Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
Razor Ramon Monarch Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,223
Joined: Nov 2007
Reputation: 62
I Root For: Old Dominion
Location:
Post: #1
22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
Odu is 22-6 which is a very solid win loss record on the year. It doesn't take a statistician or bracketologist to tell you that most of those wins came against mediocre to bad competition.

But to really understand just how deceiving those numbers are, let's just do a quick comparison using the "new standards".

Top 50 wins are now being called quad 1 wins, top 100 are quad 2, etc.

Let's just compare ourselves to, oh, I don't know, creighton, another one time mid major who's parlayed success into much much more.

Creighton is 20-9, which, as our odu education tells us, is not as good as 22-6. Until you exam it a little deeper.

Creighton is 3-7 against quad 1 teams and 5-2 against quad 2 for a respectable 8-7 against the top 100.

Odu, meanwhile, is 0-5 against the top 100 with vcu being a outside the top 100 loss. Creighton has none of those.



Odu's rpi is in the 70's and sos is over 200 (and will drop significantly after the two home games next week win or lose).

Creighton's rpi and sos are both in the 30's which is why they will be an at large and we will not.

But here's the bigger point. Win totals, while not totally meaningless, only tell a small fraction of the story. This year's team has a high win total but has done NOTHING of note on the court with our best win being Marshall.

I'm sorry, but this just isn't good enough and cannot be used as justification to extend jones. If wood selig sites overall record as a justification, it's just further proof we need to clean house in our athletic department because he is unable to understand how thoroughly underwhelming a job jeff has done in 5 years. Either he's being dishonest and justifying it or he's incompetent and unable to understand but either way, we cannot continue to accept such mediocrity, such underwhelming performances in big games and such a continued comedy of total lack of adjustments when things are not working in big games.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBERS TELL THE REAL STORY.
02-25-2018 02:32 AM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

Old Blue Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,755
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 78
I Root For: ODU
Location:
Post: #2
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
(02-25-2018 02:32 AM)Razor Ramon Monarch Wrote:  Odu is 22-6 which is a very solid win loss record on the year. It doesn't take a statistician or bracketologist to tell you that most of those wins came against mediocre to bad competition.

But to really understand just how deceiving those numbers are, let's just do a quick comparison using the "new standards".

Top 50 wins are now being called quad 1 wins, top 100 are quad 2, etc.

Let's just compare ourselves to, oh, I don't know, creighton, another one time mid major who's parlayed success into much much more.

Creighton is 20-9, which, as our odu education tells us, is not as good as 22-6. Until you exam it a little deeper.

Creighton is 3-7 against quad 1 teams and 5-2 against quad 2 for a respectable 8-7 against the top 100.

Odu, meanwhile, is 0-5 against the top 100 with vcu being a outside the top 100 loss. Creighton has none of those.



Odu's rpi is in the 70's and sos is over 200 (and will drop significantly after the two home games next week win or lose).

Creighton's rpi and sos are both in the 30's which is why they will be an at large and we will not.

But here's the bigger point. Win totals, while not totally meaningless, only tell a small fraction of the story. This year's team has a high win total but has done NOTHING of note on the court with our best win being Marshall.

I'm sorry, but this just isn't good enough and cannot be used as justification to extend jones. If wood selig sites overall record as a justification, it's just further proof we need to clean house in our athletic department because he is unable to understand how thoroughly underwhelming a job jeff has done in 5 years. Either he's being dishonest and justifying it or he's incompetent and unable to understand but either way, we cannot continue to accept such mediocrity, such underwhelming performances in big games and such a continued comedy of total lack of adjustments when things are not working in big games.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBERS TELL THE REAL STORY.

