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Poll: Which schools are plausible adds for each conference to reach 16? (must be mutual attraction between school and conference; choose as many as you deem plausible)
Big Ten: Kansas
Big Ten: Missouri
Big Ten: Oklahoma
Big Ten: Texas
Pac-12: Houston
Pac-12: Oklahoma
Pac-12: Oklahoma State
Pac-12: TCU
Pac-12: Texas
Pac-12: Texas Tech
SEC: Oklahoma
SEC: Oklahoma State
SEC: TCU
SEC: Texas
SEC: Texas Tech
SEC: West Virginia
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Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 08:55 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  The B12 extending their GoR with zero departures in the 23/24 period is a real possibility. Some expansion enthusiasts would be disappointed, but the B12 could double-down on their status quo protectionism.

Especially if it looked like the ACC might be vulnerable in 2034, and they would know prior to 2024. The ACCN kicks off in the Fall of 2019. There will be 5 years of data by the time the Big 12 has to make a decision. If they can't project closing the revenue gap then future defections will be possible.

If the Big 10 and SEC both took a pair that would leave some choice brands to place around Bevo and the Sooners.
03-14-2018 09:18 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 07:32 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 10:33 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Which schools are plausible adds for each conference to reach 16? NOTE: There must be mutual attraction between school and conference. Choose as many as you deem plausible.

In the vein of these polls:
http://csnbbs.com/thread-844913.html
http://csnbbs.com/thread-844924.html

If you think others are plausible, feel free to mention them in a post.

16 is too big. It's stupid.

Thank goodness we've got that settled then.
03-14-2018 10:41 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 10:41 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 07:32 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 10:33 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Which schools are plausible adds for each conference to reach 16? NOTE: There must be mutual attraction between school and conference. Choose as many as you deem plausible.

In the vein of these polls:
http://csnbbs.com/thread-844913.html
http://csnbbs.com/thread-844924.html

If you think others are plausible, feel free to mention them in a post.

16 is too big. It's stupid.

Thank goodness we've got that settled then.

Nerd, that was harsh of me. Sorry. I'm just saying the WAC tried that 16 team Model and although all of us love trying to recreate the 4 pod conference...we have to remember it didn't work. I'm just saying the 14 team thing may not even be working (Wake vs NCSU as a non con) so why would a 16 team beast work 20 years after the WAC 16?
03-14-2018 11:02 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
IMO 2034 is a very different world. Football may not be king anymore by then. The head trauma may have effectively killed it by then.
03-14-2018 11:14 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 11:14 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  IMO 2034 is a very different world. Football may not be king anymore by then. The head trauma may have effectively killed it by then.

It may not be the king it was in several regions of the country, but I doubt it dies that quickly in the Southeast and Southwest. And if it is risk of CTE is the issue you can go ahead and recrown baseball as the king because the % concussions suffered in soccer and basketball are fairly high as well.

But I do agree that 2034 will be very different in terms of composition of the population, the economy, the place of higher education with regard to the general workforce, and its relationship to medicine and engineering and agriculture. We're going to see fewer schools, but the ones we will have will be large state schools with large undergraduate programs which will help fund their research programs, or highly endowed elite private schools.

Boomers will be on their way out and X'ers will be retiring and global warming will be making the Big 10 a little more Southern in climate.
03-14-2018 11:35 PM
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jaredf29 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 07:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 08:49 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  It's not likely the Pac12 would consider a religious based school like TCU, no matter how progressive they are.

It's how a school is governed that matters. Southern Cal was started by the Methodists. But the school's polity is not governed by the church. Neither is T.C.U.'s. Baylor's is.
Vanderbilt and Duke were started under the auspices of the Methodist Church as was Emory, but none of them have an academic curricula that is governed by church polity.

B.Y.U. is directly under the influence of the LDS.

Therein lies the rub.

T.C.U.'s issue with the PAC would be on research dollars, but they are starting a medical school which will help.

USC being sectarian is ancient history, definitely a bygone era.
03-14-2018 11:41 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 08:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'm not voting because the options aren't complete. But here's what I think.

The SEC will make a play for Oklahoma because they are the easiest way for the SEC to gain a majority audience in DFW when coupled with A&M's presence and they are a new state and national brand.

