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MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #41
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-16-2018 09:09 PM)NotANewbie Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 09:03 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 08:33 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Just what would the MWC gain by adding those 2? UTEP brings nothing at all and NMSU does have a solid hoops program but that is it.

Travel.

-New Mexico gains and in-state rival plus UTEP not far away.

-Boise St can move to the west to play Cali and Nevada schools.

Lower travel costs help prevent poaching from the AAC. A side benefit I think is also if Colorado St/New Mexico were to go to the B12 it would be more attractive to attract Texas teams to join up with WYO, AFA, NMSU, UTEP still in the conference.


With the anemic TV contracts the Sun Belt and CUSA have received G% conferences are realizing the best source of revenue can be the NCAA Tourney credits. Look for a change to an emphasis on basketball and teams that can help conference RPI and push the conference to multiple bids.

That is the trend.

The G conferences have some advantages.

1) FBS conferences are all but guaranteed to have some sort of linear component. This is not a guarantee in this day and age for every D1 conference.

2) The amount of TV money while not P5 level provides for enough to plow back into basketball, a sport where the P5 doesn't invest too heavily because the revenue stream is limited.
03-16-2018 09:25 PM
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billings Offline
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Post: #42
MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-16-2018 04:08 PM)NoDak Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 03:49 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  By Office of President | Published March 13, 2018
Chancellor Garrey Carruthers
"While at the WAC Basketball Tournament, I met with the Presidents and Athletic Directors of the WAC schools to discuss business as well as the challenges facing the Conference regarding membership. The WAC is initiating an aggressive membership campaign. Commissioner Jeff Hurd said “something was going to happen and happen soon” regarding conference alignments and realignments. One rumor was the Mountain West would become a 16-member conference with two-8 member divisions. NMSU could come into play as a new member, along with UTEP. "

NMSU Chancellor

Very much doubt that UTEP would want to lose contact with CUSA Texas schools and go to a conference with NMSU. UTEP wouldn’t gain but would be a loser in almost all respects that matter to Presidents.


yea. didn’t work at all for tcu to lose contact and brand themselves as different.


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03-16-2018 09:58 PM
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Post: #43
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-16-2018 09:03 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 08:33 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Just what would the MWC gain by adding those 2? UTEP brings nothing at all and NMSU does have a solid hoops program but that is it.

Travel.

-New Mexico gains and in-state rival plus UTEP not far away.

-Boise St can move to the west to play Cali and Nevada schools.

Lower travel costs help prevent poaching from the AAC. A side benefit I think is also if Colorado St/New Mexico were to go to the B12 it would be more attractive to attract Texas teams to join up with WYO, AFA, NMSU, UTEP still in the conference.

I think NMSU is more valuable to New Mexico as a non-conference opponent unless the MWC goes to 9 conference games in football and 20 in basketball. As it stands UNM has to fill four non-conference dates in football and 13 in hoops and getting schools to travel to Albuquerque isn't super easy. NMSU is always going to be available to fill a slot. Adding NMSU means instead of filling three non-conference dates in football, they have to fill four.
03-16-2018 09:58 PM
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NoDak Offline
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Post: #44
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-16-2018 09:58 PM)billings Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 04:08 PM)NoDak Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 03:49 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  By Office of President | Published March 13, 2018
Chancellor Garrey Carruthers
"While at the WAC Basketball Tournament, I met with the Presidents and Athletic Directors of the WAC schools to discuss business as well as the challenges facing the Conference regarding membership. The WAC is initiating an aggressive membership campaign. Commissioner Jeff Hurd said “something was going to happen and happen soon” regarding conference alignments and realignments. One rumor was the Mountain West would become a 16-member conference with two-8 member divisions. NMSU could come into play as a new member, along with UTEP. "

NMSU Chancellor

Very much doubt that UTEP would want to lose contact with CUSA Texas schools and go to a conference with NMSU. UTEP wouldn’t gain but would be a loser in almost all respects that matter to Presidents.


yea. didn’t work at all for tcu to lose contact and brand themselves as different.


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TCU is private and has big dollar donors. UTEP needs east Texas for enrollment and recruiting and to allow alumni to go to more games. Case closed.
03-16-2018 10:13 PM
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AZcats Offline
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Post: #45
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-16-2018 09:58 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 09:03 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 08:33 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Just what would the MWC gain by adding those 2? UTEP brings nothing at all and NMSU does have a solid hoops program but that is it.

Travel.

-New Mexico gains and in-state rival plus UTEP not far away.

-Boise St can move to the west to play Cali and Nevada schools.

