When picking your brackets next week remember this : 9 of the last 10 winners of the tourney have been in the Top 25 of AdjO and AdjD in kenpom rankings. This year there are only four teams with these credentials. Pick wisely.
(03-06-2018 10:14 AM)CincyBro Wrote: When picking your brackets next week remember this : 9 of the last 10 winners of the tourney have been in the Top 25 of AdjO and AdjD in kenpom rankings. This year there are only four teams with these credentials. Pick wisely.
Nova, Dook, Mich. St. & Gonzaga. Well, maybe this is the year Fink beats the stomach.
(03-06-2018 10:14 AM)CincyBro Wrote: When picking your brackets next week remember this : 9 of the last 10 winners of the tourney have been in the Top 25 of AdjO and AdjD in kenpom rankings. This year there are only four teams with these credentials. Pick wisely.
Nova, Dook, Mich. St. & Gonzaga. Well, maybe this is the year Fink beats the stomach.
Duke has gotten up to 10 in adjusted defense. They have the most talent. They've got to be the favorite at this point.
(03-06-2018 10:14 AM)CincyBro Wrote: When picking your brackets next week remember this : 9 of the last 10 winners of the tourney have been in the Top 25 of AdjO and AdjD in kenpom rankings. This year there are only four teams with these credentials. Pick wisely.
Nova, Dook, Mich. St. & Gonzaga. Well, maybe this is the year Fink beats the stomach.
Duke has gotten up to 10 in adjusted defense. They have the most talent. They've got to be the favorite at this point.
Agree on talent Mark. That Bagley kid is unreal as a frosh. They start 4 frosh I believe along with the senior Grayson Allen.
They weren't great defensively early which probably means they've had to play incredible defense to improve to where they are now. They look like the pick.
(03-06-2018 10:14 AM)CincyBro Wrote: When picking your brackets next week remember this : 9 of the last 10 winners of the tourney have been in the Top 25 of AdjO and AdjD in kenpom rankings. This year there are only four teams with these credentials. Pick wisely.
Just looking at the Cats, its crazy how different our far ahead us and Virginia are on Defense. The number 1 offense, Nova, is at 126.8. Kansas, number 10, is at 120.2.
On Defense, UVA is at 83.9, we are at 86.9. The number 10th ranked team is 94.3.
(03-06-2018 01:14 PM)dsquare Wrote: I'll tell you what, do not leave Wichita St. out of the mix. 7 seniors and a boatload of big game experience.
No, you can. As good as they are, they aren't winning a championship with that swiss cheese defense. They could absolutely make a run at a E8/FF, but they will get shredded by a balanced team at some point (a Purdue/Mich St/Duke type team would be too much for them).
(03-06-2018 10:14 AM)CincyBro Wrote: When picking your brackets next week remember this : 9 of the last 10 winners of the tourney have been in the Top 25 of AdjO and AdjD in kenpom rankings. This year there are only four teams with these credentials. Pick wisely.
Nova, Dook, Mich. St. & Gonzaga. Well, maybe this is the year Fink beats the stomach.
(03-06-2018 10:14 AM)CincyBro Wrote: When picking your brackets next week remember this : 9 of the last 10 winners of the tourney have been in the Top 25 of AdjO and AdjD in kenpom rankings. This year there are only four teams with these credentials. Pick wisely.
Nova, Dook, Mich. St. & Gonzaga. Well, maybe this is the year Fink beats the stomach.
Back on topic, in addition to CincyBro's Kenpom stats, the higher seeded teams statistically dominate winning the championship. In particular, seeds 1-3. Here are the historical odds of all seeds advancing in the NCAAT round by round:
Quote:Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4 times more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round.
This should be of good use when filling out your bracket. Below you will find the probabilities for each seed to advance to that round based on historical win percentages. So, 84% of number three seeds make it to the second round, but just over 11% make the Final Four, or about one every 2 years.
The final column is tabled “True Odds”. These would be the fair odds for each seed to win the NCAA Tournament based on historical results. In other words, these are the implied probabilities that one of the four teams at that seed wins the National Championship. There are many other factors that go into making truly expert bracket picks, but this is a good place to start, especially to guide you through later rounds.
(03-06-2018 10:14 AM)CincyBro Wrote: When picking your brackets next week remember this : 9 of the last 10 winners of the tourney have been in the Top 25 of AdjO and AdjD in kenpom rankings. This year there are only four teams with these credentials. Pick wisely.
Nova, Dook, Mich. St. & Gonzaga. Well, maybe this is the year Fink beats the stomach.
+3 for the Meatballs reference.
IT JUST DOESN'T MATTER!
Is that XU pregame? Looks like Bill cheering on Andy Mac
(03-06-2018 05:48 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote: Back on topic, in addition to CincyBro's Kenpom stats, the higher seeded teams statistically dominate winning the championship. In particular, seeds 1-3. Here are the historical odds of all seeds advancing in the NCAAT round by round:
Quote:Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4 times more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round.
This should be of good use when filling out your bracket. Below you will find the probabilities for each seed to advance to that round based on historical win percentages. So, 84% of number three seeds make it to the second round, but just over 11% make the Final Four, or about one every 2 years.
The final column is tabled “True Odds”. These would be the fair odds for each seed to win the NCAA Tournament based on historical results. In other words, these are the implied probabilities that one of the four teams at that seed wins the National Championship. There are many other factors that go into making truly expert bracket picks, but this is a good place to start, especially to guide you through later rounds.
(03-06-2018 06:04 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: I'd say most of that is due to the fact that the top seeds are the best teams.
No doubt. I thought the round by round percentages were interesting for potential upset picks. I used to over value upsets in my bracket and they typically came back to haunt me.
I say wither MSU or Duke. They are the 2 beat teams to me. If Nova gets Phil Booth back, they could be a team, but I'm not trusting their defense. I also don't trust UVA to win 6 in a row in a tournament setting.
I think Zona could actually be a sleeper. They went from ashes a few weeks ago to suddenly having their entire team.
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Picking NCAA champion
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