The SEC will silently make a play for Texas. A public overture probably wouldn't be well received but if OU his headed our way we will give UT the option to come as well. If they aren't interested and if the Big 10 is plying an offer to OU then we'll over the Pokes as a clincher, which is something the Big 10 can't do.

I also wouldn't rule out moves to 18 despite conventional message board wisdom. If UT were interested it would be easier for them to save face by bringing Texas Tech with them. Then they could always say "well it was the best move to help all of the Texas state sponsored P5's stay together and Tech might have been left out otherwise." That way their move looks sacrificial and it saves face for all of the anti SEC rhetoric they've spewed over the years.

The Big 10 will make a play for Oklahoma and Texas as well. However they will need to involve Kansas because I think their play for Oklahoma will be a ruse. They will over Oklahoma suspecting that Texas will not join the SEC and in hopes that the SEC commits its second slot to Oklahoma State to secure the Sooners. This frees them to offer their presidents 1 big fish and two acceptable AAU schools. The question is whether Texas would be interested in that deal or not if they aren't taking buddies with them. If OU and OSU are off the board then the Big 10 might make a play for Missouri. If they do and Missouri accepted (which I doubt they would) the SEC could back fill with WVU, or might consider taking a 2nd Texas school (Tech or T.C.U.) for market penetration.

Given the contracts expire at roughly the same time however there is another play for the Big 10 that doesn't garner much conversation. For the difference in sports payouts Colorado might be considered as a partner with Kansas if the Big 10 whiffs on OU and UT is recalcitrant.

The ACC might consider offering Texas a N.D. style deal but the minor sports travel would be hell and I don't see this happening. I think the best get for the ACC is West Virginia and to sit at 15 and wait on the arrival of Touchdown Jesus.

The PAC made 28.7 million in payouts last year. The Big 12 made 34.7. I don't see movement from the Big 12 to the PAC happening, especially since the PAC would only be interested in UT and would only tolerate Oklahoma. If Texas goes anywhere it will be the Big 10 or SEC under conditions like the ones I laid out. Odds are Texas stands pat and refills the Big 12.

The PAC isn't really threatened and if they don't really want to change there is really nothing to force the issue.

Personally speaking there is another scenario out there that could yet play out.

The Big 10 may decide that Kansas doesn't add enough value, and they don't, and that Oklahoma really isn't suitable for the existing Big 10, and they are not, and that the best approach is wait and see if the ACCN helps the ACC catch up. If it does they can revisit the OU, UT, KU thing at a later date. Why? Because the SEC dang sure won't be offering OSU unless the Big 10 is likely to get OU, and I don't see Oklahoma leaving alone for the SEC.

So if the Big 10 waits to see what might be available from the East long about 2032-3 (two years out from 2035) then the SEC will likely do the same and the Big 12 will merely sign a 10 year extension of the Grant of Rights.

In 2023 the SEC will be bidding out it's T1 rights package. We are expecting a significant increase from this since it was last upgraded nearly 2 decades ago. The Big 10 after FYI 2018 expects TV revenue around 51.1 million for its sports. The SEC will get Sugar Bowl money again next year and the slight annual escalation of our contract so we should be around 45 million. By the time the T1 is renegotiated we should be around 50 from escalation and seeing our payouts at or above 55 million is not unrealistic. The ACC made around 24.8 last year. If the ACCN doesn't get them within 10 million of that figure then it is possible that when their GOR is up there could be some movement. The Big 10 would be looking at the New England / Beltway area for additions. If things broke loose then the SEC might be interested as well.

If the new ESPN management wants to avoid Amazon like influence in the rights negotiations they do have an avenue to avoid them. They could add Texas plus 3 more from the Big 12, and another to the ACC and add Oklahoma and Kansas plus 4 more from the Big 12 and simply pay both conferences a rate equal to what the Big 10 is getting. This allows them to cover the valuable brands of the Big 12 and extend the present contracts of the SEC and ACC into the 2040's and do it all without any of their competitors really getting involved since this could be done at anytime prior to 2022-3, possibly in time for the ACCN's debut which with an additional market of nearly 34 million people would have a helluva an opening.