Lower travel costs help prevent poaching from the AAC. A side benefit I think is also if Colorado St/New Mexico were to go to the B12 it would be more attractive to attract Texas teams to join up with WYO, AFA, NMSU, UTEP still in the conference.

I think NMSU is more valuable to New Mexico as a non-conference opponent unless the MWC goes to 9 conference games in football and 20 in basketball. As it stands UNM has to fill four non-conference dates in football and 13 in hoops and getting schools to travel to Albuquerque isn't super easy. NMSU is always going to be available to fill a slot. Adding NMSU means instead of filling three non-conference dates in football, they have to fill four.

If the MW goes to 9 conference football games it will likely be a long time to come. A 9 game schedule was considered when the MW expanded to 12 teams but the 8 game schedule was agreed to because of Air Force. With a 9 game schedule, Air Force would essentially have only 1 OOC game when Army and Navy are included. Does the AAC have a similar deal with Navy?
03-16-2018 11:04 PM
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Michael in Raleigh Offline
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Post: #46
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-16-2018 10:13 PM)NoDak Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 09:58 PM)billings Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 04:08 PM)NoDak Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 03:49 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  By Office of President | Published March 13, 2018
Chancellor Garrey Carruthers
"While at the WAC Basketball Tournament, I met with the Presidents and Athletic Directors of the WAC schools to discuss business as well as the challenges facing the Conference regarding membership. The WAC is initiating an aggressive membership campaign. Commissioner Jeff Hurd said “something was going to happen and happen soon” regarding conference alignments and realignments. One rumor was the Mountain West would become a 16-member conference with two-8 member divisions. NMSU could come into play as a new member, along with UTEP. "

NMSU Chancellor

Very much doubt that UTEP would want to lose contact with CUSA Texas schools and go to a conference with NMSU. UTEP wouldn’t gain but would be a loser in almost all respects that matter to Presidents.


yea. didn’t work at all for tcu to lose contact and brand themselves as different.


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TCU is private and has big dollar donors. UTEP needs east Texas for enrollment and recruiting and to allow alumni to go to more games. Case closed.

It made sense for UTEP to be in C-USA when it still had Houston and SMU, not to mention Memphis, ECU, UCF, Tulsa, etc. Now it makes more sense for UTEP to be in a league with it's historical rivals from the old WAC: New Mexico, Col. State, Air Force, Wyoming, San Diego State, Hawaii. UTSA and North Texas don't carry the same meaning for alumni, and the feeling seems to be mutual.
03-16-2018 11:04 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
I think Carruthers lost his mind on the 4th sentence. The first three were fine and accurate. But why he threw out such a long shot rumor is beyond me. (you should look at Doug Martin's twitter feed @dougmartinnmsu -- It sounds like some serious frustration going on there at NMSU)

The MWC will add Gonzaga immediately for next year (if possible they can get the details in time) and stop there. If a deal can be made with BYU next year they will bring them in as well (and as has been noted the obstacles are many on both sides). And the value stops there. That is obvious, and not much to debate.

But on Carruthers blurb, I think we need to focus on the first two sentences about the WAC looking for another school, and forget the pipe dream -- desperation me thinks.
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2018 02:55 AM by Stugray2.)
03-17-2018 12:29 AM
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Michael in Raleigh Offline
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Post: #48
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-17-2018 12:29 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I think Carruthers lost his mind on the 3rd sentence. The first two were fine and accurate. But why he threw out such a long shot rumor is beyond me. (you should look at Doug Martin's twitter feed @dougmartinnmsu -- It sounds like some serious frustration going on there at NMSU)

The MWC will add Gonzaga immediately for next year (if possible they can get the details in time) and stop there. If a deal can be made with BYU next year they will bring them in as well (and as has been noted the obstacles are many on both sides). And the value stops there. That is obvious, and not much to debate.

But on Carruthers blurb, I think we need to focus on the first two sentences about the WAC looking for another school, and forget the pipe dream -- desperation me thinks.

You're not kidding.

https://twitter.com/dougmartinnmsu/statu...42848?s=20
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2018 01:00 AM by Michael in Raleigh.)
03-17-2018 12:59 AM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #49
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-16-2018 06:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I will believe it when I see something more than that.

BUT I will say Craig Thompson seems to be willing to do the unexpected.

To me, the logical play here is just taking Gonzaga and call it a day.

Going to 14 with NMSU and UTEP shifts Boise to the west even if Gonzaga comes in all sports, as long as Hawaii remains football only.

If you are contemplating a television deal that involves weeknight games, more teams mean you can insist on restrictions on the number of weeknights a school has to host.

