's budget and the growing gap in revenues from P5 schools, UC can't just change coaches willy-nilly like IU, OSU, etc. unless a situation like Penny Hardaway/Memphis pops up.

What is the reason behind the low budget? Is it simply the AAC and football? How does our basketball budget compare to Wichita, UCONN, and Memphis? All these schools always seem to still have plenty of money to throw around. Could it be that Mick doesnt bring any excitement or buzz to the program, and people have decided to spend their money elsewhere? I will probably be going that route next year unless I see some real changes being made with the program. I can't justify the time and money I spend knowing the results will never change, because Mick says Sweet 16's are just for fans and recruits.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2018 10:39 AM by jarr.)
03-21-2018 10:38 AM
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Bearcat 1985 Online
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Post: #28
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 05:54 AM)jarr Wrote:  I believe our expectations should be the following:

1) Be a final four contender every other year (realizing this may result in an expected early exit, but we should be considered in the running

We've been to one Final Four in the last half century.
 
03-21-2018 11:18 AM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 11:18 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 05:54 AM)jarr Wrote:  I believe our expectations should be the following:

1) Be a final four contender every other year (realizing this may result in an expected early exit, but we should be considered in the running

We've been to one Final Four in the last half century.

That's fine, but from 1992 through 2002 we were a legitimate final four contender in 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2002. I don't think Jarr is saying we need to make the final four all those years, but many of us believe UC should a legitimate final four contender on a more regular basis. We were this year... i'd say we were a fringe final four contender in 2012... that's it since 2002.
 
03-21-2018 11:20 AM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
This is only Villanova's second sweet 16 in the last decade. Until this year they'd made the same amount of sweet 16s as UC in the last 10 seasons. The difference is Villanova has been a legitimate final four and championship contender even in those years they bounced early and one of those years they took full advantage and won the entire thing. Crazy stuff happens. Several of those Nova teams bounced in the second round were top 5-10 teams... Put yourself in position to make a run and you'll eventually break through.
 
03-21-2018 11:23 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 10:38 AM)jarr Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 10:21 AM)JPBearcat3 Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I agree with much of what you're saying. Here's where we part ways:

- In the world of sports it's ancient history now, but I've never understood why Mick got a pass for the first FOUR years. Programs with rich tradition playing in the best basketball conference ever (real Big East) would reasonably expect a substantial improvement after two seasons--or three at most. Maybe the world has changed this past decade but we're seeing coaches changed out in that cycle time if performance isn't meeting some baseline expectation.

I understand this point, but there are very few teams in recent history that have gone through a similar rebuild to what UC did. And did it clean, as well.

(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  - If we're going to blame the AAC for recruiting deficiencies, conversely, don't we have to question why recruiting was never great on the big stage--the Big East?
- A pair of 30 win seasons and arguably the highest profile in Mick's tenure and we have a recruiting class with a 2 star point guard and a tall guard who appears gifted but likely a development project. This with a front court that offers immediate openings for at least two starters.

By the time UC had success in the BE, the rug was pulled out from underneath them. There wasn't an opportunity to capitalize on what was being methodically built.

(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I'll never deny it was an enjoyable regular season and winning the conference title (outright) and tournament were new high water marks. That it took 12 seasons to achieve that at a high tradition program with abundant resources will continue to invite the Marvin Lewis comparisons. Then add in the annoyance of that little school across town with no championship tradition, thrashing UC more years than not, racing to Sweet Sixteens and an Elite Eight and it compounds the frustration.

I think you have to define "abundant". UC makes less revenue off men's basketball than 60-something other schools. And UC's men's basketball budget is somewhere in the 40s. Yes, these are this year's numbers (not BE numbers), but the point remains. UC has been and will continue to receive less and less money compared to our "peers". FYI - X makes and spends more on basketball than UC. The gap isn't getting smaller.

(03-21-2018 07:59 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I'll always support the 'Cats and my University. I sat through the Tubs years (at least until the 3rd quarter) and I can't wait to step into the new 5th/3rd. But no matter the win/loss record, March 2019 will be approached with great trepidation by many fans. If Mick's best team can't hold a 22 point lead against a mostly unheralded Nevada squad with just six healthy players I have zero confidence our coach can escape the first weekend on any consistent basis. Sadly, if others feel the same way it could throw a big wet blanket on home attendance next year. And that's not good for UC in any way.

Agreed - although I think the new arena and home schedule next year will overcome any attendance concerns.

I realize after reading through this that I'm coming off as huge Mick supporter. I don't love him, but I do respect what he's done given the circumstances and resources at his disposal. Could someone do better? Maybe. But with UC's budget and the growing gap in revenues from P5 schools, UC can't just change coaches willy-nilly like IU, OSU, etc. unless a situation like Penny Hardaway/Memphis pops up.