And for those who love to cry the demise of ESPN they ended last year with a total worth of 40 billion against overhead expenses and losses of only 3.9 billion. So by putting 700 million to 800 million in the game they could raise the pay of the SEC to 55 million, the pay of the ACC to 50 million, and cover the raises of the current Big 12 members as members of the two new conferences, and get in under what they were paying for Monday Night football with the NFL and they would still have money left over to seek more of the Big 10's rights.

So right now the options are:

1. The Big 10 / SEC / and ACC expand out of the Big 12.
2. ESPN merges the existing Big 12 (which they now have the T3 rights to) into the SEC and ACC.
3. The Big 12 extends their GOR until 2034 and the SEC and Big 10 wait to see what they can shake loose that may help them to consolidate their branding and markets rather than abnormally growing them.

To say ESPN owns the Big 12 3rd tier rights isn’t accurate.
Yes, espn bought the Fox regionals.
No, that move didn’t buy the 3rd tier rights to all big 12 schools.
It’s more complicated than that and I could give you an example of 2 particular big 12 schools tv options when not picked up by Fox and ESPN, but I think you may know where I’m going with this....
03-14-2018 11:45 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 11:41 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 07:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 08:49 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  It's not likely the Pac12 would consider a religious based school like TCU, no matter how progressive they are.

It's how a school is governed that matters. Southern Cal was started by the Methodists. But the school's polity is not governed by the church. Neither is T.C.U.'s. Baylor's is.
Vanderbilt and Duke were started under the auspices of the Methodist Church as was Emory, but none of them have an academic curricula that is governed by church polity.

B.Y.U. is directly under the influence of the LDS.

Therein lies the rub.

T.C.U.'s issue with the PAC would be on research dollars, but they are starting a medical school which will help.

USC being sectarian is ancient history, definitely a bygone era.

The point here is that the PAC 12 is only concerned with academic freedom which T.C.U.'s governance structure delivers. The seminary is an entity independently operated from the rest of the school. That meets PAC guidelines. B.Y.U. and Baylor are not.
03-14-2018 11:46 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
that's how i see it,
ACC falls apart, Va & NC to B10. Mia & VT to SEC
6 [maybe 8] to B12
pac12: Hous & Haw
Duke & WF to BE
03-14-2018 11:48 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Plausible Conference Adds to Reach 16
(03-14-2018 11:45 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(03-14-2018 08:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'm not voting because the options aren't complete. But here's what I think.

The SEC will make a play for Oklahoma because they are the easiest way for the SEC to gain a majority audience in DFW when coupled with A&M's presence and they are a new state and national brand.

The SEC will silently make a play for Texas. A public overture probably wouldn't be well received but if OU his headed our way we will give UT the option to come as well. If they aren't interested and if the Big 10 is plying an offer to OU then we'll over the Pokes as a clincher, which is something the Big 10 can't do.

I also wouldn't rule out moves to 18 despite conventional message board wisdom. If UT were interested it would be easier for them to save face by bringing Texas Tech with them. Then they could always say "well it was the best move to help all of the Texas state sponsored P5's stay together and Tech might have been left out otherwise." That way their move looks sacrificial and it saves face for all of the anti SEC rhetoric they've spewed over the years.

The Big 10 will make a play for Oklahoma and Texas as well. However they will need to involve Kansas because I think their play for Oklahoma will be a ruse. They will over Oklahoma suspecting that Texas will not join the SEC and in hopes that the SEC commits its second slot to Oklahoma State to secure the Sooners. This frees them to offer their presidents 1 big fish and two acceptable AAU schools. The question is whether Texas would be interested in that deal or not if they aren't taking buddies with them. If OU and OSU are off the board then the Big 10 might make a play for Missouri. If they do and Missouri accepted (which I doubt they would) the SEC could back fill with WVU, or might consider taking a 2nd Texas school (Tech or T.C.U.) for market penetration.

Given the contracts expire at roughly the same time however there is another play for the Big 10 that doesn't garner much conversation. For the difference in sports payouts Colorado might be considered as a partner with Kansas if the Big 10 whiffs on OU and UT is recalcitrant.

