This is an old article from AL.com, but I honestly can't remember reading it.

SEC Expansion: Why the Big 12 is the key to the SEC adding more schools

I did find a couple of interesting points to glean so let's see what everyone thinks...

Quote:But if the big conference realignment period taught us anything, it's that stability can be fleeting. "I think it's pretty stable right now," says Missouri athletic director Jim Sterk, "but as I say that, tomorrow something can be announced."

Quote:"I don't think anybody is interested in going beyond 14 right now unless there's a real national driver," says R. Bowen Loftin who as Texas A&M president guided the Aggies to the SEC. "If (Pac-12 commissioner) Scott's vision somehow begins to prevail and we move toward a four-conference world, that would energize the SEC to add two more teams.

"Which ones would they be? That's a very interesting question."

Quote:Loftin, who witnessed the Big 12's instability up close for years, doesn't have an optimistic outlook on the conference's viability.

"The Big 12's long-term trajectory is not clear to me especially if Texas decides at some point it wants to be on its own," he says. "They have to figure out how they survive with the number of schools they've got, the geography they've got as new contracts come along. If you see the pressure on ESPN right now, what must it be like on FOX? How will they make that work contractually in terms of a new contract? I see some clouds on their horizon."

Quote:"You hear all of this talk that there will be another wave of expansion," says David Williams, Vanderbilt's vice chancellor of athletics. "I would say that you really have to gauge that toward when the next big TV contracts come up. I can remember that discussion some years ago that at some point there will be four conferences, 16 teams. You'd have to figure out who won't be around. I think if you go around to all the Power 5, they'll say 'I'll be there.'"

Quote:The SEC does have three states, Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi, with two league members each but that's tradition, not the strategy going forward. There are plenty of valid reasons why not to double-up in states anymore, but all that really matters is influential SEC leaders don't want to. Popular expansion targets like Clemson, Florida State and Louisville are all dead on arrival even if they seem like perfect fits in the SEC. As both Texas A&M's president and later Missouri's chancellor, Loftin worked closely with school administrators and remembers Florida and South Carolina powers having no interest in one of their in-state rivals getting an invite to join the lucrative SEC.

"There is a lot of resistance, not necessarily spoken out loud, to the idea of the in-state rival Clemson or Florida State coming on board," he says.

Quote:It's likely that the SEC will still be at 14 members in five years when it's time to celebrate the 10-year anniversary of Texas A&M and Missouri joining the conference. The grant of rights deals seem to guarantee that. But even in a period of quiet, the vultures are still circling the Big 12 as it continues to fight off both internal and external threats.

If the SEC wants, it could be the biggest threat of all.

(03-14-2018 01:16 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  This is an old article from AL.com, but I honestly can't remember reading it.

SEC Expansion: Why the Big 12 is the key to the SEC adding more schools

I did find a couple of interesting points to glean so let's see what everyone thinks...

Quote:But if the big conference realignment period taught us anything, it's that stability can be fleeting. "I think it's pretty stable right now," says Missouri athletic director Jim Sterk, "but as I say that, tomorrow something can be announced."

Quote:"I don't think anybody is interested in going beyond 14 right now unless there's a real national driver," says R. Bowen Loftin who as Texas A&M president guided the Aggies to the SEC. "If (Pac-12 commissioner) Scott's vision somehow begins to prevail and we move toward a four-conference world, that would energize the SEC to add two more teams.

"Which ones would they be? That's a very interesting question."

Quote:Loftin, who witnessed the Big 12's instability up close for years, doesn't have an optimistic outlook on the conference's viability.

"The Big 12's long-term trajectory is not clear to me especially if Texas decides at some point it wants to be on its own," he says. "They have to figure out how they survive with the number of schools they've got, the geography they've got as new contracts come along. If you see the pressure on ESPN right now, what must it be like on FOX? How will they make that work contractually in terms of a new contract? I see some clouds on their horizon."

Quote:"You hear all of this talk that there will be another wave of expansion," says David Williams, Vanderbilt's vice chancellor of athletics. "I would say that you really have to gauge that toward when the next big TV contracts come up. I can remember that discussion some years ago that at some point there will be four conferences, 16 teams. You'd have to figure out who won't be around. I think if you go around to all the Power 5, they'll say 'I'll be there.'"

Quote:The SEC does have three states, Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi, with two league members each but that's tradition, not the strategy going forward. There are plenty of valid reasons why not to double-up in states anymore, but all that really matters is influential SEC leaders don't want to. Popular expansion targets like Clemson, Florida State and Louisville are all dead on arrival even if they seem like perfect fits in the SEC. As both Texas A&M's president and later Missouri's chancellor, Loftin worked closely with school administrators and remembers Florida and South Carolina powers having no interest in one of their in-state rivals getting an invite to join the lucrative SEC.

"There is a lot of resistance, not necessarily spoken out loud, to the idea of the in-state rival Clemson or Florida State coming on board," he says.

Quote:It's likely that the SEC will still be at 14 members in five years when it's time to celebrate the 10-year anniversary of Texas A&M and Missouri joining the conference. The grant of rights deals seem to guarantee that. But even in a period of quiet, the vultures are still circling the Big 12 as it continues to fight off both internal and external threats.

If the SEC wants, it could be the biggest threat of all.

That wasn't true in '92, and it won't be true moving forward either. It was only true for the 2010 realignment period because 2 new markets were required in order to renegotiate the contract.

I read this when it came out and the cord cutting issues were just starting and their impact upon realignment was not yet an influence with regards to this remark. Clearly the source was still thinking in terms of the footprint model of payout, but then most university presidents don't stay current on these matters and rely upon the commissioner and network representatives to bring them up to date.

This way of thinking is dead moving forward. Branding to add to content value is the only way to expand now.

And as to the part I colored red, "not spoken out loud" because their states are interested in securing the best revenue streams for their schools and the A.D.'s desire being able to play rivals as in conference games, especially as growth of conference size continues because these are their money games and they don't want them jeopardized. People donate to get priority for these tickets.