No doubt, you bring up a good point. We need to schedule better. But let's face it, we're not in the Big East, like Creighton. So it's kinda unfair to make the comparison. If anything, it's not unreasonable to blame Jeff Jones on his inability to develop depth. And guess what, at the end of this year we lose 6 seniors on this team. I realize that both Kah and McClinton have not really played this year, but we are talking overall numbers here. Losing 6 and replacing with only 3 is no way to build the much needed depth. I will admit I am still a supporter of Jones because I very much want to see what this recruiting class does. And correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't most people see this as a down year? I mean with losing Talley and all.
02-25-2018 05:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
CameramanJ Offline
The Malty Falcon
*

Posts: 5,500
Joined: Jun 2012
Reputation: 159
I Root For: ODU
Location: Tavern by the River
Post: #3
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
The scheduling adjustment doesn't even have to be drastic in the short term either. Limit 1 MEAC in our OOC per year, and make it either Hampton or NSU. If we're going ruthless calculus, get rid of the MEAC game altogether. More of that ruthless calculus for former CAA rivals if they just flat out aren't good (JMU). We're not attractive enough to reel in the big names for H-H, but I bet we could upgrade from the BGSUs and Fairfields of the world. There, you've got a few more potential decent wins/not awful losses that aren't RPI torpedoes.

There's still the issue of conference play being full of RPI torpedoes, but that isn't going to chance soon or fast.
02-25-2018 07:57 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
mac Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,201
Joined: Sep 2012
Reputation: 21
I Root For: Old Dominion
Location:
Post: #4
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
That's a fine argument cameraman but leave Fairfield out. We had a much higher opponent scheduled, Saint Bonaventure at home and they backed out at the last second.fairfield was last second replacement.
02-25-2018 08:13 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
CameramanJ Offline
The Malty Falcon
*

Posts: 5,500
Joined: Jun 2012
Reputation: 159
I Root For: ODU
Location: Tavern by the River
Post: #5
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
(02-25-2018 08:13 AM)mac Wrote:  That's a fine argument cameraman but leave Fairfield out. We had a much higher opponent scheduled, Saint Bonaventure at home and they backed out at the last second.fairfield was last second replacement.

Completely forgot about the Fairfield thing. My bad
02-25-2018 08:17 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
EverRespect Offline
Free Kaplony
*

Posts: 25,163
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 733
I Root For: ODU
Location:
Post: #6
22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
I gave a plan a few months back.

1. Drop on of the MEAC games and replace with a road ACC guarantee game.
2. Take the money and use it to travel for H/H games against teams like Colorado State, Nevada, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, BYU, Utah State, etc while phasing out JMU, Towson, Fairfield and Bowling Green
3. Over time, take a road trip each year out west with 2 games and have 2 of them at home.
4. Keep the VCU, W&M, and Richmond series.
5. Every year we will have 2 strong home games, 2 strong road games, a MEAC game, a Richmond team at home, a preseason tournament, and a road game against a DUKE or UNC to pay for it.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
02-25-2018 08:33 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

mac Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,201
Joined: Sep 2012
Reputation: 21
I Root For: Old Dominion
Location:
Post: #7
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
Ever. We aren't gonna go play teams out west. You should see how hard it is when teams have to travel to play teams in Texas. To make two long trips like that, or three, not happening.

Now, playing any team in the Big East, ACC ( they won't play us) A-10 or AAC, that would be helpful, yes.
02-25-2018 08:37 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
EverRespect Offline
Free Kaplony
*

Posts: 25,163
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 733
I Root For: ODU
Location:
Post: #8
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
(02-25-2018 08:37 AM)mac Wrote:  Ever. We aren't gonna go play teams out west. You should see how hard it is when teams have to travel to play teams in Texas. To make two long trips like that, or three, not happening.

Now, playing any team in the Big East, ACC ( they won't play us) A-10 or AAC, that would be helpful, yes.
I don't see why we wouldn't play teams out west other than money. We get to spread our name, potentially open recruiting areas that are ignored by our rivals and largely ignored even by the P5, and we get to see different styles of play that could help us further down the road. The road trip would only prepare them for the later trip to Texas. I don't think flying to Salt Lake City is harder than driving to Fairfield, CT or Bowling Green, OH or KY.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2018 08:47 AM by EverRespect.)
02-25-2018 08:46 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
mac Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,201
Joined: Sep 2012
Reputation: 21
I Root For: Old Dominion
Location:
Post: #9
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
Well you would simply be wrong my friend Ever. Why do do many teams lose to the Texas teams when they go out west? Anytime you have time zone changes over a short period it messes up your body. Just a fact. And the whole they are young part, doesn't matter, it does . Yes, it is hard to drive 4.5 hours to WK from Hunington, WV and arrive at 4 am or whatever it was. Look what just happened, I'm sure that's a small part of the reason we got crushed so bad.
02-25-2018 09:11 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
EverRespect Offline
Free Kaplony
*