Unless ESPN is looking to give BYU a haircut I don't think Gonzaga fleeing WCC is leverage enough on its own to call BYU's hand. BYU was all set to join the WAC until WCC got interested. If TV is taking a beating (contract expires after 2019 football?) then sure maybe BYU feels this can work.

My impression of UTEP is a very conflicted program. Playing on the other side of Texas to stay connected with alums is important but (again my impression from occasionally skimming their board) is their perfect world would be a conference with teams in Houston, San Antonio, DFW, New Mexico, AFA, Colorado State and Wyoming.

I don't think MWC can give UTEP 100% of what they want and maybe can't give UTEP 1% of what they want (it UTEP can't get the votes to get in).

Purely spitballing while taking into account that MWC under Thompson has "broken" the rules of conventional wisdom before, how about this?

MWC "recreates" the Mtn Network as primary rights holder and is a digital network. The network could then sublease content (hello BYUtv and conventional networks).

Or maybe when Thompson talks of going digital he is talking ESPN+. The Chicago Fire of MLS sold their home territory broadcast rights to ESPN+ for at least one million per year. The Fire averaged just over 17,000 per game for 17 home games last year. Given that it only covers games not selected nationally 30 games for the Fire are worth about $33,500 each. 97 football games (on average in a 16 team league) and 255 basketball games could very easily be worth 4X the value of the Sun Belt which only has around 61 football games and around 161 basketball games and is apparently getting just under a half million per for the early years. That would put you at around $2 million per school.

If (huge if) ESPN really wants to make ESPN+ work, MWC is a great choice to drive subscriptions because you've got some schools with great followings and four more fan bases (especially if one is BYU) can accelerate adoption.

Again, I'm buying that MWC wants more than to just add Gonzaga when I see better evidence but the idea that ESPN would use the MWC to drive subscriptions makes a lot of sense

I doubt the MWC goes to 16 in football. They may be going to 16 in all sports as a way to reduce travel costs. In that model, I can see UTEP or NMSU if BYU came including football. If no BYU then perhaps all sports but football.
03-17-2018 01:21 AM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #50
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-17-2018 12:29 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I think Carruthers lost his mind on the 3rd sentence. The first two were fine and accurate. But why he threw out such a long shot rumor is beyond me. (you should look at Doug Martin's twitter feed @dougmartinnmsu -- It sounds like some serious frustration going on there at NMSU)

The MWC will add Gonzaga immediately for next year (if possible they can get the details in time) and stop there. If a deal can be made with BYU next year they will bring them in as well (and as has been noted the obstacles are many on both sides). And the value stops there. That is obvious, and not much to debate.

But on Carruthers blurb, I think we need to focus on the first two sentences about the WAC looking for another school, and forget the pipe dream -- desperation me thinks.

Somebody has to come with BYU and some of it depends on which side BYU wants to join. The logical choice would be the East but who else do you add.

Most think UTSA makes the most sense but then does BYU go west or do they switch Boise west? 16 could happen for Olympics with another WCC team and NMState as a bone to New Mexico.
03-17-2018 01:29 AM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #51
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
Sactowndog,

I just don't think BYU will be coming. I do believe they will have conversations all year long after Gonzaga moves, especially as they head into winter and work with ESPN and maybe CBS, who will be working with the MWC to figure out the next 6 to 8 year TV deals. This will shelve the WCC expansion efforts for a year as they have to wait out BYU's exploration to know what the configuration of the league will be (is it 9 looking for a 10th or 8 looking for possibly two schools, a 9th and a 10th? And do they need to select someone that BYU approves of?)

In the end I think the growing shortness of distance to the end of the Big 12 Grant of Rights and Oklahoma's realignment decision makes it difficult for BYU to commit to a MWC path right away. In three or four years as the picture going forward becomes clearer I think they might decide the B12 path is closed and they should get more serious in talks with the MWC. Money is not a decisive factor, although football independence pays better than MWC membership for all sports, despite the smaller playoff payout. I do think a scheduling agreement will come out of it initially, football kicking in perhaps in 2022, but basketball maybe earlier as a sort of mutual kicking the tires.

Now were BYU to decide to come into the MWC, and the MWC were willing to put off Football membership decision another 4 or so years (given the contractual issues BYU would face), then I am not at all sure the MWC would add anyone for Olympics. They'd live with 13. If odd was a bad enough problem, they might invite a Baseball affiliate, a Softball affiliate, and a Women's Volleyball affiliate (if they can be found) and just live with 13 in Basketball. Since the individual sports are just end of season meets, you really don't care how many you have. Now if and when BYU finally joins in Football, only then would you really have to get serious about a 14th member - realistically that six years out in the future, and the B12 realignment could change everything by then.
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2018 03:00 AM by Stugray2.)
03-17-2018 02:30 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #52
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
If BYU comes to the MWC Boise St will shift the the West and BYU and UTEP/Rice/NMSU will join the Mountain.

