Figure we'll get our favorite thread of the year started...

What's everyones bold projections for this season?

My bold projection is that the Giants have a big comeback this year and win the NL west.

Oh, so NOW you're ready to talk baseball? Totally blew off my spring training thread!

Alright - that's off my chest.

QUITE a bold prediction there. I doubt even swoosh will agree with you. You got anything to back it up?

Here's my prediction: Ohtani will be a below average performer, both hitting and pitching. His fastball is flat, his swing is long, and because he wants to be a two way player he's going to have less time to fix either of those things. Pressure is high and there are a lot of changes, both cultural and professional to deal with. Might be ok in 2019 but only if he decides to focus on pitching. Some in media will be calling him a bust by May (although that's ridiculous because he comes very cheap AND it would be way too early to give up).

It's funny I heard on the radio yesterday I think it was Billy Ripken talking about Ohtani. Said that he thought he was going to be really good. Said he could be similar to Darvish when he first came over. Pretty good comp there.....

As far as the Giants- I just think they have 1 more run in them. I think Madbum with only having about 100 innings last year will be much fresher than he's been. 2011-16 regular season averaged 212 innings and then had 80 more postseason innings in those years as well- so averaged those 6 years roughly 225 innings per year. Last year he had 111. Huge difference there. I think the Giants acquisitions will really help their lineup.

saw a great column on fangraphs about Felix Hernandez. Asking will he reach Cooperstown. It's amazing to think but right now, you'd have to say the answer is no.

I think he’s one that the homer surge has really hurt. After 2008-2014 every year being in the top 8 in fewest HR/9 innings- his numbers last 3 years- 59 hr in 441.2 innings- 1.2 per 9(compared to 7 prior years with 113 hr in 1595 innings- 0.6 hr/9).
2008-2014- 3rd best in MLB for guys with at least 1000 IP (0.64 hr/9)
2015-2017- 29th worst in MLB for guys with at least 400 IP (1.20 hr/9)

If you're wondering for Kershaw- he went from #1 0.53 hr/9 to #1 0.74 hr/9. But even there shows the difference- almost 40% worse.

Braves will be better; 2nd half will be more exciting than the first. That is all. (Enjoy it while you can, Nats.)

(03-06-2018 01:56 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Here's my prediction: Ohtani will be a below average performer, both hitting and pitching. His fastball is flat, his swing is long, and because he wants to be a two way player he's going to have less time to fix either of those things. Pressure is high and there are a lot of changes, both cultural and professional to deal with.

Maybe it will be harder for Ohtani because he is only 23 whereas Ichiro was 27 in his first MLB season, but Ichiro adjusted well enough in his first MLB season: He led the AL in BA, hits, SB, and was the AL MVP and ROY.

Ichiro didn't pitch, and he didn't ask the Mariners to accommodate him to the point where they had to adjust their approach to managing their starting rotation. And he was a contact hitter with a refined swing as opposed to a power guy with a long swing.

I'm not saying this is a LOCK; stever asked for a bold prediction. I'd be thrilled to see Ohtani crush it from the mound and the plate - I'm sure I'll go see him play this year. But based on what I've read so far I think there's a decent chance the flaws PLUS the timing PLUS being out of his comfort zone will conspire against him.

But hey, feel free to reference this post in October with a hearty

If Ohtani's production suffers because he insists on doing both a lot of pitching and a lot of hitting, that's the fault of Angels management. And it might well be a big mistake if they do let Ohtani do that.

*shrug* Angels made promises because they (and a lot of others) think he's a generational talent. Every team on his short list made similar promises.

Dodgers with a pretty big injury with Justin Turner out with a broken wrist. Just looking- same injury as Freeman had last year(missed 6 weeks) and Springer in 15(missed 9 weeks).

from now until May 3- Dodgers have...
10 games with San Francisco
10 games with Arizona
3 games with San Diego, Washington, Miami
2 games with Oakland

note that 0 with Colorado. May 3 is 6 weeks from Thursday.

just looking at fan graphs projected standings before the injury-
LA 93
SF 82
Ari 81
Col 80

if SF and Arizona both get an extra 3 wins....
LA 87
SF 85
Ari 84
Col 80

just a huge development. If not for the division, for the wild card race- really puts the Rockies behind the 8 ball early.

I think I say this every year: I ******* HATE spring training. All I do is bite my nails for 5 or 6 weeks.