Posts: 25,163
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 733
I Root For: ODU
Location:
Post: #10
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
(02-25-2018 09:11 AM)mac Wrote:  Well you would simply be wrong my friend Ever. Why do do many teams lose to the Texas teams when they go out west? Anytime you have time zone changes over a short period it messes up your body. Just a fact. And the whole they are young part, doesn't matter, it does . Yes, it is hard to drive 4.5 hours to WK from Hunington, WV and arrive at 4 am or whatever it was. Look what just happened, I'm sure that's a small part of the reason we got crushed so bad.
No argument that it will be hard... but let's face it... UVA, UNC, NCSU, WF, UVA, And VT aren't going to schedule H/H with us. Only way we are going to get top 75 teams on the schedule, outside of no longer reliable VCU and UR, is to travel. We were obviously willing to get on a bus and drive to Olean, NY to play St Bonnaventure. Last year we drove to Rhode Island. Is flying to Texas or SLC more difficult than that trip? Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not seeing it. I'd fly across the country tomorrow before sitting on a 12 hour bus ride 100% of the time. There may be a better way to build a schedule worthy of at large consideration. I'm just putting out one suggestion that would do it.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
02-25-2018 09:35 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
odu83alumni Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,461
Joined: Jul 2013
Reputation: 14
I Root For: odu
Location:
Post: #11
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
Don't see us going out west 2 games a year out west in Texas are enough.
02-25-2018 09:37 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

Mr.BigBlue Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,432
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 12
I Root For: Old Dominion
Location:
Post: #12
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
Nothing has changed since this years schedule was released. As I pointed out...we had to win the CUSA Tournament and that Championship had to got through MTSU. You can save yourself a lot of frustration with the season ups and down if you just think that way. CUSA is a 1 bid league most years unless the conference champ is a top 40 team and fails to win the CUSA Tournament. That is the only scenario that might get CUSA 2 bids.
02-25-2018 09:42 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
EverRespect Offline
Free Kaplony
*

Posts: 25,163
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 733
I Root For: ODU
Location:
Post: #13
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
(02-25-2018 09:37 AM)odu83alumni Wrote:  Don't see us going out west 2 games a year out west in Texas are enough.
What would you do to strengthen the schedule, given ACC schools won't schedule us H/H? What about slipping an OOC game in against New Mexico State, SMU, LSU, or Houston on a Monday night while we are going to UTEP, UNT, LT, or Rice anyway?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
02-25-2018 09:44 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
odu83alumni Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,461
Joined: Jul 2013
Reputation: 14
I Root For: odu
Location:
Post: #14
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
(02-25-2018 09:44 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(02-25-2018 09:37 AM)odu83alumni Wrote:  Don't see us going out west 2 games a year out west in Texas are enough.
What would you do to strengthen the schedule, given ACC schools won't schedule us H/H? What about slipping an OOC game in against New Mexico State, SMU, LSU, or Houston on a Monday night while we are going to UTEP, UNT, LT, or Rice anyway?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I'm thinking closer to home: Maryland, Tennessee, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Georgia.
02-25-2018 10:19 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ODU BBALL Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,117
Joined: Dec 2014
Reputation: 75
I Root For: ODU
Location:
Post: #15
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
I'm all for ODU having a stronger schedule, and many have pointed out ways to achieve that goal. Unfortunately raising the strength of schedule and RPI won't do a thing for ODU if they don't win enough to have a solid record against that schedule. This ODU team has not demonstrated that they would achieve those wins against tougher competition. If anything they have demonstrated that they would not. As has been pointed out, ODU is 0 for the season against Top 100 competition. That won't get anyone much of anything unless the NCAA starts giving out participation trophies.