The ACC might consider offering Texas a N.D. style deal but the minor sports travel would be hell and I don't see this happening. I think the best get for the ACC is West Virginia and to sit at 15 and wait on the arrival of Touchdown Jesus.

The PAC made 28.7 million in payouts last year. The Big 12 made 34.7. I don't see movement from the Big 12 to the PAC happening, especially since the PAC would only be interested in UT and would only tolerate Oklahoma. If Texas goes anywhere it will be the Big 10 or SEC under conditions like the ones I laid out. Odds are Texas stands pat and refills the Big 12.

The PAC isn't really threatened and if they don't really want to change there is really nothing to force the issue.

Personally speaking there is another scenario out there that could yet play out.

The Big 10 may decide that Kansas doesn't add enough value, and they don't, and that Oklahoma really isn't suitable for the existing Big 10, and they are not, and that the best approach is wait and see if the ACCN helps the ACC catch up. If it does they can revisit the OU, UT, KU thing at a later date. Why? Because the SEC dang sure won't be offering OSU unless the Big 10 is likely to get OU, and I don't see Oklahoma leaving alone for the SEC.

So if the Big 10 waits to see what might be available from the East long about 2032-3 (two years out from 2035) then the SEC will likely do the same and the Big 12 will merely sign a 10 year extension of the Grant of Rights.

In 2023 the SEC will be bidding out it's T1 rights package. We are expecting a significant increase from this since it was last upgraded nearly 2 decades ago. The Big 10 after FYI 2018 expects TV revenue around 51.1 million for its sports. The SEC will get Sugar Bowl money again next year and the slight annual escalation of our contract so we should be around 45 million. By the time the T1 is renegotiated we should be around 50 from escalation and seeing our payouts at or above 55 million is not unrealistic. The ACC made around 24.8 last year. If the ACCN doesn't get them within 10 million of that figure then it is possible that when their GOR is up there could be some movement. The Big 10 would be looking at the New England / Beltway area for additions. If things broke loose then the SEC might be interested as well.

If the new ESPN management wants to avoid Amazon like influence in the rights negotiations they do have an avenue to avoid them. They could add Texas plus 3 more from the Big 12, and another to the ACC and add Oklahoma and Kansas plus 4 more from the Big 12 and simply pay both conferences a rate equal to what the Big 10 is getting. This allows them to cover the valuable brands of the Big 12 and extend the present contracts of the SEC and ACC into the 2040's and do it all without any of their competitors really getting involved since this could be done at anytime prior to 2022-3, possibly in time for the ACCN's debut which with an additional market of nearly 34 million people would have a helluva an opening.

And for those who love to cry the demise of ESPN they ended last year with a total worth of 40 billion against overhead expenses and losses of only 3.9 billion. So by putting 700 million to 800 million in the game they could raise the pay of the SEC to 55 million, the pay of the ACC to 50 million, and cover the raises of the current Big 12 members as members of the two new conferences, and get in under what they were paying for Monday Night football with the NFL and they would still have money left over to seek more of the Big 10's rights.

So right now the options are:

1. The Big 10 / SEC / and ACC expand out of the Big 12.
2. ESPN merges the existing Big 12 (which they now have the T3 rights to) into the SEC and ACC.
3. The Big 12 extends their GOR until 2034 and the SEC and Big 10 wait to see what they can shake loose that may help them to consolidate their branding and markets rather than abnormally growing them.

To say ESPN owns the Big 12 3rd tier rights isn’t accurate.
Yes, espn bought the Fox regionals.
No, that move didn’t buy the 3rd tier rights to all big 12 schools.
It’s more complicated than that and I could give you an example of 2 particular big 12 schools tv options when not picked up by Fox and ESPN, but I think you may know where I’m going with this....

They gained Oklahoma's Billybobby, and since they already held those of Texas and Kansas that was all that need be accomplished. The rest of them are easy enough to buy out because they are mostly in the 3 million and less range. And if a P5 home was really available to all of them how many of them would put up a fight? None!

And most of those T3 contracts are nearing the end of their duration anyway.
(This post was last modified: 03-14-2018 11:51 PM by JRsec.)
03-14-2018 11:48 PM
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