Boise has more history with Fresno, Hawaii, Nevada, and San Jose St from their WAC days and BYU has history with instate Utah St and the front range schools who founded the WAC and later MWC.
03-17-2018 09:28 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #53
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-16-2018 06:12 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 05:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 04:11 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 04:08 PM)NoDak Wrote:  [quote='MinerInWisconsin' pid='15181471' dateline='1521233381']
By Office of President | Published March 13, 2018
Chancellor Garrey Carruthers
"While at the WAC Basketball Tournament, I met with the Presidents and Athletic Directors of the WAC schools to discuss business as well as the challenges facing the Conference regarding membership. The WAC is initiating an aggressive membership campaign. Commissioner Jeff Hurd said “something was going to happen and happen soon” regarding conference alignments and realignments. One rumor was the Mountain West would become a 16-member conference with two-8 member divisions. NMSU could come into play as a new member, along with UTEP. "

NMSU Chancellor

Very much doubt that UTEP would want to lose contact with CUSA Texas schools and go to a conference with NMSU. UTEP wouldn’t gain but would be a loser in almost all respects.

Disagree 100%
UTEP would give both testicles to leave the bohemith CUSA for the MWC

“They would leave for an even bigger behemoth in the MWC?”


Ok...yeah Mountain time zone school UTEP would decide to stay in CUSA and play in a league with Old Dominion, Charlotte and Marshall instead of their former WAC conference mates UNM, CSU, UNLV, SDSU if given the choice.
Ok Ken D. Sure.

If UTEP were to leave CUSA for a 16 team MWC, it would be for some reason other than that CUSA at 14 schools is a "behemoth". It would be because the MWC is a more natural region for them.
03-17-2018 09:30 AM
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bluesox Offline
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Post: #54
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
Going to 14 with Gonzaga, utep and nm state makes sense to create to 2 nice 7 team divisons. Yet, not sure it makes sense To carve up the pie more and getting more teams in the NCAA tourney.
03-17-2018 09:38 AM
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RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
If the MWC were to expand to 16, and as a result they got one additional NCAAT bid every year, the net revenue to current member schools, before any additional TV money, would be reduced by about $400K a year. Does anybody think that adding UTEP and NMSU would add enough value to a network to offset the cost of dividing the pie two more ways?

A new TV deal would have to be 50% greater than the current one just to break even.
03-17-2018 09:42 AM
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RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-17-2018 02:30 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Sactowndog,

I just don't think BYU will be coming. I do believe they will have conversations all year long after Gonzaga moves, especially as they head into winter and work with ESPN and maybe CBS, who will be working with the MWC to figure out the next 6 to 8 year TV deals. This will shelve the WCC expansion efforts for a year as they have to wait out BYU's exploration to know what the configuration of the league will be (is it 9 looking for a 10th or 8 looking for possibly two schools, a 9th and a 10th? And do they need to select someone that BYU approves of?)

In the end I think the growing shortness of distance to the end of the Big 12 Grant of Rights and Oklahoma's realignment decision makes it difficult for BYU to commit to a MWC path right away. In three or four years as the picture going forward becomes clearer I think they might decide the B12 path is closed and they should get more serious in talks with the MWC. Money is not a decisive factor, although football independence pays better than MWC membership for all sports, despite the smaller playoff payout. I do think a scheduling agreement will come out of it initially, football kicking in perhaps in 2022, but basketball maybe earlier as a sort of mutual kicking the tires.

Now were BYU to decide to come into the MWC, and the MWC were willing to put off Football membership decision another 4 or so years (given the contractual issues BYU would face), then I am not at all sure the MWC would add anyone for Olympics. They'd live with 13. If odd was a bad enough problem, they might invite a Baseball affiliate, a Softball affiliate, and a Women's Volleyball affiliate (if they can be found) and just live with 13 in Basketball. Since the individual sports are just end of season meets, you really don't care how many you have. Now if and when BYU finally joins in Football, only then would you really have to get serious about a 14th member - realistically that six years out in the future, and the B12 realignment could change everything by then.

I don’t think Gonzaga is coming either. I think they used the MWC and it’s less than intelligent commissioner to extract concessions from the WCC.
03-17-2018 10:23 AM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #57
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-17-2018 09:28 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If BYU comes to the MWC Boise St will shift the the West and BYU and UTEP/Rice/NMSU will join the Mountain.