ODU needs more and better talent in order to have a winning formula against an upgraded schedule. They currently don't have a good enough back-up point guard to give Caver a break for even 5 minutes a game. I've seen WKU play several times this season and have watched the majority of the ODU games as well. WKU's players as a whole seem longer, quicker, and more athletic than ODU's.

The other thing that I found troubling in yesterday's game was Jones's stick to the script mentality in spite of it not working at all. When WKU had shredded ODU's man-to-man for more than half the game and run out to a 20+ lead, why not try something different? Why not try a bunch of things different? Who cares if they win by 30 - 35 instead of winning by 20-25 because you took a chance an tried something else? Before someone chimes in and states that ODU did play some zone, let me say that I too saw that, but it was just a token few possessions, not really much of a try. Dribble penetration was killing ODU yesterday much more than 3 point shots were. Give a lengthy try with a 1-3-1, a 2-3, a 3-2, or a 2-1-2 zone to keep the ball out of the paint off the dribble. Make then hit the outside shots to pull you out of it. Change the flow of their game which is going so successfully. Throw in a corner trap or two out of the 1-3-1.

Give Godwin and Hueitt more minutes in those zones and let them see if they can hit some 3's to attempt to get ODU back into the game. I like Xavier, but he doesn't seem any more ready to play than Godwin, or Hueitt considering they would bring more offense to the court. He seems tentative on his shots as if even he doesn't expect them to go in. He has a tendency to want to dribble too much, is often careless with it, and gets it knocked away or stolen. Defensively, I haven't seen anything all that special. It's not like he is getting a lot of steals, deflections, or constantly keeping his man in front of him. Bottom line, if ODU needs to play more zone for Jeff to feel comfortable with Godwin and Hueitt subbing into the game then play more zone. Yesterday that seemed like a good idea to try anyway for both ends of the court.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2018 11:09 AM by ODU BBALL.)
02-25-2018 11:06 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
FearTheLion Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,264
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 26
I Root For: ODU Monarchs
Location: North side of DMV
Post: #16
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
To the opening post. If 22-6 is so deceiving and the final bolded sentence is so compelling, who is planning to go up to the president and BOV to make the case? I can tell you that no matter how expressive you are in getting riled up in your writings and making the case on here, a 22-6 season that will likely be 24-6 very soon (despite what you think of the schedule) is probably not enough to get a coach fired at most schools across the entire country.

There are a few top 15 schools that will do it amid controversy, but ODU is certainly not one of them and there is probably not one in the entire state of VA that would do it. I remember UK moving on from Tubby, so there's that for precedent. But good luck with that. It is clearly a very motivating calling for you. Hell, I just marvel at how after one loss in many, many games, you're so motivated to run a 100 or so posts across 4 or 5 threads with vitriol all through the night. It's clear that Jeff Jones hire is still causing blood pressure issues five years after the fact. Lol. Again, good luck on the campaign.

All that said, let's just win the CUSA tournament in a couple of weeks. At least that way we can get back to hearing why the head coach needs to be fired for not winning more NCAA games. I remember those annual arguments well too.
02-25-2018 11:13 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

Cyniclone Online
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,412
Joined: Nov 2012
Reputation: 254
I Root For: ODU and VCU
Location:
Post: #17
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
What makes anyone think that ODU isn't trying to schedule well? In addition to the aborted Bona game, ODU got hurt by Richmond and VCU being down. Bring them back to good and revive the Bona game and the schedule doesn't look bad at all (and looks positively wonderful if ODU beats Temple and gets at least one top-20 team in Charleston).

You know that old poker axiom about how if you can't identify the mark at the table, that means you're the mark? Sort of the same principle here: The only programs that don't play multiple tomato cans a season are too busy being tomato cans.

A West Coast swing sounds fine in theory, but unless it's some combination of Gonzaga/St. Mary's/San Diego State/Long Beach State, will anyone care? Will the home games draw? Or will people be upset about playing Pepperdine and San Jose State instead of a good team?