What is the reason behind the low budget? Is it simply the AAC and football? How does our basketball budget compare to Wichita, UCONN, and Memphis? All these schools always seem to still have plenty of money to throw around. Could it be that Mick doesnt bring any excitement or buzz to the program, and people have decided to spend their money elsewhere? I will probably be going that route next year unless I see some real changes being made with the program. I can't justify the time and money I spend knowing the results will never change, because Mick says Sweet 16's are just for fans and recruits.

Media revenue, donations from alumni, donations from corporate sponsors, ticket revenues (both premium and general admission), etc. should be better than what they have been. The new arena will help with some of this, particularly the premium seating revenue.

Wichita doesn't have a football team to fund and can put all of their eggs in one basket. UConn gets a ton of revenue from their WBB and from their third tier media rights (their their third tier revenue pays as much as the AAC does). Up until a couple years ago Memphis packed 16,000 a game. They didn't build their stadium and got paid by the Memphis Grizzlies if they hit certain seating thresholds.
 
03-21-2018 11:24 AM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 10:38 AM)jarr Wrote:  What is the reason behind the low budget? Is it simply the AAC and football? How does our basketball budget compare to Wichita, UCONN, and Memphis? All these schools always seem to still have plenty of money to throw around. Could it be that Mick doesnt bring any excitement or buzz to the program, and people have decided to spend their money elsewhere? I will probably be going that route next year unless I see some real changes being made with the program. I can't justify the time and money I spend knowing the results will never change, because Mick says Sweet 16's are just for fans and recruits.

Well it's mainly tv dollars. The 5 big conferences all distributed $25 - $40 million per school while the AAC schools get around $2 million per year. That's not a typo. And it's less than the basketball-only Big East gets per year.

Yes, Xavier makes more money from television than UC and we have a football program. Now, I'd argue UC's exposure on ESPN has more than made up for that, but still.

Half of UC's athletic department revenue comes from student fees ($24 million).
Rights/Licensing = $16.6 million
Ticket sales = $7.8 million

Even if a new coach came in and sold out the entire season and bunch of merch came flying off the shelves, what are we looking at? $3-4 million more per year? That's not going to make a dent.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2018 11:29 AM by JPBearcat3.)
03-21-2018 11:28 AM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 11:23 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This is only Villanova's second sweet 16 in the last decade. Until this year they'd made the same amount of sweet 16s as UC in the last 10 seasons. The difference is Villanova has been a legitimate final four and championship contender even in those years they bounced early and one of those years they took full advantage and won the entire thing. Crazy stuff happens. Several of those Nova teams bounced in the second round were top 5-10 teams... Put yourself in position to make a run and you'll eventually break through.

The other thing is Jay Wright has enough collateral to offset a couple early exits. Someone mentioned earlier how UNC got bounced early this year. Well they just one a title and were in the title the year before. They also have a top 5 recruiting class coming in. Roy W has collateral.

I agree that one year shouldn't be everything, but trends over 5-10 years. Since 1996, we have received 7 top 4 protected seeds, and not once in those years ha e we advanced out of the 1st weekend? 6nof those were eith Huggins, but Mick has implemented on alot ot similar coaching philosophies as Huggs. That's 0-7, and not a good trend. The only 2 seasons we made it to the sweet 16, were the result of a broken bracket in 2001, and poor shooting, overrated FSUnin 2012. There has to be more to this than simply bad luck.
 
03-21-2018 11:53 AM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 11:53 AM)jarr Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 11:23 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This is only Villanova's second sweet 16 in the last decade. Until this year they'd made the same amount of sweet 16s as UC in the last 10 seasons. The difference is Villanova has been a legitimate final four and championship contender even in those years they bounced early and one of those years they took full advantage and won the entire thing. Crazy stuff happens. Several of those Nova teams bounced in the second round were top 5-10 teams... Put yourself in position to make a run and you'll eventually break through.

The other thing is Jay Wright has enough collateral to offset a couple early exits. Someone mentioned earlier how UNC got bounced early this year. Well they just one a title and were in the title the year before. They also have a top 5 recruiting class coming in. Roy W has collateral.

I agree that one year shouldn't be everything, but trends over 5-10 years. Since 1996, we have received 7 top 4 protected seeds, and not once in those years ha e we advanced out of the 1st weekend? 6nof those were eith Huggins, but Mick has implemented on alot ot similar coaching philosophies as Huggs. That's 0-7, and not a good trend. The only 2 seasons we made it to the sweet 16, were the result of a broken bracket in 2001, and poor shooting, overrated FSUnin 2012. There has to be more to this than simply bad luck.

