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What are the mid-majors to do?
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ken d Online
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Post: #41
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 12:16 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  400 yet only about 20 have a realistic shot of winning the national title every season. If you wanna be liberal, then only 45-50 can in a given year. Expanding the field wouldn't change that amount, it would just increase the number who could reach the Sweet 16 and Final Four.

Increase the field to 80 and the NIT to 40-48. I don't know why the NIT didn't stick to its 40-team field. As you can see with the CIT and CBI, there's no shortage of teams willing to play in the postseason. And remember, many who declined bids would accept for the non-pay-to-play NIT. Why would an athletic department already bleeding in the red want more debt to play in third rate basketball tournament?

See my Post #21 here

http://csnbbs.com/thread-845330-page-3.html

Only 8 teams outside the six power conferences had a composite ranking in the Top 50. Three of those were conference champs with an auto bid: Cincinnati (5), Gonzaga (10) and Davidson (50).

Four of the other five got at large bids: Wichita St (14), Houston (18), Nevada (27) and Rhode Island (36). Only St Mary's (34) was left out of the NCAAT this year.

On the other hand, two power conference teams above 50 got invited: Syracuse (51) and Providence (56).

Six power conference teams in the Top 50 were left out: Louisville (32), Notre Dame (36), Baylor (37), Penn State 37), USC (37) and Maryland (47).

Looking at those numbers, it's hard for me to see how schools outside the top six conferences can say they were systematically screwed by the selection committee. St Mary's may have a legitimate beef, but not more so than a half dozen P6 schools.
03-13-2018 10:33 AM
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AppfanInCAAland Offline
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Post: #42
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 05:28 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  How about the tournament contracts to 32 teams?

That way its one bid per conference much more fair.

I'd be on board with only conference tournament champs in the NCAA tournament. But I'm probably the only one.
03-13-2018 11:30 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #43
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
I don't know what could realistically be done that actually sticks. What concerns me more than anything are the instances where the committee keeps out a RPI team in the 20's. That's happened now twice (2015-16 SBU was #30), and was close to happening again this year with SBU and them being in the last-in play-in group.

We have a new threshold for the majors after this year with USC, and even Louisville could have set that bar at their mark (I want to say the next highest snub was something like 39 or low 40's over a decade ago for a Big East or PAC team, but don't know for sure). Of course, I suspect Louisville and USC got snubbed this year because of impending investigations or other punitive measures; "clean" majors wouldn't be reduced to this.

If the lines aren't even, and the committee not only disregards good RPI numbers to potentially include suspect ones (we were, again, close to this with Notre Dame as a first-out team; RPI #70 is ridiculous for a major or non-major at-large bid), nothing can be done. You won't force this committee into any box with its decision-making, nor will you ever get a straight, across-the-board answer to their methods. It's a stacked deck now until someone forces some big changes within the NCAA and higher education. Sucks, but true.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2018 11:48 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
03-13-2018 11:46 AM
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Post: #44
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 11:30 AM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 05:28 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  How about the tournament contracts to 32 teams?

That way its one bid per conference much more fair.

I'd be on board with only conference tournament champs in the NCAA tournament. But I'm probably the only one.

I'd be fine with going back to 48.
03-13-2018 12:10 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #45
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
I think the only answer is the hybrid. The top 3-4 mid-major basketball programs in the east need to gravitate toward the AAC as olympic sports members. Same in the west, with the 3 or 4 best western basketball programs coalescing in the Mountain West. Thats the way forward for those mid-major power programs. Everyone wins. The MW and AAC strengthen their conference slate and the big mid-majors can get out of the situation where their conference schedule kills their RPI. Even the Mid Major conferences that lose their big gun win---as everyone else has a more open road to an NCAA auto-bid. The end result is the AAC and MW become more "Big East" like.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2018 12:45 PM by Attackcoog.)
03-13-2018 12:43 PM
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CliftonAve Online
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Post: #46
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 12:43 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think the only answer is the hybrid. The top 3-4 mid-major basketball programs in the east need to gravitate toward the AAC as olympic sports members. Same in the west, with the 3 or 4 best western basketball programs coalescing in the Mountain West. Thats the way forward for those mid-major power programs. Everyone wins. The MW and AAC strengthen their conference slate and the big mid-majors can get out of the situation where their conference schedule kills their RPI. Even the Mid Major conferences that lose their big gun win---as everyone else has a more open road to an NCAA auto-bid. The end result is the AAC and MW become more "Big East" like.

