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Poll: Which schools are plausible adds for each conference to reach 16? (must be mutual attraction between school and conference; choose as many as you deem plausible)
Big Ten: Kansas
Big Ten: Missouri
Big Ten: Oklahoma
Big Ten: Texas
Pac-12: Houston
Pac-12: Oklahoma
Pac-12: Oklahoma State
Pac-12: TCU
Pac-12: Texas
Pac-12: Texas Tech
SEC: Oklahoma
SEC: Oklahoma State
SEC: TCU
SEC: Texas
SEC: Texas Tech
SEC: West Virginia
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Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
Which schools are plausible adds for each conference to reach 16? NOTE: There must be mutual attraction between school and conference. Choose as many as you deem plausible.

In the vein of these polls:
http://csnbbs.com/thread-844913.html
http://csnbbs.com/thread-844924.html

If you think others are plausible, feel free to mention them in a post.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2018 10:50 AM by Nerdlinger.)
03-13-2018 10:33 AM
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
The plausible qualifier does narrow it down.
03-13-2018 11:07 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-13-2018 11:07 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  The plausible qualifier does narrow it down.

Indeed. I listed all the ones I thought might have a possible chance of happening, although even then I'm skeptical on some.

The Big Ten is most limited in expansion options, although that's mainly due to their high academic standards. Kansas is plausible, and Missouri if they can pry them loose from the SEC. I'm sure the Big Ten would love to have OU or UT, but I don't think the feeling is mutual. I didn't even list ISU because they have no value at all to the Big Ten.

The Pac-12 may score by adding OU/OSU/UT/TT, as they attempted in 2010. If OU says no, then the Texas quartet UT/TT/TCU/UH might work.

The SEC might expand like so, if at all:
OU + UT (unlikely, but the ultimate score)
OU + OSU/TCU/WVU
UT + TCU/maybe TT

And of course if Missouri does leave, it'll be a lucky day for OSU, TCU, WVU, or possibly TT as a replacement.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2018 12:14 PM by Nerdlinger.)
03-13-2018 12:02 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-13-2018 12:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 11:07 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  The plausible qualifier does narrow it down.

Indeed. I listed all the ones I thought might have a possible chance of happening, although even then I'm skeptical on some.

The Big Ten is most limited in expansion options, although that's mainly due to their high academic standards. Kansas is plausible, and Missouri if they can pry them loose from the SEC. I'm sure the Big Ten would love to have OU or UT, but I don't think the feeling is mutual. I didn't even list ISU because they have no value at all to the Big Ten.

The Pac-12 may score by adding OU/OSU/UT/TT, as they attempted in 2010. If OU says no, then the Texas quartet UT/TT/TCU/UH might work.

The SEC might expand like so, if at all:
OU + UT (unlikely, but the ultimate score)
OU + OSU/TCU/WVU
UT + TCU/maybe TT

And of course if Missouri does leave, it'll be a lucky day for OSU, TCU, WVU, or possibly TT as a replacement.


16 is too many for a conference, too many mouths to feed, plus regional differences, they will not last because of this.


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03-13-2018 10:25 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
Houston is not even remotely plausible for the Pac-12. They do not meet any of the criteria for the league. New Mexico, Iowa State and Colorado State are all far more plausible.
03-13-2018 10:34 PM
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USAFMEDIC Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-13-2018 10:25 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 12:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 11:07 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  The plausible qualifier does narrow it down.

Indeed. I listed all the ones I thought might have a possible chance of happening, although even then I'm skeptical on some.

The Big Ten is most limited in expansion options, although that's mainly due to their high academic standards. Kansas is plausible, and Missouri if they can pry them loose from the SEC. I'm sure the Big Ten would love to have OU or UT, but I don't think the feeling is mutual. I didn't even list ISU because they have no value at all to the Big Ten.

The Pac-12 may score by adding OU/OSU/UT/TT, as they attempted in 2010. If OU says no, then the Texas quartet UT/TT/TCU/UH might work.

The SEC might expand like so, if at all:
OU + UT (unlikely, but the ultimate score)
OU + OSU/TCU/WVU
UT + TCU/maybe TT

And of course if Missouri does leave, it'll be a lucky day for OSU, TCU, WVU, or possibly TT as a replacement.


16 is too many for a conference, too many mouths to feed, plus regional differences, they will not last because of this.


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ISU would work in the B1G. They have great academics which is very important to the B1G. This school is no slouch. They should have taken Missouri and Kansas with Nebraska. Now they are boxed out of the Midwest except for maybe Kansas. Very poor future planning. Mizzou will never leave the SEC. As far as TCU goes, their student enrollment is less than 9000. I am shocked they made it into the Big XII, of course their options were limited as well.
(This post was last modified: 03-14-2018 02:08 AM by USAFMEDIC.)
03-14-2018 02:04 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-13-2018 10:34 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Houston is not even remotely plausible for the Pac-12. They do not meet any of the criteria for the league. New Mexico, Iowa State and Colorado State are all far more plausible.