Yeah the argument about Jay Wright and Villanova is d*mb as sh*t, frankly. Even before he had a couple recent exits, he made a Final 4 and a Sweet 16 with Scottie Reynolds, an Elite 8 and Sweet 16 with the Randy Foye teams. PLUS, Wright produces contenders every single year. Mick has produced one team in 12 years that was even favored to reach the second weekend. Acting like Cronin is suddenly going to start producing top 10 teams every other year is pure lunacy...
 
03-21-2018 11:59 AM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
Yep, not to mention you have to win your share of BIG games. The tourney be it good or bad being a barometer.
 
03-21-2018 12:04 PM
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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 11:53 AM)jarr Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 11:23 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This is only Villanova's second sweet 16 in the last decade. Until this year they'd made the same amount of sweet 16s as UC in the last 10 seasons. The difference is Villanova has been a legitimate final four and championship contender even in those years they bounced early and one of those years they took full advantage and won the entire thing. Crazy stuff happens. Several of those Nova teams bounced in the second round were top 5-10 teams... Put yourself in position to make a run and you'll eventually break through.

The other thing is Jay Wright has enough collateral to offset a couple early exits. Someone mentioned earlier how UNC got bounced early this year. Well they just one a title and were in the title the year before. They also have a top 5 recruiting class coming in. Roy W has collateral.

I agree that one year shouldn't be everything, but trends over 5-10 years. Since 1996, we have received 7 top 4 protected seeds, and not once in those years ha e we advanced out of the 1st weekend? 6nof those were eith Huggins, but Mick has implemented on alot ot similar coaching philosophies as Huggs. That's 0-7, and not a good trend. The only 2 seasons we made it to the sweet 16, were the result of a broken bracket in 2001, and poor shooting, overrated FSUnin 2012. There has to be more to this than simply bad luck.

Not sure it's luck so much as inevitable randomness in games with good teams. So many of those games could have gone the exact opposite way. It's like Xavier's season this year. They went 11-0 before the conference tournament in games decided by 7 points or less... that's not a trend that was ever going to go on forever. They reverted to the mean and went 0-2 in their last two games decided by 7 points or less.

Looking at UC's high seeded second round games over the year we had:

1997 Tie game late against Iowa State, UC ball, can hold for final shot. Iowa State player falls into Burton, knocks him off balance and Burton gets called for a travel. Iowa State hits shot and wins.

1998 UC takes 2 point lead late, WVU banks in a 30 footer that was partially blocked by Patterson.

2000 UC lost Kenyon Martin before the tournament.

2002 Double OT game with supremely talented UCLA team. Knight banked in a three from the corner late for UCLA to keep them in it.

2018 22 point lead with 11 to go. If Nevada misses that late corner 3, or refs don't call that crazy offensive foul UC probably escapes despite the epic collapse

My point is this... we've been on the bad end of a lot of these...that doesn't mean we will be forever. You put a really good team out there enough and you'll break through. Until two years ago Nova was in the middle of a stretch like those Huggins teams from 1997 through 2002.... great teams every year that were bounced early in March... But Wright kept bringing in dudes and kept getting Nova towards the top of the bracket. In 2016 it finally paid off big...they broke through from their trend of losing early and won the entire thing.
 
03-21-2018 12:05 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 11:59 AM)JFlight21 Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 11:53 AM)jarr Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 11:23 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This is only Villanova's second sweet 16 in the last decade. Until this year they'd made the same amount of sweet 16s as UC in the last 10 seasons. The difference is Villanova has been a legitimate final four and championship contender even in those years they bounced early and one of those years they took full advantage and won the entire thing. Crazy stuff happens. Several of those Nova teams bounced in the second round were top 5-10 teams... Put yourself in position to make a run and you'll eventually break through.

The other thing is Jay Wright has enough collateral to offset a couple early exits. Someone mentioned earlier how UNC got bounced early this year. Well they just one a title and were in the title the year before. They also have a top 5 recruiting class coming in. Roy W has collateral.

I agree that one year shouldn't be everything, but trends over 5-10 years. Since 1996, we have received 7 top 4 protected seeds, and not once in those years ha e we advanced out of the 1st weekend? 6nof those were eith Huggins, but Mick has implemented on alot ot similar coaching philosophies as Huggs. That's 0-7, and not a good trend. The only 2 seasons we made it to the sweet 16, were the result of a broken bracket in 2001, and poor shooting, overrated FSUnin 2012. There has to be more to this than simply bad luck.

