(02-13-2018 03:15 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: The decline began after 2010, and basically was masked by the SEC continuing to rise until it peaked in 2015. But now it too is declining. Overall drop has been 10.4% since 2010, the SEC is down 4.7% from it's peak in just two years. (I use peak /current to get drop, Dodd gets a smaller 3.7% SEC drop by using the other ratio current/peak)
The factors are many, but the playoff is not one, at least not in the sense Cutter means. They are part of the issue in the sense that the shift in value of college went from traditional regular season rivalries to pro sports like championship. Beating your cross State rival fell more into the category of consolation prize, rather than raison d'ĂȘtre for football fans. Bowl games below the Championship became "exhibition" games. But this is all tactical, not the root of the problem.
And I don't think the decline is as abrupt or permanent as this year's numbers may seem to project and here's why. This year the SEC experienced a 3.2% decline. That's steep. But upon digging into the individual numbers Tennessee, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Florida accounted for annual declines of 6, 6, 3, and 3 thousand all amid coaching failures and imminent change. Considering that Tennessee dropped 6 thousand in a stadium that seats over a 100,000 it tends to skew the numbers a bit.
In 2015 the SEC set a single season attendance high. The SEC would have topped that number in 2016 except for a drop in attendance at Missouri of over 20%. We finished down for last year but barely down off of our record.
Since the SEC is the attendance leader year in and year out the perfect storm of coaching turnover coupled with the Ole Miss fiasco (another 3 + down) and the fact that Missouri remained flat with last year's all time low (attributed to campus unrest and player's threatened boycotts), I would expect to see numbers bump back up at most of these schools next year.
We will reach a new high? Probably not. Even after factoring in the coaching failures and poor seasons that some of the schools with larger venues experienced, there was still an undercurrent of between .5% and 1.5% at some schools that seem to reflect more economy and convenience related issues. Truly HD TV and a more pleasurable and less stressing home watching game day experience is making inroads into attendance everywhere including the SEC.
The Big 10 had a great season this year as a whole and were the only conference to finish on the plus side of the ledger and their attendance was only up .002% from an average increase of 76 for home games.
So I agree with you Stugray, it's not really attributable to many of the causes cited. And the fact that the SEC had 6 schools 5 of which were experiencing a coaching issue or probation contributing to the numbers I think they were skewed a tad.
I think the real issues are: Local program issues like coaching changes, the economy, and a growing realization of how much more convenient and stress free home game experiences can be that really contribute to this drop.