Meh, the ACC had academic requirements as well but they took Louisville in the last round of expansion. The PAC12 has a viewership problem, and they are not going to fix it by adding a couple schools in low population states with no national brand. I'm not saying they are going to take UH, but they make a lot more sense to me than the three you listed.
03-14-2018 08:06 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-13-2018 10:34 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Houston is not even remotely plausible for the Pac-12. They do not meet any of the criteria for the league. New Mexico, Iowa State and Colorado State are all far more plausible.

Houston is plausible if OU/OSU go to the SEC and KU to the Big Ten. A Texas that goes to the Pac will want friends to come with. The Pac will take TT and may accept TCU, but will not want Baylor. So lucky day for Houston.

(03-14-2018 02:04 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  ISU would work in the B1G. They have great academics which is very important to the B1G. This school is no slouch. They should have taken Missouri and Kansas with Nebraska. Now they are boxed out of the Midwest except for maybe Kansas. Very poor future planning. Mizzou will never leave the SEC. As far as TCU goes, their student enrollment is less than 9000. I am shocked they made it into the Big XII, of course their options were limited as well.

I doubt the Big Ten will take Iowa State unless a gun is put to their head. Iowa already has the market, and it's not a huge market. And unlike Oklahoma State, ISU's big brother won't stick up for him.

I wouldn't be so sure about Missouri's love for the SEC. If the Big Ten came calling, I think they would make the jump. Better cultural/geographic fit, the money is comparable, and IIUC there is no financial penalty for leaving the SEC.
(This post was last modified: 03-14-2018 08:46 AM by Nerdlinger.)
03-14-2018 08:46 AM
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jaredf29 Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
It's not likely the Pac12 would consider a religious based school like TCU, no matter how progressive they are.
03-14-2018 08:49 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 08:49 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  It's not likely the Pac12 would consider a religious based school like TCU, no matter how progressive they are.

If they want to land UT, though...
03-14-2018 08:53 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
I'd be curious if the A10 would punch out and up to such a number. Siena, of course, comes to mind, as does Belmont. And CoC. With time, I wonder if FGCU (consider the area and it being a Philly and NYC transplant region), NKU, or someone else from a basketball-crazy area could slide over.
03-14-2018 08:57 AM
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 02:04 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  ISU would work in the B1G. They have great academics which is very important to the B1G. This school is no slouch. They should have taken Missouri and Kansas with Nebraska. Now they are boxed out of the Midwest except for maybe Kansas. Very poor future planning. Mizzou will never leave the SEC. As far as TCU goes, their student enrollment is less than 9000. I am shocked they made it into the Big XII, of course their options were limited as well.

If I remember correctly, Missouri tried to get into the B1G back in the early 1990's and they said pass. As far as Kansas is concerned, I do not think that they want to add more deadweight on the Football side(if you believe Football drives the Bus).

ISU checks all of the boxes that the B1G wants, but they would need the help of the entire B1G West to even get it to a vote to sell the East Teams on the idea.

TCU to the SEC!?!?! That is a pipe dream. They would take Rice or someone out of the Sun Belt long before TCU..........
03-14-2018 10:40 AM
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 08:53 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 08:49 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  It's not likely the Pac12 would consider a religious based school like TCU, no matter how progressive they are.

If they want to land UT, though...

I'm gonna steal Franks line. "You got to think like a College President and not a fan"

While I'm sure Texas would check many of the boxes if not all the PAC 12 Presidents would want, I'm not sure their liberal beliefs would allow them to admit a Private Christian University from the Heart of one of the most Conservative States in the Country, to get them.

I know politics and athletics should remain separate but the reality is TCU stands for just about everything the PAC12 is against.
CJ
(This post was last modified: 03-14-2018 11:25 AM by CardinalJim.)
03-14-2018 11:24 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 11:24 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 08:53 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 08:49 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  It's not likely the Pac12 would consider a religious based school like TCU, no matter how progressive they are.

If they want to land UT, though...

I'm gonna steal Franks line. "You got to think like a College President and not a fan"

While I'm sure Texas would check many of the boxes if not all the PAC 12 Presidents would want, I'm not sure their liberal beliefs would allow them to admit a Private Christian University from the Heart of one of the most Conservative States in the Country, to get them.