Based on your suggestion the AAC adds Dayton, VCU and Rhode Island. The MWC adds Gonzaga, St. Mary's and BYU. That would work for the those two conference and selected schools but would not help out the Middle Tennessee State's of the world.
03-13-2018 12:50 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #47
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 11:46 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I don't know what could realistically be done that actually sticks. What concerns me more than anything are the instances where the committee keeps out a RPI team in the 20's. That's happened now twice (2015-16 SBU was #30), and was close to happening again this year with SBU and them being in the last-in play-in group.

We have a new threshold for the majors after this year with USC, and even Louisville could have set that bar at their mark (I want to say the next highest snub was something like 39 or low 40's over a decade ago for a Big East or PAC team, but don't know for sure). Of course, I suspect Louisville and USC got snubbed this year because of impending investigations or other punitive measures; "clean" majors wouldn't be reduced to this.

If the lines aren't even, and the committee not only disregards good RPI numbers to potentially include suspect ones (we were, again, close to this with Notre Dame as a first-out team; RPI #70 is ridiculous for a major or non-major at-large bid), nothing can be done. You won't force this committee into any box with its decision-making, nor will you ever get a straight, across-the-board answer to their methods. It's a stacked deck now until someone forces some big changes within the NCAA and higher education. Sucks, but true.

One of the things I noticed in developing a composite ranking for tourney teams was just how unreliable the RPI is in evaluating teams. By far, it was the most frequent outlier of the five computer rankings I used, and by the biggest margins. When I compared each ranking to the average of the other four rankings, the RPI was different from the average by 20 or more places 27 out of 98 times. In some cases they were different by more than 60 places.

So, when someone is included, or excluded, I'm going to want to see a reason other than RPI for why the committee got it wrong.
03-13-2018 01:09 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #48
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 01:09 PM)ken d Wrote:  So, when someone is included, or excluded, I'm going to want to see a reason other than RPI for why the committee got it wrong.

Yeah...but it's the one in which the committee wraps itself. I agree with you...I don't hate RPI like others do, but I am over its misapplications. And it's easy to knock it down, because it's a composite that takes way too much into account without proper portioning. And I'm over the conspiracy theories coming from major conference schools against non-majors for manipulating things.

This team at 26 isn't worthy, look at their SOS...but RPI already takes SOS into consideration to get to that 26 number. Well, look at their NC-SOS...ditto there, too. Yeah, but, but...2-3 versus Group 1, and a bunch of those aren't going to the tournament...again, somehow the algorithm spits out a result at the 26th place.

If there wasn't such resistance to "show me your work," I think many people could drop it. The problem is, and I think Jay Bilas nailed this one...you have some who don't watch games, look at paper and numbers only, and then don't apply a consistent method across the board. That's where I soften up to RPI...it's not a terrible metric...it's the endorsed metric in a bad committee member's hands when other metrics might be better.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2018 01:31 PM by The Cutter of Bish.)
03-13-2018 01:27 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #49
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 01:27 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 01:09 PM)ken d Wrote:  So, when someone is included, or excluded, I'm going to want to see a reason other than RPI for why the committee got it wrong.

Yeah...but it's the one in which the committee wraps itself. I agree with you...I don't hate RPI like others do, but I am over its misapplications. And it's easy to knock it down, because it's a composite that takes way too much into account without proper portioning. And I'm over the conspiracy theories coming from major conference schools against non-majors for manipulating things.

This team at 26 isn't worthy, look at their SOS...but RPI already takes SOS into consideration to get to that 26 number. Well, look at their NC-SOS...ditto there, too. Yeah, but, but...2-3 versus Group 1, and a bunch of those aren't going to the tournament...again, somehow the algorithm spits out a result at the 26th place.

If there wasn't such resistance to "show me your work," I think many people could drop it. The problem is, and I think Jay Bilas nailed this one...you have some who don't watch games, look at paper and numbers only, and then don't apply a consistent method across the board. That's where I soften up to RPI...it's not a terrible metric...it's the endorsed metric in a bad committee member's hands when other metrics might be better.

