https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...r=american


Conference...(Bids)
Sec.................(7.4)
ACC................(7.0)
Big Xii ............(5.5)
Big East..........(5.4)
Big 1G.............(4.7)
PAC 12............(3.9)
American........(3.8)
WCC ...............(2.1)
MWC...............(2.0)
Atlantic 10......(1.9)
C-USA..............(1.9)

At large chances (predicted record) <seed>[S curve]

Cincinnati 100%... (27-5).......<1.9>........[4]
Wichita 100%....... (23-7).......<4.6>........[14]
Houston 100%..... (24-6)........<4.9>.......[17]
Temple 61%......... (17-13) .....<10.1>.....[45]
UCF 10% .............. (18-12) .....<11.6>
SMU 8% ................(18-13) .....<11.1>
Tulsa 2%............... (18-12)......<11.7>

Cincy would be the fourth 1 seed
WSU would be the second 4 seed
Houston would be the first 5 seed

Other conferences not listed only have a handful of bid stealers possible if there is an upset in a conference tourny.

AAC teams not listed are predicted to have 0% chance at an at large.

FWIW an unbiased analytics site like teamrankings is generally going to overvalue the AAC compared to the committee. harsh reality. Probably best evidenced by houston being at 4.9 and cincy being 4th overall, they were just 8th overall in the reveal before this houston loss.

90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

it's 61% for Temple if they win only 17 games. If they win on Sunday and win out, that number will go way up.

UConn CIT chances - 0%

(02-16-2018 02:42 PM)Doglando Wrote:  FWIW an unbiased analytics site like teamrankings is generally going to overvalue the AAC compared to the committee. harsh reality. Probably best evidenced by houston being at 4.9 and cincy being 4th overall, they were just 8th overall in the reveal before this houston loss.

I think so too, although Cincy has moved up in RPI a ways since then. More telling is they were a 1.9 seed average making me think a 2 seed is most likely. Houston needed the rpi boost from the Cincy win to advance it's seed. A five seems about right though a four or six are possible.

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

We’re hoping for an NIT home game which we should have a shot at if we just win the games we should from here on out which would result in a fourth place finish. To get an NCAA bid we would have to (a) win the conference tourney for the autobid (22-11 with Cincy loss) or (b) win out until the tourney finals and hope for an at-large (22-11 with win in Cincy and loss in finals). I don’t feel good about either scenario.

No one talks about us because most on here want to do nothing but smack talk. Most of the Tulsa fan base only wants to talk basketball without bashing the other teams so we just read and don’t post or start threads about how great we are. When the preseason picks came out I said that 9th place was too low and I expected TU to finish in the top half of the conference, there were no discussions about how we had improved from last year just a bunch of dismissive (tulsane) crap so I just dropped out of those discussions.

I’ve never understood deriding the team you just beat (or who just beat you) and saying how horrible they are. If they’re horrible then what does that make us?

(02-16-2018 02:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  it's 61% for Temple if they win only 17 games. If they win on Sunday and win out, that number will go way up.

Since before their game against Wichita it's all been about 18. That's the line, 17 depends on the bubble, but 18 and they are in. Finishing top half of the conference puts them in an ideal position 17 or 18 wins going into conference tourny and an opening game they should be favored to win.

(02-16-2018 03:35 PM)Nevadanatural Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

We’re hoping for an NIT home game which we should have a shot at if we just win the games we should from here on out which would result in a fourth place finish. To get an NCAA bid we would have to (a) win the conference tourney for the autobid (22-11 with Cincy loss) or (b) win out until the tourney finals and hope for an at-large (22-11 with win in Cincy and loss in finals). I don’t feel good about either scenario.

No one talks about us because most on here want to do nothing but smack talk. Most of the Tulsa fan base only wants to talk basketball without bashing the other teams so we just read and don’t post or start threads about how great we are. When the preseason picks came out I said that 9th place was too low and I expected TU to finish in the top half of the conference, there were no discussions about how we had improved from last year just a bunch of dismissive (tulsane) crap so I just dropped out of those discussions.

I’ve never understood deriding the team you just beat (or who just beat you) and saying how horrible they are. If they’re horrible then what does that make us?

Yup NIT looking very good for Tulsa and 20 wins coming out of the tournament is very possible

9th was way too low. I thought Magnay leaving and the improved league put us around sixth. We have slightly exceeded my expectations although I expected NIT/bubble. No bubble, Lamar loss is killing our rpi.

I thought invisible hand was a little gold colored glasses with his 3rd prediction but it is very possible we finish only one game behind that. I expect next year for Tulsa to be on the level we expect for the program Tourny team (barring injuries).

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

If Temple wins out and someone other than them, Wichita, Cincy or Houston (presuming they take care of business) wins the AAC, that's 5 bids.

(02-16-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

If Temple wins out and someone other than them, Wichita, Cincy or Houston (presuming they take care of business) wins the AAC, that's 5 bids.

Yup and a stumble here or there and Co|d will get the big pee prediction right. 5 bids for each league is possible.

This conference is going to be a monster when UConn is back to normal and Memphis is hitting on all cylinders. If we get USF and ECU inside the top 200 and more than half the conference could be in the tournament.

(02-16-2018 03:42 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 03:35 PM)Nevadanatural Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

We’re hoping for an NIT home game which we should have a shot at if we just win the games we should from here on out which would result in a fourth place finish. To get an NCAA bid we would have to (a) win the conference tourney for the autobid (22-11 with Cincy loss) or (b) win out until the tourney finals and hope for an at-large (22-11 with win in Cincy and loss in finals). I don’t feel good about either scenario.