I know politics and athletics should remain separate but the reality is TCU stands for just about everything the PAC12 is against.
CJ

If the Pac wants to keep up with the Big Ten and SEC, it has to add Texas. And the only way to do that will be to take some of its little buddies along too. So the Pac may just have to suck it up and bring TCU aboard.
03-14-2018 12:36 PM
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jaredf29 Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 12:36 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 11:24 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 08:53 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 08:49 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  It's not likely the Pac12 would consider a religious based school like TCU, no matter how progressive they are.

If they want to land UT, though...

I'm gonna steal Franks line. "You got to think like a College President and not a fan"

While I'm sure Texas would check many of the boxes if not all the PAC 12 Presidents would want, I'm not sure their liberal beliefs would allow them to admit a Private Christian University from the Heart of one of the most Conservative States in the Country, to get them.

I know politics and athletics should remain separate but the reality is TCU stands for just about everything the PAC12 is against.
CJ

If the Pac wants to keep up with the Big Ten and SEC, it has to add Texas. And the only way to do that will be to take some of its little buddies along too. So the Pac may just have to suck it up and bring TCU aboard.

They don’t want UT nor anyone that bad.
03-14-2018 05:35 PM
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 08:49 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  It's not likely the Pac12 would consider a religious based school like TCU, no matter how progressive they are.

It's how a school is governed that matters. Southern Cal was started by the Methodists. But the school's polity is not governed by the church. Neither is T.C.U.'s. Baylor's is.
Vanderbilt and Duke were started under the auspices of the Methodist Church as was Emory, but none of them have an academic curricula that is governed by church polity.

B.Y.U. is directly under the influence of the LDS.

Therein lies the rub.

T.C.U.'s issue with the PAC would be on research dollars, but they are starting a medical school which will help.
03-14-2018 07:21 PM
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 10:40 AM)lance99 Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 02:04 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  ISU would work in the B1G. They have great academics which is very important to the B1G. This school is no slouch. They should have taken Missouri and Kansas with Nebraska. Now they are boxed out of the Midwest except for maybe Kansas. Very poor future planning. Mizzou will never leave the SEC. As far as TCU goes, their student enrollment is less than 9000. I am shocked they made it into the Big XII, of course their options were limited as well.

If I remember correctly, Missouri tried to get into the B1G back in the early 1990's and they said pass. As far as Kansas is concerned, I do not think that they want to add more deadweight on the Football side(if you believe Football drives the Bus).

ISU checks all of the boxes that the B1G wants, but they would need the help of the entire B1G West to even get it to a vote to sell the East Teams on the idea.

TCU to the SEC!?!?! That is a pipe dream. They would take Rice or someone out of the Sun Belt long before TCU..........

Kansas gets a Big 10 invite if OU or UT accompanies them. By themselves they don't pay their own ticket in, not only because of poor football & more importantly poor football attendance (averaged just under 25,000 per game last year) but the Big 10 actually already penetrates the major market areas in Kansas. Why buy the cow if your getting the milk for free?

Iowa State is a great school in absolutely the worst possible position in realignment. They are tough sell for the SEC (cultural fit), the PAC (distance), the ACC (distance) and aren't wanted by the Big 10.

As to T.C.U. you would be wrong. T.C.U. was actually kicked around as long ago as '92 and again prior to the 2010 talks. While not a target of the SEC outright, should the SEC fail to land either Texas or Oklahoma, T.C.U. does put the SEC in DFW for 6 games a year. Would we do it? Only if we felt we had to in order to enhance our presence in that demographic. So you are wrong in one of those never say never kind of ways, but not so much when judging by priority.
03-14-2018 07:30 PM
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-13-2018 10:33 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Which schools are plausible adds for each conference to reach 16? NOTE: There must be mutual attraction between school and conference. Choose as many as you deem plausible.

In the vein of these polls:
http://csnbbs.com/thread-844913.html
http://csnbbs.com/thread-844924.html

If you think others are plausible, feel free to mention them in a post.

16 is too big. It's stupid.
03-14-2018 07:32 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
I'm not voting because the options aren't complete. But here's what I think.

The SEC will make a play for Oklahoma because they are the easiest way for the SEC to gain a majority audience in DFW when coupled with A&M's presence and they are a new state and national brand.

The SEC will silently make a play for Texas. A public overture probably wouldn't be well received but if OU his headed our way we will give UT the option to come as well. If they aren't interested and if the Big 10 is plying an offer to OU then we'll over the Pokes as a clincher, which is something the Big 10 can't do.

I also wouldn't rule out moves to 18 despite conventional message board wisdom. If UT were interested it would be easier for them to save face by bringing Texas Tech with them. Then they could always say "well it was the best move to help all of the Texas state sponsored P5's stay together and Tech might have been left out otherwise." That way their move looks sacrificial and it saves face for all of the anti SEC rhetoric they've spewed over the years.

