This could get ugly quick.
Here's the current situation. There are four major candidates, and the election is won on a simple plurality.
Here's the lineup
1) Obrador (called "Amlo" by most Mexicans). Leader of the Moreno party. Running in alliance with Mexico's Workers (Communist/Maoist), and a evangelical Christian Party (Encuentro Social). Obrador is a far left populist. He's bad news. He's currently standing between 35-40 percent in the polls (higher in some polls). He is a LEFTIST. Not in the sense of "Barack Obama is a leftist" BS, but a real leftist. Basically combine Donald Trump's vulgar campaigning and calls for popular revolt with economic policies slightly to the right of Hugo Chavez.
2) Ricardo Anaya. Leader of the Center Right PAN Party (That's the party of Vincente Fox). They are in coalition with the Left Wing PRD, and the Social Democratic Party - the Movimiento Social. Basically, this coalition is a 'stop Obrador' coalition. In other words, the PRD and Movimiento feel that Obrador is so dangerous that they're willing to support a right wing party to try and stop Obrador. It would be the equivalent of Bernie Sanders endorsing George W Bush for President. Anaya has been hit with some corruption scandals and is around 20-25 percent in the polls.
3) Jose Meade, Leader of the incumbent PRI (Mexican Presidents cannot run for reelection). He is in coalition with the Green Party of Mexico (which is a decent sized party in Mexico) and the Centrist Nueva Allianza Party. Most Mexicans are not happy with the leadership of the current PRI President, Enrique Pena Nieto, and that hurts this group. They're sitting at around 15-20 percent in the polls. Basically, this group is reasonably consistent ideologically (Centrist). The PAN and PRI loathe each other and have been beating each other up with attacks on each other's corruption.
4) Independent Candidates. There are many, but the fly in the ointment is the candidacy of Margarita Calderon, wife of former Mexican President Felipe Calderon (who was reasonably popular). She has around 5% of the vote. Basically all of her votes would come at the expense of the PAN.
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So, as things stand right now, Obrador is looking like Mexico's next President. Mexican elections can be volatile and there's certainly the chance that the PRI and Calderon voters will just hold their nose and vote for Anaya to stop Obrador, but its looking a bit ugly right now.
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Watch this election. If Obrador wins, things could get ugly - quickly. Trump won't have to worry about cancelling NAFTA, because Obrador will do it faster than Trump, causing economic chaos in the USA. Expect zero help from Obrador's Mexico on any issue.
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Maybe we shouldn't be making life difficult for Mexico's non-Obrador poltical parties (both the PRI and the PAN are tied to NAFTA) for a few months. Deporting dreamers, trying to demolish NAFTA, and screaming about a wall might not the best idea right now. I'd argue neither are a good idea, but they're especially bad ideas until after the Mexican elections in July.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-...-election/