No one talks about us because most on here want to do nothing but smack talk. Most of the Tulsa fan base only wants to talk basketball without bashing the other teams so we just read and don’t post or start threads about how great we are. When the preseason picks came out I said that 9th place was too low and I expected TU to finish in the top half of the conference, there were no discussions about how we had improved from last year just a bunch of dismissive (tulsane) crap so I just dropped out of those discussions.

I’ve never understood deriding the team you just beat (or who just beat you) and saying how horrible they are. If they’re horrible then what does that make us?

Yup NIT looking very good for Tulsa and 20 wins coming out of the tournament is very possible

9th was way too low. I thought Magnay leaving and the improved league put us around sixth. We have slightly exceeded my expectations although I expected NIT/bubble. No bubble, Lamar loss is killing our rpi.

I thought invisible hand was a little gold colored glasses with his 3rd prediction but it is very possible we finish only one game behind that. I expect next year for Tulsa to be on the level we expect for the program Tourny team (barring injuries).

Going into the season I was figuring .500 team on the low side, and NIT team on the high side. Fortunately we're on the high side now.

(02-16-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

If Temple wins out and someone other than them, Wichita, Cincy or Houston (presuming they take care of business) wins the AAC Tournament, that's 5 bids.

That could be UConn's role.


T


...

(02-16-2018 04:09 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

If Temple wins out and someone other than them, Wichita, Cincy or Houston (presuming they take care of business) wins the AAC Tournament, that's 5 bids.

That could be UConn's role.


T


...

UCONN has no business doing that. It would absolutely tank our seeding in the NCAA's. I would hope for someone like SMU to get Shake back and go on a run; or for Tulsa to get some upsets (although that would also tank Cincy and WSU's seeding but it would be fun for us)

My prediction about 3rd place was a sliver off. But I did predict we would finish in front of a team like SMU or UCF. Also I predicted WSU would have 5 conference losses which looks like it very well may come to pass.

(02-16-2018 04:20 PM)invisiblehand Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 04:09 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

If Temple wins out and someone other than them, Wichita, Cincy or Houston (presuming they take care of business) wins the AAC Tournament, that's 5 bids.

That could be UConn's role.


T


...

UCONN has no business doing that. It would absolutely tank our seeding in the NCAA's. I would hope for someone like SMU to get Shake back and go on a run; or for Tulsa to get some upsets (although that would also tank Cincy and WSU's seeding but it would be fun for us)

My prediction about 3rd place was a sliver off. But I did predict we would finish in front of a team like SMU or UCF. Also I predicted WSU would have 5 conference losses which looks like it very well may come to pass.

I didn't even think of the seeding damage. For some reason I was imagining the conference tournament in a vacuum. Friday brain fail.

UConn and Memphis may now go off to die in the wilderness until next year when UConn will have a brand new coach and Memphis will have brand new recruits + a fired up Tubby.


T


...

(02-16-2018 04:20 PM)invisiblehand Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 04:09 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

If Temple wins out and someone other than them, Wichita, Cincy or Houston (presuming they take care of business) wins the AAC Tournament, that's 5 bids.

That could be UConn's role.


T


...

UCONN has no business doing that. It would absolutely tank our seeding in the NCAA's. I would hope for someone like SMU to get Shake back and go on a run; or for Tulsa to get some upsets (although that would also tank Cincy and WSU's seeding but it would be fun for us)

My prediction about 3rd place was a sliver off. But I did predict we would finish in front of a team like SMU or UCF. Also I predicted WSU would have 5 conference losses which looks like it very well may come to pass.

Are you actually attempting to take credit for predicting finishing ahead of teams decimated by injuries. woof

(02-16-2018 04:20 PM)invisiblehand Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 04:09 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(02-16-2018 02:46 PM)LetsGoUC Wrote:  90% chance AAC ends up with 3 bids.
I can see 2 if wichita or houston completely implode (they wont)
I can see 4 if Temple gets to 20 wins in any way (they have great metrics and SOS)

What's up with Tulsa? Sneaky 15 wins. Do their fans have any postseason expectations? Out of the 12 AAC teams I think about Tulsa the absolute least. No one talks about them.

If Temple wins out and someone other than them, Wichita, Cincy or Houston (presuming they take care of business) wins the AAC Tournament, that's 5 bids.

That could be UConn's role.


T


...

UCONN has no business doing that. It would absolutely tank our seeding in the NCAA's. I would hope for someone like SMU to get Shake back and go on a run; or for Tulsa to get some upsets (although that would also tank Cincy and WSU's seeding but it would be fun for us)

My prediction about 3rd place was a sliver off. But I did predict we would finish in front of a team like SMU or UCF. Also I predicted WSU would have 5 conference losses which looks like it very well may come to pass.

never count UConn out in tourney's no matter how bad they are

Shake coming back and SMU going on a run or UCF getting hot would be ideal for the fifth. They wouldn't kill seeding as the committee take into consideration injuries. As much as they both have suffered a hot run would be rewarded.

Anyone else will effect seeding. Temple upsetting two of the top 3 and losing to a fifth bid would also be a solid out come. Would cinch Temple's resume, they are high enough in the metrics not to hurt as a loss for Cincy, Houston, or WSU.

Perfect alignment would be SMU over Temple for championship, gives the AAC most teams with highest seeds. Not holding my breath for it though.

Temple is on the cusp of a bid, but they may need defeats by other contenders to clear the hurtle.

ECU is gonna win the tourney and make the AAC a one bid league. Suck it.