Here's the statistical notes for UTSA compared to us. USM stats first followed by UTSA:

Record: 12-4 to 7-8
Batting: .297 to .246
Runs: 142 to 75
HR: 16 to 10
SB: 15-20 to 19-25
Sac bunts: 8 to 7
K/BB/HBP: 144/83/22 to 105/50/11

Pitching wise:
Innings pitched: 143 to 133
BA allowed: .253 to .223
Runs: 72 to 74
HR: 9 to 5
K/BB/HBP: 151/45/17 to 119/71/17
SB: 12-15 to 19-24
Errors made: 18 to 25

Hitting wise UTSA top hitters statistically are: (number in parenthesis is batting order from previous 2 games)
(1) #5 Arias - .323, 13 R, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 4-6 SB
(6) #13 Keng - .313, 3 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3-4 SB
(2) #23 Stacy - .289, 10 R, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 4-4 SB
(5) #34 Brookover - .268, 5 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 0-0 SB
(3) #21 Bowles - .263, 7 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 2-3 SB, 2 sac bunts
(4) #33 Beam - .260, 3 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 0-0 SB

Pitching wise I'm not sure of exact rotation but below are guys who've made weekend starts recently. Relief pitching wise they've got 3 players with 1 save each that accounts for their 3 saves on the season so I'm guessing they are similar to us in that it's a closer by situation. Once I see they've posted their weekend rotation I will update. Interesting note..... their starting pitchers have allowed only 1 of their 5 HR and that was in their game Wednesday game this week with a pitcher making his first appearance/start of the season.

#19 RHP Dressler - 2-1, 2.67 (4 app, 4 start), 27.0 IP, 23 H, 8 ER, 16 K, 10 BB, 0 HR, .242 BA against
#20 RHP Patel - 1-0, 1.12 (4 app, 2 start), 16.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 14 K, 3 BB, 0 HR, .148 BA against
#10 RHP Kirby - 0-2, 3.46 (3 app, 3 start), 13.0 IP, 13 H, 5 ER, 20 K, 7 BB, 0 HR, .245 BA against

Patel, Dressler, Kirby is the UT-Armadillo rotation.

Thanks for doing these 99!

Since tomorrow begins the conference season, anyone want to take a guess at the O/U on CUSA wins? I'll set it at 24.5. Basically, do we at least match last year's total of 25?

I'll say we finish just under at 24 conference wins. Top 3 series that concern me, in order: 1) at FAU, 2) LaTech, 3) Rice (if they get some of their injured players back).

FAU next week in Boca worries me because it looks like they can really pitch it. Their Friday guy is a really good lefty and their Saturday starter is putting up some unreal numbers as well. However, their offense is near the bottom of the league in most categories and they lost 3/4 at the only team they've played with a pulse (Oregon).

Rice could be dangerous if they get back some of their injured players. They'll get Andrew Dunlap (powerful bat from the right side) soon but still don't have Dominic DiCaprio (probably their best hitter), Addison Moss (their #2 starter), or Ricardo Salinas (their #3 starter). Right now their weekend rotation is weak once you get past Canterino.

LaTech is a little ways away so I'm too worried about them right now but they are off to a pretty good start. Have yet to lose a series (split 4 at Pepperdine opening weekend) and took 2/3 at a strong field in Frisco (beat A&M and Cal). I really didn't expect much from them this year because they lost so much from their 2017 team. Burroughs loaded up on JUCOs to ease the transition. Their offense isn't as strong as some previous Tech teams but the numbers for their rotation are off the charts.

As for the rest of the conference, it should be a cakewalk. Wouldn't rule out us throwing up a clunker somewhere in CUSA play (*cough* at Marshall *cough*), but we're just on another level compared to most of our conference mates. Worst-case in CUSA play is something like 20-10 or 21-9. Best-case is 26-4 or 27-3. I'll split the difference and call for a 24-6 CUSA record.

(03-16-2018 12:04 AM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  Since tomorrow begins the conference season, anyone want to take a guess at the O/U on CUSA wins? I'll set it at 24.5. Basically, do we at least match last year's total of 25?

I'll say we finish just under at 24 conference wins. Top 3 series that concern me, in order: 1) at FAU, 2) LaTech, 3) Rice (if they get some of their injured players back).

FAU next week in Boca worries me because it looks like they can really pitch it. Their Friday guy is a really good lefty and their Saturday starter is putting up some unreal numbers as well. However, their offense is near the bottom of the league in most categories and they lost 3/4 at the only team they've played with a pulse (Oregon).

Rice could be dangerous if they get back some of their injured players. They'll get Andrew Dunlap (powerful bat from the right side) soon but still don't have Dominic DiCaprio (probably their best hitter), Addison Moss (their #2 starter), or Ricardo Salinas (their #3 starter). Right now their weekend rotation is weak once you get past Canterino.

LaTech is a little ways away so I'm too worried about them right now but they are off to a pretty good start. Have yet to lose a series (split 4 at Pepperdine opening weekend) and took 2/3 at a strong field in Frisco (beat A&M and Cal). I really didn't expect much from them this year because they lost so much from their 2017 team. Burroughs loaded up on JUCOs to ease the transition. Their offense isn't as strong as some previous Tech teams but the numbers for their rotation are off the charts.