Boise has more history with Fresno, Hawaii, Nevada, and San Jose St from their WAC days and BYU has history with instate Utah St and the front range schools who founded the WAC and later MWC.

BYU has historically wanted ties to California.
03-17-2018 10:25 AM
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Post: #58
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-17-2018 01:21 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 06:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I will believe it when I see something more than that.

BUT I will say Craig Thompson seems to be willing to do the unexpected.

To me, the logical play here is just taking Gonzaga and call it a day.

Going to 14 with NMSU and UTEP shifts Boise to the west even if Gonzaga comes in all sports, as long as Hawaii remains football only.

If you are contemplating a television deal that involves weeknight games, more teams mean you can insist on restrictions on the number of weeknights a school has to host.

Unless ESPN is looking to give BYU a haircut I don't think Gonzaga fleeing WCC is leverage enough on its own to call BYU's hand. BYU was all set to join the WAC until WCC got interested. If TV is taking a beating (contract expires after 2019 football?) then sure maybe BYU feels this can work.

My impression of UTEP is a very conflicted program. Playing on the other side of Texas to stay connected with alums is important but (again my impression from occasionally skimming their board) is their perfect world would be a conference with teams in Houston, San Antonio, DFW, New Mexico, AFA, Colorado State and Wyoming.

I don't think MWC can give UTEP 100% of what they want and maybe can't give UTEP 1% of what they want (it UTEP can't get the votes to get in).

Purely spitballing while taking into account that MWC under Thompson has "broken" the rules of conventional wisdom before, how about this?

MWC "recreates" the Mtn Network as primary rights holder and is a digital network. The network could then sublease content (hello BYUtv and conventional networks).

Or maybe when Thompson talks of going digital he is talking ESPN+. The Chicago Fire of MLS sold their home territory broadcast rights to ESPN+ for at least one million per year. The Fire averaged just over 17,000 per game for 17 home games last year. Given that it only covers games not selected nationally 30 games for the Fire are worth about $33,500 each. 97 football games (on average in a 16 team league) and 255 basketball games could very easily be worth 4X the value of the Sun Belt which only has around 61 football games and around 161 basketball games and is apparently getting just under a half million per for the early years. That would put you at around $2 million per school.

If (huge if) ESPN really wants to make ESPN+ work, MWC is a great choice to drive subscriptions because you've got some schools with great followings and four more fan bases (especially if one is BYU) can accelerate adoption.

Again, I'm buying that MWC wants more than to just add Gonzaga when I see better evidence but the idea that ESPN would use the MWC to drive subscriptions makes a lot of sense

I doubt the MWC goes to 16 in football. They may be going to 16 in all sports as a way to reduce travel costs. In that model, I can see UTEP or NMSU if BYU came including football. If no BYU then perhaps all sports but football.

I can't see 16 viable without BYU. At 16 you really have to have a star program in each division.
03-17-2018 10:33 AM
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bluesox Offline
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Post: #59
RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
San Jose state to the big west makes a lot sense with them dropping football.
03-17-2018 10:46 AM
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RE: MWC to 16? NMSU and UTEP in play?
(03-16-2018 11:04 PM)AZcats Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 09:58 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 09:03 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(03-16-2018 08:33 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Just what would the MWC gain by adding those 2? UTEP brings nothing at all and NMSU does have a solid hoops program but that is it.

Travel.

-New Mexico gains and in-state rival plus UTEP not far away.

-Boise St can move to the west to play Cali and Nevada schools.

Lower travel costs help prevent poaching from the AAC. A side benefit I think is also if Colorado St/New Mexico were to go to the B12 it would be more attractive to attract Texas teams to join up with WYO, AFA, NMSU, UTEP still in the conference.

I think NMSU is more valuable to New Mexico as a non-conference opponent unless the MWC goes to 9 conference games in football and 20 in basketball. As it stands UNM has to fill four non-conference dates in football and 13 in hoops and getting schools to travel to Albuquerque isn't super easy. NMSU is always going to be available to fill a slot. Adding NMSU means instead of filling three non-conference dates in football, they have to fill four.

If the MW goes to 9 conference football games it will likely be a long time to come. A 9 game schedule was considered when the MW expanded to 12 teams but the 8 game schedule was agreed to because of Air Force. With a 9 game schedule, Air Force would essentially have only 1 OOC game when Army and Navy are included. Does the AAC have a similar deal with Navy?

I would imagine Navy would fight hard against the AAC ever adopting a nine-game schedule because as it is, they only have one OOC slot per non-Hawaii year (since Army, Air Force and Notre Dame are permanent opponents).
03-17-2018 11:40 AM
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