I used to think RPI wasn't such a terrible metric, but crunching the numbers has me questioning that. Some examples involving bubble teams:

Team..................RPI....Consensus

St Bonaventure.....24......62
Providence...........31......59
Middle Tennessee..33......54
Oklahoma St........88......52

Then I see South Dakota State with an RPI of 35, when the other ranking services average around #80. A "good" metric shouldn't be that much of an outlier.
03-13-2018 01:45 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #50
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 12:50 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 12:43 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think the only answer is the hybrid. The top 3-4 mid-major basketball programs in the east need to gravitate toward the AAC as olympic sports members. Same in the west, with the 3 or 4 best western basketball programs coalescing in the Mountain West. Thats the way forward for those mid-major power programs. Everyone wins. The MW and AAC strengthen their conference slate and the big mid-majors can get out of the situation where their conference schedule kills their RPI. Even the Mid Major conferences that lose their big gun win---as everyone else has a more open road to an NCAA auto-bid. The end result is the AAC and MW become more "Big East" like.

Based on your suggestion the AAC adds Dayton, VCU and Rhode Island. The MWC adds Gonzaga, St. Mary's and BYU. That would work for the those two conference and selected schools but would not help out the Middle Tennessee State's of the world.

Honestly, MTSU and W Kentucky wouldnt be horrible all-sports additions to the AAC. They need to continue to build their fan base and athletic budgets---but both would bring solid basketball and reasonably successful football programs.

That said, I could see a small group of G5's with strong basketball programs breaking off to form their own G5 at some point. I think a core group might look something like this---

ODU
MTSU
WKU
UAB
LaTech
03-13-2018 01:49 PM
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Post: #51
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 11:46 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I don't know what could realistically be done that actually sticks.

Make a political decision that the midmajors (everyone but the top 8 leagues, top 7 if A-10 continues to fade) have to get a few at-large bids every year to keep the bottom 25 leagues and the Tournament itself healthy.

So go ahead and keep a different set of books for the midmajors. Regular season champ with 25+ wins? You're in. Spent most of the year in the top 25 because of what you did in the tournament last year? You're in. Later on I'll work through what this means in detail. But the idea is change the mandate from "best 36 teams" getting at-large bids. Shave that number by 2-3-4.

On the other hand, a "soft ban" on at-large bids with losing records in-conference. (9-9 and one-and-done, maybe okay. 8-10 and 2-1, out in the semis vs a top four seed, maybe okay. 8-10 and one-and-done--NIT).

Quote:It's a stacked deck now until someone forces some big changes within the NCAA and higher education. Sucks, but true.

Always will be. Change the stacking methods to reflect a tweaked balance of power.
03-13-2018 02:03 PM
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Post: #52
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
Try to join better leagues and make leagues smaller. CUSA is too big at 14. MWC is fine with 12 if they add Gonzaga. Mid major leagues should be at 10. Lesser chance to play the worst teams in your conference.

Mid majors must play on the road, no matter how it effects you financially. Better to play at Northwestern and lose than play Northwestern St at home and win.
03-13-2018 02:07 PM
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Post: #53
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 02:07 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Try to join better leagues and make leagues smaller. CUSA is too big at 14. MWC is fine with 12 if they add Gonzaga. Mid major leagues should be at 10. Lesser chance to play the worst teams in your conference.

Mid majors must play on the road, no matter how it effects you financially. Better to play at Northwestern and lose than play Northwestern St at home and win.

Actually you have it backwards....

If the WCC added 2 teams(lets say Grand Canyon and New Mexico St). keeps everyone else, including Gonzaga.

Gonzaga's SOS goes up considerably- given now they don't have to play the bottom 4 teams a 2nd time. HUGE difference in SOS.
03-13-2018 02:10 PM
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Post: #54
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
I do not have a suggestion--yet. I know this- the Quadrant method is too statistically inexact.
03-13-2018 02:13 PM
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RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
One Solution?
Expand NCAA playoffs?
There is already a “playoff” for 11th & 16th seeded teams
Why not add 12th, 13th, 14th, & 15th seeding games
that’s 4 more bids

But
How many G5 schools in NIT
would receive one of those bids?
03-13-2018 02:16 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #56
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 02:03 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 11:46 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I don't know what could realistically be done that actually sticks.