Agreed on taking a guarantee game. But not Virginia. If they can 1-and-1 with VCU and GW, no reason why they can't 1-and-1 with ODU. This isn't Radford for crying out loud.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2018 11:18 AM by Cyniclone.)
02-25-2018 11:18 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Old Dominion Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,249
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 114
I Root For: Old Dominion
Location: Almost six feet deep
Post: #18
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
(02-25-2018 11:06 AM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  I'm all for ODU having a stronger schedule, and many have pointed out ways to achieve that goal. Unfortunately raising the strength of schedule and RPI won't do a thing for ODU if they don't win enough to have a solid record against that schedule. This ODU team has not demonstrated that they would achieve those wins against tougher competition. If anything they have demonstrated that they would not. As has been pointed out, ODU is 0 for the season against Top 100 competition. That won't get anyone much of anything unless the NCAA starts giving out participation trophies.

ODU needs more and better talent in order to have a winning formula against an upgraded schedule. They currently don't have a good enough back-up point guard to give Caver a break for even 5 minutes a game. I've seen WKU play several times this season and have watched the majority of the ODU games as well. WKU's players as a whole seem longer, quicker, and more athletic than ODU's.

The other thing that I found troubling in yesterday's game was Jones's stick to the script mentality in spite of it not working at all. When WKU had shredded ODU's man-to-man for more than half the game and run out to a 20+ lead, why not try something different? Why not try a bunch of things different? Who cares if they win by 30 - 35 instead of winning by 20-25 because you took a chance an tried something else? Before someone chimes in and states that ODU did play some zone, let me say that I too saw that, but it was just a token few possessions, not really much of a try. Dribble penetration was killing ODU yesterday much more than 3 point shots were. Give a lengthy try with a 1-3-1, a 2-3, a 3-2, or a 2-1-2 zone to keep the ball out of the paint off the dribble. Make then hit the outside shots to pull you out of it. Change the flow of their game which is going so successfully. Throw in a corner trap or two out of the 1-3-1.

Give Godwin and Hueitt more minutes in those zones and let them see if they can hit some 3's to attempt to get ODU back into the game. I like Xavier, but he doesn't seem any more ready to play than Godwin, or Hueitt considering they would bring more offense to the court. He seems tentative on his shots as if even he doesn't expect them to go in. He has a tendency to want to dribble too much, is often careless with it, and gets it knocked away or stolen. Defensively, I haven't seen anything all that special. It's not like he is getting a lot of steals, deflections, or constantly keeping his man in front of him. Bottom line, if ODU needs to play more zone for Jeff to feel comfortable with Godwin and Hueitt subbing into the game then play more zone. Yesterday that seemed like a good idea to try anyway for both ends of the court.

SOS is a participation trophy, as is RPI. I may be wrong here, but isn't it possible to beat Charlotte at home and lose RPI points? just as it's possible to lose to Duke on the road and gain points?
To me it's a what comes first, chicken or egg argument. In order to find the talent to beat better schools, you have to strat scheduling them on a regular basis in order to catch the attention of the talent. I'm wondering what 17 year old says to himself " Wow, ODU is 24-6 and beat a ton of nobody's, I want to play there!" as opposed to a kid saying " ODU lost to a bunch of really good teams, I could help them win".
I'm not sure, but I want a kid who thinks he can elevate a program, not just feel good about beating nobodys.

So, my feeling is you start scheduling tough, the talent will follow. Of course, this all assumes you've got a decent head coach capable of pulling it off, which I don't think we have.

BT had the right attitude. He scheduled tough and it paid off.
02-25-2018 11:51 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Prideofalion Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 227
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 5
I Root For: ODU
Location:
Post: #19
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
Best night of the year for Razor. He’d been waiting all season for a blowout. He was clearly up till 3 in the morning... I picture a fat kid at his computer looking at the latest RPI stats screaming at his mother for more hot pockets... lol
02-25-2018 11:58 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Old Dominion Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,249
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 114
I Root For: Old Dominion
Location: Almost six feet deep
Post: #20
RE: 22-6.........or why numbers are deceiving
(02-25-2018 11:58 AM)Prideofalion Wrote:  Best night of the year for Razor. He’d been waiting all season for a blowout. He was clearly up till 3 in the morning... I picture a fat kid at his computer looking at the latest RPI stats screaming at his mother for more hot pockets... lol

Great line! can I use it?
02-25-2018 11:59 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2018 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2018 MyBB Group.