The Big 10 will make a play for Oklahoma and Texas as well. However they will need to involve Kansas because I think their play for Oklahoma will be a ruse. They will over Oklahoma suspecting that Texas will not join the SEC and in hopes that the SEC commits its second slot to Oklahoma State to secure the Sooners. This frees them to offer their presidents 1 big fish and two acceptable AAU schools. The question is whether Texas would be interested in that deal or not if they aren't taking buddies with them. If OU and OSU are off the board then the Big 10 might make a play for Missouri. If they do and Missouri accepted (which I doubt they would) the SEC could back fill with WVU, or might consider taking a 2nd Texas school (Tech or T.C.U.) for market penetration.

Given the contracts expire at roughly the same time however there is another play for the Big 10 that doesn't garner much conversation. For the difference in sports payouts Colorado might be considered as a partner with Kansas if the Big 10 whiffs on OU and UT is recalcitrant.

The ACC might consider offering Texas a N.D. style deal but the minor sports travel would be hell and I don't see this happening. I think the best get for the ACC is West Virginia and to sit at 15 and wait on the arrival of Touchdown Jesus.

The PAC made 28.7 million in payouts last year. The Big 12 made 34.7. I don't see movement from the Big 12 to the PAC happening, especially since the PAC would only be interested in UT and would only tolerate Oklahoma. If Texas goes anywhere it will be the Big 10 or SEC under conditions like the ones I laid out. Odds are Texas stands pat and refills the Big 12.

The PAC isn't really threatened and if they don't really want to change there is really nothing to force the issue.

Personally speaking there is another scenario out there that could yet play out.

The Big 10 may decide that Kansas doesn't add enough value, and they don't, and that Oklahoma really isn't suitable for the existing Big 10, and they are not, and that the best approach is wait and see if the ACCN helps the ACC catch up. If it does they can revisit the OU, UT, KU thing at a later date. Why? Because the SEC dang sure won't be offering OSU unless the Big 10 is likely to get OU, and I don't see Oklahoma leaving alone for the SEC.

So if the Big 10 waits to see what might be available from the East long about 2032-3 (two years out from 2035) then the SEC will likely do the same and the Big 12 will merely sign a 10 year extension of the Grant of Rights.

In 2023 the SEC will be bidding out it's T1 rights package. We are expecting a significant increase from this since it was last upgraded nearly 2 decades ago. The Big 10 after FYI 2018 expects TV revenue around 51.1 million for its sports. The SEC will get Sugar Bowl money again next year and the slight annual escalation of our contract so we should be around 45 million. By the time the T1 is renegotiated we should be around 50 from escalation and seeing our payouts at or above 55 million is not unrealistic. The ACC made around 24.8 last year. If the ACCN doesn't get them within 10 million of that figure then it is possible that when their GOR is up there could be some movement. The Big 10 would be looking at the New England / Beltway area for additions. If things broke loose then the SEC might be interested as well.

If the new ESPN management wants to avoid Amazon like influence in the rights negotiations they do have an avenue to avoid them. They could add Texas plus 3 more from the Big 12, and another to the ACC and add Oklahoma and Kansas plus 4 more from the Big 12 and simply pay both conferences a rate equal to what the Big 10 is getting. This allows them to cover the valuable brands of the Big 12 and extend the present contracts of the SEC and ACC into the 2040's and do it all without any of their competitors really getting involved since this could be done at anytime prior to 2022-3, possibly in time for the ACCN's debut which with an additional market of nearly 34 million people would have a helluva an opening.

And for those who love to cry the demise of ESPN they ended last year with a total worth of 40 billion against overhead expenses and losses of only 3.9 billion. So by putting 700 million to 800 million in the game they could raise the pay of the SEC to 55 million, the pay of the ACC to 50 million, and cover the raises of the current Big 12 members as members of the two new conferences, and get in under what they were paying for Monday Night football with the NFL and they would still have money left over to seek more of the Big 10's rights.

So right now the options are:

1. The Big 10 / SEC / and ACC expand out of the Big 12.
2. ESPN merges the existing Big 12 (which they now have the T3 rights to) into the SEC and ACC.
3. The Big 12 extends their GOR until 2034 and the SEC and Big 10 wait to see what they can shake loose that may help them to consolidate their branding and markets rather than abnormally growing them.
03-14-2018 08:08 PM
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OdinFrigg Offline
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RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
The B12 extending their GoR with zero departures in the 23/24 period is a real possibility. Some expansion enthusiasts would be disappointed, but the B12 could double-down on their status quo protectionism.
03-14-2018 08:55 PM
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