Make a political decision that the midmajors (everyone but the top 8 leagues, top 7 if A-10 continues to fade) have to get a few at-large bids every year to keep the bottom 25 leagues and the Tournament itself healthy.

So go ahead and keep a different set of books for the midmajors. Regular season champ with 25+ wins? You're in. Spent most of the year in the top 25 because of what you did in the tournament last year? You're in. Later on I'll work through what this means in detail. But the idea is change the mandate from "best 36 teams" getting at-large bids. Shave that number by 2-3-4.

On the other hand, a "soft ban" on at-large bids with losing records in-conference. (9-9 and one-and-done, maybe okay. 8-10 and 2-1, out in the semis vs a top four seed, maybe okay. 8-10 and one-and-done--NIT).

Quote:It's a stacked deck now until someone forces some big changes within the NCAA and higher education. Sucks, but true.

Always will be. Change the stacking methods to reflect a tweaked balance of power.

Thats not a bad idea. 04-cheers
03-13-2018 02:23 PM
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Post: #57
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 02:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 02:07 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Try to join better leagues and make leagues smaller. CUSA is too big at 14. MWC is fine with 12 if they add Gonzaga. Mid major leagues should be at 10. Lesser chance to play the worst teams in your conference.

Mid majors must play on the road, no matter how it effects you financially. Better to play at Northwestern and lose than play Northwestern St at home and win.

Actually you have it backwards....

If the WCC added 2 teams(lets say Grand Canyon and New Mexico St). keeps everyone else, including Gonzaga.

Gonzaga's SOS goes up considerably- given now they don't have to play the bottom 4 teams a 2nd time. HUGE difference in SOS.

Except, you would need a system in place that ensures that the top teams play each other twice - or at least that the top teams don't play the bottom teams twice. How do you administer such a system? It would potentially help to get better matchups in the conference tournament.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2018 02:25 PM by YNot.)
03-13-2018 02:24 PM
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Post: #58
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 02:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(03-13-2018 02:07 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Try to join better leagues and make leagues smaller. CUSA is too big at 14. MWC is fine with 12 if they add Gonzaga. Mid major leagues should be at 10. Lesser chance to play the worst teams in your conference.

Mid majors must play on the road, no matter how it effects you financially. Better to play at Northwestern and lose than play Northwestern St at home and win.

Actually you have it backwards....

If the WCC added 2 teams(lets say Grand Canyon and New Mexico St). keeps everyone else, including Gonzaga.

Gonzaga's SOS goes up considerably- given now they don't have to play the bottom 4 teams a 2nd time. HUGE difference in SOS.

That would give them 12 teams, are they going to play 22 conference games? Highly unlikely. That would be assuming they would play BYU, St Mary's, NMSU, and GCU home and home each season. Surely, the others teams would want some of that action, especially since GCU and NMSU would by far be Gonzaga's longest road trips.
03-13-2018 02:29 PM
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RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
(03-13-2018 02:24 PM)YNot Wrote:  Except, you would need a system in place that ensures that the top teams play each other twice - or at least that the top teams don't play the bottom teams twice. How do you administer such a system? It would potentially help to get better matchups in the conference tournament.

Conference offices have gotten pretty good at doing this in the A-10 and other oversized leagues.

I don't think that the SOS bump is enough to make the difference between Gonzaga getting an at-large and getting left out if they lose in the WCC tournamnet, but Stever20's pretty good at this.

Quietly reserving a few at-larges for the bottom 25 leagues would do the same job, without continuing realignment at the bottom, killing the WAC. Actually, worse than killing the WAC from the power conferences' point of view is the bottom leagues surviving by bringing in yet another wave of callups. (That's enough to balance out 2-3-4 credits a year though)
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2018 02:33 PM by johnbragg.)
03-13-2018 02:30 PM
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Post: #60
RE: What are the mid-majors to do?
Also, why would Gonzaga need this? They have no problem going to the NCAAs. Besides the WCC is not adding an online school and a public school in Las Cruces, NM.
03-13-2018 02:32 PM
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