Yeah the argument about Jay Wright and Villanova is d*mb as sh*t, frankly. Even before he had a couple recent exits, he made a Final 4 and a Sweet 16 with Scottie Reynolds, an Elite 8 and Sweet 16 with the Randy Foye teams. PLUS, Wright produces contenders every single year. Mick has produced one team in 12 years that was even favored to reach the second weekend. Acting like Cronin is suddenly going to start producing top 10 teams every other year is pure lunacy...

yea... he had a stretch like early Huggins years before having a stretch like the late Huggins years. What he did was keep putting together top of the bracket teams, where eventually even with the randomness of the NCAA tournament he was bound to break through.

This was really Mick's first top of the bracket type team. If he can have more top of the bracket type teams, UC will break through sooner or later. If we go back to 6-11 type seeds UC will probably make an occasional run but never be a real threat.
 
03-21-2018 12:08 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
Lets just hypothetically say last year's team had beaten UCLA and lost to UK, and the Sean Kilpatrick team that lost to Harvard, had made the Sweet 16 as well... Is UC really any different today? Fans might perceive things as being better because most fans are so tournament centered in their evaluation, but is the program really in any better shape?

The key is not letting these protected seed, contender type teams be a rarity. So far it has been. If we can't build on this and have more teams that are true contenders it may be time to move on. There are no excuses anymore. We need to see more teams like this. If we do we'll break through eventually, if we don't...we may need to look elsewhere.
 
03-21-2018 12:14 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
Huggins in the last 9 seasons has made a final four and 3 sweet 16... I think with less talent and worse teams than some of those UC teams that ended up losing early. I don't think it's because Huggins is a better coach now... I don't think it's because he was a big time coach in the early to mid 90s, then fell off then got back to being a big time coach. There is just an element of randomness to March. Build top of the bracket type teams and you can beat that randomness far more often.
 
03-21-2018 12:17 PM
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jarr Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years)
(03-21-2018 12:08 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 11:59 AM)JFlight21 Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 11:53 AM)jarr Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 11:23 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This is only Villanova's second sweet 16 in the last decade. Until this year they'd made the same amount of sweet 16s as UC in the last 10 seasons. The difference is Villanova has been a legitimate final four and championship contender even in those years they bounced early and one of those years they took full advantage and won the entire thing. Crazy stuff happens. Several of those Nova teams bounced in the second round were top 5-10 teams... Put yourself in position to make a run and you'll eventually break through.

The other thing is Jay Wright has enough collateral to offset a couple early exits. Someone mentioned earlier how UNC got bounced early this year. Well they just one a title and were in the title the year before. They also have a top 5 recruiting class coming in. Roy W has collateral.

I agree that one year shouldn't be everything, but trends over 5-10 years. Since 1996, we have received 7 top 4 protected seeds, and not once in those years ha e we advanced out of the 1st weekend? 6nof those were eith Huggins, but Mick has implemented on alot ot similar coaching philosophies as Huggs. That's 0-7, and not a good trend. The only 2 seasons we made it to the sweet 16, were the result of a broken bracket in 2001, and poor shooting, overrated FSUnin 2012. There has to be more to this than simply bad luck.

Yeah the argument about Jay Wright and Villanova is d*mb as sh*t, frankly. Even before he had a couple recent exits, he made a Final 4 and a Sweet 16 with Scottie Reynolds, an Elite 8 and Sweet 16 with the Randy Foye teams. PLUS, Wright produces contenders every single year. Mick has produced one team in 12 years that was even favored to reach the second weekend. Acting like Cronin is suddenly going to start producing top 10 teams every other year is pure lunacy...

yea... he had a stretch like early Huggins years before having a stretch like the late Huggins years. What he did was keep putting together top of the bracket teams, where eventually even with the randomness of the NCAA tournament he was bound to break through.

This was really Mick's first top of the bracket type team. If he can have more top of the bracket type teams, UC will break through sooner or later. If we go back to 6-11 type seeds UC will probably make an occasional run but never be a real threat.

Mark, I feel like you dont really put stock into some of the human elements to the game, like confidence, momentum, basketball IQ, etc. There is absolutely a reason certain teams(in all sports), tend to have disappointing post season results while others always seem to exceed expectations on the big stage. I am not sure it can be quantified the way you are trying to do so. There is a reason Marvin is 0-7 in the playoffs, and it is more than bad luck. I also believe the same can be applied to our 0-7 record in advancing to weekend 2, with a top 4 seed. Luck plays into some of this, but not all of it.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2018 12:18 PM by jarr.)
03-21-2018 12:18 PM
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