As for the rest of the conference, it should be a cakewalk. Wouldn't rule out us throwing up a clunker somewhere in CUSA play (*cough* at Marshall *cough*), but we're just on another level compared to most of our conference mates. Worst-case in CUSA play is something like 20-10 or 21-9. Best-case is 26-4 or 27-3. I'll split the difference and call for a 24-6 CUSA record.

I'll go with 21-22 CUSA wins just for the simple fact it's gonna be difficult to run the table like we did last season. It's promising now seeing Irby coming around but on the flip side LeeBo has seen his batting average go from .320 or so in week 3 to now it's .218 in week 5.

On another note it's gonna be difficult to get all 3 in this weekend. The current forecast has 50% or more rain until 8 pm. Tomorrow is looking a littler better as the only time the rain is over 50% is from noon until 3. Sunday's forecast is thunderstorms in the morning then cloudy in the afternoon with thunderstorms likely. With Sunday being a 1:00 pm start hopefully that buys some time meaning UTSA doesn't have an early flight home.

w/o colt, I go under....

however, the way Powell is currently pitching, if Berry moves him to Sunday, it's plausible we see 25-26....

UTSA's game notes:
http://goutsa.com/documents/2018/3/15//U...es_USM.pdf

a few things that jump out to me pitching wise on UTSA:
starting pitchers: 68.1 IP, 3-5 (W-L) , 2.90, 22 ER, 63 Hits, 28 BB, 61 K, 1 HR, 6 HBP, .244 BA allowed
relief pitchers: 64.2 IP, 4-3 (W-L), 4.18, 30 ER, 45 hits, 43 BB, 58 K, 4 HR, 11 HBP, .198 BA allowed

their SPs have a better ERA than their bullpen but allows a higher opponent batting avg.
thier RPs have a high walk rate/HBP and ERA but don't give up many hits/batting avg

Hitting wise trends:
starters have 470 AB while their bench only has 22 AB with no SB attempts or sacrifices

I'm going the super optimistic approach and I'll say 27. We win every series, dropping a game against FAU, Tech, and UAB.

(03-16-2018 09:23 AM)EagNBran Wrote:  I'm going the super optimistic approach and I'll say 27. We win every series, dropping a game against FAU, Tech, and UAB.

So we are going to sweep Rice?

3/3 UTSA
2/3 at FAU
2/3 Rice (this could easily be a sweep if Moss and Salinas are out)
3/3 WKU
2/3 at FIU
3/3 MTSU
3/3 at ODU
3/3 at UAB
2/3 Tech
1/3 at Marshall (annual TTT series)

24-6.

Still not sure about Sundays.

(03-16-2018 11:36 AM)shiftyeagle Wrote:  

(03-16-2018 09:23 AM)EagNBran Wrote:  I'm going the super optimistic approach and I'll say 27. We win every series, dropping a game against FAU, Tech, and UAB.

So we are going to sweep Rice?

Yus

(03-16-2018 11:13 AM)eagle04 Wrote:  

Gonna suck for both teams' rightfielder. When we pull the tarp all that water is gonna turn that area into a pond/lake.

(03-16-2018 01:46 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  3/3 UTSA
2/3 at FAU
2/3 Rice (this could easily be a sweep if Moss and Salinas are out)
3/3 WKU
2/3 at FIU
3/3 MTSU
3/3 at FIU
3/3 at UAB
2/3 Tech
1/3 at Marshall (annual TTT series)

24-6.

3/3 at ODU, not FIU. Had FIU listed twice.

(03-16-2018 02:38 PM)shiftyeagle Wrote:  Still not sure about Sundays.

Carroll has done decently (especially compared to what he had last year), but I'm still not sold on him in the weekend rotation. He threw too many pitches last week against Georgia Southern ... 74 in 4 innings.

I think they go with Powell midweek until the South Alabama game, and then move him to Sundays (similar to Braley last year). If it was up to me, I'd go ahead and make the switch now.

(03-16-2018 01:46 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  3/3 UTSA
2/3 at FAU
2/3 Rice (this could easily be a sweep if Moss and Salinas are out)
3/3 WKU
2/3 at FIU
3/3 MTSU
3/3 at ODU
3/3 at UAB
2/3 Tech
1/3 at Marshall (annual TTT series)

24-6.

First pitch from Hattiesburg is at 1.

Lineup:

1) Montenegro - LF
2) Guidry - 2B
3) Reynolds - 3B
4) Wallner - CF
5) Slater - 1B
6) Keating - DH
7) Donaldson - C
8) Irby - RF
9) Boyd - SS

Sandlin pitching.

Video: http://edge.sidearmstreaming.com/somiss_1/playlist.m3u8
Audio: https://tunein.com/radio/Southern-Miss-I...k-s230329/
Stats: http://www.southernmiss.com/gametracker/...t=mbasebl&

strong lineup. if Irby continues to hit, we will be very hard for anyone to beat.

(03-17-2018 12:12 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  First pitch from Hattiesburg is at 1.

Lineup:

1) Montenegro - LF
2) Guidry - 2B
3) Reynolds - 3B
4) Wallner - CF
5) Slater - 1B
6) Keating - DH
7) Donaldson - C
8) Irby - RF
9) Boyd - SS

Sandlin pitching.

Video: http://edge.sidearmstreaming.com/somiss_1/playlist.m3u8
Audio: https://tunein.com/radio/Southern-Miss-I...k-s230329/
Stats: http://www.southernmiss.com/gametracker/...t=mbasebl&

I like that lineup top to bottom...that's pretty strong at the bottom