[As an aside: I rarely listen to spring training games but I got into my car yesterday evening and when I turned it on it was already on the Dodgers broadcast station, so I just left it on. He got beaned within 5 minutes of me turning the game on.]

It'll hurt, for sure, but the Dodgers are very deep. My guess is that Hernandez gets most of the playing time at 3rd and maybe Forsythe. Also likely the Dodgers will get to hang on to an extra outfielder (well, left fielder) until JT is back.

(03-20-2018 10:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  if SF and Arizona both get an extra 3 wins....

No way can you statistically justify 6 losses due to one player being out for a month, even a top performer.

it's just crazy to me that while Arizona and San Francisco play them 10 times each, Colorado doesn't see them at all early in the year.

To me going from 151 wRC+ to either 90(Forsythe) or 92(Hernandez) is a huge drop off. Not a good time for an injury(when is?) given the schedule.

(03-20-2018 12:29 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(03-20-2018 10:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  if SF and Arizona both get an extra 3 wins....

No way can you statistically justify 6 losses due to one player being out for a month, even a top performer.

saying instead of going 7-3 maybe 4-6 vs both teams.. It's possible...

and also- it could even if it's just 2-3 games be the difference between #1 and #2 seed. Or playing Wild Card team or presumably Nationals/Cubs.

(03-20-2018 12:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  To me going from 151 wRC+ to either 90(Forsythe) or 92(Hernandez) is a huge drop off. Not a good time for an injury(when is?) given the schedule.

Yeah, but Forsythe at 90 was an outlier last year (he was hurt, among other things), so the expectation is that he'll be much better this year (all projections have him better this year). And Hernandez, who will likely platoon is MUCH better (wRC+ 144) against lefties.

There's no question this is a setback but not as bad as it could be. It's not a pennant killer. Yet.

(03-20-2018 12:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-20-2018 12:29 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(03-20-2018 10:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  if SF and Arizona both get an extra 3 wins....

No way can you statistically justify 6 losses due to one player being out for a month, even a top performer.

saying instead of going 7-3 maybe 4-6 vs both teams.. It's possible...

and also- it could even if it's just 2-3 games be the difference between #1 and #2 seed. Or playing Wild Card team or presumably Nationals/Cubs.

Of course it's possible, but when you consider the statistical contribution of one player (think of it in WAR terms), there's no way the absence of a player of even Justin Turner's abilities contributes to 6 losses in one month. Other things would have to go wrong too (which absolutely can happen). I think your point about seeding is probably more impactful, which is why it's lucky this happened early in the season. Lots of time to make up for this after JT returns.

(03-20-2018 02:52 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(03-20-2018 12:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  To me going from 151 wRC+ to either 90(Forsythe) or 92(Hernandez) is a huge drop off. Not a good time for an injury(when is?) given the schedule.

Yeah, but Forsythe at 90 was an outlier last year (he was hurt, among other things), so the expectation is that he'll be much better this year (all projections have him better this year). And Hernandez, who will likely platoon is MUCH better (wRC+ 144) against lefties.

There's no question this is a setback but not as bad as it could be. It's not a pennant killer. Yet.

Hernandez was reading will probably be platooning at 2nd with Utley thru this....

And the other thing- when Turner gets back, what will he be like? Looking at Freeman- he was at a 202 wRC+ when hurt, and only 122 wRC+ after coming back. For a guy at a career 137, that's a big drop off. Turner probably won't be close to being a 151 quite frankly all season long.

Yeah, Forsythe is the second best defensive 3rd baseman. Between him, Hernandez, Utley and Barnes, 3rd and 2nd will be reasonably well covered. But Utley and Barnes won't get a ton of innings at 2nd (Utley's just too old and Barnes is too important at catcher).

Turner's year 33 season - no one was counting on him going 151wRC+ this year, even in perfect health.

(03-20-2018 04:57 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Yeah, Forsythe is the second best defensive 3rd baseman. Between him, Hernandez, Utley and Barnes, 3rd and 2nd will be reasonably well covered. But Utley and Barnes won't get a ton of innings at 2nd (Utley's just too old and Barnes is too important at catcher).

Turner's year 33 season - no one was counting on him going 151wRC+ this year, even in perfect health.

yeah, he looking at FG projections projected to be between 126-132. He may be lucky to be around 110 quite frankly with the wrist. The worst of his Dodgers career.