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RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
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Yu-Es-Em Offline
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RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
This list shows us going 49-5 and our RPI only being 27. Is this accurate?
RPI Prediction
03-20-2018 03:55 PM
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usm99 Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
(03-20-2018 03:55 PM)Yu-Es-Em Wrote:  This list shows us going 49-5 and our RPI only being 27. Is this accurate?
RPI Prediction

Considering we are 14-4 now I seriously doubt we finish the season winning 35 of our last 36 games
03-20-2018 04:04 PM
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Reggie Favre Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
(03-20-2018 03:55 PM)Yu-Es-Em Wrote:  This list shows us going 49-5 and our RPI only being 27. Is this accurate?
RPI Prediction

its a prediction, so its impossible to know if its accurate until the end of the season. but seriously, it could be accurate, it may not be. its impossible to figure, bc our RPI isnt dependent on our record alone. it also depends on our opponent's records and our opponent's opponents records. so if we went 49-5, maybe our RPI is higher, maybe it is lower - depends on other factors.
03-20-2018 04:09 PM
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Yu-Es-Em Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
I'm saying, hypothetically, if we go 49-5 I sure hope our RPI is better than 27. I was concerned RPI 27 is our peak this year. Like Reggie said, its really impossible to tell. In hind sight that was a dumb question.
03-20-2018 06:08 PM
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eaglenjxn Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
(03-20-2018 03:55 PM)Yu-Es-Em Wrote:  This list shows us going 49-5 and our RPI only being 27. Is this accurate?
RPI Prediction

RPI not reliable now; therefore, predictions based on RPI are not reliable.
03-20-2018 06:56 PM
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shiftyeagle Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
Did they predict we would win tonight?

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03-20-2018 07:10 PM
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SouthernMiss3613 Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
No way we only lose 1 more regular season game. I predict at least 5 more losses.
03-20-2018 11:30 PM
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BeagleUSM Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
Boyd's World has put out their first needs report of 2018. Still early, but it doesn't look great for USM.

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

This says we need to go 32-3 or 33-2 (!!!) to get in the top 16 RPI. That's why I said I was very skeptical of this team being in the mix to host a regional. Boyd says 27-8 or or 28-7 to get in the top 32 RPI (safe at-large range). 24-11 or 25-10 to get in the top 45 (bubble at-large range).

24-11 or 25-10 gets us to 39 or 40 wins (39-15 or 40-14 record) which is what I said a few weeks ago would probably need to happen for us to feel decent about an at-large bid. 42-12 or 43-11 probably makes us a safe at-large team (#2 seed somewhere). 47-8 or 48-7 would give us a chance to host, according to this projection.

Its quite possible that our SOS could be sub-150 by the end of the year. It's pretty much guaranteed that it'll be sub-100. Turrible.
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2018 12:14 AM by BeagleUSM.)
03-21-2018 12:06 AM
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shiftyeagle Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
"If" we win 40 games we will make it. That being said, we really need to start scheduling some decent teams OOC.

I'm not saying to do what Rice does every year, but there are plenty of average to above average regional teams that would be candidates. I'd also love to renew the ECU rivalry every year. A series with ULL and ECU every year would be a great thing imo.
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2018 07:52 AM by shiftyeagle.)
03-21-2018 07:52 AM
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Black Diamond Reb Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
(03-21-2018 12:06 AM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  I'm very skeptical of this team being in the mix to host a regional.

Oh Dear.
03-21-2018 07:55 AM
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EagNBran Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
(03-21-2018 07:55 AM)Black Diamond Reb Wrote:  
(03-21-2018 12:06 AM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  I'm very skeptical of this team being in the mix to host a regional.

Oh Dear.


This pretty much solidifies we’ll host.
03-21-2018 08:06 AM
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SouthernMiss3613 Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
(03-21-2018 07:52 AM)shiftyeagle Wrote:  "If" we win 40 games we will make it. That being said, we really need to start scheduling some decent teams OOC.

I'm not saying to do what Rice does every year, but there are plenty of average to above average regional teams that would be candidates. I'd also love to renew the ECU rivalry every year. A series with ULL and ECU every year would be a great thing imo.

I bet USA would sign a series with us as well.
03-21-2018 09:07 AM
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BeagleUSM Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
South Alabama is a perfect midweek team. Move that to the weekend and you have to fill that spot with a bad RPI team or 2.

We used to play ULL yearly but we dropped that in 2015 so we could play Oakland. That worked out well, didn’t it? ULL isn’t good this year but would help us out RPI most seasons. So would ECU.

Copying my post from another forum (my OOC solution):

- Group 1: top 25 power conference team in a home/home or single road series if they refuse to come to Hattiesburg (very tough to get to Hattiesburg with teams flying commercial)
- Group 2: top-flight non-power conference program home/home (Houston, DBU, ECU, ULL, etc).
- Group 3: guarantee series at home vs a decent top 100ish mid-major in the southeast (Mercer, UNCG, Tennessee Tech, etc) or top-flight snowbird (UConn, St. John’s). In years the group 2 series is at home, we could play in a decent early-season tournament on the road instead.
- Group 4: a GOOD low-major snowbird. Wright State, UIC, Bryant, Kent State, etc.
03-21-2018 09:53 AM
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SouthernMiss3613 Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
(03-21-2018 09:53 AM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  South Alabama is a perfect midweek team. Move that to the weekend and you have to fill that spot with a bad RPI team or 2.

We used to play ULL yearly but we dropped that in 2015 so we could play Oakland. That worked out well, didn’t it? ULL isn’t good this year but would help us out RPI most seasons. So would ECU.

Copying my post from another forum (my OOC solution):

- Group 1: top 25 power conference team in a home/home or single road series if they refuse to come to Hattiesburg (very tough to get to Hattiesburg with teams flying commercial)
- Group 2: top-flight non-power conference program home/home (Houston, DBU, ECU, ULL, etc).
- Group 3: guarantee series at home vs a decent top 100ish mid-major in the southeast (Mercer, UNCG, Tennessee Tech, etc) or top-flight snowbird (UConn, St. John’s). In years the group 2 series is at home, we could play in a decent early-season tournament on the road instead.
- Group 4: a GOOD low-major snowbird. Wright State, UIC, Bryant, Kent State, etc.

Yeah, but wouldn't you say 3 games against USA is better than 1.
03-21-2018 10:00 AM
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BeagleUSM Offline
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RE: RPI end-of-year prediction WarrenNolan.com
(03-21-2018 10:00 AM)SouthernMiss3613 Wrote:  Yeah, but wouldn't you say 3 games against USA is better than 1.

We play them twice.

Take USA out of the midweek rotation and you have to fill that spot with someone like Nicholls. Would rather keep the midweek series going and play another good team on the weekend.
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2018 10:11 AM by BeagleUSM.)
03-21-2018 10:11 AM
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